Quin needs to shake up the lineup

[TheNorthCydeRises]

We're in a cycle that no matter who we play. this team is Jeckyl and Hyde from game to game.  We can't get any cohesiveness out of any group for more than 2 consecutive games.

In one of the most incredible "mid" stretches I've ever seen, we haven't been more than 3 games over or 3 games under .500 since Thanksgiving.  We haven't had a losing streak of more than 4 games, nor a winning streak more than 5 games.  And we've only had 2 win streaks over 3 games all year.

So if I'm Quin, I'm bringing in Capela and Collins, and sitting them down to explain this to them.  They're the more mature players on the team.  I'm going to ask them for a 3 game stretch if they would come off the bench.  Not because it's particularly their fault that we can't break this cycle, but to see if a different combination in the lineup can lead to wins.

My Starters

• Trae
• Murray
• Hunter
• Johnson
• Okongwu

Bench

• Bogi
• Bey
• Collins
• Capela

And I want Quin to reward guys in the 2nd half by playing the most effective guys more minutes.  This means that if any person on the bench has it going, he gets the opportunity to be in the closing lineup.

I also like the vets coming off the bench, because they may be more effective.  Collins specifically may be a lot more engaged coming off the bench, than playing as a starter.  I also think that Bogi deserves an opportunity to be on the floor with our closing lineup.  His defense will be atrocious, but it does give us an additional offensive option in the game to close. 

And while I despise the idea of playing Hunter at the 4 with his non rebounding self ( 2 rebounds last night by the way ), I think we need to start thinking about putting the best offensive group on the floor at the end of games.  No more Collins AND Capela to close a game.  You can have one, but not both.  We need additional offensive threats.

As for inserting the kids in the starting lineup, I think it may give them the type of energy we need to really match up with these teams better.  JJ especially may be unlocked playing alongside Trae, because Trae can get him the ball in transition and in lobs to the rim off back cuts.  Okongwu has already proven that he can be effective alongside Trae, so why not increase the minutes they play with each other?

The bottom line that it's time for a shakeup.  Just do it for 3 games and see what happens.  Brooklyn looks like they're not going to fall off, and hold their position.  And the Knicks are playing well enough to hold onto the 6 spot.  Unless we break this trend and go on a big time win streak, we're going to continue to hover around .500.  So we may as well try something . . . anything.

[Gray Mule]

Like most NBA teams, and it's a holdover from Nate, Atlanta has a nine player rotation.  Thinking about change from now to season's end, I would like to see one non playing player from the bench, to be promoted to the nine man rotation each game.  A different player each game.  This 9th player gets some playing time.

With a 15 player roster, six players never see the floor.  If they are no good, season's end, they are gone.  If they play well, we just might find a keeper.  Really, it's not like anyone, watching our last two games, can harbor any thoughts about a great post season run.  

This would cut our regular rotation players to eight with a new man added each game.  Everyone gets to play in two games between now and season's end.

This would not change North's idea at all.  Any injured player out makes this easy to do!

Edited March 14, 2023 by Gray Mule

[Peoriabird]

Sorry...Collins ain't the problem my friend...its Murray more than anyone. 2nd is Capela. Oo ain't great because he is a mediocre rebounder and too small for big centers.

[Diesel]

The easy answer is to blame Collins.  The problem is that we don't put Collins in the best position to be his best.   IN the beginnings of games recently, this dude comes out killing it.   However, in the end of games, we have his feet planted to the three point line.   Here's the pros and cons on Collins:

Pros:

• Very good Low post scorer.
• Good Midrange scorer.
• PNR specialist.
• Very good finisher. 
• Good not great defender

Cons:

• Loss his three point shot.
• Don't let him put the ball on the floor. 
• Can be overpowered.

If we keep Collins, Quin is going to have to put the ball in his hands in his spots and stop trying to make him into a Gallo like PF.  JC never learned to be a ball handler and it shows.   He should never put the ball on the floor unless it's back to the basket, two dribbles and his move. 

My prediction on Clint was always as he gets older, OO would play more minutes.  The issue with Clint is that he's not the player that you can funnel the offense in to... He's not that kind of defender.  

[Peoriabird]

I'm actually ready to start Hunter at the 2. Atleast he can stay infront somebody. Start Bey at the 3

[AHF]

52 minutes ago, Peoriabird said:

Sorry...Collins ain't the problem my friend...

