League-Adjusted Shooting: Field Goals Added (or subtracted)

[benhillboy]

Sort the “adjusted shooting” table by “FG added”:

https://www.basketball-reference.com/leagues/NBA_2023_adj_shooting.html
 

See any names that stick out? 

Edited January 4, 2023 by benhillboy

[BrazilianHawk]

4 hours ago, benhillboy said:

Sort the “adjusted shooting” table by “FG added”:

https://www.basketball-reference.com/leagues/NBA_2023_adj_shooting.html
 

See any names that stick out? 

I see Fool's Gold. 

[benhillboy]

6 hours ago, BrazilianHawk said:

I see Fool's Gold. 

Everyone else wants to ignore him being the worst shooter based on league average by a wide margin to post pages of absolute nonsense instead.  I knew this board has become terribly illegitimate but I just wanted to confirm lol.

[benhillboy]

@NBASupes is he still a “GOAT level” offensive player?

[bleachkit]

Can you tell me what that stat means exactly? How is it determined?

[benhillboy]

20 minutes ago, bleachkit said:

Can you tell me what that stat means exactly? How is it determined?

Its a cumulative value of how high above or below league average a player shoots when taking FG%, 2 point %, 3 point %, eFG and TS% (which aren’t gonna differ much), FT shooting, FT rate, and three point rate into account.  If those values are higher than 100 it’s above league average, below 100 it’s under.  For instance a 110 FT rate means the player shoots 10% more FTs than the average player.  A 72% 3 point rate would mean the player shoots 28% fewer threes than league average.  
 

All that really matters is that Jokic is the standard for efficient all around shooting this season and Trae is hundreds of players down at the very bottom.  As a rule you don’t want to be the statistical antithesis of Nikola.  Just pointing out how this board has glossed over Traes horrendous, team-killing shooting, as if he doesn’t have enough issues outside of that.

Edited January 4, 2023 by benhillboy

[cam1218]

It is one way to look at it, and I'm not here defending his shooting. I think his play has been mediocre this year, he just doesn't seem to have an offensive rhythm. Just saying that a metric that shows Saben Lee (who?) as a better player definitely can be used as part of an argument but can't tell the whole story. I will add that Ja Morant is at the very bottom of that list too. 

[bleachkit]

11 minutes ago, cam1218 said:

It is one way to look at it, and I'm not here defending his shooting. I think his play has been mediocre this year, he just doesn't seem to have an offensive rhythm. Just saying that a metric that shows Saben Lee (who?) as a better player definitely can be used as part of an argument but can't tell the whole story. I will add that Ja Morant is at the very bottom of that list too. 

It's not stating better or worse per se, it's just quantifying shooting efficiency. Include a minimum volume threshold to remove bench guys and what not.

Bottom line, Trae is having an absolutely brutal year shooting the basketball. 

Edited January 4, 2023 by bleachkit

[BrazilianHawk]

5 minutes ago, cam1218 said:

It is one way to look at it, and I'm not here defending his shooting. I think his play has been mediocre this year, he just doesn't seem to have an offensive rhythm. Just saying that a metric that shows Saben Lee (who?) as a better player definitely can be used as part of an argument but can't tell the whole story. I will add that Ja Morant is at the very bottom of that list too. 

To be fair, it's not because Saben Lee (who?) is showed as a better player in this metric. It's the whole frakking league. 

On top of the very sub-par shooting comes the fact that Trae doesn't play a lick of defense. It's just "numbers", but when you're going hand in hand with Vanvleet, Rozier, Oubre, Westbrick and on the opposite side of Durant, Jokic, Curry, Mitchell, Hield, Doncic, Halliburton and even Huerter, that's a really bad look. 

[AHF]

FG added is not nearly as useful as TS added for a guy who scores a lot on 3's and FT's.  That being said, it is still very rough for Trae and a number of other big names this  year even looking at the more relevant TS added:

Khris Middleton #414

Jordan Poole #431

Jamaal Murray #445

Klay Thompson #451

Ja Morant #459

Trae Young #464

Fred VanVleet #476

Dejounte Murray #478

Scottie Barnes #481

CJ McCollum #484

This is a rough stat on PGs.  The only PG in the top 25 this season is Steph Curry who is a quasi PG (with a 0.1 apg lead over the next best Warrior this season).  If Trae finishes this season where he is now, it will be a disaster of a year for him.  December was only marginally better than October and November so he has work to do.

 

But note where Trae was the last three seasons before you rail against him as some kind of a blight on the Hawks.  

2021-22 Trae Young #14 (Luka #137) - Best PG in the league

2020-21 Trae Young #60 (Luke #58) - Sixth Best PG in the League

2019-20 Trae Young #26 (Luka #45) - Third Best PG in the League

 

 

[bleachkit]

56 minutes ago, AHF said:

FG added is not nearly as useful as TS added for a guy who scores a lot on 3's and FT's.  That being said, it is still very rough for Trae and a number of other big names this  year even looking at the more relevant TS added:

Khris Middleton #414

Jordan Poole #431

Jamaal Murray #445

Klay Thompson #451

Ja Morant #459

Trae Young #464

Fred VanVleet #476

Dejounte Murray #478

Scottie Barnes #481

CJ McCollum #484

This is a rough stat on PGs.  The only PG in the top 25 this season is Steph Curry who is a quasi PG (with a 0.1 apg lead over the next best Warrior this season).  If Trae finishes this season where he is now, it will be a disaster of a year for him.  December was only marginally better than October and November so he has work to do.

