Ayton, Capela, or Gobert

[AHF]

I'll be honest that I'm going to be excited about our team in any of those 3 scenarios.  Capela is the least exciting player for me but the best contract / cap situation.  I would kind of like to see us hold onto JC and our wings and see how we shake out if we keep CC. 

Gobert is the most exciting player and an upgrade on both ends.  I kind of assume in that scenario we are shipping out CC and Bogi but what else do we need to send with them?  Not sure we really have picks to throw around but maybe our 2023 pick would make sense.

Ayton seems to fit well with JC in an Ayton for CC scenario and the recent talk about potentially bringing Ayton in on a 4 year, ~$100M scenario would be really exciting.

Hawks are going to be exciting to watch under any of these scenarios.  

[marco102]

Does Chris have sources? 

[thecampster]

5 minutes ago, marco102 said:

But again, after this year, you're not locked in at the tax apron which is what a sign and trade does for Ayton this year. 

In future years, you can still go above it to sign your own players whereas if it occurred this year the team is capped at the tax apron. That's the distinction I'm trying to clarify.  

The way you wrote it before you're saying your stuck at the tax apron for every future year after the trade, but you're not because you can clear it to sign OO, Hunter, JJ, Cooper, and AG. 

I'll add you'll have one hell of a tax bill though which practically will not happen unless championships are won. 

Of for Pete's sake.  How the F$%^ do you plan to get more salary then?  Can you sign a $15 million player? No!....If an opportunity to trade someone for a 25% upgrade happens this year that would push you to $160mil  can you do it? No!...You can only sign minimums, use 125%+100k trades, etc.  Same thing with Gobert or Ayton as far as signings this year but your trade/exemption options are different. Because your floor with Ayton is lower due to his lower salary + BYC status and the add on salaries this year can't push you over $156 so any "options" you have to spend more this year for a multiyear player can't be used and those players/salaries carry over to next year. You aren't going to sign vets on multi year minimums, so you're stuck this year.  It does hamstring you going forward because you can't take advantage this year and those players/salaries aren't carried forward. 

[marco102]

9 minutes ago, thecampster said:

Of for Pete's sake.  How the F$%^ do you plan to get more salary then?  Can you sign a $15 million player? No!....If an opportunity to trade someone for a 25% upgrade happens this year that would push you to $160mil  can you do it? No!...You can only sign minimums, use 125%+100k trades, etc.  Same thing with Gobert or Ayton as far as signings this year but your trade/exemption options are different. Because your floor with Ayton is lower due to his lower salary + BYC status and the add on salaries this year can't push you over $156 so any "options" you have to spend more this year for a multiyear player can't be used and those players/salaries carry over to next year. You aren't going to sign vets on multi year minimums, so you're stuck this year.  It does hamstring you going forward because you can't take advantage this year and those players/salaries aren't carried forward. 

Not sure why you're getting upset.  I'm just saying I wanted you to clarify for others that you are not stuck at the tax apron going forward which is it seems like you were implying before.  There's a distinction because it makes the Ayton trade look more restrictive than it is going forward even though both are restrictive in the future, but Ayton much more this year.. 

Again, I fully understand what you are saying with $165 vs $156.

[ShooterSays]

If OO is an untouchable member of the core…Ayton makes the most sense on this list. 

[RandomFan]

1 hour ago, thecampster said:

@JayBirdHawk

For the Gobert vs Ayton math folks.

Trade Capela for Ayton....the salaries match for trading purposes but Ayton will make 11 million more so for Cap purposes, our cap goes up $11 million pushing us right up to the apron meaning we have to give up 1 high priced player in a salary dump anyway (JC, Bogi, Huerter). But you are still over the cap if you dump Bogi for a pick and save $7 million over trading for Gobert. But you now have the limit of the Apron you can't exceed, even at the trade deadline/waiver wire deadline.

Trade Capela + Bogi for Gobert = Salary hit is pretty much zero.  From a flexibility standpoint, you can still use your tax payer MLE, you can sign players off the waiver wire without restriction at the trade deadline and you can take back 125% salaries at the trade deadline because there is no limit if you don't use that MLE.

 

From a flexibility standpoint, even though Ayton is technically cheaper by $7 mil, you are limited for a year in flexibility. Neither really changes your flexibility after that.

I know you know this, but posting for the board regarding Ayton, it's fair to point out this is based on a max 4 year contract. It changes things dramatically if he doesn't get the max he's looking for, but instead is signed to something like a 4 year $100m to 110m contract. (This is all assuming PHX wouldn't just match a less than max offer instead of trading him, which who knows if they would or wouldn't) I only bring this up because of the many rumors that nobody seems to want to pay him a max, so this is becoming more of a possibility. 

Getting Ayton on something closer to a $25m yearly avg makes him much more palatable in my view. The big problem would then become trade value to acquire him in the first place, since the first year BYC value at his max contract is barely enough to cover Capela's salary in a trade. A lesser yearly avg would mean they couldn't take Capela back in trade. 

