The Mega Super Rumor Thread (Part 2)

[thecampster]

24 minutes ago, TRW said:

What happens to this board when we give 4 1st's and OO for Dejounte.

Well first, someone is going to have to watch @NBASupes 24x7 and take his shoelaces.  Next, I'm going to have take a break to make 2 bags of microwave popcorn, melt some butter and cheese to pour over it and pour a tall cold beverage. Last, I'll have one of the lawyers on the site sue the Spurs organization for all the wasted bandwidth and the ensuing fires to the server room

 

   You're welcome!

[bleachkit]

4 minutes ago, AHF said:

I just want to make sure we aren't talking past each other.

Market value is not what a seller is asking for.  Market is what teams will pay.

I can tell you I want $250k from you for my 2016 Honda Civic.  But the market will tell you that people are willing to pay ~$17k.  The $250k is asking price.  The $17k is market price.  A seller can refuse to sell for market price but a seller doesn't unilaterally dictate market price since that is dictated by the amount other people are willing to pay.

What deals in the past do you see as the richest that the market has actually paid for someone with 1 season above a 16.5 PER and 1 season above a .087 WS/48?  Let's use the richest deals in NBA history for such a player and assume that is the market.  Who are your comparables and what did they fetch?

I agree with you for the most part. But perhaps PER and WS are not representative of market value in this instance.

[JayBirdHawk]

11 minutes ago, bleachkit said:

I agree with you for the most part. But perhaps PER and WS are not representative of market value in this instance.

I guess use PG, Jrue and AD as reference points?  These were pick-centric deals

[AHF]

1 minute ago, bleachkit said:

I agree with you for the most part. But perhaps PER and WS are not representative of market value in this instance.

That is fair.  Just define what you think is market value and we can work from there.  A one-time All-Star in his mid-20s?  I just don't want to see us start using multiple All-NBA players like Paul George as comparables and think that makes any lick of sense when Murray doesn't have anything close to that track record.  Whatever team trades for him is getting him coming off a breakout year that was unlike any season he has had and they know that even in that season he was well below league average in terms of scoring efficiency so even if you bank on him sustaining the leap without regression you know you aren't getting a big gun on offense.

To compare, Paul George and Dejounte Murray both missed a season due to injury.  Through their first 6 seasons, Murray totalled 16.4 win shares.  George totaled 37.4 win shares.  George also had 3 AS appearances (to one for Murray), 3 All-NBA selections (to 0 for Murray), and 3 All-Defense selections (to one for Murray from 4 years ago).  George's worst TS% among his first 5 healthy seasons (.531%) was basically equal to Murray's best season (.533%) and no other season was remotely close.  So let's not speak their names together.

Here is basketball references list of comparables for Murray's first 4 seasons (this ignores the year lost to injury) before he made the leap this year (and I word it that way because for some reason they haven't updated this to include this year's numbers which should be a significant boost to the quality of players on this list):

 

[REHawksFan]

12 minutes ago, AHF said:

I just want to make sure we aren't talking past each other.

Market value is not what a seller is asking for.  Market is what teams will pay.

I can tell you I want $250k from you for my 2016 Honda Civic.  But the market will tell you that people are willing to pay ~$17k.  The $250k is asking price.  The $17k is market price.  A seller can refuse to sell for market price but a seller doesn't unilaterally dictate market price since that is dictated by the amount other people are willing to pay.

What deals in the past do you see as the richest that the market has actually paid for someone with 1 season above a 16.5 PER and 1 season above a .087 WS/48?  Let's use the richest deals in NBA history for such a player and assume that is the market.  Who are your comparables and what did they fetch?

Market Value:  

1. Willing buyer & willing seller

2. Both operating in their best interest

3. Neither under any undue compulsion

4. Asset is exposed to the open market (meaning more than one potential buyer)

 

It takes two to make the thing go right, sure, BUT it also isn't JUST one buyer and one seller.  Theoretically, the market value would be the highest price a buyer (among many buyers) operating in their best interest and without any undue compulsion is willing to pay AND the seller is willing to accept (assuming the seller is also operating in their best interest and without any compulsion to make the deal).  

Even if we look at the transaction price of the very best players in the NBA to be traded in the last 25 years, it doesn't necessarily set the market value unless each of those deals actually reflected the above scenario.  But it does give us a good jumping off point for negotiations.  So I like your logic here. 

The problem with trying to figure out the "Market Value" of player available for trade is nearly every team is operating under some compulsion and there may not always be a competitive market of potential buyers.  

*NERD RANT OVER*

 

[AHF]

3 minutes ago, JayBirdHawk said:

I guess use PG, Jrue and AD as reference points?  These were pick-centric deals

Murray doesn't have anywhere close to the resume that AD or PG had.  They are not comparables in this context.

Through their first 6 seasons, here are the numbers:

DM: 16.4 WS, 0x All-NBA, 1x AS, 1x All-Defense

PG:  37.4 WS, 3x All-NBA, 3x AS, 3x All-Defense

AD:  62.4 WS, 3x All-NBA (all first team), 5x AS, 3x All-Defense

 

Jrue Holiday is by far the best comparable on that list, although he was traded after 8 consecutive seasons with WS totals better than DM's 2nd best season so you were getting a significantly more proven player.  But he is the best comparable for sure.

 

[AHF]

5 minutes ago, REHawksFan said:

Market Value:  

1. Willing buyer & willing seller

2. Both operating in their best interest

3. Neither under any undue compulsion

4. Asset is exposed to the open market (meaning more than one potential buyer)

 

It takes two to make the thing go right, sure, BUT it also isn't JUST one buyer and one seller.  Theoretically, the market value would be the highest price a buyer (among many buyers) operating in their best interest and without any undue compulsion is willing to pay AND the seller is willing to accept (assuming the seller is also operating in their best interest and without any compulsion to make the deal).  