Collins has been pretty terrible this season.  I'm a big JC fan and I want to see him succeed but his ability to space the floor is gone and looks like it might never return and his rebounding is a career low.  Look at this garbage trend for rebounding:

This is the worst season of his career by the numbers and these metrics tie out to what I see on the floor:

I'm really worried about his future at this point.  If we were getting 2020-21 JC, that would be great.  Clint and OO were already on the team but he was still effective all-around.  Combining that with his career trend improving on defense would great.  But so much has fallen off for him and he just hasn't been even close to the same player since the finger injury.

[NBASupes]

6 minutes ago, AHF said:

Collins has been pretty terrible this season.  I'm a big JC fan and I want to see him succeed but his ability to space the floor is gone and looks like it might never return and his rebounding is a career low.  Look at this garbage trend for rebounding:

This is the worst season of his career by the numbers and these metrics tie out to what I see on the floor:

I'm really worried about his future at this point.  If we were getting 2020-21 JC, that would be great.  Clint and OO were already on the team but he was still effective all-around.  Combining that with his career trend improving on defense would great.  But so much has fallen off for him and he just hasn't been even close to the same player since the finger injury.

Kevin Huerter factor is so underrated in this analysis. Kevin was our single elite floor spacer. He's gone. That's a beast. Look at the difference between this year's Kings and last year's Kings. Massive. Yes, Bey is an elite floor spacer but he's at his best as a 4 defensively which is what JC plays. Kinda screws us up. 

Edited March 14, 2023 by NBASupes

[Peoriabird]

@AHFat this point, I don't care about offense. Collins remain a plus defender and as long as we continue to give up 82 point in the paint, ain't No offense in the world will be good enough to counter that.

 

[AtLaS]

Agreed on starting JJ.  JC has clearly lost a step this season, I don't care about fit, that's just too large of a dropoff to say it's all attributed to a bad fit.  The reality is JC has a long term contract and had 4 years left on his deal, so he probably didn't work that hard this offseason.  I have no doubt he will have a resurgence if we trade him but for now he just isn't where he needs to be.  Starting JJ over him may be the kick in the pants he needs, then he gets to play with the bench.  Wouldn't be surprised if this sparks him.

I'm also open to starting OO.  He is clearly the future, his midrange is much better than i thought it would be.  If we are playing a large C like Zubac or something we can still start CC, but I'm fine with giving small ball a try.  A JJ/OO frontcourt really isn't THAT small, those guys are tough and play D, and would create many matchup problems for the opposing team.

[bird_dirt]

10 minutes ago, NBASupes said:

Kevin Huerter factor is so underrated in this analysis. Kevin was our single floor spacer. He's gone. That's a beast. Look at the difference between this year's Kings and last year's Kings. Massive. 

He wasn’t our only spacer. We had Bogi, Lou, and TLC. 
This year we have Bogi, AJ, and Bey. 
It would be nice to have him on this year’s team, but the rear view mirror love this man gets is a bit over the top. Remember how god awful his splits were when he came off the bench vs starting? Do you think he would be starting over DJM or Hunter?

FWIW, I think part of Kevin’s success this year is because of where he’s at. I don’t think he would play that well if he were still here.

[macdaddy]

I posted in the other thread but looking at the best lineups the only change I'd see making is starting OO over Capela.   

[NBASupes]

Just now, bird_dirt said:

He wasn’t our only spacer. We had Bogi, Lou, and TLC. 
This year we have Bogi, AJ, and Bey. 
It would be nice to have him on this year’s team, but the rear view mirror love this man gets is a bit over the top. Remember how god awful his splits were when he came off the bench vs starting? Do you think he would be starting over DJM or Hunter?

FWIW, I think part of Kevin’s success this year is because of where he’s at. I don’t think he would play that well if he were still here.

Bogi is not really a floor spacer. He's a PDS aggressive scorer who can shoot. He doesn't even move much other than cutting. He likes contested shots. 

Lou definitely isn't a space spacer and never has been. 

TLC is the opposite of floor spacer. 

We only have one, just Bey. Bey is elite at it like Kevin.

He was never gonna be in an ideal fit with Trae in our heliocentric offense. Bigs benefit from Kevin more than guards and wings. Same with Trae for bigs. 

He's one of the top most assisted to players with Sabonis. He's been critical even when he's bricking shots.

[Spud2nique]

5 minutes ago, macdaddy said:

I posted in the other thread but looking at the best lineups the only change I'd see making is starting OO over Capela.   

