How certain are we the Atlanta Hawks are going to be any better this season?

[enrique]

Here is the fansided article https://fansided.com/2019/07/23/fastbreak-breakfast-how-certain-are-we-atlanta-hawks-will-be-better-this-season/ which links to a podcast that interviews Jeff Siegel (Earlybirdrights.com, Peachtree Hoops) https://www.spreaker.com/user/fastbreakbreakfast/jeff-siegel-hawks-optimism-report-and-th If you are in a hurry, then skip to the 5:55 mark and listen to 21:00. All the rest is ancillary.

The question he asks is our optimism for the Hawks this year based on reality. More than that, both the interviewer and Siegel are very down on the off-season moves the Hawks made including the trade up for Hunter.

I know this has been discussed in other threads, but here is a Hawks-focused podcast episode with national reach discussing it. For me, knowing that JC missed the first 20 games of last year and Trae/Huerter didn't hit their stride until two months into season, I feel that 35+ wins should be a simple improvement. I do have fairly large concerns over Dedmon's departure and the non-ready state of Bruno. 

I know I have seen predictions up to the mid-40s. In this podcast they seem to be sold on ATL performing under last year's record. They wouldn't take the over on the Vegas line of 32. Really odd to me.

What do you all think?

 

[Vol4ever]

I just dont see a big increase.  It looks to me Schlenk wants to be in another lottery.   The picks this year are good but they are rookies and it will take half a year.  

[marco102]

My opinion is the Hawks will have about 35 - 43 wins this year.  It's not based on anything but my Hawks fandom.  It has just as much merit as the guys in the podcast. 

[Buzzard]

NBA Season is 82 games. The last half we played at 17 and 34. With no improvement and providing we are at least as good, that will give us a 34 and 48 record. I think we should improve. Parker is better than any scorer we had off the bench last season. Crabbe is a better career 3pt shooter than anyone we had period. Turner should at least be a better BU PG than Adams. If Parsons comes through; its a heck of a overall upgrade to our bench. Making up for Dedmon and Plumlees combined impact will be the toughest ask in my opinion. One of Hunter and Reddish need to contribute around 10 - 13 points a game this year to off set Prince.

The East did not get tougher with the loss of Leonard. Add in that Boston lost Horford ( they gained Kemba lost Irving ) and it is reasonable to think they did not improve. I don't think Philly improved by losing Reddick and Butler vs adding Richardson and Horford. I am not impressed with the Heats one man team in Butler. Winslow is average at best. The Nets lost Dlo and gained Irving for this season. My thought is big deal for them also. I think Indy will improve the most team wise with Oladipo coming back and they added Brogdon.

I just don't see any teams in the East making big jumps this off season. If we stay the course, 34 wins is a minimum outlook for me. I am hoping for 40.

[gurpilo]

I think we should be better, I think we should be good dor 35-36 wins on an standard scenario. Best case scenario could be above 40 wins.

Young, Collins and Huerter should improve this season and Bembry and Len should perform as last year, with that five if they are healthy we should improve vs last year.

On the additions vs departures

Damion Jones << Dedmon, this is a clear loss for Atlanta today although I recognize there is some improvement margin to close the gap if Len plays as 2nd half, if Bruno contributes next year and if Jones is healthy that is a big IF..... he also needs to learn to shoot and play in our system. One fact we should consider is that a big on the east performs better than on west and Jones was good to start for some games on Warriors so....

Hunter < Prince, this is a tough call, I think long term he is going to be better but on his first season I think is going to be hard for Hunter to perform as Prince last year. We will miss his scoring and hopefully his defense will be better than Prince but it would be normal if a rookie is lost first half of the season at NBA. For me the biggest questionmark for Hunter is if he is going to be able to play at our pace.

Turner = Lin, lower PER but I think his impact on defense will be good for the team, I question his fit on offense

Crabbe > Baze if healthy, better offense and underated defender, best +/- player on Nets 2 seasons ago

Parker > Spellman, he could have a very positive impact on the team

Reddish = Carter next season, long term he will be better of course but Carter won 2 or 3 games for Hawks, can we expect the same from Cam?

