Everybody, Please, Like Kris

[lethalweapon3]

With a $5 million-and-change decision looming, it sounds pretty straightforward that Kris Dunn will pick up his player option and lock himself down for at least a little longer on the Atlanta Hawks. He may be inclined to show Atlanta that he’s much more than his nine-game, 78-minute, abbreviated spell revealed. But there’s little reason why he should feel obligated to demonstrate that here.

I aim to put together some arguments as to why “KD” ought to Take the Nestea Plunge and splash into unrestricted free agency. Y’know, just in case his agent is out there doing some casual reading.

My best argument is he has an all-new, freshly minted robo-knee with which he can run the court. And no surgery will be necessary to adjust the guard’s ample 6-foot-9 wingspan.

Under the auspices of a Bulls coaching and management regime that, today, is nowhere to be found, Dunn was crowded out of playing time at the outset of the 2019-20 season, in favor of Tomas Satoransky, then-rookie Coby White and Ryan Arcidiacono. He entered back into Chicago’s starting lineup two months into that season, and the Bulls went from 6-13 with him as a reserve (six of 13 losses by double-digits) to 13-18 with him as a starter (eight of 18 losses by double-digits).

That was a marginal improvement, the suckitude more a factor of Chicago having to suddenly rely on the likes of Luke Kornet and Cristiano Felicio upfront due to frontcourt injuries, rather than Dunn’s reintroduction to the top line. Unfortunately, teammate Thaddeus Young fell on the front of Dunn’s knee in a January 31 game while taking a charge, and the guard’s season was over promptly. The Bulls’ subsequent 3-12 slide was stopped only by the pandemic pause.

Still, in that half-season, his 2.0 steals per game finished behind only Brickhouse Ben Simmons in the league, earning him Honorable Mention for at least a couple experts’ All-Defensive honors at the NBA season’s extended end.

Post-recuperation this season, Dunn never got the time to round out his game with the Hawks, or to flesh out a useful role. But if the limited appearances in the May regular season games (4.8 rebounds, 1.6 steals, 1.6 blocks per-36) and postseason (5.5 rebounds, 2.2 steals, 2.2 blocks per-36) are an indication, Kris can re-assert himself as a premier defensive guard in The Association.

In 2019-20, Dunn’s Defensive Box Plus/Minus finished behind only Giannis and well ahead of notables AD, Pat Bev, Kawhi and Len, while he finished in a virtual tie with Shoverley at the top of the Defensive Real Plus/Minus leaderboard for point guards. This season, he never got the opportunity here to show his efforts, while with Chicago, to enhance his efficiency at the problematic opposite end.

Dunn’s three-point accuracy in his last season with the Bulls regressed to 25.9 3FG%, after topping out at a more respectable 35.4 percent the season prior. He was lofting more last-ditch threes when Jim Boylen’s offensive halfcourt plans broke down, which was often. Dunn’s free throw marksmanship also ebbed. Yet his true shooting percentage leaped above 50 percent for the first time in his career anyway.

That was because he cut a good deal of fat, from his poor mid-range shooting, out of his diet, and he made considerable efforts to, first, get to the rim (career-best 39.8 percent of shots within 3 feet in 2019-20) and, then, to convert (career-best 64.7 2FG% at that range).

Meanwhile, despite ceding his role as a primary playmaker, Dunn continued becoming more careful with the Bulls’ possessions. His 15.7 TO% (bball-ref recipe) in 2019-20 were mild improvements over his values from the two high-usage seasons before, and a marked improvement over his rookie season as a lottery intern with Ricky Rubio’s Timberwolves.

I cast no illusions that Kris would be in high demand as an unrestricted free agent. However, the incoming crop of free agent backup guards that can feasibly, if not capably, guard 1’s and 2’s (Dennis? Dinwiddie? Caruso? TJ Mac? Patty??? Nunn? Dipo?) will individually command higher salaries, making offers to Dunn a low-risk, modest-reward option for GMs to consider.

While teams with ample cap room will chase after the aforementioned subset, other clubs may seek to bolster their defensive and veteran options with a player like Dunn, who is only 27 and will have been essentially preserved for up to 21 months by tipoff of 2021-22, save for those garbage-time and wait-why-is-he-playing minutes under coach Nate McMillan’s direction at the close of this season. Both in his final half-season in Chicago and in his short run in Atlanta, Dunn has left hints, with respect to his defensive ceiling and his offensive floor, that in an expanded bench role he will be able to pick up where he left off.

Coming off a mostly unimpressive return to action, Kris is within his right to secure his bag for next season. But he then leaves the Hawks in charge of where he might land next, presumably as part of a trade package to a team, maybe one that could use his services and develop him further, or maybe one that intends to just stash him for emergencies until next season’s salary comes off the books. If he can be confident in his overall value, he could secure a multi-year deal that offers him longer-term security and some agency, if you will, as to where he’s headed and how he’ll grow and contribute.

For most observers, the choice for Kris to opt-in seems pretty obvious, on its face. Here’s hoping that it’s not necessarily a Dunn deal.

 

~lw3

[warcore]

I think he bounces back and has a great season as our primary backup next year. He just seems like an ideal backup to Trae given his potential for situational substitutions.... given those situations are exactly when we don't want Trae on the court. 

Would have liked to have seen it this past year but hoping we get to see the opportunity this year. 

[Sothron]

Personally after he showed so little this season and coming off two surgeries in one season he would be insane to not pick up his player option. If nothing else he would be our BU PG by default.

[kg01]

33 minutes ago, warcore said:

I think he bounces back and has a great season as our primary backup next year. He just seems like an ideal backup to Trae given his potential for situational substitutions.... given those situations are exactly when we don't want Trae on the court. 

Would have liked to have seen it this past year but hoping we get to see the opportunity this year. 

I think we all grade him too harshly after an injury-plagued year and probably coming back before he was ready.  Let the dude get his sea legs back under him.

[bleachkit]

There is no reason for him not to pick up his option. No one is offering him a multi year deal. And 5 million is damn good money for a one year prove it deal. Usually those deals are around 2 million or so, like the what Derrick Rose was getting. I expect him to be a Hawk. The only way he might opt out is the Hawks tell him, "hey you have the right to opt in, but we will be signing/drafting a guard and you probably won't be getting minutes unless someone gets hurt." Then he opts for a team that offers him less money but more playing time. Still though, if it's about money he will opt in. 

[bleachkit]

14 minutes ago, kg01 said:

I think we all grade him too harshly after an injury-plagued year and probably coming back before he was ready.  Let the dude get his sea legs back under him.

Paying a guy 5 million a year to get his sea legs. Great value there. Or we could of had TJ McConnell at 4 million a year and gotten actually production. Schlenk has done an excellent job overall but he's bungled the back up point guard spot. Thank God Clippers bailed us out of the awful Rondo signing. 

[georgia]

Agreed.   Lou wasn’t great here his first time around after his knee injury 

[Atlantaholic]

1 minute ago, bleachkit said:

Paying a guy 5 million a year to get his sea legs. Great value there. Or we could of had TJ McConnell at 4 million a year and gotten actually production. Schlenk has done an excellent job overall but he's bungled the back up point guard spot. Thank God Clippers bailed us out of the awful Rondo signing. 

obviously we didn't think he would be out the whole year last year. 

[sturt]

1 hour ago, lethalweapon3 said:

Here’s hoping that it’s not necessarily a Dunn deal.

[kg01]

10 minutes ago, bleachkit said:

Paying a guy 5 million a year to get his sea legs. Great value there. Or we could of had TJ McConnell at 4 million a year and gotten actually production. Schlenk has done an excellent job overall but he's bungled the back up point guard spot. Thank God Clippers bailed us out of the awful Rondo signing. 

Did we pay him that money to "get his sea legs" or did we pay him to play but, unfortunately and unpredictably, he got hurt.

Don't be like that.

Plus you know good and well Dallas is gonna move heaven and earth to snap up McConnell this offseason.

[Gray Mule]

Old saw:  "A bird in hand is worth more than two in the bush."

He's a Hawk.  No reason he will not be a Hawk this upcoming season.  He's an older player.  Really?  Nope.  He's still a ways to get to 30 years of age.  Hopefully, his injured past is just that, in the past.  I continue to read that his shooting is terrible.  Perhaps that part of his game is fixable.  

Someone saw something good.  That's why he became a Hawk.  We have had only a brief glance of this Hawk player.  If he was worth the gamble when we signed him, wouldn't he be more so now that he's well?

We've never really watched him as a Hawk when he was in 100% game shape.  Hopefully, right now, he's working on his shot.  We have a sneaking suspicion that Cam has overcome his shooting problem.  No reason to believe that Dunn can't do the same.  If so, he's a real keeper.

[sturt]

Here's the thing.

You know he's capable of shooting 35% from the arc. He did that in 18-19.

You know he's capable of shooting 53% inside the arc. He did that in 19-20.

You know he's capable of dishing out 6 assists per game. He did that in 18-19 and the year before that. And he's typically been a 2.0-2.5 assist-to-turnover ratio guy, to boot.

And you know everything else he does on the other end of the floor has been deemed elite by many.

 

Do you trust him to finally have that season where he puts it all together, in what many if not most believe will be our both our first shot in forever and likely best shot (in view of the payroll) to earn our first ATL title?

It's not inconceivable. It's plausible. And if he did that... and stayed healthy... dang... at a cost of a mere $5m, allowing Schlenk to have acquired another asset?

Title here we come.

 

Do you, though?

Trust it all would come together, and he'd be healthy?

I wish I could say "yes."

