John Collins - Max kat, 90 million-4yrs kat, or Gallo salary kat

[RandomFan]

16 minutes ago, Watchman said:

It makes no sense to overpay Bogi and Gallo, but try to underpay Collins.

Gallo was on overpay, Bogi wasn't. 

[marco102]

I don't think @NBASupes will like this.  I'd offer John a 5 year $130 million deal with a fifth year player option.  It's more than any other team can off him  and it falls in line at about $26 million per year.  That's a slight over pay, but if you think about it, it's the same AAV of 4 years $104 million which many here consider reasonable.  It locks John in long term without maxing him out and if he continues to improve it'll be a fair deal for both sides.  That's slightly above Johns actual value of about 4 years $90 million of about $3.5 million per year. It'll make both sides happy in my opinion. 

I don't see the Hawks getting anyone better than John. John knows what he needs to work on and he's improved every year that he's been here.  It'll be foolish for his team not to ask for a max deal, like will you go tell your agent not to get you the most money? I believe the Hawks and John will meet somewhere in the middle and I hope to see John's continued improvement.  It'll also be foolish for the Hawks to let him walk without getting anything in return.  What they get in return will not be the same value as John in my opinion. 

Let's run this ish back and get our championship. I don't care about Toni's money. Spend it all Travis. (whispers, spend it all wisely.)

Edited July 6, 2021 by marco102

[RandomFan]

5 years, $100 million. That's my offer. Or Sign and Trade him. For some perspective, Brook Lopez is making $13 million per year. Yeah he's older and took a discount to do a bit of ring chasing, but still. 

Let's talk possible S&T targets if it comes to that. Who ya got?

We'd be looking at possible big swaps. 

Or maybe a backup PG, that could possibly log some minutes alongside Trae as a SG, so either a straight up backup PG or a combo guard. 

Or another wing that would allow Dre to play more PF. 

[JeffS17]

What does this team look like when Hunter is going to command 30 minutes a game?  What do our rotations between John, Gallo, and Hunter look like?  Are we declaring OO a center?  I feel like Schlenk needs these answers before he throws the bag at John because we have a lot of dudes that are going to need minutes at PF.  You can play Hunter at the 3 but then you're clogging minutes for Cam/Heurter.  Having depth at these spots is not a bad thing but eventually someone gets squeezed out and unless you're certain it's not John, the decision still isn't a no brainer.

I won't be shocked if if we consolidate somewhere this offseason, but I really don't envy Schlenks position, tough call.

[JeffS17]

31 minutes ago, RandomFan said:

5 years, $100 million. That's my offer. Or Sign and Trade him. For some perspective, Brook Lopez is making $13 million per year. Yeah he's older and took a discount to do a bit of ring chasing, but still. 

Let's talk possible S&T targets if it comes to that. Who ya got?

We'd be looking at possible big swaps. 

Or maybe a backup PG, that could possibly log some minutes alongside Trae as a SG, so either a straight up backup PG or a combo guard. 

Or another wing that would allow Dre to play more PF. 

This feels like a real lowball and probably insulting to Collins and his skillset.  I don't think he entertains $20M per year on that long of a deal and I'm certain he finds more in FA, so S&T isn't an option at this low.  I don't think we need another wing at this point, assuming we keep Heurter, backup true PG feels like the most immediate need.  I wonder if we throw anything at McConnell

[RedDawg#8]

1 hour ago, macdaddy said:

done

That's likely where it lands. 104 is my guess to be exact.

[AHF]

1 hour ago, marco102 said:

I don't think @NBASupes will like this.  I'd offer John a 5 year $130 million deal with a fifth year player option.  It's more than any other team can off him  and it falls in line at about $26 million per year.  That's a slight over pay, but if you think about it, it's the same AAV of 4 years $104 million which many here consider reasonable.  It locks John in long term without maxing him out and if he continues to improve it'll be a fair deal for both sides.  That's slightly above Johns actual value of about 4 years $90 million of about $3.5 million per year. It'll make both sides happy in my opinion. 

