Dumb spin from Schlenk

[txsting]

“We ended up right where we were supposed to,” Schlenk said. “Our greatest odd was being at sixth, 25 percent, so we won. ... Losing would have been seventh or eighth."

Come on man!  We were 4th in the number of ping pong balls.  The odds of getting any of the top 4 picks were 46%.  

I hope it's just spin doctoring.  We lost the lottery again.  Deal with it.  And make the best of it.

 

[JayBirdHawk]

7 minutes ago, txsting said:

“We ended up right where we were supposed to,” Schlenk said. “Our greatest odd was being at sixth, 25 percent, so we won. ... Losing would have been seventh or eighth."

Come on man!  We were 4th in the number of ping pong balls.  The odds of getting any of the top 4 picks were 46%.  

I hope it's just spin doctoring.  We lost the lottery again.  Deal with it.  And make the best of it.

 

Statistical odds of getting #6 was the highest

 

 

 

[kg01]

Well, yes it was dumb spin to try to say we "won".

However, 6th was always the most likely spot despite having the 4th most balls.  Statistically, we didn't drop.

[JayBirdHawk]

1 minute ago, kg01 said:

Well, yes it was dumb spin to try to say we "won".

However, 6th was always the most likely spot despite having the 4th most balls.  Statistically, we didn't drop.

I guess after dropping to #8 last year this felt like a win. 

[txsting]

Statistical odds of landing top 4 were much greater than landing 6.  I get that 6 is the most likely compared to any other single spot.

[kg01]

5 minutes ago, txsting said:

Statistical odds of landing top 4 were much greater than landing 6.  I get that 6 is the most likely compared to any other single spot.

Eh, doesn't work like that.  Can't really compare the combined "statistical odds" of landing in one of 4 spots to the "statistical odds" of lading in one spot.

[NBASupes]

11 minutes ago, txsting said:

Statistical odds of landing top 4 were much greater than landing 6.  I get that 6 is the most likely compared to any other single spot.

Not really. 

[txsting]

5 minutes ago, kg01 said:

Eh, doesn't work like that.  Can't really compare the combined "statistical odds" of landing in one of 4 spots to the "statistical odds" of lading in one spot.

Yes, it does if you're looking at the median expected value of the pick.  The mode is just the single value that occurs most often, but we're talking about a wide range of possibilities so it's not a great measure.  We were clearly more likely to be ahead of 6 than to be 6 and below.  Inarguable.  I'm bored of the argument already.

[kg01]

2 minutes ago, txsting said:

Yes, it does if you're looking at the median expected value of the pick.  The mode is just the single value that occurs most often, but we're talking about a wide range of possibilities so it's not a great measure.  We were clearly more likely to be ahead of 6 than to be 6 and below.  Inarguable.  I'm bored of the argument already.

All right, brutha.  Let's just both hope we do something magical with this pick.

No need to fight.  C'mere, gimme a hug.

[AHF]

4 minutes ago, txsting said:

Yes, it does if you're looking at the median expected value of the pick.  The mode is just the single value that occurs most often, but we're talking about a wide range of possibilities so it's not a great measure.  We were clearly more likely to be ahead of 6 than to be 6 and below.  Inarguable.  I'm bored of the argument already.

100% agree.  The number you should be thinking about as the over/under line is 4.43.  If we landed 4 or better we got lucky.  If we ended up 5th or worse we got unlucky.

Here is an exaggerated illustration:

Lottery odds:

#1 20%

#2 15%

#3 10%

#4 5%

#5 5%

#6 40%

#7 5%

#8 5%

Average Landing Spot:  4.4

Odds of top 4 pick:  55%

Most Single Likely Pick:  #6

 

Exaggerated by same thing:  Anything 4 and up is some level of lucky.  Anything 5 and below is some level of unlucky.

 

[LamarHampton]

In this math most of yall are forgetting the Hawks multiplier (the "Spud constant" if you will), which is not a positive factor for the team. Hasn't been for decades.

