NBA Offseason Power Rankings - CBS Sports

[RandomFan]

http://www.cbssports.com/nba/powerrankings

 

Way early Power Rankings for next season. It's amusing that they have us ranked #9 overall, 3rd in the Eastern Conference. They have us behind the Cavs, which is understandable. But then they put Miami ahead of us, which is

 

 

This is what they say about us:

Even if they had brought everyone back, the odds weren't great for the Hawks to repeat their success of last year when everything came together. Losing DeMarre Carroll just exacerbates that. Still, they were a great regular-season team and added some great depth at center.

 

Very short-sighted analysis that they think a team going into year 3 of their program isn't going to repeat their success, not to mention see improvement simply because they are still a team growing together and improving both individually and in this system. But that's OK. It took the Spurs years and years before the pundits realized the Spurs knew more about building a program than the pundits do.

 

And now they say things like this about the #3 ranked Spurs:

The Spurs sacrificed continuity and depth for a splashy free agent, but everyone assumes this will work because it's the Spurs. Let me tell you the real reason this is going to work: It's the Spurs. Wait, dang it. Anyway, yeah, they'll be good this season.

 

This is what they say about the #2 ranked Cavs:

A full year together with a better understanding of one another and lessons learned in a tough playoff run. The Cavaliers are stacked and presumably healthy. The first year was a test run. This is the real run, and the Cavaliers look primed for it.

 

We were apparently lucky to be where we were and are supposed to take a step back; but the Cavs will be better after "a full year together with a better understanding of one another and lessons learned in a tough playoff run." I seem to recall that last year was our first year together with all of our starters too. But we're not supposed to improve simply from a full year together with a better understanding of one another and lessons learned in a tough playoff run. But Cleveland is. Right.. Also, they are presumably healthy now, which makes a big difference for Cleveland but apparently not for us...Hrrrmmm, why does this sound like hypocritical and biased journalism? Oh, I know.

 

BECAUSE IT IS!!!

 

 

 

*** This is a notation for the people that don't grasp analogies. No, I'm not saying the Hawks will be better than the Cavs next year, or even comparing our roster to theirs. The only comparison taking place is at a hypocritical journalist pointing out reasons why one club will make improvements from a year of playing together, and totally ignoring and discounting those very same reasons when talking about another club.

Edited July 16, 2015 by RandomFan

[Guest]

Not new...people have hated on us for years and years...led by ESBN

[Guest]

In what universe is Miami #7 overall?

[Sothron]

Miami has a better starting five than we do right now. Not sure how that is up for debate. The edge we have is our bench is better and we have a better coach. They have serious health issues with their two most important players which is not the case for us. I'm floored they have Memphis as high as they do.

[RandomFan]

Miami has a better starting five than we do right now. Not sure how that is up for debate. The edge we have is our bench is better and we have a better coach. They have serious health issues with their two most important players which is not the case for us. I'm floored they have Memphis as high as they do.

 

Because any team that starts Whiteside does not have a better starting five than we do? And Deng is a shell of his former self too. So ya, I can't see how it's up for debate either, but from the other side.

 

On a seperate note, this is a link to a recent Bleacher Report article on the Hawks, Did Atlanta Hawks Do Enough to Save Eastern Conference Contender Status? http://bleacherreport.com/articles/2521619-did-the-atlanta-hawks-do-enough-to-save-eastern-conference-contender-status

Edited July 16, 2015 by RandomFan

[Guest]

Miami has a better starting five than we do right now. Not sure how that is up for debate. The edge we have is our bench is better and we have a better coach. They have serious health issues with their two most important players which is not the case for us. I'm floored they have Memphis as high as they do.

I don't think Miami has a better starting 5 than us. Wade and Deng are always banged up, Whiteside had 1/2 a good season, and Dragic didn't play nearly as well as he did in Phoenix.

[nonono]

miami is the flavor of the month for the talking heads right now, it'll pass

[ATLHawks3]

If they stay healthy, the Heat are going to be in the playoffs. However, they have to have the one of the worst benches in the NBA.

[RedDawg#8]

Why should natuonal opinion favor us when 75% of our message board of die hard fans doesnt even think we will be worth a damn. Just saying

[frosgrim]

Another example of lazy thinking.

