Ok Howard can officially lick ***

[Vol4ever]

Im sure Dedmon is gonna average 13/12 with no problem..........He will be a allstar and the best center we have ever had.....

[kurupt]

First off, I (and I don’t think anyone else) tries to or actually does blame Howard for all the teams shortcomings last season. In fact, I have stated several times that he fulfilled expectations – unfortunately also the “bad” ones, like not being able to see how he can be  better/more effective for this team (or others).

But I strongly disagree with the notion that giving him more touches/shots/post-ups would have been a positive. That notion is just demonstrably false by all accounts. The only way more shots for Dwight would have been an improvement would have been if he had played more P&R, but he didn’t. That’s on him and no one else.

vor 19 Stunden, Watchman sagte:

Not according to NBA.com.  He got 3.7 post possessions per game.  #20 in the league.

http://stats.nba.com/players/post-up/#!?sort=PossG&dir=1&CF=GP*GE*15&Season=2016-17&SeasonType=Regular Season

Well, if you only count post-ups as post touches. There is also other passes/plays that get him the ball in the paint/post.

You also cannot ignore that among players that received at least 2 post-ups per game, he was 7^th to last amongst 40 players. 2 players that got targeted at a similar frequency with as bad (or worse) efficiency were Whiteside and Drummond – also 2 players that lack the skills to be efficient down there.  He was literally one of the worst post-up players in the league and considering that, he got an awful lot of post-ups.

If you look at how often he got the ball in the post/paint, he is #1 in both:

http://stats.nba.com/players/paint-touch/#!?sort=PAINT_TOUCHES&dir=1&CF=PLAYER_NAME*E*&Season=2016-17&SeasonType=Regular%20Season

http://stats.nba.com/players/post-touch/#!?sort=POST_TOUCHES&dir=1

Again: if you wanted more pure post-ups, you are campaigning for more 0.84 points per possession offense. That is horrific. And even if you wanted just more post/paint touches, where he was slightly better (but still only league-average and sub-par compared starting Cs and PFs) – he already got a lot of those.

vor 54 Minuten, thecampster sagte:

yes, but a dump into the post isn't always a shot.  Many times that dump in is an immediately kick out to reset positioning, a cut off the big on the opposite side or a spot up 3.

The point is, tossing it in to Dwight in the post forces the Defense to move, to deal with a different threat.  Failing to do so limited the hawks to only one offensive play....Dennis ISO for the drive finishing with a score, turnover (often attributed to who he passed to, not his too deep drive and pass at the ankles), a Dennis miss or assist. Well more often than a missed Dwight post, the result of a Dennis ISO was a bad pass or missed layup. Mainly because the defense knew it was coming and had time to get set.

The point of the Dwight post is offensive set diversity. It isn't about Dwight scoring or not scoring. It is the number of good things that can happen when  defense has to collapse.

1. Dwight would have to be an actual scoring threat on post-ups to force a collapse. Which he isn't. See above.

2. Ideally you need shooters to compliment that style of play and the Hawks had basically not a single one (Muscala and Ilyasova being their best/most consistent shooters).

3. It is obvious that Howard in the P&R is the most lethal he can be offensivly. By a mile. He is elite at that (1.18 points per possession) but he did it with the frequence of some Guards settign screens and rolling to the basket...

Edited August 22, 2017 by kurupt

[AHF]

17 minutes ago, Vol4ever said:

Im sure Dedmon is gonna average 13/12 with no problem..........He will be a allstar and the best center we have ever had.....

Said no one.  Ever.

[Plainview1981]

2 hours ago, Diesel said:

Whether he wanted to stay or not is not the question.   The question is what did we do with him when we had him..  IMO, we misused him.   Now we want to point the finger at him and say... it's his fault that we misused him. 

 

You said " No, I don't care that he had a high FG%."...   See... this is the problem.  This is why people who follow basketball thinks that Atlanta have Numbnuts for fans.  You are willing to ignore that a guy can score at a high percentage... why???  IN the same breath, you try to justify not getting him the ball. 

He wasn't misused. He doesn't have it every night anymore. Some nights he looked good, but other nights he looked stiff and not so mobile. His last 3 stops mow have bombed for the most part. His high FG% doesn't make up for the turnovers, lack of ball movement and stagnant offense that he creates.

This happens to players who are athletic, but aren't overly skilled. 

Lastly, I don't care what other people think.

[Plainview1981]

2 hours ago, AHF said:

There is a combination of how he was used and how he failed to adapt to the role he was given.  He could have been a lot more successful if he had decided to make the best of it and screen hard and role hard to the basket.  He didn't do either of those and this isn't the first team that was frustrated by his unwillingness to do so.

On the FG%, you can't ignore a guy with that high a percentage but you also can't ignore how he got that %.  A guy who isn't super skilled is likely to see his efficiency and his FGA go in opposite directions because big men will have a baseline of super efficient clean up shots (grab an offense rebound and score like 70% of the time) and then layer on less efficient post up plays.  We've seen the numbers on Dwight before and he isn't elite on post-ups.  He is elite as a roller in the P&R and in the role that all big men who can rebound play - clean  up junk around the basket.  

It is because you are layering on less efficient shots onto the baseline of super efficient shots that you see a lot of big men decrease their fg% as their attempts go up.

Examples:

Hassan Whiteside

8.1 FGA, 62.8% FG%

9.3 FGA, 60.6% FG%

12.6 FGA, 55.7% FG%

 

Andre Drummand

Seasons with less than 10 FGA (or 10.6 FGA/36 or less):  61.8% FG%

Seasons with more than 10 FGA (or 13.6 FGA/36 or more):  52.2% FG%

 

Andrew Bogut

Among his seasons playing 33 or more games, his lowest 3 FG% seasons are his 3 highest FGA/36 and his 4 highest FG% seasons include his 3 lowest FGA/36.

 

Etc.

Dwight himself has seen his FGA decline each of the last 3 seasons and his FG% increase each of those seasons as well.  Should be expected that his FG% isn't a true reflection of what his efficiency would look like with more shots.  The real question then is what his efficiency is on those post up opportunities and whether that is a value add to the team or not.

This is basically it.

[Watchman]

49 minutes ago, Vol4ever said:

Im sure Dedmon is gonna average 13/12 with no problem..........He will be a allstar and the best center we have ever had.....

You are underestimating his performance.  Look for 20/15 at a minimum.

[AHF]

In Dedmon, we are getting a role player schooled in the Spurs system who supposedly has the foot speed and strength to be effective in both post and P&R defense.  While his FG% is amazing, the same limitations in his offense that mean that Dwight's doesn't scale up in attempts at a constant rate of efficiency mean that Dedmon can't be expected to maintain his .600%+ TS% the last two years if he increases his field goal attempts appreciably without expanding his skills.  He is a role player for a team in rebuilding.

I'll be happy if he plays solid D and really happy if he comes close to matching his .189 WS/48 from last season.  I don't think anyone should expect double digit scoring from him.  That is a bonus in the unlikely event it comes.

[Lurker]

4 hours ago, AHF said:

There is a combination of how he was used and how he failed to adapt to the role he was given.  He could have been a lot more successful if he had decided to make the best of it and screen hard and role hard to the basket.  He didn't do either of those and this isn't the first team that was frustrated by his unwillingness to do so.

On the FG%, you can't ignore a guy with that high a percentage but you also can't ignore how he got that %.  A guy who isn't super skilled is likely to see his efficiency and his FGA go in opposite directions because big men will have a baseline of super efficient clean up shots (grab an offense rebound and score like 70% of the time) and then layer on less efficient post up plays.  We've seen the numbers on Dwight before and he isn't elite on post-ups.  He is elite as a roller in the P&R and in the role that all big men who can rebound play - clean  up junk around the basket.  

It is because you are layering on less efficient shots onto the baseline of super efficient shots that you see a lot of big men decrease their fg% as their attempts go up.

Examples:

Hassan Whiteside

8.1 FGA, 62.8% FG%

9.3 FGA, 60.6% FG%

12.6 FGA, 55.7% FG%

 

Andre Drummand

Seasons with less than 10 FGA (or 10.6 FGA/36 or less):  61.8% FG%

Seasons with more than 10 FGA (or 13.6 FGA/36 or more):  52.2% FG%

 

Andrew Bogut

Among his seasons playing 33 or more games, his lowest 3 FG% seasons are his 3 highest FGA/36 and his 4 highest FG% seasons include his 3 lowest FGA/36.

 

Etc.

