2022-23 Hawks Training Camp News and Notes - 09/24/22

[Final_quest]

2 hours ago, benhillboy said:

OO is aware he has irrational super-fans.  I think he’s gonna outperform even my lofty expectations.

What do you see happening with Okongwu this year?

[Spud2nique]

37 minutes ago, Final_quest said:

What do you see happening with Okongwu this year?

Pushing Cap for starting role.

[Spud2nique]

1 hour ago, benhillboy said:

What’s with the owl?  Drake fell off long ago.

I meant I’m the biggest OO fan. It was a joke, nevermind.

[benhillboy]

1 hour ago, Final_quest said:

What do you see happening with Okongwu this year?

His FT+ to bump up a little to a league average 100 (98 last season)

FTr+ can’t get much higher at 196.

FGs added should be over 100.

Blocks should stay about the same, steals up slightly to .7.

The percentage of his attempts from 10-16 feet should increase from 2% to 10% and he should shoot around 45% from there.  Should hit a few big jumpers late slightly outside that range just off confidence.

His career dunk percentage should rise from .251 to about .260 with a healthy off-season.

If Clint is healthy I can’t see a replacement this season but OO’s gotta get 25 minutes per, up 4 from last season.

His offensive rating probably can’t get higher than 138 with an increased role as a non-passer, probably drop to around 133.  But his defensive rating could improve even more (111 to about 108) with more corporate knowledge of players and a quickly-budding defensive relationship with DeJounte just as he did with Delon (who was in 5 of the 7 best lineups for the Hawks last season but I digress

Basketball Reference Per 36 projects his Win Share Per 48 at .173.  They wilding.  He was over .200 for a majority of last season, no reason that changes.  The screening, movement, intensity, individual defense, and offensive glass eating he brings aren’t dependent on any other player, lineups, or chemistry.  He brings on defense what Montrez Harrell does on offense but with a much better head on his shoulders to bring his offense along to compliment while Harrell has always been a positional sieve with super-late awareness.
 

Top 5 finishes for Most Improved and 6th Man are definitely on his radar when the league sees how fluid his midrange is gonna look while yamming all over the place.

Edited September 26, 2022 by benhillboy

[Spud2nique]

12 minutes ago, benhillboy said:

His FT+ to bump up a little to a league average 100 (98 last season)

FTr+ can’t get much higher at 196.

FGs added should be over 100.

Blocks should stay about the same, steals up slightly to .7.

The percentage of his attempts from 10-16 feet should increase from 2% to 10% and he should shoot around 45% from there.  Should hit a few big jumpers late slightly outside that range just off confidence.

His career dunk percentage should rise from .251 to about .260 with a healthy off-season.

If Clint is healthy I can’t see a replacement this season but OO’s gotta get 25 minutes per, up 4 from last season.

His offensive rating probably can’t get higher than 138 with an increased role as a non-passer, probably drop to around 133.  But his defensive rating could improve even more (111 to about 108) with more corporate knowledge of players and a quickly-budding defensive relationship with DeJounte just as he did with Delon (who was in 5 of the 7 best lineups for the Hawks last season but I digress

Basketball Reference Per 36 projects his Win Share Per 48 at .173.  They wilding.  He was over .200 for a majority of last season, no reason that changes.  The screening, movement, intensity, individual defense, and offensive glass eating he brings aren’t dependent on any other player, lineups, or chemistry.  He brings on defense what Montrez Harrell does on offense but with a much better head on his shoulders to bring his offense along to compliment while Harrell has always been a positional sieve with super-late awareness.
 

Top 5 finishes for Most Improved and 6th Man are definitely on his radar when the league sees how fluid his midrange is gonna look while yamming all over the place.

Uh huh. You still doin the stat thing? Didn’t my eyes beat your stats? Ahhhh Benny my boy, you never learn mayne.

[benhillboy]

1 hour ago, Spud2nique said:

I meant I’m the biggest OO fan. It was a joke, nevermind.

I’ll let you have that lol.  You were on him from college among others.  Just remember who follows his advanced stats after every game, tabulated the Hawks’ record when he plays (I forgot but it’s great) and compared his defense and feel to KG when he becomes an AS.

[benhillboy]

8 minutes ago, Spud2nique said:

Uh huh. You still doin the stat thing? Didn’t my eyes beat your stats? Ahhhh Benny my boy, you never learn mayne.

Yup.  You know I mix stats with gameplay analysis as well as anyone.  I got posts from 10 years ago that could’ve been yesterday.

Absolutely not.

Probably not lol.

Edited September 26, 2022 by benhillboy

[benhillboy]

I’m also gonna be looking for how confident OO is facing up.  If he’s gonna be hitting a few mid jimmies he’s gonna get pushed up on on the perimeter by these quick footed Bigs who actually like to.  First step gotta be quick enough to beat the Mitchell Robinsons and Evan Mobleys.  We know finishing isn’t an issue like for some people we know ahem!clint!ahem!.  I know if help comes he’s gonna make the proper dump off.  
 

If he could make a couple plays a game putting the ball on the deck three times, like a turnaround hook after a bump or a nice find in the corner I’ll be wildly impressed.  Playmaking in the front court been a soft spot since Al left.

