Donovan Mitchell is why you don't pass on Obi Toppin

[NBASupes]

49 minutes ago, nathan2331 said:

Who on here ever said that was going to be a winning combination? Stop it.

It wasn't a losing one in VC 1st year with the Hawks. Every combo was bad in VC 2nd year because he was fried.

Y'all do realize Toppin and JC is different. I understand both are movement players who happen to be elite finishers at similar height and close in weight but Toppin doesn't operate in the same space. If you watched the full games of Dayton, you would see all of this. If you don't, just watch this

 

 

 

[NBASupes]

3 hours ago, nathan2331 said:

Supes, I see his talent, but I question how he's gonna work on this team. As things stand today, Collins and Toppin cannot play significant minutes together and not be a disaster defensively. If they can't play together, someone would have to be moved and you're not getting equivalent value for them.

If your willing to move Collins for someone else and then draft Toppin, then that makes sense even if I wouldn't cosign that. I take your point about his development, I think he'll be good, just not in Atlanta given our current composition.

To me, there is no question he can work with ANY team, not just the Hawks. 

Why? Because he has excellent offensive BBIQ, he understands exactly where to be without it being within the play, that's Al Horfordism 101. He's a playmaker on the top of the key and on the top of the perimeter, his movement is crisp like Amar'e, he's not a movement rarity like JC is but does he have to be when he simply just has much better tools. More natural handles, far more explosive especially in traffic, and is an excellent decision maker. 

He can work with anyone offensively. There are questions defensively but when you have this BBIQ, this feel for the game, and his playmaking instincts, his explosiveness he won't be a bad defender for long. Maybe limited to a degree but bad, no. His defensive college metrics read as a decent defensive prospect. Now we all see the obvious flaws but what I am saying is, give him time to overcome it is all. He will never be known for his defense, his offense is what fuels who he is. That and his impact. 1.20 PPP in college or the NBA dont just happen. 

I don't understand this idea to move JC. Why move JC? They can play together in different sets, especially when we need shooting, want to play fast, and the other team's personnel isn't built to defend against this type of play. To me, we need to be smarter as Basketball fans. Let's watch his tape. We can't see flashes, assume he's JC 2.0 or some shit like that and just eliminate the best player in this f***ing draft who's would add the most value because he has some similarities to JC.

[thecampster]

Not criticism or praise here, but one thing I like to do when scouting these picks is looking at their weaknesses videos.

 

 

[bleachkit]

Toppin is very good at tip dunks. Those always bring a lot of excitement in game. He's a very quick and explosive leaper. 

[kg01]

7 hours ago, NBASupes said:

There is a reason I don't like emotional posting late, I can be a bit of an asshole. My apologies @kg01. You aren't f***ing blind. 

It's ok, supes.  I'm not even sad.  There must be somebody choppin' onions in the next thread ...

... I still think you're bat-crap crazy for this Toppin obsession.  Last guy you were this high on was Bagley so I'm basically trying to reign you in.  You'll thank me later.

I'll repeat my actual stance.  I have no issue with thinking this guy may be a good piece.  I take issue with the suggestion that he's gonna be some transcendent player.

I also take issue with evoking the names of Curry, Lillard, and now Mitchell as if he's going to be on that level.  For one, that ignores the vast difference between how guards impact games vs how bigs impact games.

[marco102]

58 minutes ago, NBASupes said:

To me, there is no question he can work with ANY team, not just the Hawks. 

Why? Because he has excellent offensive BBIQ, he understands exactly where to be without it being within the play, that's Al Horfordism 101. He's a playmaker on the top of the key and on the top of the perimeter, his movement is crisp like Amar'e, he's not a movement rarity like JC is but does he have to be when he simply just has much better tools. More natural handles, far more explosive especially in traffic, and is an excellent decision maker. 

He can work with anyone offensively. There are questions defensively but when you have this BBIQ, this feel for the game, and his playmaking instincts, his explosiveness he won't be a bad defender for long. Maybe limited to a degree but bad, no. His defensive college metrics read as a decent defensive prospect. Now we all see the obvious flaws but what I am saying is, give him time to overcome it is all. He will never be known for his defense, his offense is what fuels who he is. That and his impact. 1.20 PPP in college or the NBA dont just happen. 