Dwight himself has seen his FGA decline each of the last 3 seasons and his FG% increase each of those seasons as well.  Should be expected that his FG% isn't a true reflection of what his efficiency would look like with more shots.  The real question then is what his efficiency is on those post up opportunities and whether that is a value add to the team or not.

This really is what should end the thread and end all Howard discussions, period. Correlation is not causation. A guy getting more shots is not going to make the same amount of FG%. The league doesn't treat him like a star and give him extra attention anymore. The Hawks are going to be bad, but losing Howard doesn't have much to do with it, losing Millsap has a LOT to do with it.

[Vol4ever]

5 hours ago, AHF said:

In Dedmon, we are getting a role player schooled in the Spurs system who supposedly has the foot speed and strength to be effective in both post and P&R defense.  While his FG% is amazing, the same limitations in his offense that mean that Dwight's doesn't scale up in attempts at a constant rate of efficiency mean that Dedmon can't be expected to maintain his .600%+ TS% the last two years if he increases his field goal attempts appreciably without expanding his skills.  He is a role player for a team in rebuilding.

I'll be happy if he plays solid D and really happy if he comes close to matching his .189 WS/48 from last season.  I don't think anyone should expect double digit scoring from him.  That is a bonus in the unlikely event it comes.

And so the excuses start....

[High5]

4 minutes ago, Vol4ever said:

And so the excuses start....

I'm not sure what you're getting at. Dedmon will be making less than 30% of what Howard makes next season. He's not meant to be a better player. 

That said, I'll be surprised if he doesn't clearly outperform that 30%. 

[Sothron]

On ‎8‎/‎18‎/‎2017 at 5:23 PM, thecampster said:

Sorry but I agree with him. The difference between Pop and Bud is that Pop molds his system to his talent. Bud tries to mold the talent to the system.  The system is only as good as the fit.  You take a hard rebounding, space absorbing big and put him in a system that needs space and gives up rebounds for quality shots.....they don't mix.

Completely agree with this. Dwight was consistently getting great low post position all last season for us. His reward? Nothing. He almost never got the ball except for wide open dunks or some hustle offensive boards for put backs. It was criminal how underused he was last season. Dwight has every reason to be  upset at how badly he was used.

[AHF]

12 hours ago, Vol4ever said:

And so the excuses start....

The excuses for a why a guy making $6M isn't expected to put up bigger numbers than a guy making $23.5M?  You cannot be serious.  When you are paid 4x as much, you better be delivering waaaaayyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyy more value - putting up much larger numbers, playing much better D...all those things.

[Diesel]

1 hour ago, AHF said:

The excuses for a why a guy making $6M isn't expected to put up bigger numbers than a guy making $23.5M?  You cannot be serious.  When you are paid 4x as much, you better be delivering waaaaayyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyy more value - putting up much larger numbers, playing much better D...all those things.

It's not about pay for play...  It's about this.  Dedmon has the same game as Dwight.  He will also undergo the same treatment as Dwight... i.e. ignored in the post.  Force to get offense on putbacks...   The excuses being made are not all abut Dedmon's ability but about how many here lack to see the true nature of the problem..  So let me go into my guess bag.

For Dwight it was he was too old and on the decline.  The game has moved away from his style. 

For Dedmon it will be... He is too inexperienced.  The game has moved away from his style.  (mark it).

EIther way, there will be an excuse given not to cover up Dedmon's production... but to ignore the true problem.

[AHF]

10 minutes ago, Diesel said:

It's not about pay for play...  It's about this.  Dedmon has the same game as Dwight.  He will also undergo the same treatment as Dwight... i.e. ignored in the post.  Force to get offense on putbacks...   The excuses being made are not all abut Dedmon's ability but about how many here lack to see the true nature of the problem..  So let me go into my guess bag.

For Dwight it was he was too old and on the decline.  The game has moved away from his style. 

For Dedmon it will be... He is too inexperienced.  The game has moved away from his style.  (mark it).

EIther way, there will be an excuse given not to cover up Dedmon's production... but to ignore the true problem.

I expect Dedmon to be a low option on offense -- just like he was in San Antonio.  The Spurs gave him 7 shots per 36 last season and last time I checked Pops knows what he is doing.  We won't feed him in the post and shouldn't.

