Howard trade grades: Drop'em here!

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• Was Tuesday night's deal the start of Atlanta's rebuild or more indicative of Dwight Howard's rapid decline in value?

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BEN GOLLIVER

Wednesday June 21st, 2017

It’s officially “grand opening, grand closing” on the Dwight Howard era in Atlanta.

The Hawks have traded Howard and the No. 31 pick in Thursday’s draft to the Hornets in exchange for center Miles Plumlee, guard Marco Belinelli and the No. 41 pick. There’s no kind way to put this: the return package for Howard, an eight-time All-Star and three-time Defensive Player of the Year, is shockingly weak. Atlanta’s willingness to deal him less than one year after signing him as a free agent only further elucidates Howard’s fall from being one of the league’s top players to one with limited trade value.

Let’s grade the trade.

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Hawks: D+

Atlanta’s strategy in recent years has been to do its best to keep rolling along with respectable seasons in the face of serious roster turnover. Initially, Howard fit that plan perfectly, serving as a fallback option when Al Horford bolted for Boston and helping Atlanta reach the playoffs for the 10^th straight season. But the Hawks hired new GM Travis Schlenk last month, and he clearly concluded that a 31-year-old center with a history of injury issues, personality conflicts and an over-inflated sense of his offensive worth, and who is owed $47 million combined over the next two seasons, was not a key piece of Atlanta’s long-term plan.

That’s a very reasonable conclusion. After all, All-Star forward Paul Millsap might bolt in free agency, and the Hawks’ other key players (Dennis Schröder, Kent Bazemore, Taurean Prince and others) are far younger than Howard, who is now at least five seasons removed from his prime. There’s also the matter of coach Mike Budenholzer’s decision to cut Howard’s role in the playoffs, especially late in games. Generally speaking, if a team’s highest-paid player can’t stay on the court during crunch time in the postseason he should be considered fully available in trade talks.

 

But there’s a difference between “fully available” and “worth ditching him no matter what, even if it means taking back one of the worst values in the league and moving back in the draft order.” In return for shedding Howard’s salary, Atlanta has agreed to take on Plumlee, who averaged just 2.5 points and 2.1 rebounds in less than 500 minutes last season. Sure, Howard was expensive and a weird fit, but he did average 13.5 PPG and 12.7 RPG while playing big minutes for a top-five defense. Plumlee’s claim to fame–in all seriousness–is that his “untradeable” contract has now been traded twice in less than six months. While the first year of Plumlee’s preposterous four-year, $50 million contract is now complete, the Hawks will still be paying him through 2019-20. And don’t even try to get excited about a change of scenery: Plumlee is 28 and on his fifth team. The scenery isn’t the issue.

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By exchanging Howard’s salary for Plumlee’s and Belinelli’s, Atlanta will save roughly $4 million in payroll for next year. If Millsap leaves this summer, those savings will only serve to make the Hawks a cheaper bad team. If Millsap stays, it remains to be seen how the Hawks plan to fill their center minutes and fill out a rotation that’s lacking in difference-makers. Are they really going to do better than landing Howard in free agency after years of failed pursuits and little assembled talent to sell to prospective signees?

In sum, Atlanta traded out an expensive impact player for an expensive non-impact player, it dropped 10 spots in the draft order, it took on an extra year of eight-figure commitments to Plumlee, and it created a hole in the middle. There’s definitely value in being free of Howard’s moodiness and offensive fit issues, but not that much value. Millsap should run away to a real contender as quickly as possible and not look back.

 

 

 

Getty Images

Charlotte: B

The Hornets were so desperate for interior help that they traded for Plumlee and his $50 million deal back in February. To then flip Plumlee for Howard, who has ties with Hornets coach Steve Clifford dating back to their shared time with the Magic, counts as a win. Clifford has designed elite inside-out defenses in the past, he should be able to coax the most effective possible play out of Howard, and he should have the luxury of scaling back Howard’s minutes to ensure his energy and activity levels remain as high as possible.

But it’s never quite that simple with Howard, whose career has been totally derailed over the last half-decade. Charlotte will mark his fifth team since 2012, and he has quickly worn out his welcome at virtually every stop. The trickiest part of acclimating Howard will be determining his proper role relative to Cody Zeller. Last season, the Hornets were excellent with Zeller on the court (+5.4 net rating) and dreadful without him (-3.6), and deploying Zeller as a starting stretch five was a reliable winner.

