How far can this team go?

[ATLscrubLove]

I must say I had my doubts going into the season, didn't know what to expect with Joe gone. I knew we would still contend but would probably be considerably worse than previous years. But I gotta say I am EXTREMELY impressed by what I've seen through the first quarter of the season. All of our wins aren't pretty, we get out-rebounded a lot. We take large leads on teams and let them come back... But we are getting wins.

Just how far can this team go? I realize there's a ton of games left in the season but if our Hawks can play the way they've been of late consistently. Could we actually win a division title? ( first time since 1994 ). Possibly get passed the 2nd round? Do we have a championship caliber team without a superstar? Only time will tell...

All I know is we could use some new banners.

http://farm1.staticflickr.com/164/426244489_4ced1483aa_z.jpg

[macdaddy]

no kidding on the banners. I don't know really. We have to see if they can continue to play 'the right way' meaning Teague has to continue to take over the team and Al and Josh have to continue to work really hard in the paint every night. You know what to expect from the rest of them. I'd be surprised to see these guys get to the ECF only because I don't believe playoff officiating will be kind to them.

My real question is will the owners let Ferry do what he wants if we are still in the top 3 or 4 in the east come the trade deadline. I think Ferry is smart enough to know that we have to take advantage of some opportunities. We haven't faced much adversity yet so we'll see.

[PureGreatness]

I think we are a 2nd round exit BUT I wouldn't count out making the ECF.

[PSSSHHHRRR87]

I am going with a 6 game exit in the 2nd round, although I think it would be sweet if we got to the ECF the first year w/o Joe, even if we get swept.

Edited December 10, 2012 by PSSSHHHRRR87

[PureGreatness]

Where the hell is Diesel?

[Nicholasp27]

We are 11-5-1 in rebounding warsWhy do people keep saying we get out rebounded a lot?

[pimp]

"Why do people keep saying we get out rebounded a lot?"I haven't checked , but I guess we were out rebounded in our 5 loses...

[Atlantaholic]

We are 11-5-1 in rebounding warsWhy do people keep saying we get out rebounded a lot?

Since we are in the mid 20's as far as RPG in the league, I'm guessing in those 5 games we were out-rebounded very handily. In the games we rebound the ball well though, I'm sure we are as good as anyone outside of OKC and SA right now. We pass the ball well, score at a good clip and defend very, very well so as long as we continue to improve our rebounding we should continue to stay close to the top in the EC

[thecampster]

Remember that we have tons of expirings and a few picks. My guess is we will be making a trade soon to add one more talent. Tonight will tell us a great deal about ourselves as a team. A win makes us the 2nd seed in the East, a loss is a sign we are lacking.

[Plainview1981]

As always, the team gets ran over by the superstars. Tiresome.

[macdaddy]

As always, the team gets ran over by the superstars. Tiresome.

Alright! The Squawk is back in business.

[Wretch]

I said in the off season that we weren't going to be as bad as some people thought. I mean this team still has Al, Smoove, and Teague - that alone is talent to get us to 500 and a playoff birth. I've had to revise my initial expectations though. I was doubtful that we'd end up in the lottery and if we did, I figured it would be a very late lottery pick. I think we all can see at this point that this squad isn't going to be that bad. What I still wonder is where our seeding is. Initially, I thought we'd be a 6-8 seed. Now, it's looking more like a 4-6 seed.

How far can they go...

I think it gets lost on people just how good NBA players are. I mean really...all of these guys are VERY good. We've got enough firepower to trade baskets with the best. Al/Smoove/Teague can do that. But then you've also got guys like Lou, Stevenson, Harris, and Ashton Kutcher that can supplement that offense. We saw a lot of that in the 1st half of last night's game. That's how we kept it respectable.

But there's a point in the game where stats are going to fail you. This is where basketball games are really played and actually won. See, we got guys that can score. Every team in the NBA does by default. So, we'll score a bunch of points throughout the game. Guys may finish with double-doubles and 20+ point games...lots of assists and blocks... But it's about WHEN these stats are accumulated and specifically WHEN the baskets are scored. There's a point in every game (usually LOTS of them) when certain players just take over. You get punched in the face and all you can really do is punch back...or take more punches and go down.

...and there are teams in this league that can throw some hard punches.

So now, put us in a situation where we're down 0-1 in a series on their floor. We just went down by 4 points. Late in the 3rd. We got the ball...we need this basket.

This is where you guys want to give the ball to Al or Josh. But neither of these guys is particularly adept at creating their own shot. They move GREAT without the ball...phenomenal actually, but without somebody feeding them...not so much.

Al is a good shooter, but he has a limited face up game and a post up game. All too often, both end up with him stopping just inside the paint, in a double, and passing out. Smoove has nothing outside of the paint (and will show you every night) and has no handles. So, you force either of our front court guys to put it on the floor, and you've got them where you want them.