Really? @JayBirdHawk my bet with you was premature; I was ahead of my time. Now, to get rid of this avatar. I’m thinkin Saddiq my boi!!!! He’s been rippin it up! 

[Gray Mule]

Floor spacer.  Don't forget AJ Griffin.  He was a good one until he hit his rookie wall and everything went "Floey!"    He'll return next season and be good to go again!

[NBASupes]

19 minutes ago, Gray Mule said:

Floor spacer.  Don't forget AJ Griffin.  He was a good one until he hit his rookie wall and everything went "Floey!"    He'll return next season and be good to go again!

He's a very capable 3 level scorer who can draw fouls and has a lot of self creation skills and can guard 2s 1v1 well but he stands around as much as Dre. He needs to prove that he's a 6th man first.

Edited March 14, 2023 by NBASupes

[TheNorthCydeRises]

3 hours ago, Gray Mule said:

Like most NBA teams, and it's a holdover from Nate, Atlanta has a nine player rotation.  Thinking about change from now to season's end, I would like to see one non playing player from the bench, to be promoted to the nine man rotation each game.  A different player each game.  This 9th player gets some playing time.

With a 15 player roster, six players never see the floor.  If they are no good, season's end, they are gone.  If they play well, we just might find a keeper.  Really, it's not like anyone, watching our last two games, can harbor any thoughts about a great post season run.  

This would cut our regular rotation players to eight with a new man added each game.  Everyone gets to play in two games between now and season's end.

This would not change North's idea at all.  Any injured player out makes this easy to do!

So whose time are you cutting? And who are you rotating into that spot?

I'm definitely not against it, because we have to do something.

[TheNorthCydeRises]

2 hours ago, Peoriabird said:

Sorry...Collins ain't the problem my friend...its Murray more than anyone. 2nd is Capela. Oo ain't great because he is a mediocre rebounder and too small for big centers.

Collins shooting is a HUGE problem, as well as where he's taking his shots. And he's not physical enough to guard the bigger players.

Collins would be the ideal small ball 5 to play, if he were strong enough defensively to play it.

But he's not.

[TheNorthCydeRises]

1 hour ago, Peoriabird said:

I'm actually ready to start Hunter at the 2. Atleast he can stay infront somebody. Start Bey at the 3

 

I said Hunter was a 2 . . 3 years ago.

A certain person who is the "smartest person in the room" disagreed.

 

He plays soft, so he may as well be a 2.  But we're locked into the Trae - Dejounte backcourt, so no chance he starts at the 2.  Should he get spot minutes at the 2 in a big lineup?  Yes. 

But now you're taking minutes away from Bogi . . unless you play Bogi at the point.

So it's easier said than done.

[sturt]

Curious to compare (a) starters' performance as indicated by simple +/- in game logs with (b) wins... plausibly indicating which starters' success have been most necessary to our winning a given game.

What I found:

- Of DJ's 28 games with a +1 or more, we have won 25 (89.3%)

- Of Dre's 23 games with a +1 or more, we have won 19 (82.6%)

- Of CC's 32 games with a +1 or more, we have won 26 (81.3%)

- Of Trae's 34 games with a +1 or more, we have won 27 (79.4%)

- Of JC's 28 games with a +1 or more, we have won 20 (71.4%)

 

Conclusions:

Player whose okay-to-excellent performance has been most typical to winning?

DJ

 

 

Player who, if he had more okay-to-excellent performance games, is most likely to have made a difference in W/L%?

Dre

 

Player whose okay-to-excellent production has been most common?

Trae, with CC a very close runner-up

 

 

[NBASupes]

8 minutes ago, TheNorthCydeRises said:

 

I said Hunter was a 2 . . 3 years ago.

A certain person who is the "smartest person in the room" disagreed.

 

He plays soft, so he may as well be a 2.  But we're locked into the Trae - Dejounte backcourt, so no chance he starts at the 2.  Should he get spot minutes at the 2 in a big lineup?  Yes. 

But now you're taking minutes away from Bogi . . unless you play Bogi at the point.

So it's easier said than done.

I did disagree and for reasons I continue to state. Having Hunter guard 1s and 2s full time is a ticket to Dre being on the IR for half the season. Unless JJ is playing the 4, you can't justify Bey at the 3. You gotta have a player far more capable of guarding the perimeter. 

If we could ever land Embiid. I'll trade half of these guys and we would be much better for it. 

Edited March 14, 2023 by NBASupes