League-Adjusted Shooting: Field Goals Added (or subtracted)

[marco102]

On 1/19/2023 at 9:55 PM, bleachkit said:

Best player on the planet and he doesn't even have a signature sneaker. 

I fear I'm going to lose our avatar bet on Trae's 3 point %.  Please be gentle 

[JeffS17]

All of these stats just show how dependent on free throws Trae is, which for me, is a very uncomfortable place to be knowing your fate is often in referees hands to blow the whistle or not.  @AHF and I have gone in circles on this before, but it's a reason I still value EFG% -- when you depend on free throws, you're at the whim of referees, their biases, their different styles, and their ability to allow more physical games or not (playoffs especially).

[bleachkit]

49 minutes ago, marco102 said:

I fear I'm going to lose our avatar bet on Trae's 3 point %.  Please be gentle 

You're toast my friend. 

[marco102]

10 minutes ago, bleachkit said:

You're toast my friend. 

I figured as much.

[TheNorthCydeRises]

3 hours ago, marco102 said:

I fear I'm going to lose our avatar bet on Trae's 3 point %.  Please be gentle 

Trae won't let you or ME down.

I'm not trying to lose 100 precious "basketball cards".

He needs to stop all of the stepback jumpers and just take shots in rhythm. 

[JayBirdHawk]

24 minutes ago, TheNorthCydeRises said:

Trae won't let you or ME down.

I'm not trying to lose 100 precious "basketball cards".

He needs to stop all of the stepback jumpers and just take shots in rhythm. 

What happened to just 'stepping into your shot' w/ hands at the ready.....now it's all stepbacks. 

[AHF]

3 hours ago, JeffS17 said:

All of these stats just show how dependent on free throws Trae is, which for me, is a very uncomfortable place to be knowing your fate is often in referees hands to blow the whistle or not.  @AHF and I have gone in circles on this before, but it's a reason I still value EFG% -- when you depend on free throws, you're at the whim of referees, their biases, their different styles, and their ability to allow more physical games or not (playoffs especially).

Trae shoots the same number of free throws in the playoffs than in the regular season.  (Slightly more.) Much less variation there than other shooting stats which almost always are lower in the playoffs when defenses are tighter.

Agree that there can be inconsistency in free throws from game to game but the same can be the case for almost any aspect of a player’s game.

[JeffS17]

57 minutes ago, AHF said:

Trae shoots the same number of free throws in the playoffs than in the regular season.  (Slightly more.) Much less variation there than other shooting stats which almost always are lower in the playoffs when defenses are tighter.

Agree that there can be inconsistency in free throws from game to game but the same can be the case for almost any aspect of a player’s game.

Yeah, but the missing stat which isn't really trackable is how many missed field goals are related to failed attempts at getting a whistle.  That's the root issue with being reliant on free throws and you can see it when you watch games.  It ultimately can be summarized as "shot selection" which is something that separates truly elite, efficient, scorers (KD, Steph, Jokic, Kawhi, etc.) from the rest.  Essentially, if Trae didn't make getting to the line such a core part of his game, he would have a lot fewer missed field goals so there is a trade-off there that should be acknowledged.  No real way to quantify that but it is there -- also, players that take technical free throws, get fouled at the end of games, etc. have slightly inflated TS% compared to others.

[marco102]

On 11/16/2023 at 2:52 PM, bleachkit said:

You're toast my friend. 

Not so fast!  Trae's made a comeback. 

 

 

Still not above 37.5% but he's getting close with 36.5%. 

[TheNorthCydeRises]

On 11/16/2023 at 4:55 PM, TheNorthCydeRises said:

Trae won't let you or ME down.

I'm not trying to lose 100 precious "basketball cards".

He needs to stop all of the stepback jumpers and just take shots in rhythm. 

 

Since the time I made this statement, Trae has shot 48% from 3.

And he's made a few of the step backs.

 

[Gray Mule]

Hawk's players shooting is like the tide, it goes in and out twice in 24 hours.

We can't have all players shooting their best at any time.  Some are hot.  Some are not.  Then, everything changes!

