Vegas Hawks season wins as of now...

[NBASupes]

VC may still be back. At the end of the day, he was used as the 8th man, a spot we still don't have. 

Reddish and Hunter will split mins. Hunter is more of a 4/3 depending on the matchup and Reddish is more of a 3/2 who can spot mins at the 1. 

Fernando might eventually be a #3 string 5 but right now, he is behind Len, Omari and Plumlee and could be more soon. College Park will be his home. 

The only needs are Omari must replace Len impact as a backup 5 and we need a backup PG

[gurpilo]

hace 22 minutos, thecampster dijo:

Few people realize this but Len had equal to or better per 48 numbers to Dedmon last year.

Per 48 Len     per 48 Dedmon

27.1 P/48,      20.6 P/48

13.5 R/48       14.3 R/48

2.7 A/48         2.7 A/48

2.2 B/48         2.1 B/48

49.4% FG%     49.2% FG%

-.9 PER             -4.4 PER

43.4 wins%     39.1 wins%

 

Per 48 Len was the much more aggressive player offensively which led to him posting a slightly better PER and holding his opponent to a 2.5 point lower PER.  Statistically he was better offensively and defensively per 48 which is probably why he was starting by the end of the year.

I believe Dedmon's eye test was greatly skewed by who he was on the court with during the more exciting games but the statistical facts show they were better with Len on the floor.

 

A similar analysis of Spellman shows that although he was offensively statistically absent at times, they were still better against opposing Centers with him on the floor as well.  I believe the key to this season is Spellman doing his work and Fernando's adjustment period. If Bruno is what he is supposed to be as a 3rd option and if Spellman avoids McDonald's like a pregnant ex, we could actually be better at that position.  IMHO (and stats bear this out) Bruno as the 3rd center > Fat Spellman and healthy Spellman is similar to Dedmon.

I realize that Len was equal to Dedmon last year, in fact at the end of the season he was even better. The problem is that Len cannot play more than 25 min due to his conditioning, I cannot see playing 35 mpg, injuries will plague him. That leaves 23 min to be covered by other guy and now the gap between Dedmon and Spellman and Fernando is huge. I am not denying I like what I see from Bruno and Spellman and probably they can produce at Dedmon's level at some point, I doubt that point is next season at least consistently.

[gurpilo]

I see that Spellman still has everything to prove, he had some highlights last year but his conditioning is a major concern, if he has to play 20mpg on 75 games that is a huge step for him right now, hopefully he can do it.

[Lurker]

As of right now, I’ll split the difference and round up from the middle of the numbers that I was saying (35-40 wins) and say 38-44. That most definitely could be a team that makes the playoffs.

Some of my reasoning is that I’m less optimistic on Reddish. I think there’s a good shot that they choose to slow play here, and a successful year looks a lot like 20 MPG on about 9.5 PTS/3 REB/1.5 AST, and a 40%/37%/78% slash.

If they’re not doing much at the big man spot, I think Fernando ends up being a surprise contributor to an extent, but ultimately imo, Hunter is the big rookie contributor and settles in quickly as the Draymond/Horford/Brogdon type at SF/PF.

I’m more optimistic on Reddish’s future than I was because of the injury deal, but I’m still thinking it’ll take a while and factoring in good jumps but the in general here. IF I’m wrong on Reddish taking time, better than the good jumps happen, and you see better health for 19/20, then you could see a real surprise, but I think 20/21 is “it” and still wish they planned to be more in FAgency for this year because of it.

[Peoriabird]

We are very thin at center even without injuries!  I don't think either Spellman or Collins are effective at center at all...They need to find more center depth.  Hopefully Dedmon comes back.

[gurpilo]

Rotation at beginning of season, everyone healthy.

Trae (33)/ ? (15)

Huerter (28)/ Crabbe (20)

Hunter (18) / Reddish (15) / Bembry (15)

Collins (32) / Hunter(10)/ Spellman (6)

Len (25)/ ? (15)/ Fernando (8)

Definately if we do not sign a backup C Fernando and Spellman need to step up, let's see at summer league how they are. 

[thecampster]

So this is a hard year to determine wins because if they are competitive come trade deadline they'll drop those expirings for talent...if not, they might trade a player or 2 for future considerations....depends on the first 2 months.

[Peoriabird]

Having better luck with health would have given us at least 5 or more wins by itself.  Also a real back up point guard down the stretch would have netted us an additional 2-3 wins.  With better defense, a back up point guard that can score and better defensive wings, 41 wins should be easy!

[TheNorthCydeRises]

9 hours ago, NBASupes said:

Dedmon will hurt in terms of experience and screen setting but honestly, there was little to no gap between Dedmon and Len. Both were inconsistent. Both have helpful strengths and bad weaknesses. Omari is the one that needs to step up and be a good backup and replace Len's impact as a backup center. I want Bruno in College Park working on his defense and his screens. 

 

Omari is the one that needs to be in College Park.  I was highly disappointed in his play last season, seeing that minutes were there for his taking.

After Summer League, people are going to be clamoring for Bruno to be the opening night starter.   He is a lot more NBA ready than people think. 

[hazer]

That’s a low nimber right der, Bawb. Get a vet backup PG behind Ice TrATL, him and The Huert and J-Bap improve, the defense improves, and this is a 44-win 7th seed  

[hazer]

1 hour ago, Peoriabird said:

We are very thin at center even without injuries!  I don't think either Spellman or Collins are effective at center at all...They need to find more center depth.  Hopefully Dedmon comes back.

Len/Collins/Spellman/Fernando/Plumlee

We full...

[NBASupes]

28 minutes ago, TheNorthCydeRises said:

 

Omari is the one that needs to be in College Park.  I was highly disappointed in his play last season, seeing that minutes were there for his taking.