Fernando = Plumlee, not expecting much on first season

Parsons, I don't think he plays at all....

Overall, additions vs substractions I think we are even although I am really worried at C. Based solely on the improvement of our young core we should be near 35 wins, if Cam and Hunter live to expectations we could add a few more wins, I would consider normal if they struggle first half of the season. If we get an improved performance from Len, Jones and Fernando we could add also a few wins. I think we should be on 34-40 wins if everyone healthy. If we have injuries on Young or Collins we coulg go to the bottom of the league.

[NBASupes]

I am.
Why?
Four reasons

1. Fit
2. Talent 
3. System
4. Trae Young

Fit - We are one of the best fits in the NBA. Trae, John and Kevin fit was in the top 5 of unit offensive efficiency as and our offense efficiency with Collins was 6th in the entire NBA. I have a feeling that we should see Trae take an enormous jump on offense either equaling or like Fox being better than his best rookie year and being a rare 5-6 offensive player. By that being one of the best offensive players in the NBA which I do believe is possible as Trae was a top 12 offensive player after ASB. 

I have Collins who projections think he outplayed his offense expectancy when combining the years to become a 2-3 PF on offense and hit the 3 mark which he hit the 1.9 mark last year. I can easily see him average 24-25ppg this year. 

I do expect Kev to improve and hit his projected marks but I am not expecting to him to top it. 

I haven't graded the SF position since Cam is my expected starter and I expect him and Hunter to split mins but I have no expectations other than it will be a better fit than Prince just due to the defensive improvements of both players over Prince and I especially high on Reddish. Although not high enough to project him which is why I tend not to project rookies before they play in terms of w/ls.

Len is a guy I expect to produce and he was always produced with Trae on the court. I do expect Dedmon to be a lose and one that we feel fit wise especially Collins but not one that moves us from winning less than 44 games if we stay relatively healthy. 

2. I just explained that I strongly fit Trae should be a top end offensive player in year 2. I also feel that way for Collins for a big. Those two should be worth enough wins for 44 games in either conference. I strongly believe that. I do feel the projections are right about Kevin Huerter. I think he is on that path. He could outplay it but I doubt it. 

I just don't think Dedmon is worth a win or loss honestly. He has value but he is a replacement level player but he fits any system so that makes him a good fill in player which is great if you are big on fit which matters in the NBA. 

3. System outside of fit and talent is the 3rd most important indicator of regular season wins for NBA teams. A great system can win you more games than your projected talent and fit. Atlanta has a tremendous offensive system that teams steal from which is strange considering how young we are but youth has NEVER been a indicator of regular season success. I expect us to win games just due to outscoring and outpacing teams off the court that felt we were a win on their schedule. Something we seen last year to a lesser degree. 

4. Trae Young will take a major step up. If you seen his Jan to Apr, he was 24/9 monster. He was unstoppable and the Hawks were extremely tough to beat with one of the most injury riddled teams in the NBA last year. With Trae playing 35 minutes per game, I expect the that to be the norm with efficiency just as high or better. I am expecting a top 3-5 offensive campaign in the tier of Steph, Dame, Kemba, and Kyrie which is high feasible due to the 3 things list above and his offensive talent. I do expect Trae to be better on defense just by the addition of Hunter and Reddish as well as reaching his projected defensive metrics. If Trae is a +2 overall player, 44 wins is extremely possible and expected. If he reachs +3 or +4, watch out. All NBA possibilites is in reach. The projects have Trae as a net neutral player. I have him as a +2.5 projection.

Hawks finished the new year 17-23 and 17-22 with Trae, I don't look at that as an anomaly, I look at that as what we were with injuries and all due to Trae impact. I expect us to take a leap from that time where we had one of the injury riddle squads in the NBA last year.

Edited July 24, 2019 by NBASupes

[JayBirdHawk]

Certainty? No.

Expectation to have a better W/L record? Yes.

I have a projected number of wins in mind, but again...I'll wait until after training camp and preseason to post it.

[hazer]

Possible, but not certain. I’m good with another late lottery pick, also good with a feisty 1st-round exit. 