Is it possible to frontload his offer to where he would be paid close to the $30m in his first year and then have the following salaries descending per year? Or at least a reduced flat amount for years 2 thru 4? 

36 minutes ago, MarylandHawk said:

My vote is mostly about OO17. I like OO17 and Ayton starting better than any other combination. 

Very much this. I think the Hawks appear to be very cognizant of getting OO into the starting lineup immediately. It's one of the things that helps explain the "Capela is a goner" tidbit we got from Sothron previously. There are really only 3 reasons Capela should receive that kind of treatment: 1) if he was a malcontent cancer on the team, and we know that's probably not the case; 2) If he's just not worth his contract, and that's probably not the case either; or 3) he needs to be traded to make room for another player as a starter, whether that's someone at his position or if it's someone that isn't a good pairing with him. OO17. 

#3 seems to make the most sense of why the Hawks would be pushing to move Capela off the roster. I personally think Big O should just be moved into the starting lineup at C, but with how much the Hawks have flirted with Gobert and Ayton, apparently they don't think so. But I would love for Okongwu to be our starting center since I think he's a 1 inch shorter and younger version of Bam Adebayo; and Bam is the best defensive center in the game when you consider the whole package of what defense is in today's NBA. 

No, he's not as good of an individual defender of bigs as Gobert, but notice I said considering the whole package of what defense is in today's NBA. Which is much much more than just banging with other centers and/or being an elite rim protector. Playing team defense is much more valuable than individual defense. And being scheme flexible, not being relegated to playing drop coverage, is much more valuable than individual defense. Being able to be effective as an individual defender at the 5, and ALSO be able to switch and guard 1 thru 5 effectively makes what Bam brings to a team as a defender infinitely more valuable than the better individual defender versus centers in Gobert. 

It's for that reason I still would rather see Big O as our starting center instead of at power forward. Because having him at power forward, while extremely valuable on defense, it robs us of what could be a top 2 or 3 center in terms of defensive impact. 

 

 

[GameTime]

2 hours ago, Bigjmw said:

While Ayton is not elite Defensively, he is definitely above average. His ability to spread the floor opens up both Trae and Murray's ability to attack the basket and find open guys. If we find a way to get Ayton without using JC, Collins could become the elite rim runner he was before Capella showed up. He would remain a 18/10 guy on good efficiency  with the roster shake up

I would suggest that Ayton is a better overall defender now (don't give me rookie season numbers; he has improved greatly every year) than the Capela we saw take the court last year. Capela was a better shot blocker thats it. People forget that Ayton anchored Top 3 defenses and a Finals contender. Ayton is also improving every year while Capela is declining. Getting Ayton with Murray tremendously increases the potential of this squad. Ayton and Murray are both All-Star talent entering the prime of their careers. Add that to Trae and we look scary for the next 5-8 years.

[shakes]

2 hours ago, kg01 said:

Due to his contract, "reasonable" is out the window on Gobert.

"reasonable" has long been out the window with you too, but it has nothing to do with your contract.

[shakes]

1 hour ago, nathan2331 said:

So you really think the Suns have made the Finals and have had one of the best records in the West recently with a defensive liability at C?

hmm, it's almost as if they have other players in the lineup who play great defense.  Also I heard that Chris Paul guy is a pretty good leader on both sides of the ball.

 

 

[AHF]

35 minutes ago, RandomFan said:

(This is all assuming PHX wouldn't just match a less than max offer instead of trading him, which who knows if they would or wouldn't)

Good question on at what exact salary level we can no longer use CC as the Hawks' contribution.

Just pointing out that matching comes up if he signs an offer sheet with another team but doesn't come up in a SnT scenario which is the only remotely realistic scenario where he is a Hawk next year.

[kg01]

3 minutes ago, shakes said:

"reasonable" has long been out the window with you too, but it has nothing to do with your contract.

Thanks, man ...... that means a lot, shakes. 

[JayBirdHawk]

9 minutes ago, AHF said:

Good question on at what exact salary level we can no longer use CC as the Hawks' contribution.

Just pointing out that matching comes up if he signs an offer sheet with another team but doesn't come up in a SnT scenario which is the only remotely realistic scenario where he is a Hawk next year.

Phoenix can only take back ~$18 million (BYC applies to Ayton) regardless of what the RFA offer is.  Hawks will need to clear salary out depending on high his incoming salary is to stay below the hard cap of $155 million.

[aali34]

2 hours ago, Ropadope said:

I’m sure he’s a great addition. But really, just he and Capela in the starting unit are defensive minded. And who other than Capela has a physical presence?  

Dejounte averaged 8 rebounds as a guard, thats extremely impressive and makes up for Dre's lack of rebounding. JC and Clint are elite rebounders for their position so on that front we're golden.

