2024 Sacramento Kings Draft Pick Watch

[Spud2nique]

7 hours ago, AHF said:

it might never convey in the worst case.

We are the Hawks. Cash the check this year, weak draft or not, just get the 1st rounder now! We don’t have draft luck or at least haven’t had much in our history.

[NBASupes]

14 hours ago, AHF said:

This is a classic one in the hand, two in the bush scenario.  If the pick conveys this year we are guaranteed a first round pick from the Kings.  If it doesn’t, we could get a first round pick in a stronger draft as the best case or it might never convey in the worst case.  Much more uncertainty.  

I lean towards rooting for it to convey this year for two reasons:

1) We should be aspiring to make one or more major trades this offseason and for some teams a certain first round pick will be more highly valued (if the Kings miss the playoffs this year and the pick goes away if the Kings don’t make it next year how much confidence can any team have?); and 

2) we have plenty of “open” roster spots for promising rookies to take and while the top of this draft is weak the depth seems interesting and this pick will always be a “depth” pick (ie it will never matter how good the lottery picks are for assessing what we can get from it unless we are trading into the lottery with it).

I want it just because the players i covet are older this year. Edey, Shannon Jr., Knecht could all be available, maybe not but could be as older prospects tend to drop from where they should be picked as teams love going upside which leads to age bias.

Otherwise, I would rather it converts next year. 

Edited March 17 by NBASupes

[AHF]

7 minutes ago, NBASupes said:

Otherwise, I would rather it converts next year. 

Me too.  The downside is that it might not convert next year.  But I do think there are some guys who seem like interesting pieces that could be there when that pick is on the board this season.  I feel like there will be multiple players picked later in the first round who end up better than one or more lottery picks.  This just feels like a "flatter" year for talent.

[NBASupes]

35 minutes ago, AHF said:

Me too.  The downside is that it might not convert next year.  But I do think there are some guys who seem like interesting pieces that could be there when that pick is on the board this season.  I feel like there will be multiple players picked later in the first round who end up better than one or more lottery picks.  This just feels like a "flatter" year for talent.

It's really flat because this is an underwhelming underclassmen group. Last was much better but last year was a terrible upperclassmen group. Jaquez being the best of the bunch and he had a tier 5 grade till he got picked by the Heat where I moved him up to tier 4 for going to the perfect situation. 

[JayBirdHawk]

I'm leaning to wanting the pick this year. We have too many needs to fill this offseason. Wether we use the pick to pick a player or use it in trade, now is the time.

...and again I don't trust the Kings.

[AtLaS]

We definitely want it this year.  Sac is in the West and could easily miss the playoffs next year.  If Sabonis or Fox went down early in the season we'd be screwed. 

If it conveys this year and we don't want it, we can trade it for a low 2025 first.  I am sure there will be some team who likes a player in this draft that would be willing to trade a 2025 first.  

 

[NBASupes]

5 minutes ago, AtLaS said:

We definitely want it this year.  Sac is in the West and could easily miss the playoffs next year.  If Sabonis or Fox went down early in the season we'd be screwed. 

If it conveys this year and we don't want it, we can trade it for a low 2025 first.  I am sure there will be some team who likes a player in this draft that would be willing to trade a 2025 first.  

 

I rather have it than not. Even in the early 20s

[AHF]

31 minutes ago, AtLaS said:

If it conveys this year and we don't want it, we can trade it for a low 2025 first.  I am sure there will be some team who likes a player in this draft that would be willing to trade a 2025 first.  

 

I don’t think anyone is trading a 2025 for a 2024 20-something pick.

[Sothron]

We want the pick this year rather than hope Sac can make the playoffs next year.

This draft does not have the high value guys that are no brainers at the top three. True. It also has decent to good value at least through the first 20 picks. We should want to get a wing and a center with our picks.

[Mikey]

11 hours ago, Sothron said:

We want the pick this year rather than hope Sac can make the playoffs next year.

This draft does not have the high value guys that are no brainers at the top three. True. It also has decent to good value at least through the first 20 picks. We should want to get a wing and a center with our picks.