 

Enter Howard, who is older, more experienced, and more physical than Zeller while earning nearly twice as much as his new teammate. In an ideal world, Howard would embrace a back-up role and enjoy easier match-ups with overmatched second-unit opponents. But is he ready for that? Clifford could try to bridge the gap by starting Howard and Zeller together, but that would inevitably compromise the precious spacing that has helped fuel Charlotte’s improved offense over the past two seasons. Remember, Zeller is comfortable moving around on the perimeter but he lacks three-point range, making him a far better fit as a stretch five than a stretch four.

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Taking on Howard’s contract isn’t a major concern for the Hornets, who generally struggle to compete for impact free agents and are ostensibly in “win now” mode after making meaningful contractual commitments to Kemba Walker, Nicolas Batum, Marvin Williams and Zeller in recent years. Howard’s presence should add a level of stability to Charlotte’s frontline if injury issues resurface, and that alone could be enough to bump the Hornets back into the East’s playoff picture given how dismally they fared without Zeller last season. Meanwhile, losing Belinelli is a forgettable footnote, as Charlotte played virtually identically with and without him last year.

If Clifford can’t pull quality contributions from Howard or if they don’t see eye-to-eye on fit and role issues, the NBA internet may well be back here again next year dissecting Charlotte’s decision to ship out Howard’s expiring contract. In the meantime, let’s give a polite golf clap to Hornets GM Rich Cho for the draft pick swap, which amounts to a cherry on top.

[Bankingitbig]

This guy doesn't know what he is talking about if he considered Howard to be a backup plan for the Hawks when losing Horford... Considering Howard was signed prior to us knowing that we would lose Horford.

Anyways.. I think his D+ grade is a very short sighted grade without looking at the longer-term implications.

I would grade the trade as a C+/B- with upside if we can get an asset for Belinelli at the deadline.

Edited June 21, 2017 by Bankingitbig

[Vol4ever]

I will give the trade a "D."    

I understand why the Hawks did it though.  Bud wants 7-0 shooting guards at the 5.  

[sturt]

I don't know enough about CHA to offer anything, and I just don't have the appetite to go figure it out.

Put me down for an "incomplete" where ATL is concerned... an "I".

In Utopia, we wouldn't have to take back a bad contract. In Utopia, we'd actually have been able to make a legitimate straight-up basketball trade.

So, it's not the best possible trade, and if we opened the season tomorrow, it would be a pretty damning trade... I'd even call it a D if that were the case.

But it's not that way, but rather, it's the first shoe to drop that then allows other shoes to potentially drop.

Depending on how those shoes drop, this could be as high as an A, but more likely a B, and trying to be completely objective, most probably a C.

[AHF]

Kevin Pelton ESPN Staff Writer

The deal

Hornets get: Center Dwight Howard, No. 31 pick in 2017 draft

Hawks get: Guard Marco Belinelli, center Miles Plumlee, No. 41 pick in 2017 draft

 

---

Atlanta Hawks: D

That the Hawks would be interested in moving Howard less than a year after signing him makes sense. Atlanta's preseason excitement about adding more interior presence to an offense that had been perimeter-oriented with Al Horford at center proved short-lived. Howard was mostly in the way on offense, to the point that he played just 17 total fourth-quarter minutes in the Hawks' six-game, first-round playoff loss to the Washington Wizards.

Above and beyond that, Atlanta's direction as a franchise appears to have shifted after the arrival of new GM Travis Schlenk, who recently expressed skepticism about the Hawks' chances of re-signing All-Star power forward Paul Millsap -- a departure that would almost certainly send Atlanta into a rebuilding process. At age 31, Howard doesn't fit into that.

My expectation was that the Hawks could deal Howard for something close to cap relief, as ESPN's Kevin Arnovitz suggested as a best-case scenario on Twitter after the season. Clearly, that market didn't materialize, because this trade is far worse than cap-neutral for Atlanta. Plumlee's contract, with three years and $37.5 million remaining, is among the league's worst deals.

