John Collins - PnR

[JayBirdHawk]

On 8/12/2019 at 5:33 PM, JTB said:

Agreed! I don’t know how John can overcome his defensive flaws at 4 or 5! 

I would at least like him to be a better team defender to start. Let's begin there at least.

[JayBirdHawk]

 

 

[AHF]

As exciting as Trae is (and he is), JC was our best player last year.  That is really promising for the future!

[NBASupes]

21 minutes ago, AHF said:

As exciting as Trae is (and he is), JC was our best player last year.  That is really promising for the future!

Idk about that. The data says yes but my eyes say this team without Trae is ass. Without John in the 2nd half of the year, we weren't awful. We were just meh.

 

1st half Trae couldn't impact what 2nd half Trae was.

Edited August 14, 2019 by NBASupes

[AHF]

1 hour ago, NBASupes said:

Idk about that. The data says yes but my eyes say this team without Trae is ass. Without John in the 2nd half of the year, we weren't awful. We were just meh.

 

1st half Trae couldn't impact what 2nd half Trae was.

In games Collins started, we were 24-36 for a 40% winning %.  When Collins wasn't healthy enough to start, we were 5-17 for a 22.7% winning %.  That is a huge difference and, as you point out, 1H Trae had a very different impact from 2H Trae and I'm evaluating the entire season.  On that full season basis, JC was out best player for sure.   And my eyes and the numbers both tell me the team was a** when Collins wasn't there.

Beyond the team's performance, the individual player data is compelling and, as you note, all points to JC having been more important last season: 

• The team was actually 1.5 points per 100 possessions worse when Young was on the floor due to his defense.  Atlanta was 6.1 points better on offense and 7.6 points worse on defense when Young was on the floor. 
• Conversely, the team was 7.0 points better when Collins was on the floor.  Collins had an even bigger positive impact on our offense with the team being 8.9 points better on offense when he was on the floor and a lesser negative impact on D with us only being 1.9 points worse when he on the bench.

If Trae passes Collins this year, that is great for us because I'm sure Collins will continue to be outstanding but I am taking Collins as our MVP last season by both the data and my eyes.

[NBASupes]

2 minutes ago, AHF said:

In games Collins started, we were 24-36 for a 40% winning %.  When Collins wasn't healthy enough to start, we were 5-17 for a 22.7% winning %.  That is a huge difference and, as you point out, 1H Trae had a very different impact from 2H Trae and I'm evaluating the entire season.  On that full season basis, JC was out best player for sure.   And my eyes and the numbers both tell me the team was a** when Collins wasn't there.

Beyond the team's performance, the individual player data is compelling and, as you note, all points to JC having been more important last season: 

• The team was actually 1.5 points per 100 possessions worse when Young was on the floor due to his defense.  Atlanta was 6.1 points better on offense and 7.6 points worse on defense when Young was on the floor. 
• Conversely, the team was 7.0 points better when Collins was on the floor.  Collins had an even bigger positive impact on our offense with the team being 8.9 points better on offense when he was on the floor and a lesser negative impact on D with us only being 1.9 points worse when he on the bench.

If Trae passes Collins this year, that is great for us because I'm sure Collins will continue to be outstanding but I am taking Collins as our MVP last season by both the data and my eyes.

I tend to be more soft on upcoming Sophomores than most. I was high on SAC for that coming into last year. I am high on us for the same reason

[AHF]

5 minutes ago, NBASupes said:

I tend to be more soft on upcoming Sophomores than most. I was high on SAC for that coming into last year. I am high on us for the same reason

Trae is definitely talented enough to keep taking big steps and become our best player this season.  He just needs to wrest that crown from JC's hands and JC should not make it easy by continuing to improve himself.  They are a dynamic duo happening in our own house!

[NBASupes]

1 minute ago, AHF said:

Trae is definitely talented enough to keep taking big steps and become our best player this season.  He just needs to wrest that crown from JC's hands and JC should not make it easy by continuing to improve himself.  They are a dynamic duo happening in our own house!

I think JC will be excellent this year. I seen some post game improvement in team USA camp. I really think you got a modern Karl Malone. His defense has to be better. The modern NBA ain't the early 90s. These guys need to be mobile and versatile on D. Something John usually wasn't in my eyes. I am expecting ASG this year for John

I have no doubt that Trae will be a top 5 offensive PG this year and that we will be much better than 23rd best three point shooting team than we were in Trae rookie year. 

