(Serious conversation) - What did the Trae rules and COVID cost us this year in the standings?

[thecampster]

Looking back at the disastrous start to the season and tracking it. 

The Hawks started the year 12-10 by Dec 2.  During this stretch of games, there were at least 3 games directly affected by the league trying to stop Trae and foul hunting. There were at least 3 the Hawks should have won (check the game longs).

They were 17-25 by Jan 16. (5-15 record). This was the infamous Hawks had to play with up to 10 players out with COVID protocols while other teams were canceling games.

Since then the Hawks have been 24-12, despite injuries and some pretty brutal back to backs.

 

Removing the 3 losses and this stretch of 20 games from the schedule, the Hawks record the rest of the year was 36-19, a .654 winning percentage. Include the 3 foul hunting losses as wins and we're 39-19, a .672 winning percentage.  .654 winning percentage is 53 wins in an 82 game season, .672 is 55 games.  55 games would be the 1 seed in the East this year.  Something to mush your brains on today.

 

Edited April 4, 2022 by thecampster

[marco102]

41 minutes ago, thecampster said:

Looking back at the disastrous start to the season and tracking it. 

The Hawks started the year 12-10 by Dec 2.  During this stretch of games, there were at least 3 games directly affected by the league trying to stop Trae and foul hunting. There were at least 3 the Hawks should have won (check the game longs).

They were 17-25 by Jan 16. (5-15 record). This was the infamous Hawks had to play with up to 10 players out with COVID protocols while other teams were canceling games.

Since then the Hawks have been 24-12, despite injuries and some pretty brutal back to backs.

 

Removing the 3 losses and this stretch of 20 games from the schedule, the Hawks record the rest of the year was 36-19, a .654 winning percentage. Include the 3 foul hunting losses as wins and we're 39-19, a .672 winning percentage.  .654 winning percentage is 53 wins in an 82 game season, .672 is 55 games.  55 games would be the 1 seed in the East this year.  Something to mush your brains on today.

 

Trae Young rules really didn't have too much impact imo. The covid stretch and the inconsistencies of this team, cost it a lot. Just happy they are playing better.

[JayBirdHawk]

I think we started season slowly for several reasons:

Huerter off season ankle surgery, Bogi knee procedure, Clint ankle/achilles procedure, Gallo shoulder soreness, Hunter returning from 2nd knee rehab, OO out from shoulder surgery.....NO training camp and_or NO preseason games.

New coaching staff, new offensive and defensive plans.

Same ingredients but different mix hence lack of consistency.

 

Here's where the Trae rules affected the team as a whole more so than Trae himself (i think he adjusted quickly enough)....nobody else could draw fouls consistently which kept us out of the bonus early and often.

[Diesel]

Camp,   I'm in agreement with you and have been saying it all season.   Our inconsistency has been a result of an ever changing roster.  It's hard to put together a winning plan when you don't know who will be in the lineup.   Our constant has been Trae.  The sad part is that people see that Trae played and believe that the Hawks should have won...

I think this game that we just played against Brooklyn should tell people one thing... "The Others" matter.  Nobody has made a big deal out of the fact that KD scored 55 points and Brooklyn still lost.  How is it even possible that he scored 55 points and the closest that they ever got to our lead was 5 pts?  How is it that he scored his career high in points and Irving played and scored over 20 and together they couldn't dominate enough to win the game?  Instead, the media is crying.. Brooklyn needed Simmons and Curry. 

Well, we haven't had JC in damn near 2 months.   We have had guys in and out.   Bogi's bad knee had it's time of keeping him out of the game.  Gallo gets hurt.  You have to account for the fact that we are walking wounded and still winning games.   But nobody wants to give us credit for that. 

[benhillboy]

33 minutes ago, JayBirdHawk said:

I think we started season slowly for several reasons:

Huerter off season ankle surgery, Bogi knee procedure, Clint ankle/achilles procedure, Gallo shoulder soreness, Hunter returning from 2nd knee rehab, OO out from shoulder surgery.....NO training camp and_or NO preseason games.

New coaching staff, new offensive and defensive plans.

Same ingredients but different mix hence lack of consistency.

 

Here's where the Trae rules affected the team as a whole more so than Trae himself (i think he adjusted quickly enough)....nobody else could draw fouls consistently which kept us out of the bonus early and often.

I didn’t realize it but damn that’s a lot of “procedures,” add John to the mix.  Them Emory physicians gon’ earn they money today!