It is likely the Hawks don't win 60 regular season games this season, but that doesn't matter per se. They will win their division and be a top 3 seed. What matters for this team now is winning in the playoffs.  A lot of teams that make their first deep run in the playoffs learn that the regular season doesn't matter that much. What matters is getting the seed you want and then being rested and hungry for success in the playoffs.  I honestly think this team will make  a very deep run this year. Maybe not the finals, but a damn good showing in the ECF. I will enjoy as we haven't seen this sort of franchise success ever. 

[NBASupes]

Miami doesn't play anywhere near as good as their talent suggest.

[RandomFan]

It is likely the Hawks don't win 60 regular season games this season, but that doesn't matter per se.

 

I can understand why people would say this, and winning 60 games in a season is a big deal, something difficult to do. I wont be shocked of we don't win 60, but I guess I don't see it as difficult a task for this team as some do. Yes, losing DMC is going to hurt the starting unit a bit, especially on offense; but we might actually be better on defense with Sefolosha - and yes I too am concerned with Thabo's recent injury issues, and also his promotion to starter takes him off the bench, which weakens our depth.

 

However, last year our wings, excluding Thabo and Korver, were Bazemore and Carroll, with John Jenkins riding the bench and not helping much. This year will be Bazemore, Hardaway, and Holiday - and probably one more addition before the season. We've lost some quality in DMC, but we've gained in depth, and also youthful potential.

 

To quote the BR article I posted a ways up in this thread:

 

 

Atlanta's starting lineup probably won't be quite as good as it was last season, despite switching out only one player.

 

Carroll was the unit's No. 5 scoring option, but the fact that a player with his offensive skill set was so far down the totem pole was what made Atlanta's top group so dangerous. If the opponent started a weak defender, the Hawks could exploit him no matter who he was guarding.

 

If Sefolosha comes back 100 percent from his leg surgery, there won't be any defensive slippage at that the 3 position. In fact, you can argue that he is actually a better perimeter stopper than Carroll. The Swiss swingman had a better defensive box plus-minus (2.5 to 0.5), compiled a lower defensive rating (100 to 104) and limited his opponents to a lower field-goal percentage (37.4 to 45.0) than Carroll.

 

However, the offensive chasm between Sefolosha and Carroll is wide.

 

Thabo is not close to the three-point shooter the Junkyard Dog is, which shows in the different ways opposing teams defend them. Sefolosha receives a cushion of several feet when he roams the perimeter, which clogs the lane for Atlanta's penetrators. Carroll's coverage, on the other hand, was much tighter.

(I must point out that Thabo had been around a 40% 3 point shooter for most of his career, until his shot abandoned him for the last few years he was in OKC. He started out poorly here as well, but our staff seemed to have gotten his stroke repaired and he was getting close to that 40% mark again before his calf injury. This injured offseason hurts, but if our coaches can keep his 3-point shooting close to a 40% clip again, then the offensive dispartiy will not be nearly as noticeable. To me this is a big key to our ECF chances.)

 

Lastly, Carroll's departure will also have a trickle-down effect for Atlanta's small forward depth. After Sefolosha, not a single player currently on the roster has both the frame and skill set to play big minutes at the 3. (That isn't entirely true. Korver has the frame, just not the elite defensive skill set. It will depend if he would be assigned to cover a good offensive threat or not. If not, then he'll be fine when covering a 3.) Bazemore and Holiday will see some playing time there, as will Millsap, but all three are more accustomed to playing elsewhere.

 

But what exactly does that mean?

 

A strong starting lineup is more important to a team's success than a strong bench, in general. According to HoopsStats.com, the top five teams in starter scoring last season were the Los Angeles Clippers, Golden State Warriors, Cleveland Cavaliers, Hawks and Washington Wizards. All five squads won at least one playoff round in 2014-15.

 

On the other hand, the five best scoring benches all came from teams (the San Antonio Spurs, Indiana Pacers, Boston Celtics, Milwaukee Bucks and Toronto Raptors) that either lost in the postseason's first round or missed the playoffs altogether.

 

However, the bench made a substantial leap, while the starting five's step back should be more modest. The strong Big Three of Horford, Millsap and Jeff Teague are still on the roster, which keeps this team's floor relatively high.

 

The bolded part is where my focus is. While we will take a small step back in the starting rotation, our bench rotation has taken a huge step forward, even after accounting for losing Thabo from the bench. I was never one to bash Pero, unlike many around here - mainly because he was dirt cheap and did provide value. But Splitter makes our frontcourt infinitely better, and gaining his defense off the bench more than makes up for losing Thabo's there. 

