2018 Hawksquawk Dynasty Draft - Picks and Discussion

[TheNorthCydeRises]

2 hours ago, AHF said:

Gotta go where the value takes you in a draft.  UK players get the tie breaker for me but there were no ties for me when I was drafting at any spot.  I'm not going to "homer" my team by taking somebody who isn't good enough to even be on an NBA roster or who happens to wear a UK or Atlanta uniform just because I root for the guy.

SMH

 

[TheNorthCydeRises]

In all seriousness, I guess this would how you would rank the top 5 Kentucky players taken in this draft

 

1) Davis . . . future Hall of Fame

2) Towns . . . future Hall of Fame

3) Cousins . . . future Hall of Fame

4) Booker . . . possible All-NBA

5) Murray . . . decent starter

 

 

[lethalweapon3]

"Size Matters!" Or, does it?

Only one-and-a-half inches. But, fifteen-and-a-half pounds. That's what separates the tallest and heaviest Dynasty Draft teams from the shortest and lightest.

(sources: NBA.com team rosters, basketball-reference for the unrestricted free agents)

DYNASTY DRAFT TEAMS BY AVERAGE HEIGHT

TheNorthCydeRIses - 6.686 feet (just under 6'8-1/4") (incl. Porzingis, tallest Drafted player, at 7'3"; incl. Lou Williams at 6'1")

Marvin24Williams - 6.635

pimp - 6.628

JayBirdHawk - 6.622

LucastheThird - 6.622

capstone21 - 6.609

Buzzard - 6.603

AHF - 6.596

lethalweapon3 - 6.596 (incl. four players at 7-foot-or-higher, most in Dynasty Draft)

HopefulHawksFan - 6.577 (incl. three players at 7-foot-or-higher)

Spud2nique - 6.577

turnermx - 6.558 (just under 6'6-3/4") (incl. Isaiah Thomas, only Draftee under six feet, at 5'9"; incl. Whiteside at 7'0") 

 

DYNASTY DRAFT TEAMS BY AVERAGE WEIGHT

TheNorthCydeRises - 228.9 lbs. (incl. 270-lb. Cousins, 265-lb. Dwight, 251-lb. Wendell Carter, and 250-lb. LeBron; lightest player on roster is Lou at 175 lbs.)

pimp - 226.6 (also four players at 250 lbs. or more, incl. 279-lb. Drummond, 250-lb. Jabari)

capstone21 - 224.8 (also four players at 250 lbs. or more)

LucastheThird - 222.8

turnermx - 222.6 (four players under 200 lbs., incl. Huerter at 194 lbs.)

Marvin24Williams - 219.2

JayBirdHawk - 219.0 (incl. Jusuf Nurkic, heaviest Drafted player at 280 lbs.; also incl. Dejounte Murray, lightest Drafted player at 170 lbs.)

AHF - 218.5

lethalweapon3 - 217.3

Spud2Nique - 216.9

HopefulHawksFan - 215.9

Buzzard - 213.2 (incl. five players under 200 lbs.; Ingram lightest non-guard at 190 lbs., Otto Porter at 198 lbs.; Myles Turner heaviest on roster at 255 lbs.)

 

~lw3

[pimp]

This is what my team would look like vs Spud or Buzzard’s team.

[pimp]

[Spud2nique]

19 hours ago, pimp said:

? what the... 

 

 

[Buzzard]

23 hours ago, pimp said:

 

I am think your team would look something like the above no matter who you played.

[AHF]

On 8/17/2018 at 8:12 PM, TheNorthCydeRises said:

In all seriousness, I guess this would how you would rank the top 5 Kentucky players taken in this draft

 

1) Davis . . . future Hall of Fame

2) Towns . . . future Hall of Fame

3) Cousins . . . future Hall of Fame

4) Booker . . . possible All-NBA

5) Murray . . . decent starter

 

 

For me, I agree AD is going to be HOF.  Towns and Cousins have HOF potential but aren’t as likely as AD (Towns with better odds than Cuz).

Agree Booker has All-NBA potential but to deserve it he needs to get considerably more efficient.

I’d put John Wall in that same bucket and bump Murray out of the top 5.

[Spud2nique]

2 hours ago, AHF said:

Agree Booker has All-NBA potential but to deserve it he needs to get considerably more efficient.

Yup specially on D..he improves that a bit and he could be an all nba second team in the next couple seasons.

[lethalweapon3]

Compiling the SUM-MELO scores, on the way soon. For a re-primer on the basis for SUM-MELO. here goes a couple of CARMELO links.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/carmelo/

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/our-nba-player-projections-are-ready-for-2018-19/

~lw3

[Spud2nique]

8 minutes ago, lethalweapon3 said:

Compiling the SUM-MELO scores, on the way soon. For a re-primer on the basis for SUM-MELO. here goes a couple of CARMELO links.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/carmelo/

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/our-nba-player-projections-are-ready-for-2018-19/

~lw3

? 