Dre Dejounte and Clint are all defensive minded, JC isn't at their level, but he's no slouch and solid as a help defender. He might even get better since he won't have to worry about protecting both Trae and Huerter at the same time.

OO off the bench is also physical, I'm not too worried.

[RandomFan]

10 minutes ago, JayBirdHawk said:

Phoenix can only take back ~$18 million (BYC applies to Ayton) regardless of what the RFA offer is.  Hawks will need to clear salary out depending on high his incoming salary is to stay below the hard cap of $155 million.

So the BYC is a flat rate, not percentage based? If so that definitely helps us. 

[JayBirdHawk]

Just now, RandomFan said:

So the BYC is a flat rate, not percentage based? If so that definitely helps us. 

actually no - it's 50% of his new salary plus the 120% plus 100K.

[AHF]

11 minutes ago, JayBirdHawk said:

actually no - it's 50% of his new salary plus the 120% plus 100K.

So if Capela's salary is $18,206,897

Then that would mean a minimum salary of x: 

.5x*120%+100k = $18,206,897

.6x=$18,106,897

x=$30,178.161.7

 

[RandomFan]

20 minutes ago, JayBirdHawk said:

actually no - it's 50% of his new salary plus the 120% plus 100K.

 

8 minutes ago, AHF said:

So if Capela's salary is $18,206,897

Then that would mean a minimum salary of x: 

.5x*120%+100k = $18,206,897

.6x=$18,106,897

x=$30,178.161.7

 

So yeah, still seems like we'd have to frontload his contract, if that is at all possible. 

[thecampster]

1 hour ago, RandomFan said:

I know you know this, but posting for the board regarding Ayton, it's fair to point out this is based on a max 4 year contract. It changes things dramatically if he doesn't get the max he's looking for, but instead is signed to something like a 4 year $100m to 110m contract. (This is all assuming PHX wouldn't just match a less than max offer instead of trading him, which who knows if they would or wouldn't) I only bring this up because of the many rumors that nobody seems to want to pay him a max, so this is becoming more of a possibility. 

Getting Ayton on something closer to a $25m yearly avg makes him much more palatable in my view. The big problem would then become trade value to acquire him in the first place, since the first year BYC value at his max contract is barely enough to cover Capela's salary in a trade. A lesser yearly avg would mean they couldn't take Capela back in trade. 

Is it possible to frontload his offer to where he would be paid close to the $30m in his first year and then have the following salaries descending per year? Or at least a reduced flat amount for years 2 thru 4? 

Very much this. I think the Hawks appear to be very cognizant of getting OO into the starting lineup immediately. It's one of the things that helps explain the "Capela is a goner" tidbit we got from Sothron previously. There are really only 3 reasons Capela should receive that kind of treatment: 1) if he was a malcontent cancer on the team, and we know that's probably not the case; 2) If he's just not worth his contract, and that's probably not the case either; or 3) he needs to be traded to make room for another player as a starter, whether that's someone at his position or if it's someone that isn't a good pairing with him. OO17. 

#3 seems to make the most sense of why the Hawks would be pushing to move Capela off the roster. I personally think Big O should just be moved into the starting lineup at C, but with how much the Hawks have flirted with Gobert and Ayton, apparently they don't think so. But I would love for Okongwu to be our starting center since I think he's a 1 inch shorter and younger version of Bam Adebayo; and Bam is the best defensive center in the game when you consider the whole package of what defense is in today's NBA. 

No, he's not as good of an individual defender of bigs as Gobert, but notice I said considering the whole package of what defense is in today's NBA. Which is much much more than just banging with other centers and/or being an elite rim protector. Playing team defense is much more valuable than individual defense. And being scheme flexible, not being relegated to playing drop coverage, is much more valuable than individual defense. Being able to be effective as an individual defender at the 5, and ALSO be able to switch and guard 1 thru 5 effectively makes what Bam brings to a team as a defender infinitely more valuable than the better individual defender versus centers in Gobert. 

It's for that reason I still would rather see Big O as our starting center instead of at power forward. Because having him at power forward, while extremely valuable on defense, it robs us of what could be a top 2 or 3 center in terms of defensive impact. 

 

 

If its even more than a smidge below a max, he is no longer a salary match with Clint....but of course you're figuring that in I'm sure.

[Atlantaholic]

4 hours ago, Cwell said:

Capela has a 37 close shot rating….no badges. Sick of it

If we could get the Capella of two seasons ago it would be no contest as far as value for money. Not sure he can return to that form though, the Achilles thing is probalby chronic.

[RandomFan]

6 minutes ago, thecampster said:

If its even more than a smidge below a max, he is no longer a salary match with Clint....but of course you're figuring that in I'm sure.

Yeah, but the question now becomes can we do a frontloaded contract for him where his 1st year salary reaches that threshold, and then a descending scale after that? I assume the answer is yes, but I don't pretend to know for sure.