[AHF]

Just now, LamarHampton said:

In this math most of yall are forgetting the Hawks multiplier (the "Spud constant" if you will), which is not a positive factor for the team. Hasn't been for decades.

Somebody posted an interesting article about which teams have been lucky or unlucky over the years.  The Hawks were the 11th most unlucky in the lottery.  This might push us into the top 10.

[macdaddy]

Lottery is still a ridiculous joke of a process.  The odds are all jacked up and the fact that the Warriors got #2 should be an embarrassment to the NBA.  Owners should be demanding changes.  

[Spud2nique]

2 hours ago, kg01 said:

Well, yes it was dumb spin to try to say we "won".

Bob Meyers said “Curry was clutch again!”

 

Why, cuz he sat there with his dumb new corn rows (curry stylist Ayesha needs a new hobby).

They technically fell a spot but Curry is great!

-Bob Meyers nursing mom fake a$$ tits and all.

[Peoriabird]

1 hour ago, AHF said:

Somebody posted an interesting article about which teams have been lucky or unlucky over the years.  The Hawks were the 11th most unlucky in the lottery.  This might push us into the top 10.

Well maybe the solution to this is to stop assembling lottery bound teams and coaching staffs.

[Buzzard]

3 hours ago, txsting said:

Yes, it does if you're looking at the median expected value of the pick.  The mode is just the single value that occurs most often, but we're talking about a wide range of possibilities so it's not a great measure.  We were clearly more likely to be ahead of 6 than to be 6 and below.  Inarguable.  I'm bored of the argument already.

Getting the 4th pick or better was less than 50%. We did not get lucky but at least we did not drop to 7 or 8.

[AHF]

1 hour ago, Peoriabird said:

Well maybe the solution to this is to stop assembling lottery bound teams and coaching staffs.

The problem is bad luck.  Doesn't matter if the coach is Lenny Wilkens, Larry Brown or Lloyd Pierce.  Unless you are located in LA, you are going to be spending some time in the lottery on the way to winning a ring.

[AHF]

2 hours ago, macdaddy said:

Lottery is still a ridiculous joke of a process.  The odds are all jacked up and the fact that the Warriors got #2 should be an embarrassment to the NBA.  Owners should be demanding changes.  

I think you mentioned needing to use a 3 year window instead of just the last year's record and that makes a ton of sense to me.  Would seriously reduce the "one year dip" stuff that lets playoff teams and contenders pick up elite talent by getting a lucky pull (usually due to a single year of bad injury problems that the team leans into by shutting down good players).

[RedDawg#8]

We didn't WIN as he put it, but we came out where we expected to be in the end. The new lottery almost guarantee's that there is going to be movement with teams climbing up ahead of other.

If you want to combine the odds together and say we had a 46% chance at top 4, then you have to combine the other odds that say we had a 54% chance NOT to get top 4 if that makes sense. We were still more likely than not to land outside the top 4, but after that, our chances shot through the roof to get #6.

The only real loser here was Cleveland, who entered the lottery tied with the best chances to get #1 and still fell to number #5.  That hurts for them

[AHF]

25 minutes ago, RedDawg#8 said:

We didn't WIN as he put it, but we came out where we expected to be in the end. The new lottery almost guarantee's that there is going to be movement with teams climbing up ahead of other.

If you want to combine the odds together and say we had a 46% chance at top 4, then you have to combine the other odds that say we had a 54% chance NOT to get top 4 if that makes sense. We were still more likely than not to land outside the top 4, but after that, our chances shot through the roof to get #6.

The only real loser here was Cleveland, who entered the lottery tied with the best chances to get #1 and still fell to number #5.  That hurts for them

No we didn't.  Our expected spot was one of the top 5 picks.   

Odds of a top 4 pick was 48.1%.

Odds of a top 5 pick was 55.4%.

We had a 44.6% chance to land at 6 or lower.    

The weighted average spot for us if the lottery took place an infinite number of times was 4.43.

Six is below where we were expected to be even though it was the single most likely spot to land.