Final and most-bottom line of the *real* 2021-22 Hawks (regular season edition)

[sturt]

[benhillboy]

On one hand I don’t want to give any excuses, every team had to deal with Covid gutting their lineups to varying degrees.

On the other hand yeah this team should be expected to win around that .620 clip based on what they’ve shown when healthy the past two seasons.

[NBASupes]

It was a lot going wrong in that frame. Injuries. COVID. It was rough.

[kg01]

13 minutes ago, benhillboy said:

On one hand I don’t want to give any excuses, every team had to deal with Covid gutting their lineups to varying degrees.

On the other hand yeah this team should be expected to win around that .620 clip based on what they’ve shown when healthy the past two seasons.

stahhp.  Not every team had 20+ games effected.  The impact was so disparate, in this case, no other team was even remotely equivalent.

That's not to say they played well all year, because they didn't.  But that covid stretch defined this season's outcome in more ways than ... certain folks want to recognize.

[benhillboy]

The defense never gelled due to Clint, Dre, OO, and Delon not playing together until 2/3 of the season was done.  Luckily Trae carried the offense and allowed the Hawks to squeak in there.  I had my sights set on a +6 point differential and Top 10 in both offense and defense.  Oh well we’ll get em next year f&@k Covid man.

Some advanced tidbits:

Trae ended with his highest WS/ 48 of the season at .181, steady incline from rookie season.

Kevin had a disappointing year but a .559 eFG is nothing to sneeze at.

OO with the highest WS/48 on the team as I expected (.202)  Just don’t want to see him stagnated because our staff can’t cut down on his fouling or gradually develop his offensive set.

Delon was an advanced darling.  126 O Rating and a 112 D Rating because only Tyus Jones played with a better mix of defending without fouling and playmaking without turning.  They were the BU equivalents to DeJonte Murray and Chris f&@kin Paul.

[REHawksFan]

3 hours ago, sturt said:

I WANT to agree with you, but then I remember recent snafus such as losing twice to the Pistons at the end of the year, blowing the games vs Miami or Charlotte LATE in the 4th, or looking lousy vs NOP at home.  The Hawks had more good outings later in the year than bad outings, but they were still pretty dang schizo even when mostly healthy.  

My hope is and always has been that once the play-in starts, the focus will dial in defensively, Trae will go bananas offensively, and we'll get enough from the supporting cast to make it a fun and interesting ride.   

[Diesel]

10 minutes ago, REHawksFan said:

I WANT to agree with you, but then I remember recent snafus such as losing twice to the Pistons at the end of the year, blowing the games vs Miami or Charlotte LATE in the 4th, or looking lousy vs NOP at home.  The Hawks had more good outings later in the year than bad outings, but they were still pretty dang schizo even when mostly healthy.  

My hope is and always has been that once the play-in starts, the focus will dial in defensively, Trae will go bananas offensively, and we'll get enough from the supporting cast to make it a fun and interesting ride.   

Hey..

Every team lose games to teams that they were not supposed to lose.   Detroit won a little more than 20 games.   They beat some teams that they were not supposed to beat... Same with NOP.

We did lose some heartbreakers against Miami and Charlotte.

However, that doesn't change the fact that we had to play G-Leaguers and 3rd stringers in games that mattered.   Games we could have otherwise won had we played our regular rotation. 

 

 

[REHawksFan]

5 minutes ago, Diesel said:

Hey..

Every team lose games to teams that they were not supposed to lose.   Detroit won a little more than 20 games.   They beat some teams that they were not supposed to beat... Same with NOP.

We did lose some heartbreakers against Miami and Charlotte.

However, that doesn't change the fact that we had to play G-Leaguers and 3rd stringers in games that mattered.   Games we could have otherwise won had we played our regular rotation. 

 

 

I'm aware.  It's just that losing those games to teams they shouldn't have and blowing leads is not a huge deal when you are 20 games over .500 and comfortably in the top 6.  But for the Hawks, it meant going from an outside shot at the 6 seed to the 9 seed and hoping to make it into the real playoffs.  So it hurt more.  And it's precisely because the NBA didn't cancel the Hawks games early on during their COVID issues like they did for other teams.  

