I hope we try to be competitive this year

[Peoriabird]

4 minutes ago, KB21 said:

These aren't my projects.  These are FiveThirtyEight's projections from their CARMELO system.  Looking at their projections for this past year, my projected win total for the Hawks was 23.  They won 24.  

Wait what?  I thought we were talking about warp!  Now we are talking about another metric?  How accurate is this metric again?  How many wins were projected by this metric for the 2016-17 and the 2017-18 season?  What about our 60 win season?

[KB21]

3 minutes ago, Peoriabird said:

Wait what?  I thought we were talking about warp!  Now we are talking about another metric?  How accurate is this metric again?  How many wins were projected by this metric for the 2016-17 and the 2017-18 season?  What about our 60 win season?

CARMELO isn't the metric.  It's the system they use to calculate the projected WARP for a player.

[Peoriabird]

5 minutes ago, KB21 said:

CARMELO isn't the metric.  It's the system they use to calculate the projected WARP for a player.

So how accurate has it been??  Did it predict 60 win in the 14-15 season?

[AHF]

3 minutes ago, Peoriabird said:

So how accurate has it been??  Did it predict 60 win in the 14-15 season?

There isn’t a public prognosticator or system that did.  To get a gauge on accuracy you need to look broader than a single season or single team.

[KB21]

3 minutes ago, Peoriabird said:

So how accurate has it been??  Did it predict 60 win in the 14-15 season?

The CARMELO numbers do not go back that far.  

[Peoriabird]

Just now, AHF said:

There isn’t a public prognosticator or system that did.  To get a gauge on accuracy you need to look broader than a single season or single team.

Did you read my 1st post?  I did ask for multiple seasons and he didn't answer

1 minute ago, KB21 said:

The CARMELO numbers do not go back that far.  

How bout the last 3 years???

[AHF]

1 minute ago, Peoriabird said:

Did you read my 1st post?  I did ask for multiple seasons and he didn't answer

How bout the last 3 years???

I’m not criticizing you.  It is just a big task to take on.  Nothing a single poster can do in a night unless someone has already crunched the numbers and they are just referencing the conclusions.

[Peoriabird]

3 minutes ago, AHF said:

I’m not criticizing you.  It is just a big task to take on.  Nothing a single poster can do in a night unless someone has already crunched the numbers and they are just referencing the conclusions.

He is the one that used this to predict the number of win for the up coming season... I just asked him to determine how credible the predictor is before declaring his prediction as fact.

[KB21]

CARMELO projected the Hawks to win 45.7 games in 2015-16.   I haven't found their projections for 2016-17 or 2017-18 yet.

 

[Peoriabird]

3 minutes ago, KB21 said:

CARMELO projected the Hawks to win 45.7 games in 2015-16.   I haven't found their projections for 2016-17 or 2017-18 yet.

 

48 wins that year

[KB21]

8 minutes ago, Peoriabird said:

48 wins that year

So it projected to within 2.3 wins.  That's pretty good.  I still haven't found their 2016-17 projections.  

[Vol4ever]

Much harder to win with this rookie coach who is a stopgap.  Bud would have had the team more competitive because he is a good proven coach. 

[Peoriabird]

2 minutes ago, Vol4ever said:

Much harder to win with this rookie coach who is a stopgap.  Bud would have had the team more competitive because he is a good proven coach. 

How do you know?  People said the same thing about Smith and Quinn

[Vol4ever]

1 hour ago, Peoriabird said:

How do you know?  People said the same thing about Smith and Quinn

It's my opinion.  Bud is a upper tier coach in this league.  

[Spud2nique]

I think this team on paper would have won about 25 games next year with Bud and with Lloyd I’ll go with 21. We are just too young and raw with a rookie head coach.

[Buzzard]

23 hours ago, JayBirdHawk said:

I don't think it's a 'trade Baze or Dennis at all/any cost. If he can get value for either, I think he would based on past circumstances. 

I saw 2 trade rumors involving Bazemore. #3 and Baze for #5 and Matthews. Also saw #19 and Baze to Indy for #23.

Dennis rumors: #19 and Dennis to LAC for #13.

Besides Dennis was on the trade block at the trade deadline. (See AJC article I posted in the Dennis thread)...."Schröder, who was upset when his name surfaced in rumors at the deadline."

 

I saw the same rumors and agree. I do not think we are desperate to move either right away. Baze only has two seasons left and Dennis has not been complaining in public since his initial fubar on German Radio,

Baze's last season could be real valuable and Dennis could improve his stock greatly if he walks in with his head on straight.

[bleachkit]

Bud babied Dennis to much. Hopefully Coach Pierce lays down the law. No more antics, no more BS. And get your butt back on defense when you miss a shot.