League-Adjusted Shooting: Field Goals Added (or subtracted)

[AHF]

FYI - Trae has now moved up in TS added from 464 to 441 (passing Ja Morant, Klay Thompson, Gordon Hayward and others).  Hopefully he can maintain his recent improved scoring and get back to his strong numbers from the last 3 years.

[macdaddy]

On 1/4/2023 at 3:01 PM, benhillboy said:

Everyone else wants to ignore him being the worst shooter based on league average by a wide margin to post pages of absolute nonsense instead.  I knew this board has become terribly illegitimate but I just wanted to confirm lol.

How'd he look last year compared to someone like Joel Embiid?

[AHF]

25 minutes ago, macdaddy said:

How'd he look last year compared to someone like Joel Embiid?

Last year, Embiid was #7 in the league in TS added while Trae was #14.

FWIW, this is a metric that really favors big men who take higher % shots.  Here are the leaders from last year:

[benhillboy]

On 1/9/2023 at 12:17 PM, AHF said:

Last year, Embiid was #7 in the league in TS added while Trae was #14.

FWIW, this is a metric that really favors big men who take higher % shots.  Here are the leaders from last year:

Different sized players are littered all over.  Kevin Huerter, Donovan Mitchell, Wiggins, Isaiah Joe, Damion Lee, Kyrie, even Bruce Brown place high this season.  They aren’t Bigs.  Precious Achuwa, Scottie Barnes, Paskal, and Banchero are Bigs and still rank near the bottom.  It’s about smart team shooting.

I simply don’t want to see Trae in a class of guys like this at a max deal

Remove FVV and Trae for very subpar shooting seasons and these are arguably the absolute worst rotation players in the league.  This metric shakes em out along with win share, on/ off, box, and rating.

Edited January 10, 2023 by benhillboy

[JeffS17]

I don't think most of us here have been giving Trae a pass this year.  His shooting has been horrible and absolutely an anomaly, but the fear that I have that I know some here share is that the roster fit (and what our offense has become partly because of the poor fit) is largely driving the worse shooting, and there won't be a significant rebound.  I personally am fond of eFG% and his is terrible this year.  @AHF lives and dies by TS%, but imo, Trae drawing soft fouls all year does not bode well for us come post season -- even if free throws are helping boost his TS%.  I've always believed that you need efficient scoring through shot making, not free throws.  I could probably write an essay on why I believe in that, but you see it at the ends of tight games when refs swallow their whistles and you often see it in the playoffs as well.  

[AHF]

20 hours ago, benhillboy said:

Different sized players are littered all over.  Kevin Huerter, Donovan Mitchell, Wiggins, Isaiah Joe, Damion Lee, Kyrie, even Bruce Brown place high this season.  They aren’t Bigs.  Precious Achuwa, Scottie Barnes, Paskal, and Banchero are Bigs and still rank near the bottom.  It’s about smart team shooting.

I simply don’t want to see Trae in a class of guys like this at a max deal

Remove FVV and Trae for very subpar shooting seasons and these are arguably the absolute worst rotation players in the league.  This metric shakes em out along with win share, on/ off, box, and rating.

I did ask you several questions on this thread.  Would love to hear your thoughts.

[AHF]

21 hours ago, JeffS17 said:

I don't think most of us here have been giving Trae a pass this year.  His shooting has been horrible and absolutely an anomaly, but the fear that I have that I know some here share is that the roster fit (and what our offense has become partly because of the poor fit) is largely driving the worse shooting, and there won't be a significant rebound.  I personally am fond of eFG% and his is terrible this year.  @AHF lives and dies by TS%, but imo, Trae drawing soft fouls all year does not bode well for us come post season -- even if free throws are helping boost his TS%.  I've always believed that you need efficient scoring through shot making, not free throws.  I could probably write an essay on why I believe in that, but you see it at the ends of tight games when refs swallow their whistles and you often see it in the playoffs as well.  

You need both to be truly elite.  Michael Jordan is not Michael Jordan without his ability to get to the line.  For example, during their second three-peat, Jordan ranked behind players like Matt Maloney, Bryon Russell, Bo Outlaw, Steve Kerr, Wesley Person, Voshon Leonard, etc. when looking at FG added for 1996-97.  When you go to TS added, he jumps over all those names.  And I think that is the fairer representation of his scoring efficiency.