What Dedmon can do is defend the pick and roll (which Dwight is incapable of doing) and set some screens on offense (which Dwight is merely unwilling to do).  Dedmon doesn't have the same limitations on defense that Dwight does and won't be as physically strong in post defense.  Absent some kind of injury, I think you can book that.

[Diesel]

1 minute ago, AHF said:

I expect Dedmon to be a low option on offense -- just like he was in San Antonio.  The Spurs gave him 7 shots per 36 last season and last time I checked Pops knows what he is doing.  We won't feed him in the post and shouldn't.

What Dedmon can do is defend the pick and roll (which Dwight is incapable of doing) and set some screens on offense (which Dwight is merely unwilling to do).  Dedmon doesn't have the same limitations on defense that Dwight does and won't be as physically strong in post defense.  Absent some kind of injury, I think you can book that.

Dedmon has never been in the same stratosphere on offense or defense as Dwight so I don't expect him to complain about his role.  He will just go out and do dirty work and be happy to be on the team.  SO I can agree with your booking that Dedmon will go out, do dirty work, and not complain. 

However, you don't go out and get a Thoroughbred to do a dog and pony show.  That's what Dwight was here.  My point is not that he was great, my point is that he has a right to complain because we misused him.  We used him the same way you expect us to use Dedmon.  "Set a pick for Dennis".  "Get in there scrap for rebounds so that you can score".   This is the game plan for our centers now.   Dedmon will not be developed as a Hawk... (Book it).  He will just do that dirty work and no expectations will be placed on him or shouldn't be because he is reliant on Dennis feeling like passing to him.  That's the same problem that Dwight had.   So what do we do.. Scrap Dwight and get some young dumb big who will do dirty work without complaint. 

 

 

[AHF]

The way we should have used Dwight and the way he should have committed to playing was setting hard screens and rolling to the basket.  He is elite at rolling to the basket and he has the body to be elite at setting screens.  

The way Dwight wanted to be used was posting up.  He is not very good at that as his sorry 0.89 PPP or whatever the exact number is demonstrates.  He wasn't very good at posting up in his last couple stops and that didn't change in Atlanta.  Feeding him more would not have dramatically improved his last several years of post production.

[kurupt]

[Diesel]

3 hours ago, AHF said:

The way we should have used Dwight and the way he should have committed to playing was setting hard screens and rolling to the basket.  He is elite at rolling to the basket and he has the body to be elite at setting screens.  

The way Dwight wanted to be used was posting up.  He is not very good at that as his sorry 0.89 PPP or whatever the exact number is demonstrates.  He wasn't very good at posting up in his last couple stops and that didn't change in Atlanta.  Feeding him more would not have dramatically improved his last several years of post production.

I'm not going to blame Dwight because there were many times when he did set picks... good picks and Dennis used them and never passed.   As a big in the pick and roll, eventually, you get tired of setting good picks for selfish point guards. 

 

[AHF]

5 minutes ago, Diesel said:

I'm not going to blame Dwight because there were many times when he did set picks... good picks and Dennis used them and never passed.   As a big in the pick and roll, eventually, you get tired of setting good picks for selfish point guards. 

 

I blame him for not doing enough in both those areas.  Last year was the continuation of a string of coaches who were frustrated with him not committing to laying strong picks and rolling hard.  Bud got sick of that and his P&R deficiencies and benched him.

Also point the blame at Budcox for not optimizing him (those failures are all things that should have been seen coming and therefore you knew what you were getting with him), but I personally had hopes for more from Dwight.  His insistence on posting up and refusal to make the hard screens and hard rolls a core part of his identity as a player reminds me of Josh Smith and his insistence of shooting jumps and refusal to commit to interior play and drives to the basket.

[Diesel]

4 minutes ago, AHF said:

I blame him for not doing enough in both those areas.  Last year was the continuation of a string of coaches who were frustrated with him not committing to laying strong picks and rolling hard.  Bud got sick of that and his P&R deficiencies and benched him.

Also point the blame at Budcox for not optimizing him (those failures are all things that should have been seen coming and therefore you knew what you were getting with him), but I personally had hopes for more from Dwight.  His insistence on posting up and refusal to make the hard screens and hard rolls a core part of his identity as a player reminds me of Josh Smith and his insistence of shooting jumps and refusal to commit to interior play and drives to the basket.

I look forward to the same arguments about Dedmon... next offseason.