Hawks Salary Cap Discussions

[AHF]

When I saw this post it occurred to me that between a half dozen of our posters, we learn interesting things about our players contracts, free agent status, the team's resources, and flexibility, etc. and that these posts could be gathered under a consolidated thread for reference.  So I threw this together and am kick starting it with this excellent post from @thecampster found here 

People have asked me privately how I figure the cap pre season, make my predictions, negate rumors, etc. So I figured I'd do this before silly season begins as a Squawk primer. Had a hard time figuring out where to stick this article. This seemed as good a place as any. Campster brain dump incoming in 3, 2, 1.....

 

https://www.hoopsrumors.com/2020/12/nba-maximum-salary-projections-for-202122.html

 

In this article, you'll find this chart: 

Which is the max contract for a player signing with his own team.

Then you'll see this similar chart:

Which is the max contract for a player signing with another team.

These are estimates based on a $112 million dollar cap.  There is confusion out there when discussing what a John Collins contract would look like. Use these 6 year or less columns as a starting point.  Assume that whatever Collins gets, that's about what a healthy Hunter would command in 2 years (barring an increase/decrease in production).

 

Current state of the Hawks, 5 rookie contracts edition.

Collins RFA

Trae, Huerter - 4 year extension eligible today. RFA at the end of 2021/22 season.

Hunter, Reddish - 4 year extension eligible next year. RFA at the end of 2022/23 season.

 

Hawks other committed salaries through 2022. (RFA Trae, Huerter)

$71.67 million (Gallinari, Bogdanovic, Capela, Okongwu, Bruno, 1st round pick, 6 min roster charges).

Hawks other committed salaries through 2023 (RFA Reddish/Hunter)

$61.4 million (BB, Cap, OO, 1st (2021), 2 x 1sts (2022), $5 mil guaranteed Gallo, 5 min roster charges).

Hawks other 2024 - Capela and Gallo's 5 million fall off. 1 new draft pick).

Okay so this is how I see it when looking at it. I don't assume any other salaries because people can be waived/traded signed to 1 year deals. Assuming an average yearly salary for all 5 of our main rookie salaries right now of $20 mil (Trae more, Huerter less but 20 mil each average).  That's $100 million that will need to be fit under the LT by end of summer 2023. 5 of the minimum roster charges will fall off and into that $100 million.

There are 3 glaring problems here:

1 Bogie's cap number of $18 MIL is reasonable but lasts throughout this cycle. You are going to have to choose between him and 1 of Huerter/Reddish/Hunter to make this all work (eventually).

2. That non-guaranteed year with a $5 million cap hit for Gallo is going to be a problem. It comes in Trae/Huerter's RFA season. Keeping him costs $21 million against the cap. Waiving him costs $5 million in the Trae/Huerter RFA contract year. Gallo is a luxury we can afford this year, but not next. I expect the Hawks to move him (intuition, deduction and rumor) while they can get back value. He is the biggest cap red flag on the team right now.

3. Capela's 2 remaining years are at a very reasonable salary. They could easily keep or  trade him. Looking at our cap structure, he was obviously valued because of his salary structure remaining. Moving him in a package deal for a legit all-star seems to be the best bet if you can sign one of the other value centers.

Other considerations -

Snell is gone unless he comes back at a big discount.

Dunn's salary is a player option. We have no input. Given he's been mostly unplayable for 17 months, expect him to opt in and work his tale off on shooting to earn his next deal. This season is make or break for Dunn. Also, you can't trade Dunn until he opts in making any deal for him unlikely. Expect him to be a Hawk next season (gut feeling and experience).

Lou is only back on a 2 years or less deal at a big discount.

I do not expect Goodwin back. He was LP's pet project.

I expect Mays back. A strong showing in summer league could cement his roster spot and even rotation minutes.

I don't know about Knight. He played awful down the stretch when given time.

On 7/8/2021 at 12:57 PM, thecampster said:

People have asked me privately how I figure the cap pre season, make my predictions, negate rumors, etc. So I figured I'd do this before silly season begins as a Squawk primer. Had a hard time figuring out where to stick this article. This seemed as good a place as any. Campster brain dump incoming in 3, 2, 1.....

https://www.hoopsrumors.com/2020/12/nba-maximum-salary-projections-for-202122.html

 

In this article, you'll find this chart: 

Which is the max contract for a player signing with his own team.

Then you'll see this similar chart:

Which is the max contract for a player signing with another team.

These are estimates based on a $112 million dollar cap.  There is confusion out there when discussing what a John Collins contract would look like. Use these 6 year or less columns as a starting point.  Assume that whatever Collins gets, that's about what a healthy Hunter would command in 2 years (barring an increase/decrease in production).

 

Current state of the Hawks, 5 rookie contracts edition.

Collins RFA

Trae, Huerter - 4 year extension eligible today. RFA at the end of 2021/22 season.

Hunter, Reddish - 4 year extension eligible next year. RFA at the end of 2022/23 season.