The year that most embodies this disconnect for Jordan is 1997-98.  Jordan actually ranked 327th out of 439 players in 1997-98 by FG added despite winning MVP and leading the league in scoring on the way to another Bulls championship.  He rated a much higher 57th by TS added.  Which was closer to his true value as a scorer?  Did he actively hurt the Bulls by shooting that season as the negative FG added and benhillboy's take on analogous numbers from Trae this year would suggest?  I'm going out on a limb and say that wasn't the case.  He led the team by a wide, wide margin in OWS and OBPM.  Just something to consider when thinking about what this metric actually says and how it should be used.  (You see this same disconnect in other Jordan seasons like 1986-87 where he ranked #221 in FG added but #21 in TS added.)

To your bigger point about Trae's bad shooting this season and the fact that the vast majority of the fan base has called this out, I fully agree.

[thecampster]

On 1/4/2023 at 3:41 PM, benhillboy said:

Its a cumulative value of how high above or below league average a player shoots when taking FG%, 2 point %, 3 point %, eFG and TS% (which aren’t gonna differ much), FT shooting, FT rate, and three point rate into account.  If those values are higher than 100 it’s above league average, below 100 it’s under.  For instance a 110 FT rate means the player shoots 10% more FTs than the average player.  A 72% 3 point rate would mean the player shoots 28% fewer threes than league average.  
 

All that really matters is that Jokic is the standard for efficient all around shooting this season and Trae is hundreds of players down at the very bottom.  As a rule you don’t want to be the statistical antithesis of Nikola.  Just pointing out how this board has glossed over Traes horrendous, team-killing shooting, as if he doesn’t have enough issues outside of that.

Huerter is 15th on the list.....just sayin

[Atlantaholic]

21 hours ago, JeffS17 said:

I don't think most of us here have been giving Trae a pass this year.  His shooting has been horrible and absolutely an anomaly, but the fear that I have that I know some here share is that the roster fit (and what our offense has become partly because of the poor fit) is largely driving the worse shooting, and there won't be a significant rebound.  I personally am fond of eFG% and his is terrible this year.  @AHF lives and dies by TS%, but imo, Trae drawing soft fouls all year does not bode well for us come post season -- even if free throws are helping boost his TS%.  I've always believed that you need efficient scoring through shot making, not free throws.  I could probably write an essay on why I believe in that, but you see it at the ends of tight games when refs swallow their whistles and you often see it in the playoffs as well.  

That's a good point. Not a lot of calls against Miami for Trae last year that's for sure. 

[JeffS17]

54 minutes ago, AHF said:

You need both to be truly elite.  Michael Jordan is not Michael Jordan without his ability to get to the line.  For example, during their second three-peat, Jordan ranked behind players like Matt Maloney, Bryon Russell, Bo Outlaw, Steve Kerr, Wesley Person, Voshon Leonard, etc. when looking at FG added for 1996-97.  When you go to TS added, he jumps over all those names.  And I think that is the fairer representation of his scoring efficiency.

The year that most embodies this disconnect for Jordan is 1997-98.  Jordan actually ranked 327th out of 439 players in 1997-98 by FG added despite winning MVP and leading the league in scoring on the way to another Bulls championship.  He rated a much higher 57th by TS added.  Which was closer to his true value as a scorer?  Did he actively hurt the Bulls by shooting that season as the negative FG added and benhillboy's take on analogous numbers from Trae this year would suggest?  I'm going out on a limb and say that wasn't the case.  He led the team by a wide, wide margin in OWS and OBPM.  Just something to consider when thinking about what this metric actually says and how it should be used.  (You see this same disconnect in other Jordan seasons like 1986-87 where he ranked #221 in FG added but #21 in TS added.)

To your bigger point about Trae's bad shooting this season and the fact that the vast majority of the fan base has called this out, I fully agree.

I think you have to look at how the fouls are drawn.  Being such an unstoppable force that opponents have to foul you is different than most of the fouls Trae picks up, in my opinion.  He gets a lot of soft calls that can and will dry up from game to game, depending on the officiating crew and other factors.  You need to be able to knock down shots when defenses are allowed to play a little more aggressive or are frankly just more disciplined.  And I'd argue it's critically important in the last minute of the game if he's going to insist on iso'ing or taking the shot himself because refs are not going to give a ticky tacky call to decide the game.