The upgrade in fit from Prince and Baze to Cam and Hunter will be massive as well

[Gray Mule]

29 times last season, other NBA teams met our beloved Hawk team and lost.  We expect that to happen more this season, driving our still unfinished product to new places that they haven't been in some time.

Every defeat will be a bitter pill to swallow, as always.  Right now, we all hope and believe those 29 victories will grow and grow.  Never again do we wish to be that low on the totem pole.  We may not reach the #8 place in the east.  If we don't, we will walk right up close. 

Another year.  That's what we believe.  Come next summer we Hawk fans believe that our team is ready to take on all comers!  Don't try to be too good too soon.  That's why we can't go for it now.  We are still growing.  Give us another year, then watch our Hawks !!

 

[Plainview1981]

All they have to do is become average on defense and you can build a decent defensive team around them to make it work.

[JayBirdHawk]

Hope to see more of this!

 

 

[JayBirdHawk]

 

 

[AHF]

Most surprising name on that list for me is Tony Parker.

[enrique]

I am high on JC for this year for sure. His summer videos have looked very strong in the post. I haven't seen him shooting the 3 ball as much, but that might just be what he is being asked to do for Team USA. 

This recent article gave a good review of JC and then drops the hint of him moving way up the rankings if he can bolster his defensive game some.

https://nba.nbcsports.com/2019/08/26/nbcsports-coms-50-best-players-in-5-years-kyrie-irving-deandre-ayton-players-25-21/

 

[Atlantaholic]

John Collins has perennial All-Star potential for sure... It's like he's everything Josh Smith was not for good and for worse lol.

[Spud2nique]

Agreed on the above posts concerning Collins. He’s a bad man. In 24 min per during his rookie season he averaged 7.3 boards and last year in 30 minutes he grabbed 9.8. Considering he’s currently one of our cornerstones, he could see another bump in minutes to around 33-35 per which could see his average climb over 11 boards a game. 22.5/11.5 seems feasible.

[Spud2nique]

NBA.com ranks John Collins 3rd amongst all power forwards in the NBA for the upcoming 2019-20 season. Some notables:

Draymond 10th. Porzingis 9th..

I feel like this is fair. Again, I would put him 2nd overall behind Greek Freak. Then again I’m a Hawks fan  Do you all like his ranking?

https://www.nba.com/magic/ranking-best-power-forwards-11-20190710

[JayBirdHawk]

11 hours ago, Spud2nique said:

NBA.com ranks John Collins 3rd amongst all power forwards in the NBA for the upcoming 2019-20 season. Some notables:

Draymond 10th. Porzingis 9th..

I feel like this is fair. Again, I would put him 2nd overall behind Greek Freak. Then again I’m a Hawks fan  Do you all like his ranking?

https://www.nba.com/magic/ranking-best-power-forwards-11-20190710

I like it, i like it!

[AHF]

Collins could easily prove that #3 ranking totally justified but I wouldn't go that high until he shows more on the defensive side of the ball.  I'm purely talking about a 2019-20 ranking here and not about his future ceiling which I like better than his present.

[JayBirdHawk]

Interesting read!

 

Quote

Last season — despite playing entirely below the rim — Young did quite a bit of jumping, due in large part to John Collins’ explosiveness and power as a finisher. The pair connected on 120 made shots at the rim and 163 buckets overall — a major driver of Young’s resurgent rookie campaign and Collins’ ascent to the fringes of All-Star consideration.

The two were made to complement one another on offense and have forged a dynamic and synergistic pick-and-roll partnership with one another. Young can spot seemingly any pass from any angle and is the sort of shooter who demands extra attention when he rounds screens 30 feet from the basket. Collins, meanwhile, reduces his margin for error. Passes thrown off-target or out of step with his dive to the basket usually still end up crammed through the hoop thanks to Collins’ otherworldly leaping ability and dedication to rolling hard. He glides effortlessly and endlessly through the air, keeping constant pressure on the rim regardless of whether or not he actually receives the ball. Weak-side defenders are necessarily pulled into Collins’ orbit, leaving shooters open around him, and Young, despite his size and age, has the wherewithal to find them: