Coronavirus!

[JayBirdHawk]

37 minutes ago, bleachkit said:

Well Gambia, Somaia, Nicaragua, Cambodia are doing nothing. Many of those countries are listed are not strictly enforcing policies. I would love to see a world wide study on this in a few months. 

So 4 out of a lot...but even that chart is just one of many. It's easy to google local news in those parts of the world. So to say MOST are not enforcing policies is incorrect.

Example, Gambia 1st reported case:

 

[MaceCase]

1 hour ago, kg01 said:

It will be devastating if we rush back to "normal" and have a resurgence.

For the general public, absolutely.  For me, I'd like the ease of mind knowing I have even just a few months of immunity from contracting and spreading.

[bleachkit]

10 minutes ago, JayBirdHawk said:

So 4 out of a lot...but even that chart is just one of many. It's easy to google local news in those parts of the world. So to say MOST are not enforcing policies is incorrect.

Example, Gambia 1st reported case:

 

My point is that social distancing prevents a spike in deaths, and does decrease deaths overall. But I don't think it results in a 95%+ reduction in would be deaths, like questionable models are suggesting. That's not plausible. Forthcoming data will support my hypothesis.

[kg01]

23 minutes ago, MaceCase said:

For the general public, absolutely.  For me, I'd like the ease of mind knowing I have even just a few months of immunity from contracting and spreading.

That's a good point.  I can only imagine how it would feel to end up infecting someone unknowingly just because of having to be out in the workforce.  Hopefully you don't get pushed.

See all these folks acting like it's not a big deal are basically doing so because they don't have to deal with it themselves.  They think, "Well I'm ok so what's the big deal."  Basically screw everybody else.

[bleachkit]

2 minutes ago, kg01 said:

That's a good point.  I can only imagine how it would feel to end up infecting someone unknowingly just because of having to be out in the workforce.  Hopefully you don't get pushed.

See all these folks acting like it's not a big deal are basically doing so because they don't have to deal with it themselves.  They think, "Well I'm ok so what's the big deal."  Basically screw everybody else.

If you work with the elderly, you absolutely have to be careful not to be a potential spreader. I don't see why 20 years olds putting a ball in a hoop can't resume their occupation though.

[TheNorthCydeRises]

30 minutes ago, bleachkit said:

If you work with the elderly, you absolutely have to be careful not to be a potential spreader. I don't see why 20 years olds putting a ball in a hoop can't resume their occupation though.

 

Well in my case, I have my mother living with us because she has COPD and I refuse to put her into a nursing home.  Since 2013 she's caught pneumonia twice and had to be intubated and in ICU for 9 days back in 2015

Ever since my "mild sickness" 4 weeks ago, I've been watching her like a hawk and making sure she's OK.  So far so good.  

But since I wasn't allowed to work from home, and because they put my ass on 2 weeks of unemployment, I HAVE to be back in this facility . . . of 1100 people . . . in which I'm in the vicinity of 200 - 300 different people at any point in the day.   The policies my company have put in place may cut that number in half, but that's still a lot of different "air streams" I come in contact with every day.  This paper thin surgical mask isn't going to stop the virus from spreading, but it does meet minimum guidelines.

 

The problem with COVID is the spread/contamination rate.  You pretty much have to be in direct contact with someone to get the flu, or be immune compromised to get it.  With COVID, you can simply be in a small convenience store with bad air stagnating, breathe that crap in, and get it.  Or at work in a small conference room with just 7 people, and spread it.

The crazy thing is, people are thinking we were about to turn the corner, just because we had a few days in which deaths and new cases dropped slightly.   Well right now, we've just set a record high in deaths ( 2,150+ and counting ), with 6 states reporting 100+ deaths for the first time in this outbreak   And it may be 7 by the end of the day with Illinois at 74 dead today.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

 

Even if this thing continues to fall of in New York, it's still ramping up in other states.  So the question is . . does everything open back up if we're still over 1,000 deaths a day from this thing?   Trump is already setting this up to put extreme pressure on the Governors to open up, who are seeing their budgets go to hell.  From that standpoint alone, they'll eventually do it.

It's so important that people understand trends and numbers.  

[JayBirdHawk]

Quote

The US Food and Drug Administration has authorized a saliva test for "emergency use" for diagnosing Covid-19. Rutgers University, where the test was developed in collaboration with other groups, announced the FDA authorization on Tuesday after formally receiving it over the weekend.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/14/health/coronavirus-test-saliva-fda-emergency-use-bn/index.html

 

[JayBirdHawk]

37 minutes ago, TheNorthCydeRises said:

 

Well in my case, I have my mother living with us because she has COPD and I refuse to put her into a nursing home.  Since 2013 she's caught pneumonia twice and had to be intubated and in ICU for 9 days back in 2015

Ever since my "mild sickness" 4 weeks ago, I've been watching her like a hawk and making sure she's OK.  So far so good.  

But since I wasn't allowed to work from home, and because they put my ass on 2 weeks of unemployment, I HAVE to be back in this facility . . . of 1100 people . . . in which I'm in the vicinity of 200 - 300 different people at any point in the day.   The policies my company have put in place may cut that number in half, but that's still a lot of different "air streams" I come in contact with every day.  This paper thin surgical mask isn't going to stop the virus from spreading, but it does meet minimum guidelines.

I'm keeping you on prayer.

[TheNorthCydeRises]

57 minutes ago, JayBirdHawk said:

I'm keeping you on prayer.

Appreciate it ma'am.  And I'll do the same for you and your family.