The other thing I'll call out is while getting to the line may be a skill, there is no differentiator between getting to the line as a skill and technical free throws, delay of game free throws, 3 second violation free throws, or intentional fouling at the end of game free throws.  Trae takes all of those and it inflates his numbers (as it does for a lot of guards).  All this to say I just really am not a huge believer in TS% as the holy grail of efficiency because I think it's a poor predictor of performance whereas making shots consistently is always going to be reliable.  Look at Harden in the playoffs historically to see what I'd like to avoid versus a player like KD who gets his point from making buckets.

[AHF]

47 minutes ago, JeffS17 said:

I think you have to look at how the fouls are drawn.  Being such an unstoppable force that opponents have to foul you is different than most of the fouls Trae picks up, in my opinion.  He gets a lot of soft calls that can and will dry up from game to game, depending on the officiating crew and other factors.  You need to be able to knock down shots when defenses are allowed to play a little more aggressive or are frankly just more disciplined.  And I'd argue it's critically important in the last minute of the game if he's going to insist on iso'ing or taking the shot himself because refs are not going to give a ticky tacky call to decide the game.

The other thing I'll call out is while getting to the line may be a skill, there is no differentiator between getting to the line as a skill and technical free throws, delay of game free throws, 3 second violation free throws, or intentional fouling at the end of game free throws.  Trae takes all of those and it inflates his numbers (as it does for a lot of guards).  All this to say I just really am not a huge believer in TS% as the holy grail of efficiency because I think it's a poor predictor of performance whereas making shots consistently is always going to be reliable.  Look at Harden in the playoffs historically to see what I'd like to avoid versus a player like KD who gets his point from making buckets.

KD actually scores a higher % of his points from the line in the playoffs than in the regular season.  Curry scores a higher % of his points from the line in the playoffs than the regular season.  LeBron scores a higher % of his points from the line in the playoffs than in the regular season.  This isn't unusual.

I'll just say that the ability to get to the line remains an essential skill in the playoffs and that Trae has the tools to do so (with the caveat that follows).

IMO, if we keep iso'ing Trae on the regular down the stretch of games, we deserve whatever misfortune comes our way.  He simply doesn't have the physical tools to dominate in those situations consistently enough for that to work.  Iso situations in general are a low efficiency approach to basketball and I agree with you that the refs are going to swallow their whistle in last shot situations more often than in other situations.  You need to run plays that are designed to work even without a call.  Maybe saying "Kobe we are going to roll the ball out to you and then you do your thing" is good enough to work but Trae isn't that player.  His best skill is his passing.  His scoring is more diverse and works better when the defense has difficulty holding its shape - which is not the case in iso situations.  I hope we get a coach who doesn't continue this disservice.

[NBASupes]

18 hours ago, thecampster said:

Huerter is 15th on the list.....just sayin

Hunter adds a lot of winning value. Most decent to elite big wings do. 

17 hours ago, JeffS17 said:

I think you have to look at how the fouls are drawn.  Being such an unstoppable force that opponents have to foul you is different than most of the fouls Trae picks up, in my opinion.  He gets a lot of soft calls that can and will dry up from game to game, depending on the officiating crew and other factors.  You need to be able to knock down shots when defenses are allowed to play a little more aggressive or are frankly just more disciplined.  And I'd argue it's critically important in the last minute of the game if he's going to insist on iso'ing or taking the shot himself because refs are not going to give a ticky tacky call to decide the game.

The other thing I'll call out is while getting to the line may be a skill, there is no differentiator between getting to the line as a skill and technical free throws, delay of game free throws, 3 second violation free throws, or intentional fouling at the end of game free throws.  Trae takes all of those and it inflates his numbers (as it does for a lot of guards).  All this to say I just really am not a huge believer in TS% as the holy grail of efficiency because I think it's a poor predictor of performance whereas making shots consistently is always going to be reliable.  Look at Harden in the playoffs historically to see what I'd like to avoid versus a player like KD who gets his point from making buckets.

I wouldn't call them soft, they are crafty.

[Diesel]

On 1/9/2023 at 12:17 PM, AHF said:

Last year, Embiid was #7 in the league in TS added while Trae was #14.

