2023-24 Insider Information Thread

[Diesel]

5 hours ago, AHF said:

 

Utah took on his $25M/year contract so I would assume they plan to give him plenty of PT.  If I had to give my prediction, I'd say they will be playing Lauri and JC together when they can and that actually works very nicely offensively.  I think JC can still be effective in PnR situations even without a superb PG just because he is so good at rim running.  If he isn't hindered by his health, I expect him to have significantly better numbers than last year.  And that is especially true for PER.  JC's PER was by far the worst of his career last year and a big part of that was health.  When he was healthier at the end of the season, he was also much better.  If he gets to do more attacking the rim, his TS% will rise (to be much more like the .620% it was after the All-Star break last year) which will pump his PER upwards.

I'm definitely open for bets for anyone who thinks he will have fewer win shares or a lower PER this year than last year.

I'm also totally open for bets for anyone who thinks he will be an All-Star next year.  That isn't happening.  If Utah gets a rep, it will be Lauri.

With the fallout in the West, look for Utah to secure maybe 3 allstars.

[Watchman]

10 hours ago, thecampster said:

Audible sigh.   Hey wait, does that reaction count as histrionics?

 

We had Collins, we were not a championship club. Nothing in his metrics or trends points to him being a championship type player. He was a net negative last year and has been all but 2 years of his career. That makes his impact average, not championship quality. That can't be your 2nd highest paid player. It just can't. 

 

I suggest you pour one out for Collins and move on.

Hate to tell you this, but no one we would be able to acquire will make us a championship team.  Quin will get tired of this mess after about three years, if not sooner, and will leave us just like he did with Utah.  KAT, Siakam (as I have been bombarded with), Gobert, Oden nor any of the other alleged targets we seek will make us a championship team.  The mid level players mentioned won't help us either.

Edited June 28, 2023 by Watchman

[kg01]

Vincent Goodwill, im pretty sure it was him, explained the Harden scenario a few days ago.  Said that Harden asked to be traded to PHI but HOU patently refused.  He told them he wanted a chance to chase a ring and they only agreed to send him there based on the promise that he'd return to HOU when his contract was up.  That was the plan.

The problem, as he explained, is the Udoka hiring.  He wants no part of Harden back in HOU, so that's the holdup.

If Harden ends up back there, it's probably a bad sign for HOU since it signifies the FO and coach are on vastly different pages.

[LarsV8]

Not sure on what happens with Lopez, haven't heard much from his camp. I do know is the Rockets have alot of money to throw at him, and he would likely be taking a big cut (vs what we would offer) if he returned to the Bucks. 

Its really unclear what Harden is going to do, but I agree, it could change their strategy. 

Regarding the pick situation, just a clarification, Houston only really has the Nets picks. They owe their own picks to OKC. 

[Diesel]

3 hours ago, JustSomeGuy said:

Everyone misses the point about the LT. It’s not about paying just to pay, Ressler has said continually that he would be willing to pay under the “right”’conditions. For the right team. 
 

Paying the LT for a non championship team is stupid and wasteful. 

Very simple minded error here.  If you take pieces away.. whether you think they have the right value or not, you take the team farther away from championship.   So you will never have to pay the LT.

I will call it the Belkin Rule.   Belkin wanted to have a team.  He wanted the team to win a championship.  But he wanted to run the team on the cheap with rookie contracts and cheap contracts until he got a mixture that could compete.  Otherwise, the plan was to hold on to rookies until they came up for the second contract and then to release them for more draft picks.   He wanted to keep the team exciting enough to keep fans in the seats. 

The only difference between Belkin and Ressler is Trae Young.  Trae proved that even with a team full of has beens and rookies that he can get us 2 games away from playing for the Chip.  The next step in the Belkin rule is a bit unknown.  That's why you had Us reuping the young guys.   Well, when we couldn't recreate that experience... we're salary dumping.  However, the mindset hasn't changed.  Somebody else mentioned it and I fully expect it that we will spend maybe 9-12 of the TPE and if we make no other trades, we come back saying.. well it takes 2 to tango and we tried to find the right deal.. blah blah blah. 

Landry's job in all of this is to find a winner in the 9-12 Million dollar range.  Somebody who can help us win.   However, we will encounter names like Delon,  Pritchard, Hartenstein, Boucher, Cody Martin, Mo Bamba, etc...

