Hawks Lineups: How do you see it playing out?

[sturt]

35 minutes ago, JayBirdHawk said:

It seems as if it will be a 9-man rotation that Nate will use, at least for now.

No AJ. (Koonin mentioned on radio two days ago to expect him to spend time in GL, so it appears he will get the JJ treatment)

 

 

Nice chart. Wish I'd thought of doing something like that. ( )

Working theory here is that the game was just too close and the opponent too awful, and Nate too paranoid about losing. And he probably justified playing Trae and DJ 37-38 minutes each on the basis that he wants to give them all the time he can to get them on the same page and rolling.

I'm guessing 9 primary guys but there will be some looping in the others as opponents and game situations allow... and it nudges to 10 when BogBog returns instead of sitting one of those 9 down.

Some will be surprised when Justin starts losing minutes to AJ. I see that happening sooner than later as long as AJ stays healthy. As always, I hope to eat crow on this one mainly b/c Justin's just such a good guy and you hate to watch a guy's career hitting its horizon. But even if Justin performs comparably to the season before last, rebounding a little bit from his trend, I'm persuaded AJ's just going to be too good to keep down.

[Final_quest]

Bogi's return could shake up the rotations.  Definitely will be watching the minutes of DejounTrae.  Maybe they are thinking we're gonna have some blowouts that will allow them to rest, or even that 38 minutes a night is sustainable?  

[sturt]

6 minutes ago, Final_quest said:

38 minutes a night is sustainable?

In five seasons, only Siakam, Van Vleet, Harden (all last season)... Randle (20-21)... and Lillard (19-20) have averaged as many as 37. Have to go back to 2015-16 to an occasion of someone getting 38, which would be Harden.

I don't think it's wise for a team that expects to be part of the post-season grind. But as importantly, I don't think it's necessary.

[benhillboy]

4 hours ago, JayBirdHawk said:

It's only one game, but do you believe it now?

Somehow I’ve never paid the attention  to him that I normally would players of his ilk.  Those Spurs teams with Gay, Derozan, and Aldridge were just so damn bland and doomed to fail.  It’s rare a player who’s been in the league this long makes such a lasting first impression upon me.  
 

Yes, the two hand passes are very strong and zippy yet he has no problem adding touch.  It’s almost unexplainable how he keeps turns so low because he isn’t a safe, non-risk taker by any means.  The versatility is elite as he can guard 1 through some 3s and seamlessly transition from on to off guard.  He can shoot like sh%t and still help drive winning, imperative for a lead guy.  He and Trae made opening night history along with Banchero (my eyes popped at 25/5/5), and Derozan, I’ll take it.  

He‘a certainly his own man but he has DNA from some of my all time favs: Grant Hill, Jimmy, Ron Harper. He’s like Tyreke Evans multiplied to the third power.

I was about as happy with the strong resonance and deep pitch of his voice as his play.  His words are never gonna be lost on his teammates.  He was quite loquacious in the post presser. almost Draymond-like in his enthusiasm for talking ball.

Gimme all the DJM stock I can afford.  All he needs is team health (I hope Trae isn’t due for a long injury hiatus as he’s never had one), Martin and Bogi to shoot well above average from three, and OO and John to spam those post up mismatches.  He takes so much pressure off Trae to be the man and Dre at the point of attack.  
 

I suspect his advanced metrics like 100 possession ratings won’t illustrate how great he is.  Too much noise with switching between the first and second unit along with the unpredictable three point and FT shooting progress.  I wouldn’t sweat it at all.  But I do expect his defensive box to hover around +2 and his win shares per 48 to be around .175-ish.  This team is pretty deep and OO is the reigning Win Share champ but if the Hawks kick major ass he could reach around .190, certainly higher than Clint.
 

538 projected the Hawks to finish second in the East.  Not looking too farfetched after last night.  No question Houston is awful but they still could’ve beaten a good team last night with the rebounding and athleticism.

[JayBirdHawk]

On 10/1/2022 at 12:28 PM, JayBirdHawk said:

My biggest concern with the lineups is going to need Nate's insistence on playing an all bench lineup.

Seems like I was concerned for no reason. In 2 games, no all bench. I dig.