I'm just saying I'd feel better about the position we are in if they had not lost those games late in the season once healthy.  They were still a pretty Jeckyll / Hyde team when healthy. 

[sturt]

31 minutes ago, REHawksFan said:

then I remember recent snafus

1. That's practically every team this season... it's ridiculous who's beaten who.

2. Even taking that into account and saying what record we should have accumulated... then you're talking, what, 6 games lost that should have been wins?... so, that's good for #1 in the EC.

3. I subscribe to the Parcells mantra... you are what your record says you are... and when our real team played, we were .621.

[Diesel]

Date	Start (ET)				Opponent			Tm	Opp	W	L	Streak	Notes
1	Wed, Oct 20, 2021	7:00p		Box Score		Chicago Bulls	L		88	94	0	1	L 1
2	Sat, Oct 23, 2021	8:00p		Box Score	@	Chicago Bulls	L		82	97	0	2	L 2
3	Mon, Oct 25, 2021	7:30p		Box Score	@	Atlanta Hawks	L		104	122	0	3	L 3
4	Thu, Oct 28, 2021	7:00p		Box Score	@	Philadelphia 76ers	L		102	110	0	4	L 4
5	Sat, Oct 30, 2021	7:00p		Box Score		Orlando Magic	W		110	103	1	4	W 1
6	Sun, Oct 31, 2021	7:30p		Box Score	@	Brooklyn Nets	L		91	117	1	5	L 1
7	Tue, Nov 2, 2021	7:00p		Box Score		Milwaukee Bucks	L		89	117	1	6	L 2
8	Thu, Nov 4, 2021	7:00p		Box Score		Philadelphia 76ers	L		98	109	1	7	L 3
9	Fri, Nov 5, 2021	7:00p		Box Score		Brooklyn Nets	L		90	96	1	8	L 4
10	Wed, Nov 10, 2021	7:30p		Box Score	@	Houston Rockets	W		112	104	2	8	W 1
11	Fri, Nov 12, 2021	7:30p		Box Score	@	Cleveland Cavaliers	L		78	98	2	9	L 1
12	Sat, Nov 13, 2021	7:30p		Box Score	@	Toronto Raptors	W		127	121	3	9	W 1
13	Mon, Nov 15, 2021	7:00p		Box Score		Sacramento Kings	L		107	129	3	10	L 1
14	Wed, Nov 17, 2021	7:00p		Box Score		Indiana Pacers	W		97	89	4	10	W 1
15	Fri, Nov 19, 2021	7:00p		Box Score		Golden State Warriors	L		102	105	4	11	L 1
16	Sun, Nov 21, 2021	6:00p		Box Score		Los Angeles Lakers	L		116	121	4	12	L 2
17	Tue, Nov 23, 2021	7:00p		Box Score		Miami Heat	L		92	100	4	13	L 3
18	Wed, Nov 24, 2021	8:00p		Box Score	@	Milwaukee Bucks	L		93	114	4	14	L 4
19	Fri, Nov 26, 2021	3:30p		Box Score	@	Los Angeles Clippers	L		96	107	4	15	L 5
20	Sun, Nov 28, 2021	9:30p		Box Score	@	Los Angeles Lakers	L		106	110	4	16	L 6
G	Date	Start (ET)				Opponent			Tm	Opp	W	L	Streak	Notes
21	Tue, Nov 30, 2021	10:00p		Box Score	@	Portland Trail Blazers	L		92	110	4	17	L 7
22	Thu, Dec 2, 2021	9:00p		Box Score	@	Phoenix Suns	L		103	114	4	18	L 8
