I hope we try to be competitive this year

[JayBirdHawk]

1 hour ago, Peoriabird said:

They wanted Wes Matthews in return......

....To get out of Baze's last year at $19 million.

[KB21]

2 hours ago, Peoriabird said:

The confusion is not over how many games will the hawks vs GS in the finals.  The confusion for me is the prediction of 8 fewer wins than last year even thought the team would have more talent and experience.  KB himself said that the draft was great but then says the team will be worse.  Don't get it.

The team may have more raw talent this year, but it will not be more experienced than last year.  Particularly after Schröder, Bazemore, and Dedmond are moved.  

[Peoriabird]

3 minutes ago, KB21 said:

The team may have more raw talent this year, but it will not be more experienced than last year.  Particularly after Schröder, Bazemore, and Dedmond are moved.  

So since you know That they will be moved...Where will they be move and for what?

[JayBirdHawk]

42 minutes ago, Peoriabird said:

Y'all just love create your own narratives.  1st of all Dennis said that he would prefer to stay in Atlanta and his other statements where blown out of proportion.  He had a meeting with front office and you hadn't heard a peep since because there is no story.  Secondly, no one talk about who would start when.  Certainly  we don't know how Dennis or Teague felt at the time of each draft.  If Dennis gets outplayed and looses his starting job that would be great but I still don't think there is a rush to get him off the team.  We'll just have to wait and see what happens

This I can agree with...Dennis was pissed about being offered in trade at the deadline, said in Germany he doesn't want to be here in his prime on a last place team and wanted to have a discussion regarding the team direction, we know he met with management,  per Cunningham of AJC, he hasn't directly expressed any interest in being moved to ownership. 

[KB21]

7 minutes ago, Peoriabird said:

So since you know That they will be moved...Where will they be move and for what?

I don't know yet where they will be traded, but I have a feeling most fans will not like the return when it happens based on Travis's trading history.

[Peoriabird]

1 minute ago, KB21 said:

I don't know yet where they will be traded, but I have a feeling most fans will not like the return when it happens based on Travis's trading history.

Based on a total of 1 trade?

[KB21]

4 minutes ago, Peoriabird said:

Based on a total of 1 trade?

It's based on every trade he has made, whether it was the draft trade or the Dwight trade.  Travis has yet to maximize the value he can get in a trade.

[Peoriabird]

14 minutes ago, KB21 said:

It's based on every trade he has made, whether it was the draft trade or the Dwight trade.  Travis has yet to maximize the value he can get in a trade.

What other trades has he done other than at the draft??  You don't think that an additional lottery pick to move up 2 spots is enough...What did Boston get from Philly when Philly traded up 2 spots?

[KB21]

Let's take a look at the returning roster.  The only players on the roster with more than 3 years of playing experience are Kent Bazemore with 6 years, Miles Plumlee with 6 years, Dewayne Dedmon with 5 years, Dennis Schröder with 5 years, and Mike Muscala with 5 years.  The combined projected WARP for those 5 players in 2018-2019 is 4.6 WARP.  That means those players would be expected to get you 4.6 wins above what a replacement level team would get you.  

Prince and Collins are projected for a combined 2.2 WARP in 2018-2019.  So, that is 6.8 WARP between the guys who will probably be the top 7 in the rotation at the start of the year.  

So, that leaves guys like DeAndre Bembry, Isaiah Taylor, Antonius Cleveland, Jaylen Morris, and Tyler Dorsey who will likely be at or below replacement level, so before adding in the rookie contributions, you are probably looking at around 16-17 wins, if not fewer if one of the above plays a lot of minutes but has a major negative impact.  

As much as I like Trae Young, I don't see him being more than a 0.5 WARP player as a rookie with the other two draft picks being a negative at this point.  So, unless they add some legitimate positive contributor in free agency, I do not see this team getting more than 18 wins in 2018-2019.  