[TheNorthCydeRises]

4 hours ago, lethalweapon3 said:

Compiling the SUM-MELO scores, on the way soon. For a re-primer on the basis for SUM-MELO. here goes a couple of CARMELO links.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/carmelo/

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/our-nba-player-projections-are-ready-for-2018-19/

~lw3

So the TRUE BALLER, Jordan Crawford, can't get an evaluation on CARMELO?  

This is madness!!!

[lethalweapon3]

55 minutes ago, TheNorthCydeRises said:

So the TRUE BALLER, Jordan Crawford, can't get an evaluation on CARMELO?  

This is madness!!!

I had a workaround... last year's!

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/carmelo-2017-18/jordan-crawford/

Joe Jeezus had one for this year, though!

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/carmelo/joe-johnson/

~lw3

[Buzzard]

On 8/19/2018 at 3:57 PM, AHF said:

For me, I agree AD is going to be HOF.  Towns and Cousins have HOF potential but aren’t as likely as AD (Towns with better odds than Cuz).

Agree Booker has All-NBA potential but to deserve it he needs to get considerably more efficient.

I’d put John Wall in that same bucket and bump Murray out of the top 5.

Injury is the only thing that will keep KAT out of the HOF, 10 years of these counting stats and he is a lock.

Career so far:

21.6 PPG 11.7 TRB, 1,4 BPG, .543 FG%, .387 3P%, .836 FT%

I got me a HOF Ringer. Enough Said!

[capstone21]

1 hour ago, Buzzard said:

Injury is the only thing that will keep KAT out of the HOF, 10 years of these counting stats and he is a lock.

Career so far:

21.6 PPG 11.7 TRB, 1,4 BPG, .543 FG%, .387 3P%, .836 FT%

I got me a HOF Ringer. Enough Said!

...not if his teams continues to suck and underperform.  

[lethalweapon3]

TOP SUM-MELO SCORES, 2018-19 Season

AHF: 43.1 (incl. James Harden's 11.8, Kyle Lowry's 7.5, Draymond Green's 7.0)

lethalweapon3: 40.8 (incl. Chris Paul's 9.1, Victor Oladipo's 7.7)

Buzzard: 36.4 (incl. Karl-Anthony Towns' 7.6, Otto Porter's 7.0)

TheNorthCydeRises: 35.7 (incl. LeBron James' 11.5, DeMarcus Cousins' 6.0, Lonzo Ball's 5.8)

capstone21: 35.1 (incl. Kevin Durant's 6.8)

HopefulHawksFan: 34.8 (incl. Russell Westbrook's league-high 12.4, Paul George's 6.2)

Marvin24Williams: 34.1 (incl. Nikola Jokic and Jimmy Butler's 8.3, Jrue Holiday's 5.4)

turnermx: 34.1 (incl. Anthony Davis' 8.2, Damian Lillard's 8.1)

LucastheThird: 32.0 (incl. Ben Simmons' 8.8)

JayBirdHawk: 31.2 (incl. Giannis Antetokounmpo's 9.8, Kemba Walker's 6.3)

pimp: 30.7 (incl. Kawhi Leonard's 5.6, Kyrie Irving's 5.3)

Spud2Nique: 26.3 (incl. Stephen Curry's 9.6, Donovan Mitchell's 5.9)

 

TOP SUM-MELO SCORES, 2022-23 Season

Buzzard: 35.2 (incl. Towns' 7.1)

JayBirdHawk: 29.1 (incl. Antetokounmpo's 8.2)

lethalweapon3: 28.8 (incl. Oladipo's 4.6)

AHF: 26.5 (incl. Harden's 5.9)

LucastheThird: 26.5 (incl. Simmons' league-high 9.9, Jayson Tatum's 8.1)

Marvin24Wiliiams: 26.3 (incl. Jokic's 6.7)

TheNorthCydeRises: 24.0 (incl. Ball's 6.4)

pimp: 22.8 (incl. Luka Doncic's 5.3, Harrison Barnes' league-low minus-0.4)

Spud2Nique: 22.8 (incl. Mitchell's 6.3)

turnermx: 21.5 (incl. Davis' 5.6)

HopefulHawksFan: 15.9 (incl. Westbrook's 5.8)

capstone21: 10.0 (incl. Durant's 2.9)

 

BEST SUM-MELO DECLINES, 2019-2023

Buzzard: -3.3% (incl. Towns down just 0.5 CARMELO points, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander up 2.8, Brandon Ingram up 2.0, Dennis Smith up 1.7, OG Anunoby up 1.4)