On the plus side, the Hawks do realize modest cap savings of $3.4 million this coming season and about $11.3 million in 2018-19. But that's offset by the fact that Plumlee's contract runs a year longer than Howard's, meaning an extra $12.5 million on Atlanta's 2019-20 payroll.

In contrast to Howard's offensive issues, he remains a useful player because of his strong paint defense and rebounding. (Early in the season, he seemed more comfortable coming out high to defend the pick-and-roll. Whether due to an injury or normal wear and tear, this skill faded by the postseason and was one of the reasons Howard struggled against the Wizards.)

Based on Howard's wins above replacement player (WARP) and rating in ESPN's real plus-minus (RPM), I project him as about fairly paid next season and a little overpaid in 2018-19. By contrast, Plumlee brings little on-court value. After falling out of the Milwaukee Bucks' center rotation last season before he was traded to Charlotte, I project him right around replacement level for the remainder of his contract, meaning he'll be paid in excess of $35 million more than he's worth over the next three seasons.

So since the Hawks are taking on the worse contract and the worse players, why are they also trading down in the second round?

If Atlanta was so desperate to be rid of Howard, the Hawks probably would have been better off telling him not to report next season and wait out his contract rather than make this trade. Maybe no market ever would have materialized for Howard's services, but at least his deal ended a year sooner than Plumlee's.

---

Charlotte Hornets: A-

If anyone can get something special out of Howard at this stage of his career, it's probably Hornets coach Steve Clifford.

Clifford was an assistant with the Orlando Magic when Howard was at the peak of his powers -- and it's easy now to forget just how dominant Howard once was -- and Clifford's system is similar to the one in which Howard excelled for former Magic coach Stan Van Gundy.

In particular, Clifford's defense relies on dominating the defensive glass (a strength for Howard) and preventing easy baskets in the paint (that too) with a willingness to concede midrange scoring opportunities (and stopping those is Howard's biggest defensive weakness).

Charlotte struggled to execute that scheme last season when starting center Cody Zeller was off the court. When Zeller played, the Hornets' 102.7 defensive rating per NBA.com/Stats would have tied for third in the league with the Utah Jazz. When Zeller sat, that increased to 108.6, which would have ranked 24th. Adding Howard to Zeller should ensure Charlotte 48 strong minutes of defense at center.

The trick here will be whether 48 minutes are enough for Howard and Zeller. Though Zeller began his career as a power forward, he has proved to be more effective as a center, and a frontcourt pairing with both players probably wouldn't space the floor well enough to succeed offensively.

From a resource standpoint, paying two centers who probably can't play together a combined $36 million next season and $37 million in 2018-19 isn't ideal. However, the Hornets should be able to manage things financially if they're careful. None of their core players is due for a raise until the summer of 2019, when Kemba Walker's bargain contract ($12 million for each of the next two years, one of the league's best values) and Frank Kaminsky's rookie contract expire. By that point, Charlotte will actually save money with this swap of Plumlee (who would still be making $12.5 million) for Howard, whose contract expires in 2019.

Taking on a little extra salary does make things tight with the luxury tax this year. Assuming the Hornets decline Ramon Sessions' team option, they'll have about $9 million to spend on the last six spots on the roster -- including, potentially, the non-guaranteed contracts of Treveon Graham, Johnny O'Bryant and Briante Weber. Charlotte likely won't be able to spend its full non-taxpayer midlevel exception.

At the same time, Charlotte's core eight-player rotation looks strong, and moving up to No. 31 in the draft improves the Hornets' chances of being able to draft a backup for Walker who can replace Sessions right away.

Charlotte posted a better point differential than three East playoff teams (including Atlanta) last season and went 33-29 when Zeller was healthy (3-17 without him). So the Hornets already looked like a good bet to return to the playoffs next season. Adding Howard should improve their chances substantially.

[Guest]

Do we have to do this?  None of these guys pay enough attention to the Hawks to truly offer anything really insightful.

Look at it like this, Sekou understands the trade.  It falls in the 'it is what it is' category.  There is no "liking" the trade so what do the grades even mean?

[Peoriabird]

This trade gets an "F-". I am already worried about this new GM. That trade made absolutely no sense.

