Playoff Ratings and Four Factors

[benhillboy]

Stats courtesy of BBall Ref AKA The Oracle:

Obviously the eFG is much lower and TOV% much higher than in the regular season with the job they’re doing on Trae.  Nice offensive rebounding advantage, very surprising without Clint.  FT/ FGA also up slightly from the regular season.

Bam doesn’t know whether he’s coming or going on offense.  Strus has been a standout defensively, marked improvement this season, and Ded has given them great energy.  Tucker’s high rating is lying somewhat.  Butler’s never has, never will.

 

I knew Point Diff Delon was probably the only Hawk truly built for this series, his ratings are set in stone.  Bogi, Dre, and John have all had flashes of either creating a run for us or stopping one for them.  The big disappointment here is OO though, he had the best rating last season, playing in all 18 games at a sparkling 130 to 107.  Hasn’t sparked a single run.  He made Noel and Dwight look like the younger players, now Ded and company are schooling him.
 

Spo knows when to sit a $90 million dollar player at the end of the bench.  I like Gallo but he clearly should’ve been flexed out the rotation.  -30 is nuts the speed is killing him after excelling last season also in slower paced series’.  Skylar Mays would no doubt be a rotational player for the heat and as some posters have stated Dieng should be getting more run.

Edited April 20, 2022 by benhillboy

[Plainview1981]

50 minutes ago, benhillboy said:

Stats courtesy of BBall Ref AKA The Oracle:

Obviously the eFG is much lower and TOV% much higher than in the regular season with the job they’re doing on Trae.  Nice offensive rebounding advantage, very surprising without Clint.  FT/ FGA also up slightly from the regular season.

Bam doesn’t know whether he’s coming or going on offense.  Strus has been a standout defensively, marked improvement this season, and Ded has given them great energy.  Tucker’s high rating is lying somewhat.  Butler’s never has, never will.

 

I knew Point Diff Delon was probably the only Hawk truly built for this series, his ratings are set in stone.  Bogi, Dre, and John have all had flashes of either creating a run for us or stopping one for them.  The big disappointment here is OO though, he had the best rating last season, playing in all 18 games at a sparkling 130 to 107.  Hasn’t sparked a single run.  He made Noel and Dwight look like the younger players, now Ded and company are schooling him.
 

Spo knows when to sit a $90 million dollar player at the end of the bench.  I like Gallo but he clearly should’ve been flexed out the rotation.  -30 is nuts the speed is killing him after excelling last season also in slower paced series’.  Skylar Mays would no doubt be a rotational player for the heat and as some posters have stated Dieng should be getting more run.

Schlenk has done a poor job altogether.

He should be gone as soon as this series is over. Fired.

[NBASupes]

Trae been awful. Exposed without Capela. And Clint ain't even great. 

Delon proved his worth with his play in the playin as well as his lockdown of Herro.

Bogi offense has been our saving grace but his defense has been trash.

While I don't agree that Hunter been very good offensively and terrible defensively, I do think he's been average on offense and good on defense via eye test. 

Okongwu impact has been bad and the eye test agrees. 

Gallo been awful but the matchup is tough for him.

JC clearly has helped us. 

I would like to see Dieng get PT.

[macdaddy]

Gallo 2 games stats look awful because he put up an 0-fer last night.   They were all good shots that he usually makes so it's not about the D being too tough for him.  He just laid an egg.   If he hadn't we would have won the game.  

No one going to mention Kev?   Yeah i know 6 assists right?   The dude ain't doing enough to warrant his playing time.   We can't beat a good team with wings that are just 'steady'.    Never drives to the basket, never gets to the line, D is just ok.   No one feels Kev.   If Trae or someone isn't T'ing him up he scores zero.   He gets assists because he desperately has to get rid of the ball before someone comes near him.  

[AHF]

1 hour ago, NBASupes said:

Trae been awful. Exposed without Capela. And Clint ain't even great. 

 

You want to bet against him rebounding in Atlanta?  I mean, I think all of us agree that he has struggled against the Heat.  But it isn't like he had Capela when he went off against Cleveland to pull us to a win in that game.

He is an amazing talent but not one that is immune to having a few bad games or struggling with new looks and new levels of targeting being permitted by the refs.  I like him to step up in Atlanta, though.  Don't think he will continue to put up stinkers like these first two even if Cap is out for both of them.  

That said, I do agree with you that Trae makes great use of healthy CC and JC and he hasn't had either of them this series and that hurts.  (JC is rusty and clearly not 100%; CC out completely).  