23	Mon, Dec 6, 2021	7:00p		Box Score		Oklahoma City Thunder	L		103	114	4	19	L 9
24	Wed, Dec 8, 2021	7:00p		Box Score		Washington Wizards	L	OT	116	119	4	20	L 10
25	Fri, Dec 10, 2021	8:00p		Box Score	@	New Orleans Pelicans	L		93	109	4	21	L 11
26	Sun, Dec 12, 2021	6:00p		Box Score		Brooklyn Nets	L		104	116	4	22	L 12
27	Thu, Dec 16, 2021	7:00p		Box Score	@	Indiana Pacers	L		113	122	4	23	L 13
28	Sat, Dec 18, 2021	12:00p		Box Score		Houston Rockets	L		107	116	4	24	L 14
29	Sun, Dec 19, 2021	6:00p		Box Score		Miami Heat	W		100	90	5	24	W 1
30	Tue, Dec 21, 2021	7:30p		Box Score	@	New York Knicks	L		91	105	5	25	L 1
31	Thu, Dec 23, 2021	7:30p		Box Score	@	Miami Heat	L		112	115	5	26	L 2
32	Sun, Dec 26, 2021	7:00p		Box Score	@	San Antonio Spurs	L		109	144	5	27	L 3
33	Wed, Dec 29, 2021	7:00p		Box Score		New York Knicks	L		85	94	5	28	L 4
34	Sat, Jan 1, 2022	7:00p		Box Score		San Antonio Spurs	W	OT	117	116	6	28	W 1
35	Mon, Jan 3, 2022	8:00p		Box Score	@	Milwaukee Bucks	W		115	106	7	28	W 2
36	Wed, Jan 5, 2022	7:00p		Box Score	@	Charlotte Hornets	L		111	140	7	29	L 1
37	Thu, Jan 6, 2022	8:00p		Box Score	@	Memphis Grizzlies	L		88	118	7	30	L 2
38	Sat, Jan 8, 2022	7:00p		Box Score		Orlando Magic	W		97	92	8	30	W 1
39	Mon, Jan 10, 2022	7:00p		Box Score		Utah Jazz	W		126	116	9	30	W 2
40	Tue, Jan 11, 2022	8:00p		Box Score	@	Chicago Bulls	L		87	133	9	31	L 1
G	Date	Start (ET)				Opponent			Tm	Opp	W	L	Streak	Notes
41	Fri, Jan 14, 2022	7:00p		Box Score		Toronto Raptors	W		103	87	10	31	W 1
42	Sun, Jan 16, 2022	1:00p		Box Score		Phoenix Suns	L		108	135	10	32	L 1
43	Tue, Jan 18, 2022	10:00p		Box Score	@	Golden State Warriors	L		86	102	10	33	L 2
44	Wed, Jan 19, 2022	10:00p		Box Score	@	Sacramento Kings	W		133	131	11	33	W 1
45	Fri, Jan 21, 2022	9:00p		Box Score	@	Utah Jazz	L		101	111	11	34	L 1
46	Sun, Jan 23, 2022	8:00p		Box Score	@	Denver Nuggets	L		111	117	11	35	L 2
47	Tue, Jan 25, 2022	7:00p		Box Score		Denver Nuggets	L		105	110	11	36	L 3
48	Fri, Jan 28, 2022	7:00p		Box Score	@	Orlando Magic	L		103	119	11	37	L 4
49	Sun, Jan 30, 2022	6:00p		Box Score		Cleveland Cavaliers	W		115	105	12	37	W 1
50	Tue, Feb 1, 2022	7:00p		Box Score		New Orleans Pelicans	L		101	111	12	38	L 1
51	Thu, Feb 3, 2022	7:00p		Box Score		Minnesota Timberwolves	L		117	128	12	39	L 2
52	Fri, Feb 4, 2022	7:00p		Box Score		Boston Celtics	L		93	102	12	40	L 3