FWIW, this is a metric that really favors big men who take higher % shots.  Here are the leaders from last year:

Just the optic of this is simply amazing.   There are no other PGs to make this list.   As far as other positions.. 1 SF makes the list.  No SGs. 

This is just eye opening.   Or at least it should be. 

[JayBirdHawk]

On 1/4/2023 at 5:44 PM, NBASupes said:

On 1/4/2023 at 5:24 PM, bleachkit said:

 

I don't think he's improving this year. He just don't got the same rhythm or space to operate in. Our PnR numbers are down and it's still mainly what we spam the most. 

You really thought Trae wouldn't improve his shooting metrics this year?

 

 

[benhillboy]

Thankfully he’s no longer dead last.  Come on down Jalen Green!  18 shots a game for him lol.

Edited January 16, 2023 by benhillboy

[benhillboy]

AJ tied with Aldama at +19.6 who’s slick one of the most impactful players on the Grizz.  108 on 2pt+ is awesome for a rook, I’d like to see his 3 pt+ bump even higher from 132 to about 138.  
 

Taurean Prince right behind them with a .603 eFG!  Of course his defensive rating would be the lowest of his career at 117 that boy never could put it together.  That month and a half stretch at the end of the season where he seemed possessed and played near AS level as an initiator/ scorer is still one of my weirdest sports memories.   Approached Bronco Tebow-mania and Lin-sanity level overachievement but not quite lol.

Edited January 16, 2023 by benhillboy

[AHF]

On 1/9/2023 at 11:38 AM, AHF said:

FYI - Trae has now moved up in TS added from 464 to 441 (passing Ja Morant, Klay Thompson, Gordon Hayward and others).  Hopefully he can maintain his recent improved scoring and get back to his strong numbers from the last 3 years.

Trae has now moved up in TS added from 464 when the thread started to 413.  In addition to passing Morant, Thompson, etc. earlier he has now passed Anthony Edwards, LaMelo Ball, and others.  

On 1/5/2023 at 9:43 AM, AHF said:

@benhillboy

Two questions for you on this:

(1) How confident are you that Trae will finish the season anywhere near the bottom 5% of the league in TS added?  Your tone seems to suggest you believe he is a detriment to the team and that him shooting will hurt the team for the rest of the year but you aren't actually saying much about how much you view this bottom tier performance year to date as the "true" Trae and how much you view it as him having struggles below his normal performance.

(2) What conclusions are you suggesting people should draw on Trae's value on offense given his performance this year and the prior 3 years?  I don't see you noting how far of an outlier this season is compared to the prior 3 years. 

 

[benhillboy]

On 1/9/2023 at 11:38 AM, AHF said:

FYI - Trae has now moved up in TS added from 464 to 441 (passing Ja Morant, Klay Thompson, Gordon Hayward and others).  Hopefully he can maintain his recent improved scoring and get back to his strong numbers from the last 3 years.

People only see Ja highlights, with good reason his hops are extraordinary.  But what they don’t show is a gang of ill-advised paint shots against loaded defenses and his shaky FT shooting.  Grizz got 5 rotation guys shooting the three above average, no way he should be taking 5.

Edited January 18, 2023 by benhillboy

[AHF]

17 hours ago, benhillboy said:

People only see Ja highlights, with good reason his hops are extraordinary.  But what they don’t show is a gang of ill-advised paint shots against loaded defenses and his shaky FT shooting.  Grizz got 5 rotation guys shooting the three above average, no way he should be taking 5.

Totally agree on Ja.  People think Trae is inefficient but Ja has yet to score as many points as Trae in a season or score them as efficiently.  Rebounding is his big edge but I think that pales compared to playmaking and scoring.

Still eager to hear your thoughts on those questions I asked you earlier in the thread.  

[macdaddy]

2 minutes ago, AHF said:

Totally agree on Ja.  People think Trae is inefficient but Ja has yet to score as many points as Trae in a season or score them as efficiently.  Rebounding is his big edge but I think that pales compared to playmaking and scoring.

Still eager to hear your thoughts on those questions I asked you earlier in the thread.  

I still hear mvp talk for Ja and people laugh if you say Trae.   Now Trae doesn't have MVP numbers this year but he absolutely should have been in teh convo last year.   Makes me hate Memphis and Ja for no good reason.