[bleachkit]

1 hour ago, TheNorthCydeRises said:

 

Well in my case, I have my mother living with us because she has COPD and I refuse to put her into a nursing home.  Since 2013 she's caught pneumonia twice and had to be intubated and in ICU for 9 days back in 2015

Ever since my "mild sickness" 4 weeks ago, I've been watching her like a hawk and making sure she's OK.  So far so good.  

But since I wasn't allowed to work from home, and because they put my ass on 2 weeks of unemployment, I HAVE to be back in this facility . . . of 1100 people . . . in which I'm in the vicinity of 200 - 300 different people at any point in the day.   The policies my company have put in place may cut that number in half, but that's still a lot of different "air streams" I come in contact with every day.  This paper thin surgical mask isn't going to stop the virus from spreading, but it does meet minimum guidelines.

 

The problem with COVID is the spread/contamination rate.  You pretty much have to be in direct contact with someone to get the flu, or be immune compromised to get it.  With COVID, you can simply be in a small convenience store with bad air stagnating, breathe that crap in, and get it.  Or at work in a small conference room with just 7 people, and spread it.

The crazy thing is, people are thinking we were about to turn the corner, just because we had a few days in which deaths and new cases dropped slightly.   Well right now, we've just set a record high in deaths ( 2,150+ and counting ), with 6 states reporting 100+ deaths for the first time in this outbreak   And it may be 7 by the end of the day with Illinois at 74 dead today.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

 

Even if this thing continues to fall of in New York, it's still ramping up in other states.  So the question is . . does everything open back up if we're still over 1,000 deaths a day from this thing?   Trump is already setting this up to put extreme pressure on the Governors to open up, who are seeing their budgets go to hell.  From that standpoint alone, they'll eventually do it.

It's so important that people understand trends and numbers.  

Yes, Covid-19 is extremely contagious. That's why I keep telling people the number of confirmed cases is just the tip of the iceberg. Social distancing or not, tens of millions have it or have had it. 

Probably unpopular opinion here, but I personally am in favor of opening up the economy in May. There's no perfect time to do it. The virus will continue to spread no matter what, that's what they do. You can't live in a bubble. Protect the elderly and the infirm. Wash hands, use good practices. But It's not as deadly as we originally thought, and the risk to the young and the healthy is not that great.

[thecampster]

And the blame game and misdirection begins

 

https://www.yahoo.com/news/trump-announces-halt-us-funding-222750658.html

[HawkItus]

Hi folks,

How are you?  Hope everyone is well.  I think the secret little item that I keep hearing is the 2nd & 3rd waves.  This thing is most likely not close to over.  Be vigilant.

 

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/pandemic-resources/1918-commemoration/three-waves.htm

[bleachkit]

18 minutes ago, HawkItus said:

Hi folks,

How are you?  Hope everyone is well.  I think the secret little item that I keep hearing is the 2nd & 3rd waves.  This thing is most likely not close to over.  Be vigilant.

 

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/pandemic-resources/1918-commemoration/three-waves.htm

It depends what you consider a "wave". Mild resurgence is certainly possible, a major one like 1918 I would doubt. 

[JayBirdHawk]

Bummer if accurate:

Quote

In a phone call last week, some of the nation's top scientists briefed White House officials about antibody testing, according to two doctors who were on the call.

Much of the news wasn't very good.

Antibody tests check to see if a person has previously been infected with Covid-19, an indication that they've had the virus and now could be immune to it.

....on the April 6 phone call, members of the National Academy of Sciences' Standing Committee on Emerging Infectious Diseases and 21st Century Health Threats told members of the White House Office of Science and Technology Policy there are issues with the availability and reliability of the antibody tests in the United States right now. "In three words: Work in progress," said Dr. David Relman, a member of the National Academy of Sciences committee who was on the call.

There are several layers of issues with the antibody tests:

The American Public Health Lab Association says that has resulted in "crappy" tests flooding the market.

"It's like the wild, wild West out there -- or wild East," said association CEO Scott Becker, a reference to the fact that at least half the companies making these tests are in China.

A few days after the phone call, the NAS scientists wrote a letter to the White House frankly apprising them about the quality of antibody tests.

Results from antibody tests "should be viewed as suspect until rigorous controls are performed and performance characteristics described, as antibody detection methods can vary considerably, and most so far have not described well-standardized controls," according to the letter.

Second, there are good tests in the midst of the bad ones, but they're not yet widely and easily available throughout the country.

Third, it's not entirely clear that having antibodies to Covid-19 means that you truly have immunity and won't get the disease again.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/14/health/coronavirus-antibody-tests-scientists/index.html

 

[JayBirdHawk]

Hopeful?

 

[JayBirdHawk]

 

 

[JayBirdHawk]

 

 

[High5]

On 4/14/2020 at 6:37 PM, bleachkit said:

Yes, Covid-19 is extremely contagious. That's why I keep telling people the number of confirmed cases is just the tip of the iceberg. Social distancing or not, tens of millions have it or have had it. 

Probably unpopular opinion here, but I personally am in favor of opening up the economy in May. There's no perfect time to do it. The virus will continue to spread no matter what, that's what they do. You can't live in a bubble. Protect the elderly and the infirm. Wash hands, use good practices. But It's not as deadly as we originally thought, and the risk to the young and the healthy is not that great.

The caution is about "flattening the curve." That mortality rate will increase if healthcare can no longer keep up with the number of cases that require attention. 

[bleachkit]

11 minutes ago, High5 said:

The caution is about "flattening the curve." That mortality rate will increase if healthcare can no longer keep up with the number of cases that require attention. 

Yes, but they are doing fine right now. There isn't a perfect way to do this. Staying in the house until a vaccine arrives is not an option.

[bleachkit]

1 hour ago, JayBirdHawk said:

 

 

Aren't quite a lot of their players overseas?