 

But note where Trae was the last three seasons before you rail against him as some kind of a blight on the Hawks.  

2021-22 Trae Young #14 (Luka #137) - Best PG in the league

2020-21 Trae Young #60 (Luke #58) - Sixth Best PG in the League

2019-20 Trae Young #26 (Luka #45) - Third Best PG in the League

 

 

He's having a brutal year, and no one is sure quite why. His strong track record suggests he will bounce back at some point hopefully. 

[NBASupes]

I am not sure who this trade was a worse fit for, the Hawks offense or Trae. He completely is trash in many metrics this year where he is normally doing well for PGs. 

Murray probably gotten a tad better with the trade efficiency wise without #1 option responsibilities but gotten worse as far as playmaking for the same reasons. 

This trade hasn't turned out well. I am trying to figure out which trade was worse, Gobert or Murray. I actually like some of Goberts recent game tape on the Wolves. If they just had someone who sucked on offense but could lead and defend like Pat Bev, they would he much better than they are now. They need someone that can defend PGs bad. Like worse than us last year. 

[NBASupes]

21 minutes ago, bleachkit said:

He's having a brutal year, and no one is sure quite why. His strong track record suggests he will bounce back at some point hopefully. 

I don't think he's improving this year. He just don't got the same rhythm or space to operate in. Our PnR numbers are down and it's still mainly what we spam the most. 

Because of Bud ball, Trae came into a situation with proper spacing. His 2nd year, spacing got hit hard but once Kevin got healthy and they unsuspend JC we moved Cam to the bench for Kevin, his numbers climbed back up instantly. 

We really gotta think, this is probably Trae first year with what teams like LAL go through to a degree. Trae ain't big enough to handle it. His game is spammy.

Edited January 4, 2023 by NBASupes

[NBASupes]

2 hours ago, benhillboy said:

@NBASupes is he still a “GOAT level” offensive player?

I still feel like his impact with the ball is GOAT level. He showed us that in the run to the ECF. He might can't score like Mitchell or Luka but he can create chances like no other due to his quickness and size. 

[Atlantaholic]

2 hours ago, cam1218 said:

It is one way to look at it, and I'm not here defending his shooting. I think his play has been mediocre this year, he just doesn't seem to have an offensive rhythm. Just saying that a metric that shows Saben Lee (who?) as a better player definitely can be used as part of an argument but can't tell the whole story. I will add that Ja Morant is at the very bottom of that list too. 

Pointing out that Ja is overrated is little consolation. I posted this in another thread but relevant to post here.

Out of the top 30 scorers in the NBA only Keldon Johnson has a lower TS% than Trae. Ja is a fraction better. Every other top 30 scorer is several % points better than Trae. In the top 10 no one is under 59% (vs Trae at 55%). Trae has been dreadful scoring the ball. Luckily he is absolutely elite at passing the ball (the best in the NBA metrics-wise). But his scoring has fallen off a cliff this year if you look beyond just his PPGs. Couple it with his typical absolute garbage tier defense, and it's a really bad season by the guy that should be our superstar. An argument can be made he isn't top 20 atm. 

[NBASupes]

1 minute ago, Atlantaholic said:

Pointing out that Ja is overrated is little consolation. I posted this in another thread but relevant to post here.

Out of the top 30 scorers in the NBA only Keldon Johnson has a lower TS% than Trae. Ja is a fraction better. Every other top 30 scorer is several % points better than Trae. In the top 10 no one is under 59% (vs Trae at 55%). Trae has been dreadful scoring the ball. Luckily he is absolutely elite at passing the ball (the best in the NBA metrics-wise). But his scoring has fallen off a cliff this year if you look beyond just his PPGs. Couple it with his typical absolute garbage tier defense, and it's a really bad season by the guy that should be our superstar. An argument can be made he isn't top 20 atm. 

Ja is way better than you are saying he is

[Atlantaholic]

1 minute ago, NBASupes said:

Ja is way better than you are saying he is

Not scoring the ball he isn't, not compared to all the other top scorers in the NBA at least. Grizz playing fantastic defense and Ja deserves credit for his defensive improvement, he's a great player overall probably top 15. Not even close to being an MVP candidate like some people were saying early on in the year. Probably not a top 10 player this season. 

[cam1218]

38 minutes ago, NBASupes said:

I still feel like his impact with the ball is GOAT level. He showed us that in the run to the ECF. He might can't score like Mitchell or Luka but he can create chances like no other due to his quickness and size. 

He can’t score like them, but the sad thing (because it isn’t happening this year) is he had a lot of games where he could score at such an efficient level in seasons past. Especially big games and if it wasn’t the entire game, during the 4th quarter. That made it easy to defend his off games. This year those moments or games just aren’t happening, he’s just so off.

[benhillboy]

Trae lurking lol.  No coincidence he took the fewest shots of the season last night and the Hawks got the rare win on the road versus an okay team.  Nate cut them minutes a bit too for the defenses sake.

Edited January 5, 2023 by benhillboy

[AHF]

@benhillboy

Two questions for you on this:

(1) How confident are you that Trae will finish the season anywhere near the bottom 5% of the league in TS added?  Your tone seems to suggest you believe he is a detriment to the team and that him shooting will hurt the team for the rest of the year but you aren't actually saying much about how much you view this bottom tier performance year to date as the "true" Trae and how much you view it as him having struggles below his normal performance.

(2) What conclusions are you suggesting people should draw on Trae's value on offense given his performance this year and the prior 3 years?  I don't see you noting how far of an outlier this season is compared to the prior 3 years.