 

And none of that is even considering the continued growth of our young players like Schröder, Muscala, and Bazemore. That's a player at all 3 position groups, (a PG, a wing, and a frontcourt player) that should all 3 improve significantly over where they were last year. And we have some new young wing projects in Hardaway and Holiday, and Tavares who might be ready to get some bench minutes late in the season.

 

And none of that is considering what I complained about in the OP - that we're still only 2 years into this system. Going into year 3 our guys, even our veteran guys, still have a lot of improvement they can make simply from more time together and getting more comfortable in this system. As several players said at different times last year, they are still just scratching the surface of an extremely complex system. We haven't even seen them at their best yet.

 

As @frosgrim talked about, they've now gotten a taste of a deep playoff run, and learned the valuable lessons about what it takes once they are there. 

 

So all this talk about us taking a step back is just ludicrous to me. We might not win 60 games, but my money is on 60+ wins again. And I'm also saying we'll be a better team in 2015 than we were in 2014, even with losing DMC.

Edited July 16, 2015 by RandomFan

[Dejay]

Even if the ©heat is healthy, I still don't think they are better than the Hawks. The national folks WANT them to be, of course. But you don't always get what you want in life...

[Sothron]

Because any team that starts Whiteside does not have a better starting five than we do? And Deng is a shell of his former self too. So ya, I can't see how it's up for debate either, but from the other side.

 

On a seperate note, this is a link to a recent Bleacher Report article on the Hawks, Did Atlanta Hawks Do Enough to Save Eastern Conference Contender Status? http://bleacherreport.com/articles/2521619-did-the-atlanta-hawks-do-enough-to-save-eastern-conference-contender-status

 

If the Heat stay healthy, yes, they have a better starting unit. Wade is a superstar, no one on our roster is even close to that. Bosh is a multiple All Star, Deng isn't what he was five years ago but he is still a solid starter. Dragic is one of the most underrated players in the NBA. Whiteside just needs to block and rebound. That team's starting unit is in fact pretty damn good if healthy. I don't know if they can stay healthy but on paper, yes, they are a better starting unit than we are.

 

I didn't say they had the better team. Just a better starting unit when healthy.

[Guest]

Miami doesn't play anywhere near as good as their talent suggest.

 

Agreed.

 

And @Sothron, I agree the Heat have a better starting 5 on paper.  In reality, it's what NBASupes said.  Plus, despite the 2 rings, I still question Spoelstra(sp?) as a coach.

 

Will he be able to get Dragic and DWhine to play well together?  Questionable.

 

Will Whiteside play a full season at pseudo-Linsanity levels?  Highly unlikely.

 

Will Wade and Deng miss extended time due to injuries?  Count on it.

 

All in all, I think they'll have a good record.  Like 4-6-seed level.  I expect them to land at 5 and tell themselves, "Well, we're experienced so we don't need homecourt in the playoffs, blah, blah ..."

[Guard]

Why would the media be high on this team after what they saw in the playoffs? Hell, there are Hawks fans that aren't high on this team going into the upcoming season and rightfully so. 

 

Health will be a big factor with the Heat. They would've been in the playoffs but their team got decimated with injuries. The Heat's starting five has the potential to be real good though. Wade, Whiteside, Bosh, Dragic, and Deng/Winslow. Despite them adding  some youth to their bench, age will also be a big factor with them.

[lethalweapon3]

I cut Matt Moore plenty of slack, because he was the one power-ranking sportswriter out in the wilderness touting the 2014-15 Hawks around Thanksgiving, well before the rest of Pundit World figured out what hit them. He'll come around quickly if Atlanta pulls it together post-DeMarre.

 

 , but I've scribbled down Miami in front of the Dirty South Division, in PaperMate^TM erasable ink. Not because they are clearly the class of the Southeast in 2016, but because they had better be. Luxury taxes are one thing, but if you're going to skirt the line of repeater taxes, and you're an owner making money off of floating norovirus traps, you'd better own a team that's not, at best, a first-round road 'dog.

 

As already opined by several above, a new division title banner in Miami is assuming a lot of things. D-Wade and the poster child for "Ran Into the Ground," Luol Deng, must hold up through the springtime. McBob has to come back healthy and be some semblance of what they're paying for. Bosh has to come back healthy and be a better defensive presence, while Hassan Whiteside must avoid becoming Larry Sanders ver. 2.0. Bosh and Dragic must show they understand that the best defense isn't their offense. Birdman and Not So Super Mario are goners, because repeater taxes, so the back line of Napier/Gerald Green/rookie Winslow/McBob/Amar'e must become functional, somehow. No pressure, Spoelstra! At least they're better options than Beasley/Ennis/Walker.