JayBirdHawk: -6.7% (incl. Kevin Knox up 2.0, Bam Adebayo up 1.4, Jarrett Allen up 1.2)

Spud2Nique: -13.3% (incl. Trae Young up 3.1, Lonnie Walker up 1.8, Josh Jackson up 1.3, Jonathan Isaac and Malik Monk up 1.2, Donovan Mitchell and Jaylen Brown up 0.4)

LucastheThird: -17.2% (incl. Collin Sexton up 2.4, Tatum up 1.6, Ben Simmons up 1.1)

Marvin24Williams: -22.9%

pimp: -25.7%

lethalweapon3: -29.4%

TheNorthCydeRises: -32.8%

turnermx: -37.0%

AHF: -38.5%

HopefulHawksFan: -54.3%

capstone21: -71.8% (incl Zach LaVine up 0.2)

 

TOP 5-YEAR CARMELO MARKET VALUES ($Billion), 2019-2023

Buzzard: $1.689 (incl. Towns' $317.0 Million, Otto Porter's $259.1 Million)

lethalweapon3: $1.589 (despite no Draftees in Top 10 for Market Value; incl. Victor Oladipo's $265.8 Million)

AHF: $1.551 (incl. Kyle Lowry's $222.2 Million)

JayBirdHawk: $1.434 (incl. Antetokpunmpo's $378.0 Million, Kevin Knox at league-low MINUS-$6.3 Million???)

Marvin24Williams:- $1.399 (incl. Nikola Jokic's $328.5 Million)

TheNorthCydeRises: $1.357 (incl. LeBron James' $312.5 Million)

LucastheThird: $1.340 (incl. Ben Simmons' league-high $400.7 Million, Tatum's $320.4 Million)

turnermx: $1.258 (incl. Anthony Davis' $288.3 Million)

pimp: $1.239 (incl. Kyrie Irving's $189.4 Million)

Spud2Nique: $1.166 (incl. Stephen Curry's $287.5 Million, Mitchell's $281.3 Million)

HopefulHawksFan: $1.151 (incl. Russell Westbrook's $374.3 Million)

capstone21: $1.022 (despite no Draftees in Bottom 30 for Market Value; incl. Kevin Durant's $199.8 Million)

 

~lw3

[Buzzard]

3 hours ago, capstone21 said:

...not if his teams continues to suck and underperform.  

I know you are hating the playoffs last season; but you have two stars ( Butler and KAT ) in a three star conference. Furthermore it was not Butler who carried Chicago anywhere. It was pre-injury Rose that almost got them to the finals. Chicago and Thibs just treated Butler like he was the next great one.

You need someone else to be a 3rd star to get anywhere in the West. Wiggins needs to get his mind right and be a star; or replace him or Taj with a legit star. Teague is better than just ok but he is not the 3rd star either. You have a young team man. Give them more than one playoff appearance; a 1st round loss to 2nd best team in the NBA.

[Buzzard]

Looks like my plan to draft balance at every position and youth paid off on paper! I will take this all day long

[lethalweapon3]

Quick observations:

* CARMELO is a little harsh on the prospects of players whose immediately prior season was short-circuited by injury (Hayward, Cousins, e.g.), so don't be surprised if your team (with healthier stars this time around) outperforms expectations.

 

* In a similar vein, CARMELO gets very alligator-armed when it comes to embracing rookies or lightly-used young vets. As an example, look at where they have "Future All-Star" Mitchell now...

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/carmelo/donovan-mitchell/

...with where they had "OK Prospect" Mitchell, a low-lottery rookie, last summer...

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/carmelo-2017-18/donovan-mitchell/

Or even "Great Prospect" Tatum, then, and now...

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/carmelo-2017-18/jayson-tatum/

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/carmelo/jayson-tatum/

So, if your team is stocked with youngsters, you still have a good shot of outshining early expectations as well. It's just a matter of having guessed right on the right ones. If only someone took a chance on Mitchell in last year's Dynasty Draft (AHF took Tatum 98th out of 126 picks in 2017).

 

* CARMELO has something against the Warriors! OK, not really, but it may be some kind of Win Shares-type effect, where the projections for folks like Durant, Draymond, Klay, Cousins and even Curry are dimmed, because they're not expected to dominate the usage on their team while still playing reasonably within their primes.

 

~lw3

[pimp]

17 minutes ago, lethalweapon3 said:

Quick observations:

* CARMELO is a little harsh on the prospects of players whose immediately prior season was short-circuited by injury (Hayward, Cousins, e.g.), so don't be surprised if your team (with healthier stars this time around) outperforms expectations.

 

l

 

~lw3

This is going to hurt my team due to our injuries last year.

Kawhi, Jabari, Irving, Love , and Batum, all missed a good chunk of the season last year. ?