53	Sun, Feb 6, 2022	3:30p		Box Score	@	Minnesota Timberwolves	L		105	118	12	41	L 4
54	Tue, Feb 8, 2022	8:30p		Box Score	@	Dallas Mavericks	L		86	116	12	42	L 5
55	Thu, Feb 10, 2022	7:00p		Box Score		Memphis Grizzlies	L		107	132	12	43	L 6
56	Fri, Feb 11, 2022	7:00p		Box Score		Charlotte Hornets	L		119	141	12	44	L 7
57	Mon, Feb 14, 2022	7:00p		Box Score	@	Washington Wizards	L		94	103	12	45	L 8
58	Wed, Feb 16, 2022	7:30p		Box Score	@	Boston Celtics	W		112	111	13	45	W 1
59	Thu, Feb 24, 2022	7:00p		Box Score		Cleveland Cavaliers	W		106	103	14	45	W 2
60	Sat, Feb 26, 2022	12:00p		Box Score		Boston Celtics	L		104	113	14	46	L 1
G	Date	Start (ET)				Opponent			Tm	Opp	W	L	Streak	Notes
61	Sun, Feb 27, 2022	7:00p		Box Score	@	Charlotte Hornets	W	OT	127	126	15	46	W 1
62	Tue, Mar 1, 2022	7:00p		Box Score	@	Washington Wizards	L		113	116	15	47	L 1
63	Thu, Mar 3, 2022	7:30p		Box Score	@	Toronto Raptors	W		108	106	16	47	W 1
64	Fri, Mar 4, 2022	7:00p		Box Score		Indiana Pacers	W		111	106	17	47	W 2
65	Mon, Mar 7, 2022	7:00p		Box Score		Atlanta Hawks	W	OT	113	110	18	47	W 3
66	Wed, Mar 9, 2022	7:00p		Box Score		Chicago Bulls	L		108	114	18	48	L 1
67	Fri, Mar 11, 2022	7:30p		Box Score	@	Boston Celtics	L		103	114	18	49	L 2
68	Sun, Mar 13, 2022	3:00p		Box Score		Los Angeles Clippers	L		102	106	18	50	L 3
69	Tue, Mar 15, 2022	7:30p		Box Score	@	Miami Heat	L		98	105	18	51	L 4
70	Thu, Mar 17, 2022	7:00p		Box Score	@	Orlando Magic	W		134	120	19	51	W 1
71	Sat, Mar 19, 2022	8:00p		Box Score	@	Cleveland Cavaliers	L		109	113	19	52	L 1
72	Mon, Mar 21, 2022	7:00p		Box Score		Portland Trail Blazers	L		115	119	19	53	L 2
73	Wed, Mar 23, 2022	7:00p		Box Score		Atlanta Hawks	W		122	101	20	53	W 1
74	Fri, Mar 25, 2022	7:00p		Box Score		Washington Wizards	L		97	100	20	54	L 1
75	Sun, Mar 27, 2022	3:30p		Box Score		New York Knicks	L		102	104	20	55	L 2
76	Tue, Mar 29, 2022	7:30p		Box Score	@	Brooklyn Nets	L		123	130	20	56	L 3
77	Thu, Mar 31, 2022	7:00p		Box Score		Philadelphia 76ers	W		102	94	21	56	W 1
78	Fri, Apr 1, 2022	8:00p		Box Score	@	Oklahoma City Thunder	W		110	101	22	56	W 2
79	Sun, Apr 3, 2022	5:00p		Box Score	@	Indiana Pacers	W		121	117	23	56	W 3
80	Wed, Apr 6, 2022	7:00p		Box Score		Dallas Mavericks	L		113	131	23	57	L 1
G	Date	Start (ET)				Opponent			Tm	Opp	W	L	Streak	Notes
81	Fri, Apr 8, 2022	7:00p		Box Score		Milwaukee Bucks	L		101	131	23	58	L 2
82	Sun, Apr 10, 2022	7:00p		Box Score	@	Philadelphia 76ers	L		106	118	23