 

Hawks other committed salaries through 2022. (RFA Trae, Huerter)

$71.67 million (Gallinari, Bogdanovic, Capela, Okongwu, Bruno, 1st round pick, 6 min roster charges).

Hawks other committed salaries through 2023 (RFA Reddish/Hunter)

$61.4 million (BB, Cap, OO, 1st (2021), 2 x 1sts (2022), $5 mil guaranteed Gallo, 5 min roster charges).

Hawks other 2024 - Capela and Gallo's 5 million fall off. 1 new draft pick).

Okay so this is how I see it when looking at it. I don't assume any other salaries because people can be waived/traded signed to 1 year deals. Assuming an average yearly salary for all 5 of our main rookie salaries right now of $20 mil (Trae more, Huerter less but 20 mil each average).  That's $100 million that will need to be fit under the LT by end of summer 2023. 5 of the minimum roster charges will fall off and into that $100 million.

There are 3 glaring problems here:

1 Bogie's cap number of $18 MIL is reasonable but lasts throughout this cycle. You are going to have to choose between him and 1 of Huerter/Reddish/Hunter to make this all work (eventually).

2. That non-guaranteed year with a $5 million cap hit for Gallo is going to be a problem. It comes in Trae/Huerter's RFA season. Keeping him costs $21 million against the cap. Waiving him costs $5 million in the Trae/Huerter RFA contract year. Gallo is a luxury we can afford this year, but not next. I expect the Hawks to move him (intuition, deduction and rumor) while they can get back value. He is the biggest cap red flag on the team right now.

3. Capela's 2 remaining years are at a very reasonable salary. They could easily keep or  trade him. Looking at our cap structure, he was obviously valued because of his salary structure remaining. Moving him in a package deal for a legit all-star seems to be the best bet if you can sign one of the other value centers.

Other considerations -

Snell is gone unless he comes back at a big discount.

Dunn's salary is a player option. We have no input. Given he's been mostly unplayable for 17 months, expect him to opt in and work his tale off on shooting to earn his next deal. This season is make or break for Dunn. Also, you can't trade Dunn until he opts in making any deal for him unlikely. Expect him to be a Hawk next season (gut feeling and experience).

Lou is only back on a 2 years or less deal at a big discount.

I do not expect Goodwin back. He was LP's pet project.

I expect Mays back. A strong showing in summer league could cement his roster spot and even rotation minutes.

I don't know about Knight. He played awful down the stretch when given time.

 

 

 

[AHF]

From @sturt

To no one in particular...

It would be valuable for Hawks fans to spend a half hour plugging into an Excel spreadsheet a projected salary chart for 21-22 and for 22-23... that would be enough to provide a truer, more precise picture of how this thing would appear to unfold.

This will help. I've taken the time to look up what each of our current players numbers are for those seasons. Where there are players I've envisioned being added, just substitute your own if you don't like mine.

But do that, and this will all be a whole lot less frustrating because you will have examined it for yourself with actual numbers rather than conjecture based on broad statements.

On 7/11/2021 at 1:12 AM, sturt said:

To no one in particular...

It would be valuable for Hawks fans to spend a half hour plugging into an Excel spreadsheet a projected salary chart for 21-22 and for 22-23... that would be enough to provide a truer, more precise picture of how this thing would appear to unfold.

This will help. I've taken the time to look up what each of our current players numbers are for those seasons. Where there are players I've envisioned being added, just substitute your own if you don't like mine.

But do that, and this will all be a whole lot less frustrating because you will have examined it for yourself with actual numbers rather than conjecture based on broad statements.

 

 

 

 

[Guest]

So ...  can we trade Kris Dunn and Bruno for AD and LeBron?  

[thecampster]

Probably a better use of resources then having to search for posts through threads to rebutt something someone says.

Just now, LongTimeFan said:

So ...  can we trade Kris Dunn and Bruno for AD and LeBron?  

LOL! You see that's how the nonsense starts. Some crayon chewer is gonna think you're serious.

[sturt]

7 minutes ago, thecampster said:

Some crayon chewer

Hope you haven't copyrighted that one. B/c I'm borrowing that. I rarely do direct personal insults of any kind ever. But direct insults of large swaths of people sometime make sense, and I know one swath that leaps to mind for which this one will be well-placed.

 

[AHF]

Can't find anything great for crayon chewing but the exchange brought this image to mind for me:

[Spud2nique]

18 minutes ago, thecampster said:

Some crayon chewer

I like sienna, just tastes better!  

10 minutes ago, sturt said:

and I know one swath that leaps to mind for which this one will be well-placed.

Don’t use it on kg, not cool.

[JayBirdHawk]

1 hour ago, thecampster said:

Probably a better use of resources then having to search for posts through threads to rebutt something someone says.

LOL! You see that's how the nonsense starts. Some crayon chewer is gonna think you're serious.

that's a first. Love it.

[thecampster]

1 hour ago, sturt said:

Hope you haven't copyrighted that one. B/c I'm borrowing that. I rarely do direct personal insults of any kind ever. But direct insults of large swaths of people sometime make sense, and I know one swath that leaps to mind for which this one will be well-placed.