Landry's most important Job was to win on draft day.  I think he did that.   So the rest is we shall see until we trade DJM. 

[warcore]

15 minutes ago, Diesel said:

Utah will make him allstar level and in a few years, trade him off at the height of his value. 

this is what I hate... I just know they're going to wait a year or two when his contract looks better and get multiple 1sts for him

 

1 hour ago, bleachkit said:

The Gobert trade could go down as the worst in NBA history when it's all said and done. 

Kobe for Vlade

[JayBirdHawk]

11 minutes ago, Watchman said:

Oden

[NBASupes]

1 minute ago, LarsV8 said:

Not sure on what happens with Lopez, haven't heard much from his camp. I do know is the Rockets have alot of money to throw at him, and he would likely be taking a big cut (vs what we would offer) if he returned to the Bucks. 

Its really unclear what Harden is going to do, but I agree, it could change their strategy.

The Rockets run FA right now in terms of from a money perspective. You guys can really go big but there really aren't many true FAs out there. A lot of guys are going back to where they just played recently. I live in the Houston Area specifically in the same area as Harden and I haven't heard anything to make me think James isn't coming to HOU. I heard that Philly wants him back but I know people close to him as we stay in the same part of town strongly claim he's coming back (home). Maybe he doesn't but I believe he will. They didn't hire Ime for no reason and he didn't take that job to coach kids who have zero clue how to win. 

Lopez may listen to offers but he wants to go back and the Bucks want him back. It will be interesting if one of these guys is able to be flipped but it doesn't seem likely. 

My guess is Harden, a trade for Capela, and Dillon Brooks is what the Rocket will do this summer. 

Gives them 

Harden

Green

Brooks

Smith

Capela

Gives them time to develop Amen, Sengun, and Eason while developing Green and Smith into the role they will need to play moving forward once Amen takes over in time. 

[NBASupes]

The Utah/Minny deal was a massive overpay just like our Murray/SA deal. 

The only deal that was win/win was Mitchell to Cleveland for those draft assets and Lauri.

Minny got the better player but the fit was horrendous and that's where they failed. Then again, Atlanta did too. We traded three 1sts with a pick swap to a team that now has Victor Wembanyama. Disgusting! Honestly, our deal might be the worst. At the end of the day, Anthony Edwards is still a Wolve. 

[NBASupes]

15 minutes ago, kg01 said:

Vincent Goodwill, im pretty sure it was him, explained the Harden scenario a few days ago.  Said that Harden asked to be traded to PHI but HOU patently refused.  He told them he wanted a chance to chase a ring and they only agreed to send him there based on the promise that he'd return to HOU when his contract was up.  That was the plan.

The problem, as he explained, is the Udoka hiring.  He wants no part of Harden back in HOU, so that's the holdup.

If Harden ends up back there, it's probably a bad sign for HOU since it signifies the FO and coach are on vastly different pages.

LMAO! Ime was hired with Harden being pitched to him by both Stone/Fertitta. Vincent Goodwill or whomever you are getting it from has the wrong intel. Ime and Harden don't have any smoke. If he goes back to Philly, it will have nothing to do with Ime and he never ever told Houston during the trade period that he was coming back when traded to Brooklyn. This is bad, I had to look and check on who wrote this because I was like Sothron would never.  

[Watchman]

12 minutes ago, warcore said:

this is what I hate... I just know they're going to wait a year or two when his contract looks better and get multiple 1sts for him

 

Kobe for Vlade

Bill Russell (to Celtics) for Ed Macauley and Cliff Hagan (to Hawks).

[kg01]

2 minutes ago, NBASupes said:

LMAO! Ime was hired with Harden being pitched to him by both Stone/Fertitta. Vincent Goodwill or whomever you are getting it from has the wrong intel. Ime and Harden don't have any smoke. If he goes back to Philly, it will have nothing to do with Ime and he never ever told Houston during the trade period that he was coming back when traded to Brooklyn. This is bad, I had to look and check on who wrote this because I was like Sothron would never.  

Careful now.  We have a strict policy against this sort of thing ... 

And, as my post plainly states, I'm just passing along what the guy said on nbaradio.  I think he'll host again tomorrow so feel free to call in and call him a liar to his face.