[hylndr11]

There are def issues with the refs, but the heat are playing very good defensively against us, I've seen a few very in depth break downs and we need to give them credit for that , as such they are very experienced and it should be expected.  Teams are just better at defending us this year. The heat are not cle and are not going to let Trae go off without the threat of the benefits of capella being in.  

[Diesel]

8 minutes ago, hylndr11 said:

There are def issues with the refs, but the heat are playing very good defensively against us, I've seen a few very in depth break downs and we need to give them credit for that , as such they are very experienced and it should be expected.  Teams are just better at defending us this year. The heat are not cle and are not going to let Trae go off without the threat of the benefits of capella being in.  

There's a relationship between how good a defense the Heat can play and what the refs allow.  If the refs allow you to play physically, then you can turn the defense up and look great. 

The refs touched fouled us to death in the first half and therefore, in the second half we were much less aggressive.   There's a relationship. 

So therefore... i can't say both.

I can't applaud Miami for great defense when I know that the refs have been very slow with the whistles for them. 

 

[hylndr11]

I agree, but as of yet other than tweets and one offs.i haven't seen an in depth breakdown of the bias with the refs, yes the obvious stuff is obvious but many on here are making it seem like that's.the only thing going on and maybe it is but I'd like to see more of the little things but I haven't seen much yet 

[AHF]

31 minutes ago, hylndr11 said:

I agree, but as of yet other than tweets and one offs.i haven't seen an in depth breakdown of the bias with the refs, yes the obvious stuff is obvious but many on here are making it seem like that's.the only thing going on and maybe it is but I'd like to see more of the little things but I haven't seen much yet 

We have clearly been outplayed outside of the refs but the refs make things a ton easier for Miami on both sides.  

So it is not all about the actions of the refs but let's look at the impact of that:

Miami commits blatant flagrant fouls and they either go uncalled or are treated like routine plays.  This encourages them to do more of it.  Lowry alone has at least 3 plays that are flagrant risks of serious injury to opponents and were simply ignored by the refs. 

Miami gets routine holding, bumps, etc. uncalled.  This allows them to be much more physical on defense and leads to plays like the "offensive foul" on Trae when Vincent cuts him off, blocks him without being set, bumps him, and then Trae lashes out an arm to try to get the space that he is entitled to as an offensive player and the call reverses and results in a turnover for the Hawks instead of a foul on Miami and a trip to the line when in bonus.

The refs are letting Miami players like Tucker light them up without any reaction.  They are then taking the frustration of even low key guys like Hunter and teeing them up for trying to stand up for themselves.  Obviously Trae is more of a lightning rod but we've all seen the "Jordan rules" comparisons as far as the contact he is absorbing without getting the calls.  When you don't even let the players plead their case and throw technicals at them when you get correctly called out it leaves the players feeling helpless and frustrated.

Think about how this dynamic shifts if the game is called by the book.  Just from game 1:

Butler gets a flagrant or tech for going after Trae's neck.

Lowry is ejected for going after Trae's knees after the whistle.

Herro gets a flagrant 2 for smashing Trae's face on a non-basketball play (reminiscent of Soth's story from his playing days).

When players check and block Trae, the refs whistle them and suddenly the Heat are having to choose between sending him to the line in bonus or playing the rules.

When Butler leads with an elbow to the face, when he initiates contact, etc. he ends up with an offensive foul instead of getting a freebie trip to the line.  Suddenly he is a bit more reluctant to fling himself at the defender and his shot selection changes.

 

Just call the call based on the rule book and the actual play on the floor.  Atlanta will still get called for its share of fouls but the dynamic of the series is materially shifted.

[macdaddy]

To me the real issues so far in this series are

1. we have no healthy bigs that are making an impact

2. Gallo and Kev haven't shown up to play.   

Everyone else is more or less doing their thing.  I guess you could make the case that this is Kev's thing but it aint very good. 

[hylndr11]

Odd seeing Gallo have a bad game he usually.is so consistent but I get a matchup thing for him.here, I'd expect a pretty good game from him on Friday 

[benhillboy]

Updated:

 

We all know Delon and OO are ratings monster no surprise there.  .735 eFG with a 3:1 assist to turnover, no sweat for Point Diff.  F&@k a skills exhibitionist give me a wonderful PLAYER.
 

Glad to see OO make his mark he’s just too rugged a player not to.  Especially when Bam commits some of the same dumb fouls lol.