 

[Spud2nique]

@lethalweapon3 is great at persuading me to sway my opinion sometimes and look at all things, then Gramps @Gray Mulecomes in with grass is greener bird in hand being worth more and @kg01 insists we give the guy a boo boo pass (cuz he’s prolly learned from Bogi to give it time).. @Sothron and his co worker agree on Dunn.

Who am I to disagree..I traveled the world and the… I digress..

COME GIVE US A HUG DUNN!  

[Sothron]

1 minute ago, Spud2nique said:

@lethalweapon3 is great at persuading me to sway my opinion sometimes and look at all things, then Gramps @Gray Mulecomes in with grass is greener bird in hand being worth more and @kg01 insists we give the guy a boo boo pass (cuz he’s prolly learned from Bogi to give it time).. @Sothron and his co worker agree on Dunn.

Who am I to disagree..I traveled the world and the… I digress..

COME GIVE US A HUG DUNN!  

I know this. When Dunn is healthy he is the best on ball defensive point guard in the entire NBA. Period. Some players love to play defense. Dunn is one of those. He is in many ways ideal for backing up Trae simply due to that reason. He has such a massive wing span that he can cover 1-3 actually. 

I don't hold this past season against him. He was basically out the entire season. He has the offseason plus training camp and pre season to get back into shape. He would be insane to not to pick up his option.  So if nothing else this gives us a veteran BU PG that plays elite on ball defense. He doesn't care about getting his shots either so he could easily lead the bench mob with Cam/Bogi/Kevin/Gallo/OO plus our rookie this year. 

I think we are lucky tbh to have this guy basically in pocket. If we find someone better, great. If we don't then a determined Dunn to get a big deal from someone else is going to play ball's out next season for us. I call that a win/win.

[Spud2nique]

1 minute ago, Sothron said:

I know this. When Dunn is healthy he is the best on ball defensive point guard in the entire NBA. Period. Some players love to play defense. Dunn is one of those. He is in many ways ideal for backing up Trae simply due to that reason. He has such a massive wing span that he can cover 1-3 actually. 

I don't hold this past season against him. He was basically out the entire season. He has the offseason plus training camp and pre season to get back into shape. He would be insane to not to pick up his option.  So if nothing else this gives us a veteran BU PG that plays elite on ball defense. He doesn't care about getting his shots either so he could easily lead the bench mob with Cam/Bogi/Kevin/Gallo/OO plus our rookie this year. 

I think we are lucky tbh to have this guy basically in pocket. If we find someone better, great. If we don't then a determined Dunn to get a big deal from someone else is going to play ball's out next season for us. I call that a win/win.

Just work on that jumper Dunn. You will be left open a lot next year from the perimeter.

Edited July 13, 2021 by Spud2nique

[lethalweapon3]

34 minutes ago, kg01 said:

Did we pay him that money to "get his sea legs" or did we pay him to play but, unfortunately and unpredictably, he got hurt.

Don't be like that.

Plus you know good and well Dallas is gonna move heaven and earth to snap up McConnell this offseason.

also noteworthy, that TJ Macc was a 2019 free agent (2 seasons at $3.5 million per) and not 2020. Perhaps Bleach's more comparable alternative as an errant PG acquisition, time-wise, instead of Dunn, would've been the great Evan Turner.

Of course, Baze would still be fooling around here (POR needed to attach a couple second-rounders just to get rid of him), and ET plus picks begat Capela in a multi-team deal, soooo, maybe not so bad, as far as Travisties go?

~lw3

[JayBirdHawk]

I would not like to hold his missed season against him, but we sure could have used him.

I would like to think he can bounce back from his injuries......but, since his rookie season where he played 78 games, he has played 52, 46 and 51 games before joining the Hawks. Just saying.

[kg01]

8 minutes ago, lethalweapon3 said:

also noteworthy, that TJ Macc was a 2019 free agent (2 seasons at $3.5 million per) and not 2020. Perhaps Bleach's more comparable alternative as an errant PG acquisition, time-wise, instead of Dunn, would've been the great Evan Turner.

Of course, Baze would still be fooling around here (POR needed to attach a couple second-rounders just to get rid of him), and ET plus picks begat Capela in a multi-team deal, soooo, maybe not so bad, as far as Travisties go?

~lw3

I read Travis-tites here.

I'm just leaving that where it is ....

[ATLHawks3]

I'm willing to give it one more year, as it is a make or break year for him.

[bird_dirt]

 

28 minutes ago, JayBirdHawk said:

I would not like to hold his missed season against him, but we sure could have used him.

I would like to think he can bounce back from his injuries......but, since his rookie season where he played 78 games, he has played 52, 46 and 51 games before joining the Hawks. Just saying.

Yikes. We can't be cursed with 2 Speedys, can we?

16 minutes ago, ATLHawks3 said:

I'm willing to give it one more year, as it is a make or break year for him.

Please don't say break.