[Diesel]

2 minutes ago, Watchman said:

Bill Russell (to Celtics) for Ed Macauley and Cliff Hagan (to Hawks).

Nawl...

Hagan became a 25/11 player.  Hall of Famer to boot.   St. Louis was Racist and it served them right to lose one of the best players in history.   But I don't think it was as bad as Vlade for Kobe. 

 

[Watchman]

25 minutes ago, JayBirdHawk said:

Sorry. I meant Ayton.

 

[Diesel]

Been Playing around with some nimbers for those of you who like that sorta thing....  Didn't feel like using picks but there might be some. 

[JayBirdHawk]

If you’re looking for more certainty about what the Hawks are thinking for next season, here’s a start:

• No surprise, but guard Dejounte Murray almost certainly is not going anywhere. Several teams have called about his availability but there have been indications for weeks that he’s well-liked by Fields and Snyder. It’s also highly improbable the Hawks could get enough assets in return that would be commensurate to what they gave up for last summer (including two unprotected first-round picks).

Each of the Hawks’ three draft picks — Kobe Bufkin, Mouhamed Gueye and Seth Lundy — said Monday that Murray contacted them immediately after the draft with congratulations and advice. That surprised no one, least of Fields. “I read that as a huge character trait of Dejounte Murray,” he said Monday.

Asked whether those traits impact on whether to keep Murray, Fields said, “I want Dejounte here. That’s a guy who has a ton of what we’re trying to build more with. I look at that and go, that’s what he’s always done, even from the day we traded for him. … I’ve told (teams) that he’s a guy we want to continue to build with.” The risk: Murray is not likely to sign an extension before testing the free-agent market.

https://theathletic.com/4641917/2023/06/26/atlanta-hawks-trade-john-collins/?source=nbatw

 

 

[RedDawg#8]

1 hour ago, kg01 said:

Vincent Goodwill, im pretty sure it was him, explained the Harden scenario a few days ago.  Said that Harden asked to be traded to PHI but HOU patently refused.  He told them he wanted a chance to chase a ring and they only agreed to send him there based on the promise that he'd return to HOU when his contract was up.  That was the plan.

The problem, as he explained, is the Udoka hiring.  He wants no part of Harden back in HOU, so that's the holdup.

If Harden ends up back there, it's probably a bad sign for HOU since it signifies the FO and coach are on vastly different pages.

Harden was traded to Brooklyn. Brooklyn sent him to Philly.

Not sure if that’s what you meant but thought it needed to be cleared up.

[NBASupes]

1 hour ago, kg01 said:

Careful now.  We have a strict policy against this sort of thing ... 

And, as my post plainly states, I'm just passing along what the guy said on nbaradio.  I think he'll host again tomorrow so feel free to call in and call him a liar to his face.

Whoever told him that was lying big time. Harden didn't leave HOU on some, I want to come back at some point shit. He was gone and didn't think he was coming back again outside of living there in the offseason. He fully committed to his move to Brooklyn. 

[RedDawg#8]

1 hour ago, Diesel said:

Very simple minded error here.  If you take pieces away.. whether you think they have the right value or not, you take the team farther away from championship.   So you will never have to pay the LT.

I will call it the Belkin Rule.   Belkin wanted to have a team.  He wanted the team to win a championship.  But he wanted to run the team on the cheap with rookie contracts and cheap contracts until he got a mixture that could compete.  Otherwise, the plan was to hold on to rookies until they came up for the second contract and then to release them for more draft picks.   He wanted to keep the team exciting enough to keep fans in the seats. 

The only difference between Belkin and Ressler is Trae Young.  Trae proved that even with a team full of has beens and rookies that he can get us 2 games away from playing for the Chip.  The next step in the Belkin rule is a bit unknown.  That's why you had Us reuping the young guys.   Well, when we couldn't recreate that experience... we're salary dumping.  However, the mindset hasn't changed.  Somebody else mentioned it and I fully expect it that we will spend maybe 9-12 of the TPE and if we make no other trades, we come back saying.. well it takes 2 to tango and we tried to find the right deal.. blah blah blah. 

Landry's job in all of this is to find a winner in the 9-12 Million dollar range.  Somebody who can help us win.   However, we will encounter names like Delon,  Pritchard, Hartenstein, Boucher, Cody Martin, Mo Bamba, etc...