Trae has played the entire 1st and 3rd quarters, DJ, 2nd and 4th.

Minutes per game by bench in 1st 2 games:

AHol  - 16 mpg/4.5ppg/2.5spg

JHol - 19.5 mpg/6ppg/2.5apg/40% from 3 on 5 attempts

JJ - 13 mpg/4.5ppg/1rpg

OO  - 19 mpg/8ppg/6rpg

Nate must be loving this 9-man rotation, IIRC he said it's easier managing minutes of 9 rather than 10. It will be interesting to see how these minutes play out when Bogi returns.

[JayBirdHawk]

So! If Nate saw the light and decides to keep AJ in his official 'NINE': Starters plus AHol, AJ, JJ and OO - What happens when the BogStar returns? Assuming when he has no restrictions:

1. Who does he replace in The NINE?

2. Would Nate play 10 and have an ALL bench lineup with Bogi running the unit for some minutes?

3. If you had to replace 1 of the 9, who would it be and why?

 

 

 

[Gray Mule]

9 hours ago, JayBirdHawk said:

So! If Nate saw the light and decides to keep AJ in his official 'NINE': Starters plus AHol, AJ, JJ and OO - What happens when the BogStar returns? Assuming when he has no restrictions:

1. Who does he replace in The NINE?

2. Would Nate play 10 and have an ALL bench lineup with Bogi running the unit for some minutes?

3. If you had to replace 1 of the 9, who would it be and why?

 

 

 

Nate doesn't think about this.  If he did he might have a breakdown!  

[macdaddy]

11 hours ago, JayBirdHawk said:

So! If Nate saw the light and decides to keep AJ in his official 'NINE': Starters plus AHol, AJ, JJ and OO - What happens when the BogStar returns? Assuming when he has no restrictions:

1. Who does he replace in The NINE?

2. Would Nate play 10 and have an ALL bench lineup with Bogi running the unit for some minutes?

3. If you had to replace 1 of the 9, who would it be and why?

 

 

 

This is a great question.  So as of now the bench is AH, AJ, JJ, OO

1. I think Bogi replaces Aaron Holiday.  Bogi can't play the 3 but AJ can.   

2. I think he will play 10.  Trae and DJ are averaging a lot of minutes.  Aaron Holiday/Bogi together might be pretty good  AH/Bogi/AJ/JJ/OO might be fun to watch for a minute.   Guys are going to need rest though.  it's a long season.  Plus Nate doesn't like sitting guys who are performing well especially on D.  He's not going to want to sit Aaron.

3.  I'd replace Aaron.   I like his energy but he's not giving us much shooting.

[JayBirdHawk]

47 minutes ago, macdaddy said:

This is a great question.  So as of now the bench is AH, AJ, JJ, OO

1. I think Bogi replaces Aaron Holiday.  Bogi can't play the 3 but AJ can.   

2. I think he will play 10.  Trae and DJ are averaging a lot of minutes.  Aaron Holiday/Bogi together might be pretty good  AH/Bogi/AJ/JJ/OO might be fun to watch for a minute.   Guys are going to need rest though.  it's a long season.  Plus Nate doesn't like sitting guys who are performing well especially on D.  He's not going to want to sit Aaron.

3.  I'd replace Aaron.   I like his energy but he's not giving us much shooting.

My thinking is also replacing AHol with Bogi.

Nate's 1st sub is Trae out AHol in, then Trae comes back in to finish the 4th.

So we'll see this lineup after Bogi:

DJ, Bogi, Hunter, JC, CC.

Trae, Bogi, AJ, JC, CC

Start of 2nd:

DJ, Bogi, AJ, JJ, OO/CC

[JayBirdHawk]

What does our rotations look like with all healthy players under a different coach? Nate opted to bench JJ both when Bogi returned and with the arrival of Bey. Looks like That's about to change.

[NBASupes]

9 minutes ago, JayBirdHawk said:

What does our rotations look like with all healthy players under a different coach? Nate opted to bench JJ both when Bogi returned and with the arrival of Bey. Looks like That's about to change.

More of the same. I can't see a grand change happening. 