Trae’s most valuable asset is his availability, exceptional for his body type.  FT shooting and vision tied for close second.

Edited April 4, 2022 by benhillboy

[kg01]

49 minutes ago, thecampster said:

Looking back at the disastrous start to the season and tracking it. 

The Hawks started the year 12-10 by Dec 2.  During this stretch of games, there were at least 3 games directly affected by the league trying to stop Trae and foul hunting. There were at least 3 the Hawks should have won (check the game longs).

They were 17-25 by Jan 16. (5-15 record). This was the infamous Hawks had to play with up to 10 players out with COVID protocols while other teams were canceling games.

Since then the Hawks have been 24-12, despite injuries and some pretty brutal back to backs.

 

Removing the 3 losses and this stretch of 20 games from the schedule, the Hawks record the rest of the year was 36-19, a .654 winning percentage. Include the 3 foul hunting losses as wins and we're 39-19, a .672 winning percentage.  .654 winning percentage is 53 wins in an 82 game season, .672 is 55 games.  55 games would be the 1 seed in the East this year.  Something to mush your brains on today.

 

These are more fair questions that folks will want to admit.  The covid stretch is beyond impactful in a way that never 'corrected itself' as other fanbases claimed it would.

The "new" foul rules?  I'd say that one backfired spectacularly for the league.  Sure it effected us but it absolutely torpedoed a great many players and other teams.  Look at how many guys struggled because of it.  Most never recovered.

Harden (to a large degree, plus his normal age-related decline), Lillard (got hurt but looked like he was tapping out before that due to lack of effectiveness).

Then you have a plethora of guys who are truly propped up by calls.  Randle (NYK) - greatly aided by soft whistles, Fox - basically everything they said would impact Trae actually impacted guys like him.

So, long story long, I think the foul rules impacted everyone but our guy had a plan B where others didn't.

[Diesel]

1 hour ago, JayBirdHawk said:

nobody else could draw fouls consistently which kept us out of the bonus early and often.

This is Nate's fault.  We don't run fast breaks.  If we ran more fast breaks, we would get more take fouls committed on us.  With Horses like Kev and Hunter and JC when he comes back.. we should be running the fast break and trying to dunk on teams when the chance presents itself.

I don't know why he's playing but TLC plays fast break basketball.  And Trae has the chops to be a great passer on the fast break.  Last game Trae hit Clint with a sweet 3/4 court pass because Clint was consistent in motoring down the lane.   JC is one of those dogs too.  I betcha JJ would also feast on the break.   We just have to employ it. 

[AUhawksfan]

We got the short end of the stick as far as the COVID rules and not being able to reschedule any of our games. That hurt, and when you’re not winning as a young team that can kill confidence. Who knows what kind of domino effect that had?  That was the biggest thing for me. 
 

It seemed like we were adjusting to the rules and turn a corner towards .500 when all that happened. At the end of the day though, we’re at least hitting our stride at the right time. We can be a problem for anyone in the playoffs but I have a feeling I’ll still be wondering “what if” regarding not having a better playoff seeding. 

[sturt]

Said this awhile back, but Jay's right and it wasn't just complacency at first... though, iirc, CC and Trae both have validated the complacency part as a thing.

===

===

And updating the summary, this most recent "meh" period in hindsight began with the TOR loss (Game 52) immediately after the PHX win... we would go on to post 11-11 over the next 22 games... and with that the "flamin hot" period was that 8-1 run that began with the MIL game (... and again, we were missing Trae in that one game lost).

 

Eliminating the Great Recession of 2022 from the equation, we've otherwise now played ball to the tune of... drum roll please....

.625

 

This morning, that would have us at 49-29, 1.5 games behind #1 MIA (51-28), and 0.5 ahead of what would be #3 BOS (49-30).

 

 

 

[macdaddy]

I honestly feel like the new rules made Trae and the team better but you bring up a good point about adjusting to them.  

Our covid issues were the biggest thing.  I think there are 3 more wins we would have had if we weren't playing with almost entirely g league players, but on top of that we would have hit this stride sooner than we did.

That said, and maybe the insiders have some thoughts, it also seems like mentally the players weren't happy for a lot of reasons and they've now decided to put those ill feelings aside for the stretch run.   Seems like no one was happy that Cam was getting minutes.  Bogi didn't seem all in because he was on the bench even though Kev and Hunter were playing terrible.  Clint seem pissed that no one was playing D and I think Trae was pissed that he was having to try to win games mostly by himself.   