I don't understand this idea to move JC. Why move JC? They can play together in different sets, especially when we need shooting, want to play fast, and the other team's personnel isn't built to defend against this type of play. To me, we need to be smarter as Basketball fans. Let's watch his tape. We can't see flashes, assume he's JC 2.0 or some shit like that and just eliminate the best player in this f***ing draft who's would add the most value because he has some similarities to JC.

To me, I've watched the tape.  His defense is what you are not mentioning above.  Everything you criticized Collins for on the defensive side of the ball Obi appears to be worst at. 

I'm not opposed to drafting Obi.  I see better value with other players in other positions.  I tend to agree with you on most of your draft analysis, but I can't get behind Obi because I think he's going to be one the worst power forward defenders in the league for his first few years. 

[kg01]

5 minutes ago, marco102 said:

To me, I've watched the tape.  His defense is what you are not mentioning above.  Everything you criticized Collins for on the defensive side of the ball Obi appears to be worst at. 

I'm not opposed to drafting Obi.  I see better value with other players in other positions.  I tend to agree with you on most of your draft analysis, but I can't get behind Obi because I think he's going to be one the worst power forward defenders in the league for his first few years. 

That's my other issue.  The unanswered question (re. Toppin's defense).

On Collins, he's been telling us ad nauseum that PF defense is more important that PF offense.  And that's why we shouldn't build with him.  But, on Toppin, crickets on his defense.

I've seen breakdowns of Toppin's current defense and how his physical makeup hinders improvement in that area.  But we're being asked to ignore all that.  I find that strange.

Even if someone thinks Toppin is like Tatum .. uh, one of the things that makes Tatum an excellent prospect is he can defend.  I'm not saying he's Kawhi but he sure ain't a turnstile.

[NBASupes]

28 minutes ago, kg01 said:

It's ok, supes.  I'm not even sad.  There must be somebody choppin' onions in the next thread ...

... I still think you're bat-crap crazy for this Toppin obsession.  Last guy you were this high on was Bagley so I'm basically trying to reign you in.  You'll thank me later.

I'll repeat my actual stance.  I have no issue with thinking this guy may be a good piece.  I take issue with the suggestion that he's gonna be some transcendent player.

I also take issue with evoking the names of Curry, Lillard, and now Mitchell as if he's going to be on that level.  For one, that ignores the vast difference between how guards impact games vs how bigs impact games.

He was clearly one I wanted, I was the worst for Reddish. I had a hard on for Doncic too especially once I realized he might be available at #3.

 

Most bigs of this generation have been younger prospects. I haven't seen a older growth spurt big in decades. Who can I compare him too that's been a prospect within the last 30 years? David Robinson, Scottie Pippen, and Dennis Rodman was in the 80s.

Edited August 31, 2020 by NBASupes

[JayBirdHawk]

31 minutes ago, kg01 said:

I'll repeat my actual stance.  I have no issue with thinking this guy may be a good piece.  I take issue with the suggestion that he's gonna be some transcendent player.

I also take issue with evoking the names of Curry, Lillard, and now Mitchell as if he's going to be on that level.  For one, that ignores the vast difference between how guards impact games vs how bigs impact games.

I think you may need to repeat this several times, there's gonna be a lot of time between now and the draft.

[JayBirdHawk]

1 hour ago, NBASupes said:

I don't understand this idea to move JC. Why move JC? 

I'm glad you've changed your position on this! Because you were hot to trot to do this not so long ago.

[NBASupes]

24 minutes ago, kg01 said:

That's my other issue.  The unanswered question (re. Toppin's defense).

On Collins, he's been telling us ad nauseum that PF defense is more important that PF offense.  And that's why we shouldn't build with him.  But, on Toppin, crickets on his defense.

I've seen breakdowns of Toppin's current defense and how his physical makeup hinders improvement in that area.  But we're being asked to ignore all that.  I find that strange.

Even if someone thinks Toppin is like Tatum .. uh, one of the things that makes Tatum an excellent prospect is he can defend.  I'm not saying he's Kawhi but he sure ain't a turnstile.

Wrong! Elite offense is far more important than elite defense at every position but elite defense and below average offense like Jon Issac is more important than very good offense and below average defense from JC in today's NBA. 