[AHF]

11 minutes ago, hazer said:

Possible, but not certain. I’m good with another late lottery pick, also good with a feisty 1st-round exit. 

In this new lottery odds era, a late lottery position can result in a high pick.   I think that is on TS's mind.

[Spud2nique]

In the east, very certain. Even at this stage in our development as a team I’m only afraid of 2 eastern teams and that’s the Bucks and Sixers. I’m not saying we finish 3rd in the east but I think we are a top 8 team in the east.

[Atlantaholic]

Everything will hinge on how Trae Young is able to improve. I think that a significant leap is very probable with Young; just based on the improvement he already displayed last year it seems like the arrow is pointing up in a big way in year two with Young. If Young plays at a legit all - star level next year, which I feel many fans are kinds of expecting, I think we will be in that 35-40 range regardless of how long it takes our draft picks to start contributing. 

Edited July 24, 2019 by Atlantaholic

[Buzzard]

20 minutes ago, Spud2nique said:

In the east, very certain. Even at this stage in our development as a team I’m only afraid of 2 eastern teams and that’s the Bucks and Sixers. I’m not saying we finish 3rd in the east but I think we are a top 8 team in the east.

To the Bucks and Sixers, I will add Indy provided Oladipo is ready to go. I think we can beat any team in the East other than those three. Similar to you, I am not saying that is a 4th seed for us. Collins, Trae, Huerter improving with Len taking up right where he left off at the end of the season with around 14 and 7 or 8. I think Hunter's D is going to be just as good, if not better, than Prince from day 1.

Schlenk is obviously going all in with his picks this season again for a large chunk of the minutes. Most of us expected that. Their improvement and impact is what will determine our season.

1- Cut down on turn overs.

2- Improve efficiency.

3- Improve defense.

Those should be three things posted in the Hawks locker room in large capital letters.

Edited July 24, 2019 by Buzzard

[NBASupes]

Vic likely won't be ready till January 

 

Teams I am very bullish on compared to last season's record: Orlando, Atlanta, Boston, Chicago, LAL, LAC and Sacramento.

Edited July 24, 2019 by NBASupes

[Peoriabird]

The desert of the NBA offseason is here and, while the Atlanta Hawks did make a signing on Thursday, most of the basketball-related activity in late July revolves around early projections for next season. To that end, an off-shore outlet placed the opening over/under for the Hawks at 32.5 wins earlier in July but, on Thursday, the good folks at Caesars Entertainment in Las Vegas set the bar a bit higher.

While the Hawks are projected in the same tier as a team expected to miss the playoffs, Caesars pegs Atlanta’s win total at 36 victories.

This Sounds about right!

https://www.peachtreehoops.com/2019/7/25/8930649/atlanta-hawks-over-under-win-total-2019-20-season-caesars-las-vegas-projection

[gurpilo]

Actually I think this prediction might be good, 35-36 wins is what I think might happen. I am surprised how everyone is sleeping on the Knicks, I think they are going to be better than evey prediction.

[AHF]

2 minutes ago, gurpilo said:

Actually I think this prediction might be good, 35-36 wins is what I think might happen. I am surprised how everyone is sleeping on the Knicks, I think they are going to be better than evey prediction.

I just can't wait for the Knicks to break out their 5 PF lineup.

[macdaddy]

Our best player improved a lot last season.  

I agree with Supes.  It's fit.   Baze and Prince were poor fits for this offense.  We have legit rotation guys and a lot of young guns who are good fits.   Whether we can play any defense I don't know but we were terrible on defense last year too.  

[Gray Mule]

13 minutes ago, macdaddy said:

Our best player improved a lot last season.  

I agree with Supes.  It's fit.   Baze and Prince were poor fits for this offense.  We have legit rotation guys and a lot of young guns who are good fits.   Whether we can play any defense I don't know but we were terrible on defense last year too.  

Hawks drafted for defense.  We'll see.

[Peoriabird]

1 hour ago, gurpilo said:

. I am surprised how everyone is sleeping on the Knicks, I think they are going to be better than evey prediction.

The Knicks?

[High5]

Based on last year's numbers, the Knicks don't even have an average shooter in their starting lineup. Spacing issues with inexperience seems like a bad time.