So what's going to happen is Josh Smith is going to take a bad shot here or Al is going to stop just inside the paint and swing the ball around the perimeter. We hope for a jumper (or Josh just decides to give us one) and all of a sudden, long rebound and dunk on the other end...or 3 pointer and we're down 2 or 3 possessions.

Basketball is a game of runs and when you don't have guys that can provide reliable scoring (aka - super stars), you're going to find yourself on the wrong end of critical possessions more often than not. Say what you want, but the games are won and lost on those critical possessions through the entire game and they are won by certain players that make those plays happen. We just don't have the firepower to keep up with that. We haven't had it for a LONG time.

I'll cheer this team to the bitter end (and have been for almost 3 decades), but at some point, somebody in our organization has to realize we need a better engine to go further. Shame really. Because this team is one special player away from being serious.

[TheNorthCydeRises]

I said in the off season that we weren't going to be as bad as some people thought. I mean this team still has Al, Smoove, and Teague - that alone is talent to get us to 500 and a playoff birth. I've had to revise my initial expectations though. I was doubtful that we'd end up in the lottery and if we did, I figured it would be a very late lottery pick. I think we all can see at this point that this squad isn't going to be that bad. What I still wonder is where our seeding is. Initially, I thought we'd be a 6-8 seed. Now, it's looking more like a 4-6 seed.

How far can they go...

I think it gets lost on people just how good NBA players are. I mean really...all of these guys are VERY good. We've got enough firepower to trade baskets with the best. Al/Smoove/Teague can do that. But then you've also got guys like Lou, Stevenson, Harris, and Ashton Kutcher that can supplement that offense. We saw a lot of that in the 1st half of last night's game. That's how we kept it respectable.

But there's a point in the game where stats are going to fail you. This is where basketball games are really played and actually won. See, we got guys that can score. Every team in the NBA does by default. So, we'll score a bunch of points throughout the game. Guys may finish with double-doubles and 20+ point games...lots of assists and blocks... But it's about WHEN these stats are accumulated and specifically WHEN the baskets are scored. There's a point in every game (usually LOTS of them) when certain players just take over. You get punched in the face and all you can really do is punch back...or take more punches and go down.

...and there are teams in this league that can throw some hard punches.

So now, put us in a situation where we're down 0-1 in a series on their floor. We just went down by 4 points. Late in the 3rd. We got the ball...we need this basket.

This is where you guys want to give the ball to Al or Josh. But neither of these guys is particularly adept at creating their own shot. They move GREAT without the ball...phenomenal actually, but without somebody feeding them...not so much.

Al is a good shooter, but he has a limited face up game and a post up game. All too often, both end up with him stopping just inside the paint, in a double, and passing out. Smoove has nothing outside of the paint (and will show you every night) and has no handles. So, you force either of our front court guys to put it on the floor, and you've got them where you want them.

So what's going to happen is Josh Smith is going to take a bad shot here or Al is going to stop just inside the paint and swing the ball around the perimeter. We hope for a jumper (or Josh just decides to give us one) and all of a sudden, long rebound and dunk on the other end...or 3 pointer and we're down 2 or 3 possessions.

Basketball is a game of runs and when you don't have guys that can provide reliable scoring (aka - super stars), you're going to find yourself on the wrong end of critical possessions more often than not. Say what you want, but the games are won and lost on those critical possessions through the entire game and they are won by certain players that make those plays happen. We just don't have the firepower to keep up with that. We haven't had it for a LONG time.

I'll cheer this team to the bitter end (and have been for almost 3 decades), but at some point, somebody in our organization has to realize we need a better engine to go further. Shame really. Because this team is one special player away from being serious.

Very good post.

I'll add this. If you DON'T have that type of player, you need to be the type of defensive team that can continuously get stops to keep the game from getting out of hand. But even at that point, you need a guy who can make big shots at critical times.

Game 5 of the Bulls series ( 2011 ) in Chicago.

Hawks are going toe to toe with the Bulls going into the 4th, down by 1 ( 69 - 68 ). An absolutely spectacular 3rd quarter by Teague has gotten us right back in the game. If we win, we have a Game 6 on our home floor to close out the series and get to the EC Finals. Teague makes a lay-up to put us up 70 - 69 to start the 4th, and I have hope that we might pull off the impossible.

Then the Bulls promptly go on a 9 - 0 run in a 3 minute span to put them up by 8.

That gives them enough cushion to win the game. In that 3 minute run, Derrick Rose is literally responsible for 8 of the 9 points ( 4 points of his own, and 2 assists to others ). Rose would go on to score 11 points in the quarter and dish out 3 assists, and score 33 points for the game.

Meanwhile, JJ only scored 4 points on ( 2 - 5 FG ) and only has 15 total points for the game. Teague was our leading scorer with 5 points in the quarter and dropped in 21 points. Smith was decent with 16 points, but missed all 3 of his 4th quarter shots. Al got a modest double-double with 12 pts and 10 rebs, but he also was a non factor in that 4th quarter, with only 2 points. Jamal goes scoreless for the final 3 quarters of that game and only scores 2 points total on 1 - 9 FG.