I don't see the Hawks getting anyone better than John. John knows what he needs to work on and he's improved every year that he's been here.  It'll be foolish for his team not to ask for a max deal, like will you go tell your agent not to get you the most money? I believe the Hawks and John will meet somewhere in the middle and I hope to see John's continued improvement.  It'll also be foolish for the Hawks to let him walk without getting anything in return.  What they get in return will not be the same value as John in my opinion. 

Let's run this ish back and get our championship. I don't care about Toni's money. Spend it all Travis. (whispers, spend it all wisely.)

What is the point of giving him a 5th year player option?  If you are going to give him a big splashy number like $130M, then you have to make that last year a team option, don't you?  A 5th year player option just gives us all same security as a 4 year, $104M deal where he opts out and becomes an UFA if he turns out to be worth more (or just wants to move) but with the risk that he turns out to be an overpay and we are stuck for an unnecessary 5th year as he exercises the option to stay overpaid.

[JeffS17]

1 minute ago, AHF said:

What is the point of giving him a 5th year player option?  If you are going to give him a big splashy number like $130M, then you have to make that last year a team option, don't you?  A 5th year player option just gives us all same security as a 4 year, $104M deal but with the risk that he turns out to be an overpay and we are stuck for an unnecessary 5th year as he exercises the option to stay overpaid.

Yeah, player option should only be there if we feel like the first 4 years will turn out to be a bit of an underpay, if anything.  But Collins camp isn't going to agree to anything we feel is an underpay so I can't imagine a player option in his second contract -- only really see that for superstar level guys that dictate where they play.

[bird_dirt]

JC has improved every single year, improving in ways that help the team win, not just improve his stats. He's constantly learning, growing, developing his game. 

He's only 23, so is still 4 or 5 years from his prime. 

This is the time you overpay on potential growth over the course of a contact's term recognizing the work that's been put in over the past 4 years. After this contract is when when you start paying present day value, then the following is when you pay based on expected declines in performance. 

I understand wanting to be frugal, but lowballing based on his youthful experience will bite you in the ass. He will get better, I am sure of it. And I'd rather see him do that for us rather than someone else while we have a lesser replacement just because they are cheaper.

[AHF]

6 minutes ago, bird_dirt said:

JC has improved every single year, improving in ways that help the team win, not just improve his stats. He's constantly learning, growing, developing his game. 

He's only 23, so is still 4 or 5 years from his prime. 

This is the time you overpay on potential growth over the course of a contact's term recognizing the work that's been put in over the past 4 years. After this contract is when when you start paying present day value, then the following is when you pay based on expected declines in performance. 

I understand wanting to be frugal, but lowballing based on his youthful experience will bite you in the ass. He will get better, I am sure of it. And I'd rather see him do that for us rather than someone else while we have a lesser replacement just because they are cheaper.

I don't feel a need to overpay on our offer to him as long as we are prepared to match.  That is the key in my mind and I'm willing to live with an overpay as I feel the potential to overpay is fairly limited.

[JeffS17]

6 minutes ago, AHF said:

I don't feel a need to overpay on our offer to him as long as we are prepared to match.  That is the key in my mind and I'm willing to live with an overpay as I feel the potential to overpay is fairly limited.

Yeah I agree with this sentiment, but I also think Ressler has to be willing to pay both Hunter and/or Cam when their time comes.  If he's not prepared to do that, you have to make a decision on John.  Paying John is a good sign to me that Ressler is not talking out of his a** when he says he will go into the luxury.

[JayBirdHawk]

2 hours ago, AHF said:

So if we end up passing on RJ Hampton for the privilege of paying JC for two years and then giving him away to another team, I'm perfectly fine with that for the possibility that he is important to us achieving greatness in the next few years and the chance that he could continue to improve and end up actually being worth the price of that next deal.  I just don't see us having a path to getting good replacement value for him either with the assets we'd get back in a trade or with what we could get on the FA market with our limited cap space.