Once the feelings of the trade deadline went away i think we refocused.  

[JayBirdHawk]

1 hour ago, JayBirdHawk said:

I think we started season slowly for several reasons:

Huerter off season ankle surgery, Bogi knee procedure, Clint ankle/achilles procedure, Gallo shoulder soreness, Hunter returning from 2nd knee rehab, OO out from shoulder surgery.....NO training camp and_or NO preseason games.

New coaching staff, new offensive and defensive plans.

Same ingredients but different mix hence lack of consistency.

 

Here's where the Trae rules affected the team as a whole more so than Trae himself (i think he adjusted quickly enough)....nobody else could draw fouls consistently which kept us out of the bonus early and often.

Our 1st Player COVID case was December 19th (or somewhere there) until Jan 5th or there about - that was an 8 game stretch where we won 2 games (maybe).

[Sothron]

Before the season I thought we were a 50-55 win team. If injuries/covid didn't happen or happened to a much less degree (remember we had as many as SIXTEEN players out from covid/injuries at the SAME TIME) I think we would have hit the 50-55 win mark this season.

I personally will never forgive Adam Silver or the NBA for forcing the Hawks to essentially forfeit multiple games while other teams did not. They got their games rescheduled. And when the NBA finally let guys come back earlier...somehow the Hawks, the most affected team BY FAR, were not given the new guidelines. For reasons that only make sense if the NBA was actively trying to sabotage the Hawks we were forced to go by the old guidelines.

As we saw this did not "balance" itself out because other teams had nowhere near as bad of a time with covid as we did especially considering their different guidelines regarding players being able to return. 

[kg01]

6 minutes ago, Sothron said:

Before the season I thought we were a 50-55 win team. If injuries/covid didn't happen or happened to a much less degree (remember we had as many as SIXTEEN players out from covid/injuries at the SAME TIME) I think we would have hit the 50-55 win mark this season.

I personally will never forgive Adam Silver or the NBA for forcing the Hawks to essentially forfeit multiple games while other teams did not. They got their games rescheduled. And when the NBA finally let guys come back earlier...somehow the Hawks, the most affected team BY FAR, were not given the new guidelines. For reasons that only make sense if the NBA was actively trying to sabotage the Hawks we were forced to go by the old guidelines.

As we saw this did not "balance" itself out because other teams had nowhere near as bad of a time with covid as we did especially considering their different guidelines regarding players being able to return. 

At worst, they could've at least acknowledged that certain teams were gonna invariably get screwed royally by the shift to forcing non-NBA players to represent the team.

Those games shouldn't count the same as real games.

And the gall of people to keep saying, 'bwah everybody had to deal with it' and, 'duh, it'll all balance out in the end'.

It's intellectually dishonest to keep acting like that's the case.

[Sothron]

2 minutes ago, kg01 said:

At worst, they could've at least acknowledged that certain teams were gonna invariably get screwed royally by the shift to forcing non-NBA players to represent the team.

Those games shouldn't count the same as real games.

And the gall of people to keep saying, 'bwah everybody had to deal with it' and, 'duh, it'll all balance out in the end'.

It's intellectually dishonest to keep acting like that's the case.

Trust me, every time one of the giblets on realgm says "but but every team has deal with covid this year!" I just want to throw up on them. No, every team did NOT deal with it like the Hawks did.

[macdaddy]

When we had 10+ players who weren't really on the roster it became a joke.   How can that count in the loss column?  

[kg01]

8 minutes ago, Sothron said:

Trust me, every time one of the giblets on realgm says "but but every team has deal with covid this year!" I just want to throw up on them. No, every team did NOT deal with it like the Hawks did.

And it's why I have zero sympathy for teams that have players out now.  None.  Zilch.

Hate to see guys hurt/sick but, from a team standpoint, I got no cares.

[sturt]

Research Methods 501... and virtually all 9th grade science classes... make plain that just because you have the same treatment (in this case, covid), doesn't mean you should expect the same outcome of Subject A, B, C etc... unless you have twins sharing the same DNA, it's more likely, in fact, that there will be differences in outcomes.

That's why the whole idea of saying "everyone else had to deal with covid as much as the Hawks" is specious... the Hawks and every other team have their own DNA... they are not twins.

 

Moreover, I don't see it talked about very much, but from infected player to infected player... some got hit hard, some barely if at all had any symptoms... some who got hit hard were still dealing with after effects for awhile, others came back fairly quickly.