 

The Wizards will be a'ight, too. Dudley, Oubre, Alan Anderson, Gary Neal and a now-self-aware Otto Porter will make up all the offense Paul Pierce provided, and they'll do it without the unnecessary bloviating and darkside posturing. But Dudley isn't all that scary in the 4-spot, and Nene and Gortat are some shaky stilts to rest the post defense upon. The media continues to overhype the efficacy of the Wall & Beal backcourt because it makes their wet dream of KD Coming Home to make a new Big Three seem plausible.

 

The Hornets aren't quite there, as they'll need time to gel. Batum will be very helpful to Kemba if he can at least continue making shots better then Gerald Henderson ever could. Jeremy Lin will have maybe a whole row of local Chinese fans cheering in the stands, and the pressure is off for him having to be The Man, finally -- he can finally be the steady backup guard he was destined to be, rather than somebody's savior. Frank the Tank and Spencer Hawes should be enough to replace what they lost when their catalyst McBob left in 2014. Al Jefferson's effectiveness is most tied to his footwork and mobility, so what he'll look like after an offseason to rest nagging injuries and drop weight is a wild card. And Lance is gone, so there's that. Defensively for Charlotte, the plan involves MKG, and prayer.

 

Keep drinking your milk, Orlando, you're getting stronger.

 

The competition committee has greatly helped the Hawks/heat/Wiz, because the Icklantic Division is about to reach multiple tiers of wretchedness. Even with the ability to routinely drub the Suxers, everybody else in the Atlantic is sinking below .500 (sorry, DeMarre. You and Lowry are stranded on an island in a sea of 1-way players). The Melo-Knicks might even win that thing, it's so bad. Letting 1-through-8 shake out that way unless there's a need to put a division champ at 8 will be advantageous for the non-division winners of the Central and Southeast.

 

~lw3

[hazer]

Good. One of my favorite things is when Hawks make pundits look like fools...

Edited July 16, 2015 by hazer

[JETSET]

I will be going all in if this ends up being the win total line for the Hawks this year.

 

http://gamingtoday.com/race_sports/nba/article/54866-Predicting_NBA_season_win_totals#.VaezWvm8p0Y

 

"Atlanta Hawks: (40.5 LY), finished 61-21: Last year’s top overachiever. Will be bigger with Tiago Splitter and Edy Tavares alongside Paul Millsap and Al Horford, but need point guards Jeff Teague and Dennis Schröder to take another step forward. Kyle Korver and Thabo Sefolosha returning to health also essential. Projected wins: 46.5"

 

They have the Heat, Raptors and Wizards projected at 47.5.  The Bulls and Cavs are also higher which puts us at 6th in the East.  These fools are clueless.  Just more disrespect towards us which works out very well for betting futures.

Edited July 16, 2015 by JETSET

[AHF]

I think the analysis on our SF is spot on.  We will miss Carroll on offense because even if Thabo has a decent year shooting, he just doesn't shoot enough to get the respect on D that Carroll draws.  On D, Thabo should be even better than Carroll when healthy.  The real hit is what is behind them.  We are taking a big collective step back defensively going from DMC/Thabo to Thabo/Fill-in-the-blank.  

The big upgrades for us are Splitter and continued growth from Dennis.  Hopefully Hardaway will start playing D and rebound his shot and Holiday will prove to be a standout defender off the bench.  I like us in the 50-60 win range for this season with my biggest concerns being SF depth (we've got a lot of guys I am fine with at SG) and the health of Korver & Thabo.  

I will be going all in if this ends up being the win total line for the Hawks this year.

 

http://gamingtoday.com/race_sports/nba/article/54866-Predicting_NBA_season_win_totals#.VaezWvm8p0Y

 

"Atlanta Hawks: (40.5 LY), finished 61-21: Last year’s top overachiever. Will be bigger with Tiago Splitter and Edy Tavares alongside Paul Millsap and Al Horford, but need point guards Jeff Teague and Dennis Schröder to take another step forward. Kyle Korver and Thabo Sefolosha returning to health also essential. Projected wins: 46.5"

 

They have the Heat, Raptors and Wizards projected at 47.5.  The Bulls and Cavs are also higher which puts us at 6th in the East.  These fools are clueless.  Just more disrespect towards us which works out very well for betting futures.

 

That is a very attractive line.  Last year's was too!