It's not crickets, his defense is currently projected from the eye test to be bad at the 4. The thing I keep harping is, it's not always going to be bad. Look at what these two coaches said on Toppin:

 

Quote

Length, athleticism and he’s smart, too. He’s a very smart player, especially on the defensive end. He could block every shot if he wanted, or try to. He doesn’t attempt to, though. He’ll wall up on some shots to try to disrupt you a little bit. Really good off the ball, shot-blocking. On the ball, he might not block it, but he’ll do enough to disrupt guys that try to post him up, or if someone gets beat he’ll come across the lane. He does a pretty good job of when to block a shot or wall up.

Quote

“He was kind of a dog (on defense), but I think he was very capable on defense. He might have gotten bored with college basketball, guarding 5 men that he could guard. But he’s definitely capable. I have a theory that if you have that good of feel offensively, you can figure it out on defense. You just need to give effort. It just is what it is. You just very rarely see a high-level offensive feel guy that has athleticism, and has quickness and length like that, that can’t be good defensively. He should be an animal defensively, and he will be pretty good defensively. He’ll be able to guard 4s, probably some of the 5s defensively. He’s going to guard on the perimeter, he’s going to guard inside.”

https://theathletic.com/1929578/2020/07/17/2020-nba-draft-college-coaches-poll-obi-toppin-is-a-mismatch-nightmare?source=user-shared-article

He's going to be special on offense. If he's a Hawk, he will be elite offensively. @kg01, he can be better than Mitchell offensive impact wise. He's that f***ing good on that end.

Edited August 31, 2020 by NBASupes

[NBASupes]

50 minutes ago, thecampster said:

Not criticism or praise here, but one thing I like to do when scouting these picks is looking at their weaknesses videos.

 

 

What did you see that made you think this can't be improved on? The only issue is the change of the direction and that's only an issue if you are projecting him to be a wing which I know isn't the case. With his first step, he will be fine in the NBA for face ups. 

We can do this for every player in the draft, if you like. Luka had a shitload of questionable areas. Trae had miles of questionable areas. So what are we trying to do here? What's the purpose of your post? Are you saying, we shouldn't draft a soul due to weaknesses. Damn, let's just pass on LeBron James and Michael Jordan because they have flaws. Sorry but I am not understanding the purpose of this post. Please tell me what can't be improved on, especially as a 4. 

[bleachkit]

At least Toppin's scoring is likely to translate. There are some prospects that might be borderline unplayable early on. 

[NBASupes]

Just now, bleachkit said:

At least Toppin's scoring is likely to translate. There are some prospects that might be borderline unplayable early on. 

Honestly, most of this draft is damn near unplayable in year 1.

[NBASupes]

@kg01, honestly, I don't see this shit the way you do and I can't understand how you see this shit the way you do. It's like trying to figure out why someone would say 2+2=8

When you bring up Bagley, please bring up Reddish, Zion, Doncic, etc. Dont bring up the bad without bringing up the good and Bagley is not bad either. He just has been unfortunate with injuries. 

Edited August 31, 2020 by NBASupes

[JayBirdHawk]

It's a guard/wing league!  Guys who handle the ball to make plays for themselves and others as the primary options.

Please stop comparing Toppin to the likes of Curry, Harden, Mitchell etc...He won't have the ball enough to make that kind of impact.

[NBASupes]

18 minutes ago, JayBirdHawk said:

It's a guard/wing league!  Guys who handle the ball to make plays for themselves and others as the primary options.

Please stop comparing Toppin to the likes of Curry, Harden, Mitchell etc...He won't have the ball enough to make that kind of impact.

I understand that it's a guard's league which means their skill-set is highly valued at other positions as we see with Jokic, Horford, Tatum, Green etc. That's the reason why I am so high on Toppin is because his game is modern. He uses his touches in positive ways. He takes high risk and converts at a high rate. He has all of the metrics that adjust perfectly to how the game is played today. With the Hawks, our bigs get the bulk of the touches outside of Trae/Teague. It's best we have a playmaker big man like Boston had with Horford or GS has with Green. His PPP is literally 1.20. He is the prime example of what a modern 4 man is suppose to look like offensively. 