 

That is a Camp original (though I cannot guarantee its never been said before) and the description of choice for those my Sunday School teachers preferred I didn't use the more appropriate term on.

And quit helping me to destroy the original intent of this thread. AHF worked very hard on the concept and is very proud of the title, format....he should get random stickers with stars on them.  

Edited July 12, 2021 by thecampster

[thecampster]

Okay that didn't take long

 

 

Seems I can't claim it after all.

[JayBirdHawk]

36 minutes ago, thecampster said:

Okay that didn't take long

 

 

Seems I can't claim it after all.

We'll let you claim it here.

[AHF]

1 hour ago, sturt said:

So happy for that link. Thank you @niremetal... I'd not seen the spotrac "manage team" tool yet, and I'm just guessing since it's a beta release, not many others have either.

It's accurate, but it's a little misleading if you just look at the numbers at face value without digging in.

Here's what I find... (apologies to those of you squinting to see on a phone... you really need an actual computer to view, and even then, you'll want to click on the image to enlarge)

 

 

 

1 hour ago, sturt said:

So happy for that link. Thank you @niremetal... I'd not seen the spotrac "manage team" tool yet, and I'm just guessing since it's a beta release, not many others have either.

It's accurate, but it's a little misleading if you just look at the numbers at face value without digging in.

Here's what I find... (apologies to those of you squinting to see on a phone... you really need an actual computer to view, and even then, you'll want to click on the image to enlarge)

 

 

 

[marco102]

Per the Athletic,  https://theathletic.com/2718641/2021/07/20/sports-on-tv-a-rare-saturday-nba-finals-game-brings-a-ratings-anomaly/

Quote

The NBA’s current $24 billion set of U.S. TV deals will likely double or triple in the next round of talks with broadcasters.

A doubling or tripling of this deal will add a substantial amount to the salary cap and the Hawks may be able to sign all their core comfortably in the future. 

[ATLHawks3]

15 minutes ago, marco102 said:

Per the Athletic,  https://theathletic.com/2718641/2021/07/20/sports-on-tv-a-rare-saturday-nba-finals-game-brings-a-ratings-anomaly/

A doubling or tripling of this deal will add a substantial amount to the salary cap and the Hawks may be able to sign all their core comfortably in the future. 

How soon will they be able to renegotiate the TV Deals?

[sturt]

[marco102]

6 minutes ago, ATLHawks3 said:

How soon will they be able to renegotiate the TV Deals?

Great question.  

They signed the new TV deal in 2016-2017 season and it expires in 9 years. 

So the ninth year is the 2024 - 2025 season.  

2023 - 2024 is probably when Dre and Cam's new deals will kick in. 

So they may only be in the luxury tax for a couple of seasons. It'll be interesting. 

[sturt]

One would naturally wonder...

If we're talking a tripling of the income, why would I sign a 5 year deal if I'm John Collins?

Or, a 4 year deal if I'm Trae Young (or Kevin Huerter)?

Or, a 3 year deal if I'm Dre or Cam?

Or a 2 year deal if I'm Big OO?

Won't everyone who is at all bullish on his future want a contract that begins with the first dam-burst year, 2025-26?

 

[bird_dirt]

32 minutes ago, marco102 said:

Great question.  

They signed the new TV deal in 2016-2017 season and it expires in 9 years. 

So the ninth year is the 2024 - 2025 season.  

2023 - 2024 is probably when Dre and Cam's new deals will kick in. 

So they may only be in the luxury tax for a couple of seasons. It'll be interesting. 

Everybody's price gonna jump. Like Bazemore salary ridiculousness. 

I wonder if players will opt for shorter term contracts so they can be free agents when the new deal drops and get that bag.

That would be something to push the Hawks to lock up as many (especially Trae) sooner so their deals going past then will be more reasonable. 

[marco102]

9 minutes ago, sturt said:

One would naturally wonder...

If we're talking a tripling of the income, why would I sign a 5 year deal if I'm John Collins?

Or, a 4 year deal if I'm Trae Young (or Kevin Huerter)?

Or, a 3 year deal if I'm Dre or Cam?

Or a 2 year deal if I'm Big OO?

Won't everyone who is at all bullish on his future want a contract that begins with the first dam-burst year, 2025-26?

 

I guess the thing is you can have an opt out that year. However, if you wait until the contract naturally expires, you'll receive even more money because the salary cap will increase from the initial year.

[JayBirdHawk]

1 hour ago, marco102 said:

Per the Athletic,  https://theathletic.com/2718641/2021/07/20/sports-on-tv-a-rare-saturday-nba-finals-game-brings-a-ratings-anomaly/

A doubling or tripling of this deal will add a substantial amount to the salary cap and the Hawks may be able to sign all their core comfortably in the future. 

I mentioned the cap increase possibility if revenues are better than expected over the next 2 years due to COVID losses last and this season. 

I think if the TV deal is negotiated and extended prior, the salary cap prior to the date may increase.