 

I have highlighted the Detroit Piston's season for you.   Why?  So I can emphasis the games that they won that they should not have won.   Did you know that they have beaten Toronto 3 times.  Had Toronto won  those 3 games, they would be in the #2 position instead of 5th.  Detroit also beat Milwaukee and Philly and Miami. 

Lastly, you said RE.. that the Hawks were Jekyl and Hyde beside the COVIDGATE??? I disagree.  I agree with the writers... we were a 62.1% winning team aside from COVIDGATE.

 

 

[REHawksFan]

2 minutes ago, sturt said:

1. That's practically every team this season... it's ridiculous who's beaten who.

2. Even taking that into account and saying what record we should have accumulated... then you're talking, what, 6 games lost that should have been wins?... so, that's good for #1 in the EC.

3. I subscribe to the Parcells mantra... you are what your record says you are... and when our real team played, we were .621.

I know the .621 includes those blown games.  I'm not saying that haven't played well.  I'm just saying the .621 isn't all that comforting for me because of those blown games and the Hawks find themselves in a position where they don't have the luxury of a 7 game series right off the bat.  They start with 2 straight elimination games which means there's ZERO room for one of those blown lead games.  That's all.  

[Sothron]

This is what the idiots on BSPN and other idiots that cover the NBA or post on realgm never understand or refuse to understand. The Hawks season was destroyed by covid and injuries. No team had more covid issues than we did. I will never forget when we had SIXTEEN players out at the same time from covid and injuries. 

And we still had to play games. Games that counted against healthy NBA teams. Our team without covid is a 50-55 win team as I predicted before the season.

[sturt]

Just now, REHawksFan said:

I know the .621 includes those blown games.  I'm not saying that haven't played well.  I'm just saying the .621 isn't all that comforting for me because of those blown games and the Hawks find themselves in a position where they don't have the luxury of a 7 game series right off the bat.  They start with 2 straight elimination games which means there's ZERO room for one of those blown lead games.  That's all.  

Oh.

Well, I'm not suggesting it necessarily has any meaning to what we'll achieve in post-season... me, I think you can not not  have what most regard as your second best player and still make noise.

(I think we'll beat CHO.  I think we'll beat CLE. And then I think we'll be extremely fortunate if somehow we would beat MIA... don't see that one happening.)

My main thing is this team, yes, has had a wide range of performance even when intact or mostly intact.... but overall, it's a strong team, and still young. I'm expecting big things next season, and concurrently, expecting that we'll progress to the mean in terms of health after two consecutive seasons of chronic ughness.

[Gray Mule]

Sometimes a team will simply blow a game.

Sometimes another team will be hot and win the game.

Sometimes a team that is not very good will have a great night and win.

No one knows.  On any given night - - Yep, sometimes you're the windshield and sometimes you're the bug!  Atlanta sometimes played great.  Sometimes they played not very well.  Too many 4th quarter melt down games brought us to this, the play-in games.  Now, it's stay awake (no sleepwalk) or go home.

[Sothron]

4 hours ago, sturt said:

Btw I am stealing this image to use on twitter and realgm. This deserves to be seen outside the Squawk.

[sturt]

12 minutes ago, Sothron said:

I am stealing this image

Okay, but my copyright lawyer told me to tell you he'll be in touch...

 

[kg01]

41 minutes ago, Sothron said:

This is what the idiots on BSPN and other idiots that cover the NBA or post on realgm never understand or refuse to understand. The Hawks season was destroyed by covid and injuries. No team had more covid issues than we did. I will never forget when we had SIXTEEN players out at the same time from covid and injuries. 

And we still had to play games. Games that counted against healthy NBA teams. Our team without covid is a 50-55 win team as I predicted before the season.

"Nah, everybody had covid ... blah, blah, blah ..." - Guys who ignore the facts, RgMers, and MIA fans (I won't leave you out, @benhillboy)

19 minutes ago, sturt said:

Okay, but my copyright lawyer told me to tell you he'll be in touch...

 

Caption: "Listen stu, we're gonna take that guy to the cleaners .... who'm I talkin' to again?"

[bleachkit]

Sorry but no one wants to hear it. Win the next two games. 

[thecampster]

Let me post 2 graphics that should tell the tale:

 

Graphic 1: Man games lost through Jan 17th.

 

Graphic 2:  Man games lost through April 8

 

There are 2 takeaways here: 

1) some teams are just better than everyone else (Phoenix lost over 300 man games (7th most) and has a sizeable lost win share bubble (3rd biggest) but has the best record in the league.

2) This is not an accurate representation as the Hawks lost games mostly came by Jan 17th in an extremely short window. With over 175 man games lost by Jan 17 but only about 65 more the next 3 months. Also, Gallo's inspired play has greatly lessened the win share numbers lost by John, gained by Gallo.

 

That said, what Miami, Denver, Phoenix did this year was very impressive.

[thecampster]

One more thought. The Hawks record as of Jan 17 was 17-25.  They went 26-14 the rest of the way. Its pretty obvious that injuries COVID played a major role as did a lack of continuity. We could surprise some folks in the post season but Collins not being in shape isn't going to help.

The playoffs is more of a bruising half court game and we could use another big...we could use 2.