Y’all remember when Al scored on Kevin Love like 8 straight times lol.

Edited September 26, 2022 by benhillboy

[Final_quest]

10 hours ago, benhillboy said:

His FT+ to bump up a little to a league average 100 (98 last season)

FTr+ can’t get much higher at 196.

FGs added should be over 100.

Blocks should stay about the same, steals up slightly to .7.

The percentage of his attempts from 10-16 feet should increase from 2% to 10% and he should shoot around 45% from there.  Should hit a few big jumpers late slightly outside that range just off confidence.

His career dunk percentage should rise from .251 to about .260 with a healthy off-season.

If Clint is healthy I can’t see a replacement this season but OO’s gotta get 25 minutes per, up 4 from last season.

This sounds achievable, and dare I say miniscule.  The biggest leap is going from 2% to 10% on attempts from 10-16 feet.  

One trend I've noticed in projecting younger players is the thought that they will improve statistically in small increments for a few years, and then have somewhat of a breakout season when the team starts to lean on them more.  Dejounte would be an example of that.  Trae, even with averaging 29 ppg in his sophomore season has shown incremental increases with his WS/48 going up each year. 

Our other picks haven't show incremental improvements each year like Trae and DM: Huerter, Collins, Hunter, Cam.  At least not using VORP, WS/48, etc.  Makes me wonder what the average across lottery picks or first round picks would be.  My hunch is that there are enough picks that flame out to bring the group average down.  I do expect Okongwu and Hunter to increase their WS/48 and VORP this year.  I don't see either breaking out like DM did last year.  More incremental like you project.     

[Spud2nique]

10 hours ago, benhillboy said:

I’m also gonna be looking for

…how the Miami Heat do cuz I love them more than our Hawks- Benhillboy

 

[Diesel]

I'm not going to talk statistically when talking about what I hope/expect to see from OO but here goes. 

Expect:  With 25-30 mpg

increase the number of shots that he has taken per game.   Last season, he took about 5 spg.  I expect this to double with more time.   I truly expect him to be the first option roll man on the 2nd team. 

FG%.  I expect it to drop.   He may have been about 64%.. with more attempts, it should drop to maybe something closer to 60-61%.

I don't know if he has developed an in-game midgame.   That's yet to be seen.

I expect his defense to mature.  Stop jumping off of every pump fake.  Wait for the block.

I expect his positional defense to get better.   With more time on the floor, you have more time to learn the nuance of playing positional defense.  This is a big point because there are a lot of you that expect OO to push CC.   Well, CC is very good at positional defense.   He's also good at directing other defenders.   Part of the problem has been is that we haven't had other astute defenders.  I already miss Wright but I'm glad we have DM and Holiday. 

I expect his aggression to increase.   Lou Williams would coach OO last year.  Mostly what Lou was telling him was how to be aggressive, how to get his spot and how to ask for the ball.   He should have those lessons that Lou was teaching. 

I expect that he will learn how to pass out of a double team.  He didn't have enough touches for it to matter but part of playing more and getting more touches means that defenses will try to crowd him.  When that happens, he has to know the offense well enough to know who is standing where waiting on the ball.   He's smart so he will learn this soon. 

I guess my expectations and my hopes ran together. 

 

[JayBirdHawk]

 

 

[Spud2nique]

Lookin good.. JC pullup

https://www.instagram.com/reel/Ci-XliejfBZ/?igshid=YmMyMTA2M2Y=

[Spud2nique]

OO ready for year 3!

https://www.instagram.com/reel/Ci-XliejfBZ/?igshid=YmMyMTA2M2Y=

[JayBirdHawk]

 

 

[JayBirdHawk]

 

AJ with the strong move and finish with the left hand...from about the 26 second mark.

 

[Peoriabird]

5 hours ago, Diesel said:

I'm not going to talk statistically when talking about what I hope/expect to see from OO but here goes. 

Expect:  With 25-30 mpg

 

If OO plays 25-30 minutes per game, he will have to play many of those minutes at the 4.  You think Nate does it?

[JayBirdHawk]

17 minutes ago, Peoriabird said:

If OO plays 25-30 minutes per game, he will have to play many of those minutes at the 4.  You think Nate does it?

30 is too high.

OO averaged 20.7 mpg last season. Clint averaged 27.6 mpg. 

Nate played Gallo at C so those C minutes should go to OO so let's add at least 4 more minutes. I do think he'll see a few minutes at PF in a lineup with Kaminsky or it remains to be seen if he's added that midrange jumper.

[Peoriabird]

15 minutes ago, JayBirdHawk said:

30 is too high.

OO averaged 20.7 mpg last season. Clint averaged 27.6 mpg. 

Nate played Gallo at C so those C minutes should go to OO so let's add at least 4 more minutes. I do think he'll see a few minutes at PF in a lineup with Kaminsky or it remains to be seen if he's added that midrange jumper.

Kaminsky just seems like a guy who can make you offense and defense work with his BBIQ.  It would be a mistake to give him the Deing treatment

[HawkingAwesome]