[Sothron]

The experts are right on this. We got completely hosed. The fact we even moved DOWN in the draft while taking on the worst contract in the NBA is just mind boggling stupid.

Our new GM has dug himself a deep grave. I hope he can find a way out of it.

[Sothron]

1 minute ago, kg01 said:

Do we have to do this?  None of these guys pay enough attention to the Hawks to truly offer anything really insightful.

Look at it like this, Sekou understands the trade.  It falls in the 'it is what it is' category.  There is no "liking" the trade so what do the grades even mean?

You don't make bad trades just to move a guy. Now we're stuck with Plumless on the worst contract in the NBA. And did I mention going ten spots DOWN in the draft?

[AHF]

 James Herbert - CBS Sportsline

 

Dwight Howard's value isn't what it used to be. The Hawks sent Howard, who has two years and $47.3 million left on his contract, to the Charlotte Hornets in exchange for a couple of role players, per The Vertical's Adrian Wojnarowski. This shouldn't be shocking after Howard complained about his role at the end of the season, but it's still a little weird to see his name involved in a deal like this -- just a few years ago, he was an MVP candidate. Let's grade the trade. 

Charlotte Hornets

Hornets receive Dwight Howard, No. 31 pick

This could be a steal. In terms of talent, it's obvious which team "won" the trade. Charlotte was inconsistent on defense last season, and this will give coach Steve Clifford his first real rim protector since Bismack Biyombo was around, unless you count the 2016-17 version of Roy Hibbert who played 42 games for the Hornets.

Thanks to his reputation and Atlanta's overall uninspiring play, Howard was a bit underrated as a Hawk. He transformed the team's defense and the team went from an awful rebounding team to an elite one when he was on the court. There is no reason he cannot help the Hornets in those same areas. Other reasons for optimism: he has a relationship with Clifford dating back to his time as an assistant coach with the Orlando Magic and the Los Angeles Lakers, and while Charlotte is taking on more salary in the short term, it will get cap relief in 2019. The jump from No. 41 to No. 31 is nice, too. 

 

It would be crazy, though, to not acknowledge the many, many questions that come along with this. What will happen to the Hornets' offense with Howard in the fold? Will he demand touches in the post or be OK with mainly setting picks, diving to the rim and doing dirty work? What about transition defense? Is he seriously going to start shooting 3-pointers? Howard isn't exactly seen as an inspiring leader, and Charlotte is making a big bet that Clifford will be able to get the best out of him. This is not an easy job -- most ex-superstars are not as simple to manage as someone like Vince Carter, and Howard seems to believe he's still capable of being dominant if he was just put in the right situation.

This is a good situation for Howard, but I'm not sure that means he'll be dominant. The game has changed since his days as an All-NBA player, and he has lost a couple of steps athletically. If the Hornets are able to integrate him into their system successfully on both ends of the floor, then they will have done something that the Houston Rockets and the Hawks -- two pretty smart organizations -- couldn't do in the last couple of seasons. 

Grade: B

Atlanta Hawks

Hawks receive Miles Plumlee, Marco Belinelli, No. 41 pick

 

It's not great that they had to slide down 10 picks in the draft. It's not great that Plumlee will still be making $12.5 million in 2019-20. That said, I actually like it. As great as Howard was defensively during the regular season, he actively harmed his team in the playoffs against the Washington Wizards, damaging the Hawks' spacing on offense and transition defense. He pouted when coach Mike Budenholzer elected to go small, but it's possible that Atlanta might have actually gotten out of the first round had the Hawks done that more often. After that, the Hawks were never going to get a bunch of good assets in return for him. 

This makes the decision to sign Howard last summer look terrible, but part of bringing in a new front office is about not being attached to previous moves that didn't work like the organization hoped. It is new general manager Travis Schlenk's responsibility to make difficult decisions like this, and it makes a ton of sense when you consider that Howard is 31 years old and the franchise is nowhere near a contender. 

Plumlee, who turns 29 in September, will not be able to anchor the defense like Howard, but he will at least play within his role as a lob target and a rebounder. He is also known for running the floor hard, which is a plus. Belinelli is likely in this deal mostly because he's on an expiring contract next season, but the former Spurs guard should fit perfectly in Budenholzer's system. The move also clears a bit of cap space this summer.