I disagree. The pick is more valuable next year when we don't have a pick + there is slightly less protections on it next year (1-13). That basically is saying will the kings be a play in team and as constructed there is no reason to believe they won't be. Pick 13-17 in a much stronger class where we own no pick>>>

[AHF]

1 hour ago, Mikey said:

I disagree. The pick is more valuable next year when we don't have a pick + there is slightly less protections on it next year (1-13). That basically is saying will the kings be a play in team and as constructed there is no reason to believe they won't be. Pick 13-17 in a much stronger class where we own no pick>>>

I have a lot less certainty around the Kings being a playoff team in the West than you do.  I think the scenario you lay out is very realistic.  But it is also not hard to imagine the Kings missing the playoffs with just a single injury to their team.  I also think if it comes down to them being a play-in team and losing their pick or leaning into the losses and keeping their pick that they would lean into the losses ala Dallas last season.  (I don't think they would do that if they are on track to be a legit playoff team.)

[AtLaS]

On 3/17/2024 at 12:32 PM, AHF said:

I don’t think anyone is trading a 2025 for a 2024 20-something pick.

I disagree.  There is always a player who slips, or just a random player that a team falls in love with and wants to get them.  The NCAA tournament hasn't even started yet, there will be some guys who are currently considered 2nd rounders who will move up into the first.  

You may be right, but I think there is a better shot than you seem to think. 

A late first in any draft is a crapshoot to a certain extent.

Edited March 18 by AtLaS

[AHF]

1 hour ago, AtLaS said:

I disagree.  There is always a player who slips, or just a random player that a team falls in love with and wants to get them.  The NCAA tournament hasn't even started yet, there will be some guys who are currently considered 2nd rounders who will move up into the first.  

You may be right, but I think there is a better shot than you seem to think. 

A late first in any draft is a crapshoot to a certain extent.

But no pick is guaranteed to be a late first unless you are talking about a heavily protected pick that may not even convey next year.  I don't think any team would consider dealing without significant protections on the pick which could mean it conveys years down the road instead of in 2025.

[Mikey]

3 hours ago, AHF said:

I have a lot less certainty around the Kings being a playoff team in the West than you do.  I think the scenario you lay out is very realistic.  But it is also not hard to imagine the Kings missing the playoffs with just a single injury to their team.  I also think if it comes down to them being a play-in team and losing their pick or leaning into the losses and keeping their pick that they would lean into the losses ala Dallas last season.  (I don't think they would do that if they are on track to be a legit playoff team.)

Yeah I can't see that happening. I personally think only way we get it this season is if they avoid the play in. Otherwise I dont think we will retain that pick this year. I also expect them to make a run for lavine in the summer and get better on paper. 

All things equal, if you told me the pick was in same spot this year or next and we were guaranteed to get it next I would defer it for 2025

[bird_dirt]

5 minutes ago, Mikey said:

Yeah I can't see that happening. I personally think only way we get it this season is if they avoid the play in. Otherwise I dont think we will retain that pick this year. I also expect them to make a run for lavine in the summer and get better on paper. 

All things equal, if you told me the pick was in same spot this year or next and we were guaranteed to get it next I would defer it for 2025

One (albeit minor) benefit of having a mid-late 1RP this year instead of next is we’d be one year ahead in the development schedule of whatever player we get. 
2025 player has the potential to be better than this year, but no guarantee and we’ll have to wait even longer to find out. 

[Gray Mule]

An old adage:  A bird in hand is worth two in the brush.

If we get the pick this year, we know what we have.  If next year, who knows?  Get while getting is good!

[Gray Mule]

For all you Squawk posters worried about what the Kings are doing this season, they have a 7-3 record in their last ten.  Seems that we have been worrying for nothing.  Our Sacramento pick is safe!

[bleachkit]

Sac has a favorable schedule. Odds are probably in our favor. 

[JayBirdHawk]

On 3/21/2024 at 8:31 AM, Gray Mule said:

For all you Squawk posters worried about what the Kings are doing this season, they have a 7-3 record in their last ten.  Seems that we have been worrying for nothing.  Our Sacramento pick is safe!

 

On 3/21/2024 at 8:43 AM, bleachkit said:

Sac has a favorable schedule. Odds are probably in our favor. 

And just like that the Kings are in the #8 spot. Teams 5-8 are separated by only 2 games, so there will be lots of movement up and down with these 4 teams over the next 2 weeks.  NOP lost Ingram to knee injury last night but not sure how he'll be out. Kings lost Huerter. 

My concern with Sac is if they aren't top 6, they have very tough matchups in the playin games.

 

[NBASupes]

SAC without Kevin is an issue as spacing is critical for them and he's critical for spacing.