Stabilizing defenders who have to guard guards and tweener Bigs alike like Dre will always get killed in D Rating due to poor rebounding and steals/ deflections like Klay.  Hasn’t been great in the series by any stretch but hasn’t been awful as his ratings say.

John has been playing valiantly also having to guard a weird mix of Jimmy and PJ while not in game shape.

Traes O Rating is awful but not really an issue.  We have a chance to tie the series with dreadful production from him.  His D Rating, while nothing to write home about, is still 2 points higher than his regular season.   That’s impressive seeing how the heat are a dirty, screening and cutting squad.  Sure there are some lapses in communication you can highlight but all things considered I think he’s competing on the ball, integral in tight games that come down to 1 or 2 possessions.  That’s all we need to get us to a couple nuke drops late.

Bogi gets his ratings right as quick as anyone in the league because he doesn’t f&@k around on offense.  Quick decisions and moves.  If he ever got to the line he’d never be a negative guy.

I didn’t see the first half of Game 3 but judging by his +/- Nate mostly benching Gallo in the second half was critical.  He and Kevin are just outclassed by the speed and footwork of the series.

Edited April 23, 2022 by benhillboy

[Atlantaholic]

Obviously our dreadful game 1 (on short rest) is going to skew the f*** out of all the numbers. People need to chill with this analysis. 

[benhillboy]

Trae is usually guarding Vincent and Martin correct?  They’ve been dreadful having to expend so much energy to bottle him, all he has to do is keep them honest by staying in front.  Herro’s offensive impact is that of Dre on defense: more of a stabilizer than a plus.  He takes too long to attack, the team has to do too much to get him open at times, and their team assists plummet with him on I would suspect.

Off topic but CP3 ‘a ratings this round are 148 to 119.  That guy man.

[benhillboy]

10 minutes ago, Atlantaholic said:

Obviously our dreadful game 1 (on short rest) is going to skew the f*** out of all the numbers. People need to chill with this analysis. 

I been citing ratings all season.  Hawks have played 3 playoff games, you can’t throw one out.  Hawks have no one to blame but themselves for their play-in status and it’s consequences.  Had the Hawks won Game 1 (which was not at all impossible) wouldn’t we be talking about how resilient this team is instead of a schedule loss?  Hindsight is always 20/20.  I’m highlighting how last game greatly improved Bogi and OO’s rolling net and even Traes, I don’t cherry pick these values.  You don’t buy the rating system that’s fine but you’re in error.

Edited April 23, 2022 by benhillboy

[Atlantaholic]

4 minutes ago, benhillboy said:

I been citing ratings all season.  Hawks have played 3 playoff games, you can’t throw one out.  Hawks have no one to blame but themselves for their play-in status and it’s consequences.  Had the Hawks won Game 1 (which was not at all impossible) wouldn’t we be talking about how resilient this team is instead of a schedule loss?  Hindsight is always 20/20.  I’m highlighting how last game greatly improved Bogi and OO’s rolling net and even Traes, I don’t cherry pick these values.  You don’t buy the rating system that’s fine but you’re in error.

lol. Ok. Firstly I have nothing against team ratings, they tell you what they tell you. It's player O and D ratings that are worthless, since ratings are TEAM stats not individual player stats.

If you are going to make judgments on ratings though then you can't just ignore sample size. Looking at a two (and now 3) game sample and saying this proves x or y is ridiculous. Bringing up game 1 because it's clearly an outlier, it was our second worst blowout in the entire 82+ game season. You take ANY 3 game sample that includes your worst performance in 82+ games and it's going to be a tad skewed for evaluation purposes? No?

Last year Butler sucked in the playoffs, a 4 game sample. What does that tell us about Butler and his ability to play in the playoffs? Nothing.

If we want to get a better feel about how our team can do in the playoffs let's look at the last two years worth of playoff games where we at least have a real sample of 20 games. Even then of course, we are comparing two different teams, slightly perhaps, but still different. Fact is looking at playoff numbers when we are talking about a single series or a handful of games doesn't tell you anything. All it takes is one really good game to completely change everything. 

[benhillboy]

Nothing new or surprising.  Jimmy and PJ controlling the series while Delon showcases his value to off-season suitors.  Bogi, OO, and Bam been admirable in spots.  Dre’s game score shows he’s hasn’t been great but is a stabilizer.  Ded’s short minutes been super efficient.

Herro and Kevin been pure minuses.

Edited April 25, 2022 by benhillboy