Even if we look at the transaction price of the very best players in the NBA to be traded in the last 25 years, it doesn't necessarily set the market value unless each of those deals actually reflected the above scenario.  But it does give us a good jumping off point for negotiations.  So I like your logic here. 

The problem with trying to figure out the "Market Value" of player available for trade is nearly every team is operating under some compulsion and there may not always be a competitive market of potential buyers.  

*NERD RANT OVER*

 

I agree with you.  The restricted nature of the NBA market (which is FAR from an open market given the cap restrictions, salary maximums, etc.) doesn't allow for a true market value the way we would normally think of it.

The most important point from my perspective is that rumors about what a team is seeking in a trade deal means nothing as far as the true market value.  At least consumated trades give some concrete point of reference but the rumor mill this time of year is filled with self-serving half-truths and whole fictions and should not be taken as a true representation of what teams are willing to pay for a player.

[benhillboy]

1 hour ago, kg01 said:

Everybody knows OO can't shoot yet.  Stahhp. 

"Casual!  Everybody knows PER is trash!!" - Supes 

PER= Player efficiency rating

per 36= per 36 minutes 

per 100= per 100 possessions 

[JayBirdHawk]

 

 

[RedDawg#8]

I remember thinking we paid a hefty price to bring in Joe Johnson, especially since he was just a role player with the Suns.

Sometimes, these things work out better than numbers and analytics could ever predict based on past circumstantial proof.

There is a reason why Pop, one of the best head coaches in the history of the game, is asking for so much for Murray. And I guarantee it’s not based on PER and W/S or anything else. He has his hands on the kid since day 1 and realizes what his ceiling is.
Murray is still ascending and is already more accomplished than Joe was when we went after him.

Consider how much people on here devalued Lavine, DeRozen, Booker and others. 

Just saying, what looks expensive now may look like a bargain later.

[Wretch]

3 minutes ago, JayBirdHawk said:

 

 

Yeah well...somebody get me a waitress.  I'm running low over here...!

[JayBirdHawk]

 

[kg01]

19 minutes ago, benhillboy said:

PER= Player efficiency rating

per 36= per 36 minutes 

per 100= per 100 possessions 

"If the metric don't say OO is the GOAT, then it's wrong!" - KingSupes 

[benhillboy]

12 minutes ago, RedDawg#8 said:

I remember thinking we paid a hefty price to bring in Joe Johnson, especially since he was just a role player with the Suns.

Sometimes, these things work out better than numbers and analytics could ever predict based on past circumstantial proof.

There is a reason why Pop, one of the best head coaches in the history of the game, is asking for so much for Murray. And I guarantee it’s not based on PER and W/S or anything else. He has his hands on the kid since day 1 and realizes what his ceiling is.
Murray is still ascending and is already more accomplished than Joe was when we went after him.

Consider how much people on here devalued Lavine, DeRozen, Booker and others. 

Just saying, what looks expensive now may look like a bargain later.

Joe may not be the best example tho.  He had one memorable playoff game and left on bad terms.  His swift exit was necessary for the birth of #Budball.

[theheroatl]

Will Hardy was the domino we needed to fall!!! We got this!!!

[JayBirdHawk]

3 hours ago, Dean Walker said:

That’s steep man!

I'm just now seeing this from this article:

4) Multiple sources have told me the only player on the Hawks the Spurs would value as a possible replacement for a first round pick is Onyeka Okongwu. The 21-year-old big man averaged 8.2 points, 5.9 rebounds and 1.3 blocks in 20.7 minutes per game last season.

[kg01]

1 minute ago, JayBirdHawk said:

I'm just now seeing this from this article:

4) Multiple sources have told me the only player on the Hawks the Spurs would value as a possible replacement for a first round pick is Onyeka Okongwu. The 21-year-old big man averaged 8.2 points, 5.9 rebounds and 1.3 blocks in 20.7 minutes per game last season.

Done deal then?

[RedDawg#8]

4 minutes ago, benhillboy said:

Joe may not be the best example tho.  He had one memorable playoff game and left on bad terms.  His swift exit was necessary for the birth of #Budball.

Nah it’s all in the past now. And do you not remember that 40 foot bomb he hit against the Heat one series? He had a few good playoff moments.

Good news is, we aren’t trading for Murray to be our top guy like we did with Joe. He will be number 2. Imagine if Joe was that good but only the 2nd best player on those teams behind a legit superstar that scared the crap out of opponents. 

Need I say more? Lol

[txsting]

9 minutes ago, JayBirdHawk said:

I'm just now seeing this from this article:

4) Multiple sources have told me the only player on the Hawks the Spurs would value as a possible replacement for a first round pick is Onyeka Okongwu. The 21-year-old big man averaged 8.2 points, 5.9 rebounds and 1.3 blocks in 20.7 minutes per game last season.

Not a huge problem for me.  

[Diesel]

12 minutes ago, benhillboy said:

Joe may not be the best example tho.  He had one memorable playoff game and left on bad terms.  His swift exit was necessary for the birth of #Budball.

Are you sick???

Joe Johnson went to the Allstar game 7 times as a Hawk.

It's not his fault that they couldn't put the right team around him.

It's not his fault that they picked Marvin Freakin Williams over Chris Paul. 

It's not his fault that Dwight Howard mopped the floor with Al Horford the first time we played Orlando in the playoffs. 

Joe had to play with the team that we gave him.. and then the fans turned on him and he left on Bad terms.