And yes, certainly it makes it that much more confounding when some teams, not all, were given a pass and didn't have to play all of their games during that time. In the Western Conference, the 10th best team is going to end up with about 30 fewer wins than #1... BUT... in the Eastern as we know, that number is going to be only about 10... so having a 6-week period in a season when teams were having to deal with that necessarily impacted the outcome in the Eastern in a big way.

 

The only somewhat valid measure one can make is the one I've been making.... what's the comparison of a given team during the time when their starting line-up was affected, and when it wasn't. From team to team, that will vary, obviously.

For ATL, it's been the difference between playing .272 ball vs. playing .625 ball.

 

[sturt]

41 minutes ago, macdaddy said:

When we had 10+ players who weren't really on the roster it became a joke.   How can that count in the loss column?  

Only solution I could figure was exactly where that comment is going... no losses counted during that time, only wins.... so it at least would mitigate somewhat the effect, and of course, not everyone ends the year with 82 games, so you naturally let W/L% dictate the final standings.

 

[AHF]

37 minutes ago, macdaddy said:

When we had 10+ players who weren't really on the roster it became a joke.   How can that count in the loss column?  

I think some of it was self-inflicted and point the finger at Travis for this.  Other teams made sure they ran too low on players and forced the league to reschedule games.  Travis was doing the "right" thing and going out and quickly filling our roster with g-league talent so that we were ready to go even when our team was like 3 actual players from our roster.  

I've never spoken to TS but I'd bet that he would admit he should have done some of the game playing that other teams did to protect themselves during this part of the schedule with the benefit of hindsight.

Like this:

Quote

The league announced the Heat "do not have the league-required eight available players to proceed with the game against the Spurs."

Earlier in the day, the Heat announced reported players Zylan Cheatham, Max Strus, P.J. Tucker and Gabe Vincent were all placed in the health protocols. The list is now at six, including Kyle Lowry and Udonis Haslem. 

Despite having Butler, Robinson, Herro, etc. the Heat made sure they kept their roster right at the exact minimum 8 players so that as soon as one more player was lost they would have to get the game cancelled.

Then they didn't return to the court until 12/31 when Lowry was back and they had, again, a significant core of key players like Butler, Lowry, Herro, Martin, and the minutes being played by g-league fill-ins was more like 25% of the total 240 minutes. That 12/31 game the Heat saw exactly 63 minutes out of the 240 played that were filled by fill-in players.  Meaning that 26.2% of the minutes were played by fill-ins and 73.8% of the minutes were played by rotations regulars.

Contrast that to the Hawks on that same night even with Trae, Cap and Reddish (all rotation regulars when healthy) and the Hawks saw 146 of the 240 minutes played by fill-in players.  Meaning that 60.8% of the minutes were played by fill-ins and 39.2% were played by guys who played anyway when the team was healthy.  

Think about that.  The Heat can play almost 75% of the game with regular members of their rotation and still get a game canceled because they refused to fill out their roster while the Hawks playing almost the reverse with the vast majority of minutes going to guys who never play during a healthy roster and we don't get any games canceled.  

All because their GM kept things at a bare minimum and we swamped our roster with g-leaguers.  Like look at the same period in time again.  Denver Nuggets played on 12/28.  They played 100% of their minutes with guys they have played all season on that night.  Two days later, they have to postpone a game because they "don't have enough players."  

Then they return to the floor on 1/1 and how many minutes are being filled by non-regulars when they were so desperate that they couldn't even field a minimum numbers of players a couple of nights earlier?  26%.  Even when stretched to the point of not being able to play, they go from 12/28 with 100% of minutes played by regular to 1/1 with 74% of minutes played by regulars (and I'm counting Bol Bol as a non-regular even though they were playing him fairly regularly pre-corona a month earlier).

We didn't manage this right as far as giving ourselves a level playing field.  

[sturt]

27 minutes ago, AHF said:

We didn't manage this right as far as giving ourselves a level playing field.

I'd say the same thing but differently... Adam Silver didn't manage this right as far as giving teams a level playing field.

 

Should TS have seen what his peers were doing and have mirrored their roster tactics? Probably. But he shouldn't have been put in that position in the first place to have to make those decisions.

To chide TS is to deflect some blame, and to me, the FULL blame MUST be left in the lap of the people who caused the whole dire unfair scenario.