Very good analogy with the Brogdan SnT.  The bolded is the sticking point.

1 hour ago, RandomFan said:

5 years, $100 million. That's my offer. Or Sign and Trade him. For some perspective, Brook Lopez is making $13 million per year. Yeah he's older and took a discount to do a bit of ring chasing, but still. 

Let's talk possible S&T targets if it comes to that. Who ya got?

We'd be looking at possible big swaps. 

Or maybe a backup PG, that could possibly log some minutes alongside Trae as a SG, so either a straight up backup PG or a combo guard. 

Or another wing that would allow Dre to play more PF. 

We will not get back anything of real value in a SnT   

See the Pacers Brogdan deal that's more in line with what we will get - a TPE (or bad contract) and a late 1st and 2nds.

Look at the Bogi deal - we offered them Snell and the OKC 2022 1st (lottery protected then 2 2nds).

[RedDawg#8]

13 minutes ago, JayBirdHawk said:

Very good analogy with the Brogdan SnT.  The bolded is the sticking point.

We will not get back anything of real value in a SnT   

See the Pacers Brogdan deal that's more in line with what we will get - a TPE (or bad contract) and a late 1st and 2nds.

Look at the Bogi deal - we offered them Snell and the OKC 2022 1st (lottery protected then 2 2nds).

Or Speaking of Brogdan...

You could make the mistake of low balling him the way the Bucks did and end up paying MAJOR assets only a year later to replace him with  a guy who is marginally better and costs a lot more.

I repeat.

Bucks lose Brogdan who signed for 4yr/85mil, and got back what you mentioned.

Then, end up trading George Hill, Eric Bledsoe, 3x 1sts, 2x 1st pick swaps, all for Jrue Holiday. Who they are now committing to pay 4yrs/134mil.

They are in the Finals so I guess it worked out, but wouldn't it have just been easier to keep Brogdan outright and if you still wanted to trade him later for Jrue, not have to attach so many assets to get him?

In our situation, any contract for JC less than 30 mil per will be good value in 2 years when the cap continues to rise. 

If we lose him now with no replacement, we are going to end up having to trade one or more of the other core guys later just to find a PF of similar profile/production. 

People think that a big contract will sink us, as if JC is old and can no longer perform at a high level.

 

 

 

 

[JayBirdHawk]

1 hour ago, JeffS17 said:

What does this team look like when Hunter is going to command 30 minutes a game?  What do our rotations between John, Gallo, and Hunter look like? 

What were the minutes in Hunter's 1st 19 games - about 30 minutes per game as the starting SF - that does not change.

Gallo's role does not change - he's the backup PF, that is what Schlenk signed him for last season and Gallo signed on for.  His minutes will be dependent on how hot he is shooting the ball or if JC gets in foul trouble.

[JeffS17]

17 minutes ago, JayBirdHawk said:

What were the minutes in Hunter's 1st 19 games - about 30 minutes per game as the starting SF - that does not change.

Gallo's role does not change - he's the backup PF, that is what Schlenk signed him for last season and Gallo signed on for.  His minutes will be dependent on how hot he is shooting the ball or if JC gets in foul trouble.

If we want to compete in the playoffs, we have to have a healthy roster.  For pretty much the entire 2020 season, we had guys hurt and unable to play off and on.  What does our rotation look like in a tight playoff series, games 5-7?  Who is getting the minutes?  We have a lot of guys that can play multiple positions but eventually someone gets squeezed out.  What would an elimination game look like where you are going to play the best lineup for close to 40 minutes?  That's what I'm trying to figure out.

• Trae - 40
• Collins - 40
• Hunter -38
• Capela - 35
• Bogi - 35
• Cam - 30
• Heurter - 22

Something like this looks reasonable and then you realize Gallo isn't in the mix, OO has no minutes here, and neither does a backup PG...  you can work them in but ultimately you have too many mouths to feed.  I won't be shocked if we consolidate somehow this offseason.