If Atlanta has everyone cold at the same time, they are an easy target.  If they ever have everyone hot at the same time, no one can touch them.  Such is the life of the Hawks and their fans here on the Squawk!

 

[TheNorthCydeRises]

On 11/16/2023 at 6:51 PM, JeffS17 said:

Yeah, but the missing stat which isn't really trackable is how many missed field goals are related to failed attempts at getting a whistle.  That's the root issue with being reliant on free throws and you can see it when you watch games.  It ultimately can be summarized as "shot selection" which is something that separates truly elite, efficient, scorers (KD, Steph, Jokic, Kawhi, etc.) from the rest.  Essentially, if Trae didn't make getting to the line such a core part of his game, he would have a lot fewer missed field goals so there is a trade-off there that should be acknowledged.  No real way to quantify that but it is there -- also, players that take technical free throws, get fouled at the end of games, etc. have slightly inflated TS% compared to others.

 

The reverse of this is how many times he doesn't get calls when he obviously gets fouled.  Or if a foul is called, they call it on the ground and not in the act of shooting.  Trae's FT rate could be even higher, if the refs called the game evenly.  They'll flat out let that dude get killed sometimes, just to keep him from racking up trips to the FT line.  Meanwhile, SGA gets any call he wants.

 

 

[bleachkit]

1 hour ago, marco102 said:

Not so fast!  Trae's made a comeback. 

 

 

Still not above 37.5% but he's getting close with 36.5%. 

Yes I've noticed! Good job Trae 

[AHF]

On 1/19/2023 at 6:19 PM, benhillboy said:

Lastly his comparison scores say what I’ve always been saying.  

Really, what is this?  After year 3 his closest comp was John freaking Stockton.  Rest assured Clyde Drexler, Kyrie, and Ray Allen will not be on this list next season and instead you’ll see some bums from the 90s maybe and some dudes you never heard of from the 70s as he’s trending toward about 7 win shares this season.  An analytic dive into his profile gives a simple answer: become a much more active participant in greasing the wheels of the offense instead of always trying to be the engine. [Note I moved this paragraph up so it would show in a quote - no content changed]

His wins shares don’t align with high usage winning guards at all:

 

 

Since we are just shy of a year later, I just figured I would note that Clyde Drexler, Kyrie Irving, and Ray Allen all remain on Trae's top comparison's on BR's chart in the exact same positions they were in last year.  (Actually the whole list is identical).  Notably, if you add up the win shares for everyone on his chart he outclasses all of them in combined win shares over 4 years (and is on a solid pace this year at 3.3 WS after less than 1/4 of a season).

I still think TS Added is the better metric here given the heavy diet of 3's and FTs that drive Trae's scoring.  Trae seems to be improving his standing for that number like he did last year but ahead of last year's pace (notwithstanding a worse start than last year early this season).  Fingers crossed that he keeps this up and finishes the season much closer to his career peak than last year's subpar scoring efficiency performance.

[benhillboy]

1 hour ago, AHF said:

Since we are just shy of a year later, I just figured I would note that Clyde Drexler, Kyrie Irving, and Ray Allen all remain on Trae's top comparison's on BR's chart in the exact same positions they were in last year.  (Actually the whole list is identical).  Notably, if you add up the win shares for everyone on his chart he outclasses all of them in combined win shares over 4 years (and is on a solid pace this year at 3.3 WS after less than 1/4 of a season).

I still think TS Added is the better metric here given the heavy diet of 3's and FTs that drive Trae's scoring.  Trae seems to be improving his standing for that number like he did last year but ahead of last year's pace (notwithstanding a worse start than last year early this season).  Fingers crossed that he keeps this up and finishes the season much closer to his career peak than last year's subpar scoring efficiency performance.

It is literally impossible for those scores to stay the same @AHF. BB-Ref didn’t update similarity scores this season: they usually do it in early August.  I was quite disappointed, I was anxious to see how Steph’s, Jimmy’s (I’m not okay with his top comp being Horace Grant but Kawhi’s top comp is Jimmy?), Bogi’s (his list really doesn’t do him justice) and Jokic’s changed as well: all exactly as they were last season.