[bleachkit]

2 hours ago, Peoriabird said:

Bazemore was the only one mentioned in trade negotiations but that was for a specific reason. Dennis' name was not included in any know trade deals but like I said, Y'all keep think that Schlenk just wants to trade Dennis and baze at all cost but I don't think this is the case.  So I assume they both will be on the opening day roster this year.

No one want Dennis or Baze, and I don't think Travis wants to give up assets just for a salary dump. So I expect them to be here.

[Peoriabird]

8 minutes ago, KB21 said:

Let's take a look at the returning roster.  The only players on the roster with more than 3 years of playing experience are Kent Bazemore with 6 years, Miles Plumlee with 6 years, Dewayne Dedmon with 5 years, Dennis Schröder with 5 years, and Mike Muscala with 5 years.  The combined projected WARP for those 5 players in 2018-2019 is 4.6 WARP.  That means those players would be expected to get you 4.6 wins above what a replacement level team would get you.  

Prince and Collins are projected for a combined 2.2 WARP in 2018-2019.  So, that is 6.8 WARP between the guys who will probably be the top 7 in the rotation at the start of the year.  

So, that leaves guys like DeAndre Bembry, Isaiah Taylor, Antonius Cleveland, Jaylen Morris, and Tyler Dorsey who will likely be at or below replacement level, so before adding in the rookie contributions, you are probably looking at around 16-17 wins, if not fewer if one of the above plays a lot of minutes but has a major negative impact.  

As much as I like Trae Young, I don't see him being more than a 0.5 WARP player as a rookie with the other two draft picks being a negative at this point.  So, unless they add some legitimate positive contributor in free agency, I do not see this team getting more than 18 wins in 2018-2019.  

What was Sap's, Howard and THJR's warp?

[JayBirdHawk]

Baze may be overpaid, but is a really cool dude...

 

[AHF]

4 minutes ago, JayBirdHawk said:

Baze may be overpaid, but is a really cool dude...

 

There is nothing to like about him other than Bud putting too much responsibility on him and too much money on his contract.  I don’t blame him for either of those things.  I think there will be a higher priority on moving Dennis than him but Dennis could certainly go the other way and get on board.  My speculation is that won’t happen but time will tell.

[KB21]

18 minutes ago, Peoriabird said:

What was Sap's, Howard and THJR's warp?

Those three are combined for 9.7 WARP projection for 2019.  Paul Millsap is projected at 5.7 WARP.

[bleachkit]

19 minutes ago, JayBirdHawk said:

Baze may be overpaid, but is a really cool dude...

 

If I had a guaranteed $70,000,000.00 contract, I would sleep well at night too.

[Peoriabird]

Just now, KB21 said:

Those three are combined for 9.7 WARP projection for 2019.  Paul Millsap is projected at 5.7 WARP.

So according to your formula, the 2016 team should have won 28 games

[KB21]

2 minutes ago, Peoriabird said:

So according to your formula, the 2016 team should have won 28 games

No, because the WARPS are different on a year to year basis.  Paul was a 10.6 WARP player by himself in 2016.  

[Peoriabird]

6 minutes ago, KB21 said:

No, because the WARPS are different on a year to year basis.  Paul was a 10.6 WARP player by himself in 2016.  

So where you able to predict this based on the previous year's warp?

[KB21]

Just for clarity purposes, according to Kevin Pelton, Trae Young is projected to average 3.0 WARP over the next 5 years.  He has the third highest WARP projection among the rookies.  Luka Doncic is projected to average 5.8 WARP over the next 5 years.  He was #1.  That stings!

Kevin Huerter was actually 11th on this list with a projected 1.8 WARP average over his first 5 years.  

Omari Spellman has a projected average of 0.5 WARP over the next 5 years.  

[KB21]

3 minutes ago, Peoriabird said:

So where you able to predict this based on the previous year's warp?

These aren't my projects.  These are FiveThirtyEight's projections from their CARMELO system.  Looking at their projections for this past year, my projected win total for the Hawks was 23.  They won 24.