[JayBirdHawk]

1 minute ago, JeffS17 said:

If we want to compete in the playoffs, we have to have a healthy roster.  For pretty much the entire 2020 season, we had guys hurt and unable to play off and on.  What does our rotation look like in a tight playoff series, games 5-7?  Who is getting the minutes?  We have a lot of guys that can play multiple positions but eventually someone gets squeezed out.  What would an elimination game look like where you are going to play the best lineup for close to 40 minutes?  That's what I'm trying to figure out.

• Trae - 40
• Collins - 40
• Hunter -38
• Capela - 35
• Bogi - 35
• Cam - 30
• Heurter - 22

Something like this looks reasonable and then you realize Gallo isn't in the mix, OO has no minutes here, and neither does a backup PG...  you can work them in but ultimately you have too many mouths to feed.  I won't be shocked if we consolidate somehow this offseason.

Foul trouble, how well a guy is playing, do we need offense or defense - there is so much that goes into it game by game, minute by minute.  There is no locking in a minute count.

The premise is your starters get the bulk of the minutes, they rest fit in.

[JayBirdHawk]

 

 

[RandomFan]

2 hours ago, JeffS17 said:

Are we declaring OO a center?  I feel like Schlenk needs these answers before he throws the bag at John because we have a lot of dudes that are going to need minutes at PF.  

I won't be shocked if if we consolidate somewhere this offseason, but I really don't envy Schlenks position, tough call.

Yes, OO is a center and has been a center since he joined us. This has never been a question. Consolidation is definitely an option, and likely one we have to take down the road, but it might be 1 year too early. It really depends if Travis can A) get a good deal centered around trading JC, and B) doesn't feel like JC is in the teams long term plans.  

2 hours ago, JeffS17 said:

This feels like a real lowball and probably insulting to Collins and his skillset.  I don't think he entertains $20M per year on that long of a deal and I'm certain he finds more in FA, so S&T isn't an option at this low.  I don't think we need another wing at this point, assuming we keep Heurter, backup true PG feels like the most immediate need.  I wonder if we throw anything at McConnell

If JC or anyone considers $20m per year a lowball offer for JC then I'm sorry, but I think it's already a bit of an overpay for what he's worth. Especially based on the chatter Supes reported earlier today that he is hearing. For those that didn't see it, JC's perceived value has gone down around the league since that 4 yr $90m offer. 

1 hour ago, JayBirdHawk said:

Very good analogy with the Brogdan SnT.  The bolded is the sticking point.

We will not get back anything of real value in a SnT   

See the Pacers Brogdan deal that's more in line with what we will get - a TPE (or bad contract) and a late 1st and 2nds.

Look at the Bogi deal - we offered them Snell and the OKC 2022 1st (lottery protected then 2 2nds).

Meh. Like I said above it really depends if Travis thinks JC and his desired salary are in the team's long term plans or not. If not, then getting what you can for him is the best option, no matter how underwhelming. I do think the best option is to match his best offer and run it back one more year just to see how far we can get. We can always trade him in the next offseason if it comes down to needing to move on from him. But if Travis knows JC isn't a long term Hawk and he can get a decent enough return now, I'm not opposed to that at all. 

[JayBirdHawk]

5 minutes ago, RandomFan said:

Yes, OO is a center and has been a center since he joined us. This has never been a question

I'm sure I read (per Travis Schlenk) that the plan is to develop his offensive game eventually at PF or did I dream that?  This was around the draft or during training camp

@thecampster @NBASupes

[JayBirdHawk]

6 minutes ago, RandomFan said:

Meh. Like I said above it really depends if Travis thinks JC and his desired salary are in the team's long term plans or not. If not, then getting what you can for him is the best option, no matter how underwhelming. I do think the best option is to match his best offer and run it back one more year just to see how far we can get. We can always trade him in the next offseason if it comes down to needing to move on from him. But if Travis knows JC isn't a long term Hawk and he can get a decent enough return now, I'm not opposed to that at all. 

Everything depends on what the Hawks maximum value is.

What do you determine a 'decent enough return' to be?