[JayBirdHawk]

14. Atlanta Hawks

Trae Young, Dejounte Murray, De'Andre Hunter, John Collins and Clint Capela

As tempting as it might be to blame the Atlanta Hawks' starting five for the team's overall mediocrity, that's one of the few things that's undeniably working.

As anticipated, Dejounte Murray has helped cover for some of Trae Young's defensive deficiencies. The playmaking split between those two hasn't been quite as tricky as some expected, either. Rim-running center Clint Capela is helping to pull defensive attention toward the rim.

If there is a concern, it might be the average three-point percentage of De'Andre Hunter (35.9 percent) and the way-below-average mark of John Collins (24.8 percent), but that isn't causing much of a problem in the plus-minus column.

The Hawks are plus-12.6 points per 100 possessions when their starters are on the floor.

 

https://bleacherreport.com/articles/10066187-ranking-every-nba-starting-lineup-right-now

[RedDawg#8]

3 hours ago, JayBirdHawk said:

What does our rotations look like with all healthy players under a different coach? Nate opted to bench JJ both when Bogi returned and with the arrival of Bey. Looks like That's about to change.

It’s hard to deploy a 10-man lineup consistently. With the addition of Bey, and once fully healthy, somebody’s minutes are going to be sacrificed. I believe OO and Bogi are solidified in the rotation, so the logical choices will end up being either AJ or JJ.

My hope is that we commit to matchups and strategy, not just some predetermined rotation that sees one of the youngin’s permanently cut.

If we need size, play JJ, if we need shooting, play AJ. If ANY of the top 8 are having an off night, sit them and play both of the kids. Don’t just decide in the film room that so and so is out of the rotation and not even be open to the possibility of adjusting your gameplan on the fly.

That to me is growth and shows accountability. If Dre, JC or Bogi don’t have it one night, it’s okay to let others eat and get it going. I am saying them specifically, knowing our (2) PGs and (2) Centers will always have their minutes. Everyone else needs to be hot hand, what have you done for me lately.

[sturt]

39 minutes ago, RedDawg#8 said:

It’s hard to deploy a 10-man lineup consistently. With the addition of Bey, and once fully healthy, somebody’s minutes are going to be sacrificed. I believe OO and Bogi are solidified in the rotation, so the logical choices will end up being either AJ or JJ.

1. No one took me up on my avatar bet that, of the options, the one whose minutes per game would be most compromised by the addition of Bey would be BogBog.

A lot of people wanted to say they believed JJ and/or AJ would, rather, be the ones most cut back. But as I said then, I say now, first they didn't have that many minutes to cut back in the first place; and second, BogBog's knees are a legitimate concern and he'd been averaging 30(!) min/pgm almost exactly at the time.

I continue to maintain for those reasons that you're going to see BogBog's minutes contained so that he's as fresh as possible for the post season... something much closer to 20 than to 30.

 

2. Snyder has had seasons where his rotations were conventional (as Nate's were, btw), but he's also had seasons where he had more than 10 players that averaged more than 15 minutes per game.

 

 

[sturt]

1 hour ago, JayBirdHawk said:

14. Atlanta Hawks

Trae Young, Dejounte Murray, De'Andre Hunter, John Collins and Clint Capela

As tempting as it might be to blame the Atlanta Hawks' starting five for the team's overall mediocrity, that's one of the few things that's undeniably working.

As anticipated, Dejounte Murray has helped cover for some of Trae Young's defensive deficiencies. The playmaking split between those two hasn't been quite as tricky as some expected, either. Rim-running center Clint Capela is helping to pull defensive attention toward the rim.

If there is a concern, it might be the average three-point percentage of De'Andre Hunter (35.9 percent) and the way-below-average mark of John Collins (24.8 percent), but that isn't causing much of a problem in the plus-minus column.

The Hawks are plus-12.6 points per 100 possessions when their starters are on the floor.

 

https://bleacherreport.com/articles/10066187-ranking-every-nba-starting-lineup-right-now

Surprised to see a sober assessment offered.

Surprised also, though, to see that that sober assessment clearly didn't translate into a ranking that would be congruent with such an assessment.

How do you write that and cite those stats, yet still render a #14 number? Not reasonable.