After Summer League, people are going to be clamoring for Bruno to be the opening night starter.   He is a lot more NBA ready than people think. 

Naw, you underrating Omari too much. Before he got fat after the injury, he was looking like he was on the same tier with Len at times. 

For me, the vets I want to bring in are VC and Jeremy Lin. Know the system, fit a role of need, and know the locker room. 

 

 

[Spud2nique]

4 hours ago, NBASupes said:

VC may still be back. At the end of the day, he was used as the 8th man, a spot we still don't have. 

Reddish and Hunter will split mins. Hunter is more of a 4/3 depending on the matchup and Reddish is more of a 3/2 who can spot mins at the 1. 

Fernando might eventually be a #3 string 5 but right now, he is behind Len, Omari and Plumlee and could be more soon. College Park will be his home. 

The only needs are Omari must replace Len impact as a backup 5 and we need a backup PG

I just said spot minutes for Cam at the 1 on the other thread before seeing this. Supes got my ideas layed out nicely love it.

[hazer]

Y’all forgetting just how damn savvy Cal’Omari was before the injury/weight. Kid has some serious smarts and skillz, plus a 7’2 wingspan. 

3-5 mins a night at PG for a 6’8 210lb smooth-shooting smart defender with a 7’1 wingspan is intriguing indeed

[Peoriabird]

42 minutes ago, hazer said:

Len/Collins/Spellman/Fernando/Plumlee

We full...

Nah... I don't think so...Spellman and Collins were very ineffective at center.  Plus Collins in injury prone and you don't want him getting beat up by bigger guys on a regular basis.  Plumlee is useless

[Spud2nique]

8 minutes ago, hazer said:

Y’all forgetting just how damn savvy Cal’Omari was before the injury/weight. Kid has some serious smarts and skillz, plus a 7’2 wingspan. 

3-5 mins a night at PG for a 6’8 210lb smooth-shooting smart defender with a 7’1 wingspan is intriguing indeed

Yes sir. Don’t sleep on Omari. He might be pissed at the way the season went for him and come back twice as strong.

[Peoriabird]

9 minutes ago, hazer said:

Y’all forgetting just how damn savvy Cal’Omari was before the injury/weight. Kid has some serious smarts and skillz, plus a 7’2 wingspan. 

3-5 mins a night at PG for a 6’8 210lb smooth-shooting smart defender with a 7’1 wingspan is intriguing indeed

He doesn't play big!  Can't finish around the rim at all.  Or rim protect.  There should be better options available

[pimp]

 

Hawks improved a lot over the season.

I believe they went 13  -28 in the first 41 games, and 18 - 23 in the second half. Plus, the Hawks tanked during the last 5 or 6 games. So they were very close to being at .500 in the 2nd half of the season.

[JayBirdHawk]

8 hours ago, gurpilo said:

First of all, the ranking has Hawks failing playoffs by only 2 wins as has Detroit, Miami and Orlando tied with 36,5 wins so I would say is predicting low on the East.

Second, 34,5 wins might be accurate now considering the roster is not complete. We have some major contributors last year that we need to replace, Dedmon, Prince, Lin and Vince Carter.

Prince will be replaced by Hunter, 28,5 min and 13,5 ppg, 3rd scorer on the team, I think Hunter will provide better defense but will not achieve his scoring, 10ppg might be a more realistic prediction. On his first season I think this is a draw hopefully, the intangibles of Hunter hopefully cover the drop on production.

Dedmon has no replacement, 25mpg, 11ppg, 7,5rpg, 1bpg, this is a major hole, I don't think Fernando or Spellman can replace this numbers. Unless we sign a replacement here, this is a loss for the team.

Lin has no replacement, 10,7 ppg, 3,5 apg, we need a backup PG, roster is not complete. Anyway this loss I don't think has same effect as Dedmon.

Carter will be replaced by Reddish, 17 mpg, 7,5 ppg. I think Reddish might be able to make this production although I don't think he will have some big games as Carter that impacted as 2 wins. Might be a loss or a draw on first season.

Although we might lose some on the departures clearly Young, Collins and Huerter will improve his numbers making up on the scoring department the loss of production. I also expect some improvement from Len and Bembry. I also think Crabbe will play a major role as 6th man off the bench and will outproduce Bazemore, our 4th scorer last year, in fact I think Baze is the odd man out, Crabbe will score more efficiently. I also think our additions are better fit on the team. Considering all this I think we could be on the 35-38 wins range. If we are able to add a capable PG and a C I think we could achieve 42 wins.

Miami, Detroit and Orlando are the playoff competition. Miami is the one with better draft, Herro and Okpala, although their needs were more on the frontcourt, they had a lot of injuries last year and are a good team. Orlando, no additions and might lose Vucevic, hole at PG, Fultz might cover it? DET added Sekou but I doubt he makes an impact this year but they have a hole at SF and he fills it but they have a hole at the wings.

I disagree regarding Crabbe, as long as Baze is here he'll be the backup SG behind Huerter. 

Crabbe's only skill is as a spot up shooter, he doesn't do much else. Baze at least defends, gets steals, deflections, rebounds and assists. And he's great in the locker room.

Beside, rumors that Crabbe may have requested a buyout.

 

[gurpilo]

hace 34 minutos, JayBirdHawk dijo:

I disagree regarding Crabbe, as long as Baze is here he'll be the backup SG behind Huerter. 

Crabbe's only skill is as a spot up shooter, he doesn't do much else. Baze at least defends, gets steals, deflections, rebounds and assists. And he's great in the locker room.

Beside, rumors that Crabbe may have requested a buyout.

 

I understand most people will disagree but Crabbe is the best player of the 2 and he fits better with our system, I don't think he will want to leave, he can make 2 good seasons at Atlanta that will help him on his next contract.