In the bigger picture, trading Howard puts Atlanta firmly in rebuilding mode, which should have been obvious the moment that Schlenk acknowledged another team could outbid the Hawks for Paul Millsap's services this summer. If Millsap leaves, then the entire starting five from the magical, 60-win 2014-15 team will be gone, leaving Schlenk's front office to assemble something from scratch. Atlanta might not finish with a .500 record this season, but it could end up being more fun to watch than the 43-win 2016-17 team. In terms of recapturing the ball movement and spread offense that defined Budenholzer's Hawks, this is addition by subtraction.

Grade: B+

[Guest]

4 minutes ago, Sothron said:

You don't make bad trades just to move a guy. Now we're stuck with Plumless on the worst contract in the NBA. And did I mention going ten spots DOWN in the draft?

First, I am in no way shape or form defending the trade.  I don't like it but I'm willing to hold off on lambasting it because I assume there's more coming that could make the trade make more sense.  That is my hope anyway.

Second, Plumlee's contract has been traded twice now so it's not the albatross folks are thinking it is.

I do hate moving down in the draft but, like I said, there has to be more coming.

Grade is TBD in my book.

[AHF]

1 minute ago, kg01 said:

Second, Plumlee's contract has been traded twice now so it's not the albatross folks are thinking it is.

It is a movable toxic asset.  We'll have to give up more value to another team to get them to take it.

Apparently, Schlenk thought that keeping Dwight was worse.   I think that is likely because he decided Dwight was not part of the long-term picture and keeping him would have forced us to win more games when Schlenk's current viewpoint is:  "I don't need me no Bobby Sura 2.0."

[Sothron]

Just now, kg01 said:

First, I am in no way shape or form defending the trade.  I don't like it but I'm willing to hold off on lambasting it because I assume there's more coming that could make the trade make more sense.  That is my hope anyway.

Second, Plumlee's contract has been traded twice now so it's not the albatross folks are thinking it is.

I do hate moving down in the draft but, like I said, there has to be more coming.

Grade is TBD in my book.

I understand that but you have to judge a trade based on the merits at the time the trade was made. What if that is the only trade we do? What would you judge it then?

[NBASupes]

Hornets: C-, Dwight sucks, but that 31st is valued.

 

Hawks: B-, Dwight was a mistake but at least y out were able to trade him. Belinelli has value but Plumlee is a waste. Trading 31 was silly

[Guest]

4 minutes ago, Sothron said:

I understand that but you have to judge a trade based on the merits at the time the trade was made. What if that is the only trade we do? What would you judge it then?

It's too soon, soth.  I highly doubt this is the only thing we do.  There's no need to "judge" right now.

Relags, man.

[Peoriabird]

What's next..Baze plus #19 pick for Boris Diaw and cash considerations?

[Guest]

 

[JTB]

Again I'm going to wait before I actually giving an opinion on all of this. There's obviously more moves to come! Am I a bet worried? Yes...the trade doesn't make sense to me for 2 reasons.

1. We only freed up an extra 5m and took on a contract worst than Howard's 

2. We gave up a draft pick and moved back 10 spots

 

im worried like many but more moves are coming.

[HawkItus]

My analysis of Howard trade: It was about locker room not court

 

• Chris Vivlamore

June 21, 2017  AJC Sports, ajc-sports.ajc, alert, Atlanta Hawks.

 

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The Atlanta Hawks’ Dwight Howard squeezes the ball before the start of play against the Miami Heat at AmericanAirlines Arena in Miami on Wednesday, Feb. 1, 2017. (David Santiago/Miami Herald/TNS)

Dwight Howard didn’t change.

The Atlanta native is no longer a member of the Hawks. The former eight All-Star and three-time NBA Defensive Player of the Year did little about a reputation that far preceded him when he arrived back home. Howard will play for his fifth team since he left the Magic in 2012 after he was traded to the Hornets Tuesday in a move that ended his homecoming after just one season.

Simply, in my opinion, the Hawks couldn’t have Howard in their locker room any longer. Not with a nucleus of young impressionable players. Not with a room becoming devoid of veteran leaders such as Al Horford, Kyle Korver and, now perhaps, Paul Millsap.