Trae is still subtracting TS as well.  He dug such a hole for himself but he’s climbing out like a mug.  You simply don’t want to be on the absolute opposite end of the spectrum from Steph and Hally with dudes like Cade Cunningham and Jordan Poole.

Fun fact Shawn Marion is 93% similar to Giannis.  One of the most underrated of All Time that dude.

Edited December 4, 2023 by benhillboy

[AHF]

8 minutes ago, benhillboy said:

It is literally impossible for those scores to stay the same @AHF. BB-Ref didn’t update similarity scores this season: they usually do it in early August.  I was quite disappointed, I was anxious to see how Steph’s, Jimmy’s, Bogi’s (his list really doesn’t do him justice) and Jokic’s changed as well.

Fun fact Shawn Marion is 93% similar to Giannis.  One of the most underrated of All Time that dude.

Wonder why they didn't update.  Kind of strange.  I was thinking they might have used peak 4 seasons or something but it looks like they just haven't done anything with it.  Year 5 numbers would definitely shift things a bit and Trae would no longer have the career edge over Allen or Drexler.  He would maintain his edge over everyone else.

Ray Allen 13.7 WS

Clyde 13.2 WS

Majerle 9.3 WS

Blackmon 7.0 WS

Trae 6.7 WS

Norm Nixon 6.6 WS

Reggie Theus 6.5 WS

Phil Smith 5.2 WS

Kyrie 5.0 WS

Stu Lantz 1.4 WS

[benhillboy]

On 12/4/2023 at 5:40 PM, AHF said:

Wonder why they didn't update.  Kind of strange.  I was thinking they might have used peak 4 seasons or something but it looks like they just haven't done anything with it.  Year 5 numbers would definitely shift things a bit and Trae would no longer have the career edge over Allen or Drexler.  He would maintain his edge over everyone else.

Ray Allen 13.7 WS

Clyde 13.2 WS

Majerle 9.3 WS

Blackmon 7.0 WS

Trae 6.7 WS

Norm Nixon 6.6 WS

Reggie Theus 6.5 WS

Phil Smith 5.2 WS

Kyrie 5.0 WS

Stu Lantz 1.4 WS

I’ve called and emailed them about it, not holding my breath on an answer though.  They seemed to have updated similar players for the NFL so I don’t get the issue with basketball (shout to Daunte Culpepper, most similar to Mahomes).   I was surprised to hear a Brit on the recorded message

I wanted to see SGA’s update too.  No one on either his progressive arc nor career shape came anywhere close to his 11.4 last season.

Edited December 6, 2023 by benhillboy

[bleachkit]

4 hours ago, benhillboy said:

I’ve called and emailed them about it, not holding my breath on an answer though.  They seemed to have updated similar players for the NFL so I don’t get the issue with basketball (shout to Daunte Culpepper, most similar to Mahomes).   I was surprised to hear a Brit on the recorded message

I wanted to see SGA’s update too.  No one on either his progressive arc nor career shape came anywhere close to his 11.4 last season.

Shai is having an excellent year, with the second best +- in the NBA (+163)

[benhillboy]

6 hours ago, bleachkit said:

Shai is having an excellent year, with the second best +- in the NBA (+163)

He had a sixth sense for basketball even as a rookie.  It’s fascinating he can maximize his teammates while pressing his own shot so much, not really being great off the ball, and having mediocre three point shooting with well below average volume but he’s so confident and comfortable with the quirky style he’s developed.  His metrics benefit from another great young team build by Presti.

Edited December 6, 2023 by benhillboy

[AHF]

1 hour ago, benhillboy said:

He had a sixth sense for basketball even as a rookie.  It’s fascinating he can maximize his teammates while pressing his own shot so much, not really being great off the ball, and having mediocre three point shooting with well below average volume but he’s so confident and comfortable with the quirky style he’s developed.  His metrics benefit from another great young team build by Presti.

Looking forward to seeing how he does in the playoffs since he hasn't been in them since Chris Paul was leading the team.