I disagree he won't have the ball like that. Our system is heavy PnR based. bigs get the majority of our touches. 

https://stats.nba.com/players/touches/?Season=2019-20&SeasonType=Regular Season&TeamID=1610612737&sort=TOUCHES&dir=1

 

JC is 13th in the NBA for touches per game: https://stats.nba.com/players/touches/?Season=2019-20&SeasonType=Regular Season&sort=TOUCHES&dir=1&PlayerPosition=F for a big and he's only getting 7 less touches a game than Steph Curry

All of our bigs get a lot of touches. Parker was getting 52+ touches per game. 

Edited August 31, 2020 by NBASupes

[JayBirdHawk]

20 minutes ago, NBASupes said:

I understand that it's a guard's league which means their skill-set is highly valued at other positions as we see with Jokic, Horford, Tatum, Green etc. That's the reason why I am so high on Toppin is because his game is modern. He uses his touches in positive ways. He takes high risk and converts at a high rate. He has all of the metrics that adjust perfectly to how the game is played today. With the Hawks, our bigs get the bulk of the touches outside of Trae/Teague. It's best we have a playmaker big man like Boston had with Horford or GS has with Green. His PPP is literally 1.20. He is the prime example of what a modern 4 man is suppose to look like offensively. 

I disagree he won't have the ball like that. Our system is heavy PnR based. bigs get the majority of our touches. 

https://stats.nba.com/players/touches/?Season=2019-20&SeasonType=Regular Season&TeamID=1610612737&sort=TOUCHES&dir=1

 

JC is 13th in the NBA for touches per game: https://stats.nba.com/players/touches/?Season=2019-20&SeasonType=Regular Season&sort=TOUCHES&dir=1&PlayerPosition=F

 

All of our bigs get a lot of touches. Parker was getting 52+ touches per game. 

Is there anyone you're not gonna compare Obi too, lol. We get, you're high on him, others aren't. And that's ok.

Again, I have no issue taking him but please stop talking about him as the next coming of the next great power forward. If he was all that he'd be the consensus #1 pick.

[thecampster]

40 minutes ago, NBASupes said:

What did you see that made you think this can't be improved on? The only issue is the change of the direction and that's only an issue if you are projecting him to be a wing which I know isn't the case. With his first step, he will be fine in the NBA for face ups. 

We can do this for every player in the draft, if you like. Luka had a shitload of questionable areas. Trae had miles of questionable areas. So what are we trying to do here? What's the purpose of your post? Are you saying, we shouldn't draft a soul due to weaknesses. Damn, let's just pass on LeBron James and Michael Jordan because they have flaws. Sorry but I am not understanding the purpose of this post. Please tell me what can't be improved on, especially as a 4. 

I don't know how much more clear I can be when I say "no criticism or praise". 

But since you now asked, there are only 3 weaknesses listed. In some of these videos, I see as many as 8 items listed, so only 3 is a very good sign.

1) Decision making. At the pro level, he will not be expected to be a decision maker most of the time.  The pro game relies much more heavily on Guards and Small Forwards to be decision makers in the offense (the benefit of not playing against the zone).  This "negative" aspect of his game is a very small knock (IMHO).

2) Being stiff - Not much he can do about this and he's only going to get stronger, thicker. This one concerns me a bit if he is expected to be a multi-faceted threat. He'll need to greatly improve his inside game and work with a shooting coach on fluidity (exact opposite issue as what Cam had). This is the greatest concern to me but its very workable in the right system, with the right work. He should never be handling the ball in traffic and should have to snap a wrist rubber band every time he tries to drive at guards.

3) Reluctance to shoot - I didn't see this as a negative at all. If I didn't see this, I'd think he was a right handed Josh Smith clone (think about it, about 70% of his game is Josh Smith). But one of the bigger mistakes players make is forcing things they aren't comfortable doing. I'm okay with this "negative".

[thecampster]

3 minutes ago, JayBirdHawk said:

Is there anyone you're nit gonna compare Obi too, lol. We get, you're high on him, others aren't. And that's ok.

Again, I have no issue taking him but please stop talking about him as the next coming of the next great power forward. If he was all that he'd be the consensus #1 pick.

He could be. he has potential. There is a lot of Stoudemire/Josh Smith in his game. I could see him being a long term starter at the position.

 

I worry about the level of competition he faced. Let's face it, he wasn't being guarded night in, night out by 6'10" leapers. I would have really liked some tournament footage of him playing against a Big 10/ACC school.

Edited August 31, 2020 by thecampster