In all, the Hawks get outscored 26 - 15 in the 4th, and we lose by 12.

The difference between good teams and championship teams, is that they have at least one guy who can and WILL get it done with the game on the line. And everybody on his team ( and on the opposing team ) knows it. So the only way you can counter that ( most of the time ) is with a guy of your own who can match him shot for shot ( ala Dominique vs Bird in 1988 ).

Until a team gets that type of player, their only hope is the Detroit Model of 2003, in which stellar defense keeps them in the game at almost all times. But even THAT TEAM had 2 huge clutch shotmakers in the form of Chauncey Billups and Rip Hamilton.

So you look at what happened last night vs Miami. Everything was going back and forth like a good heavyweight fight, until the 2 Heat superstars took over the game. Wade had 10 points in that 3rd quarter. But he scored 8 of that 10 points in the middle of that 17 - 4 run by the Heat that blew the game open. Lebron was the playmaker, having 3 assists, including the big one to Battier for that 3.

The NBA is definitely a game of runs. And if you don't have the offensive firepower to get you back into a game, you have to stay solid with your defense and don't turn the ball over.

As far as how far can we go . . it depends on the matchups. We haven't played New York or Boston or Brooklyn or Chicago yet. We've lost to Miami twice, although competitive in both games. Who knows how Philly will look if and when they get Bynum back. We've looked great against the elite of the Western Conference. Hopefully that will translate to the East elite, when we get into the meat of our EC schedule beginning in January.

[hawkman]

Superstar is on the way next offseason after his 'super team's' meltdown is complete. The BIG lineup with said superstar and an average sized SG would've won last night's game.

[MrMeltdown]

Not far enough for me to get excited. Teams needs a better 3rd option than what Teague or Lou can provide.

[AHF]

My expectation hasn't changed much since the preseason. I expect this team to be in the 4-8 seed range (likely 5 or 6 seed) and to be eliminated most likely in the first round but definitely by the second round. I hope they exceed my expectations.

[coachx]

I like this Hawks team more then any of the previous Woodson / Drew lead teams. This roster actually plays team basketball. The players move without the ball and all of the players are willing passers. Its quite refreshing to see after watching JJ and Crawford play iso ball and after watching Bibby play PG without being able to break down a defense or create shots for others.

The fact that Ferry has made this team better while cutting out our 2 worst contracts is out standing. Ferry should be the front runner for GM of the year in my opinion.

Matchups will play an important factor in the playoffs.............not just statistics..............but I do think this team has as good of chance of getting past the 2nd round as any other Hawk team since the Knight and Sund eras.

That being said.......this is not a NBA Championship level team......but my expectations have risen since the season started. I'm no longer just looking beyond this year........I'm looking foward to playoffs. What if we make it to the 2nd round and push the Heat like we did last night ? What if at the same time the Lakers implode under D'Antonie ? Never say never.....but D Howard might just start looking our way.

For the Hawks to be major players in free agency, with all that cap space, we need a good showing in the playoffs.

Edited December 11, 2012 by coachx

[Guest]

I like this Hawks team more then any of the previous Woodson / Drew lead teams. This roster actually plays team basketball. The players move without the ball and all of the players are willing passers. Its quite refreshing to see after watching JJ and Crawford play iso ball and after watching Bibby play PG without being able to break down a defense or create shots for others.

The fact that Ferry has made this team better while cutting out our 2 worst contracts is out standing. Ferry should be the front runner for GM of the year in my opinion.

Matchups will play an important factor in the playoffs.............not just statistics..............but I do think this team has as good of chance of getting past the 2nd round as any other Hawk team since the Knight and Sund eras.

I do as well. Who would have thought that a bunch of guys with expiring contracts would be playing such good team ball, not only on offense but even more so on defense. No selfish me first player trying to put up numbers to get a big payday down the line. Very rare in today's NBA.

[coachx]

Remember that we have tons of expirings and a few picks. My guess is we will be making a trade soon to add one more talent. Tonight will tell us a great deal about ourselves as a team. A win makes us the 2nd seed in the East, a loss is a sign we are lacking.

Good point camp.

I remember we got Houston's 2013 1st rounder (lottery protected) from the Nets in the JJ trade. Did we add any other future picks ?

Houston is currently fighting for the #8 seed in the West. I sure hope they get it. That gives Atlanta a pick around #17 or 18 to go along with our own pick.

I wonder if Houstons pick becomes top 10 protected in 2014.............then top 5 protected in 2015....etc. It would be interesting to know the details on this.

Edited December 11, 2012 by coachx

[HawkItus]

All of this is impossible to say until later in the season. We beat the Miami that played the knicks. Dwade playing like he can play we lose. If Garnett and Pierce go legend status on us, they will beat us in a series. We don't know and can't say until they get more samples to taste.