It’s easy to look at the trade on a contract-by-contract basis. I believe there was more to it.

 

Howard’s previous issues were well-documented – with Stan Van Gundy with the Magic, with Kobe Bryant with the Lakers, with James Harden with the Rockets. Current Hornets coach Steve Clifford was on the Magic staff with Howard. He may well know the issues before him now.

Howard’s issue in Atlanta were becoming more and more well-documented. Consider:

* He was assessed a Flagrant Foul 2 and ejected in a game at the Hornets in November. The Hawks were winning but the Hornets went on a game-winning run after the incident. Howard didn’t get the backing of coach Mike Budenholzer or teammates.

* Howard had to be restrained from going into the stands after a heckler after a loss at the Lakers in November.

* Howard and several players had tenuous relationships. Most notably, Dennis Schröder and Howard had an on-court quarrel that led to a wide-open 3-pointer by Stephen Curry in a loss to the Warriors in March. Schröder said he wanted to meet with Budenholzer and Howard to clear the air. Millsap had to step in as an intermediary to help Schröder.

* Howard loves attention. He got a lot of it at times when the television cameras and radio microphones were on him. However, Howard on several occasions declined to speak to the media after a loss, bad game or late-game benching. He left teammates to speak for him, something that did not go over well.

* The morning before the Hawks’ Game 6 playoff elimination loss to the Wizards, Howard was pulled over for speeding in Dunwoody. He was travelling at 95 miles per hour, in a 65 miles per hour zone, at 2:06 a.m. He was driving with a suspended registration and no insurance.

I don’t recount all this to portray Howard as a bad guy. We got along well for the most part. Heck, he taught me all about the ‘Cash me outside’ girl to much locker room laughter. He clearly held a grudge for my story on the infamous ‘Stickum’ incident when he was with the Rockets. He was cautious much of the time in dealing with the media.

I don’t believe Howard is a bad guy. His charitable works speak volumes. He may not be the player he once was but he still averaged 13 points and 13 rebounds last season. He can help a team now. He’ll be in the Hall of Fame one day. He wasn’t the best fit for the Hawks’ system, a mistake clear now with the benefit of hindsight.

There just wasn’t a place in the Hawks locker room for negative influence. Especially not with a team building for the future with a nucleus of young players.

It appears with a new general manager the first move was to move Howard. A lot of people will look at the trade as a big loss for the Hawks. And they did give up a lot. They brought back a bad contract in Miles Plumlee, who will make $12.4 million for the next three seasons despite averaging less than three points and three rebounds per game as a backup center. The Hawks slid back 10 spots in the second round of Thursday’s NBA Draft. They could have gotten a decent player at No. 31. Will they now at 41?

The Hawks had to know that any trade of Howard was not going to be favorable in the short term.

Plumlee did not have the best reputation in Charlotte. I’m told he was often “disinterested” and certainly didn’t live up to the contract he got when with the Bucks. However, he won’t be a leader in the Hawks locker room. If Millsap leaves, Howard would easily have been the veteran presence. Plumlee has been traded three times in the past year. He could be traded again. His contract might be very valuable to match salary in another deal.

The Hawks also got Marco Belinelli in the trade. The guard is on an expiring contract at a reasonable $6.6 million. He could be traded again soon. He could be traded at the deadline for an asset, maybe even a first-rounder. He could help the Hawks off the bench as a known shooter.

Howard had a tearful introductory press conference last year on his return to Atlanta. The tears of joy didn’t last.

[CP61]

1 minute ago, JTB said:

Again I'm going to wait before I actually giving an opinion on all of this. There's obviously more moves to come! Am I a bet worried? Yes...the trade doesn't make sense to me for 2 reasons.

1. We only freed up an extra 5m and took on a contract worst than Howard's 

2. We gave up a draft pick and moved back 10 spots

 

im worried like many but more moves are coming.

I think it's clear that Dwight Howard was an actively hindering the Hawks from moving forward in whatever plans Schlenk has for the future. Obviously that's what everyone thinks of Dwight if that was the best offer the Hawks could get. I'm just happy to see him gone whatever it took to do it. He's cancer who leaves teams in ruins. The team is rebuilding and we couldn't let him be the leader in the locker room.