Landry's most important Job was to win on draft day.  I think he did that.   So the rest is we shall see until we trade DJM. 

We ran the squad back after the ECF  and regressed in every sense of the word. We then traded away Huerter and got the same result we did with him here. Actually, we got further if you think about it.

We traded JC and I’m confident we make it back to the playoffs next season too.

You don’t keep a $200 million payroll just to keep running back a first round exit team.

We all agreed when Schlenk got here that we were on board with a rebuild so that we could get off the treadmill of an early exit playoff team. 

We tried twice after the ECF to catch lightning in a bottle again. Couldn’t do it.

We got further away from a championship even when we ran things back. We were not going to keep doing that. We have the ability to improve the roster today. We did not have that same ability with the payroll as it was.

When we hear a report that we turned down an opportunity to improve the roster because we didn’t want to spend money, then I will be mad.

We spent big on the DJM trade and people are already mad about that deal. People are mad about Trae’s contract. People were mad about JC’s contract. We have a bunch of guys making good money, but we accuse our leadership of being cheap. Got to make up our minds what we are going to be mad about.

 If a player is available to upgrade the roster, I believe we will pull the trigger. We have shown a willingness to move, shake and spend. We are not in the business of doing the same thing and expecting different outcomes. We are moving along to a new chapter 

[Diesel]

"We ran the squad back after the ECF  and regressed in every sense of the word. We then traded away Huerter and got the same result we did with him here. Actually, we got further if you think about it.

We traded JC and I’m confident we make it back to the playoffs next season too."

We regressed due to injury and sickness.  We panicked after losing to Miami.  We didn't take the time to look at our squad and figure out the real problem.   The misuse of certain players in Nate's System.   Nate lacked the creativity to coach this game at this time.   He took us from a movement team to a stand around team. 

Without JC, we could make it back to the playoffs.  However, our impatience led us to a deal that we will regret later. 

You don’t keep a $200 million payroll just to keep running back a first round exit team.

There are better ways to alleviate that.  You don't just do that kind of salary dump and expect for better. 

We tried twice after the ECF to catch lightning in a bottle again. Couldn’t do it.

Guess what didn't change?  The system of offense.   So now, we're definitely changing the offense to  a system that is designed by our coach and we trade away one of our most diverse players for TPE.   It's still going to work but it could have worked better. 

We spent big on the DJM trade and people are already mad about that deal. People are mad about Trae’s contract. People were mad about JC’s contract. We have a bunch of guys making good money, but we accuse our leadership of being cheap. Got to make up our minds what we are going to be mad about.

The big thing about winning teams and Championship teams is CULTURE.   We just watched Miami go from the 8th Seed to the finals while missing key players for most of the playoffs because they have a developed Culture.  The Culture in Atlanta is the same losing Culture.   We think that the answer is in saving money and being in the draft.   You talk about our failed 2 years after the ECF.. Well, tell me how you feel about the other 53 years (well 52) that we have experienced without a chip?  Let me tell you, what frustrates some of us long term fans (I know you're a newbie) is that we have seen this movie before. 

GM comes in...  Cleans house.  Declares the answer is in younger players that can be developed.   And we get no further than we have been before. 

After Kasten..   There was Babcock  then there was Knight then there was Sund (but he don't count) then there was Ferry then there was Travis, and now there is Landry. 

Kasten got us Nique and Tree.   Babcock got us Doc and a whole lot of others.  Knight got us Joe Johnson, Josh Smith, Al Horford, and Jeff Teague.    Ferry got us Milsap, Korver.  Travis got us Trae.  So we have seen this movie.  That's why nobody believes Ressler when he says he will pay the LT.   We've seen this movie.  In this movie, he doesn't pay the LT.  He keeps chopping off the contracts so that he can reup some of the young guys... and then he will start chopping their contracts.   He is doing this with hopes of keeping an exciting product on the floor.  IF we win a chip O great, his plan worked.  If we don't, well we tried  and we held on to the best talent. 

But where have you seen Championship teams do what we have done?  Golden State could have easily trade Klay.   He's been injured.  He's not as good as we was.  Hell, they had more reason to trade him than we had to trade JC.   98% chance that he finishes a Warrior.   Why?  Culture.  They know how to win. 

Do we know how to win?  We have tried it for 55 years and haven't succeeded.  What must our culture be?