2023-24 Insider Information Thread

[AHF]

10 hours ago, JeffS17 said:

My point started with having $50M tied up in 3 centers, none of which can share the court with one another, doesn't make sense... I gave hypothetical scenarios where we trade for a stretch 5 backup (among a backup PG, or PF, or wing depth) that would all make more sense roster construction wise.  You have way more versatility with your rotations when your strongest bench players are wings or versatile PFs. I believe I also mentioned a consolidation trade could make sense for the right player. 

But moving forward with Capela and OO on the roster, however, does not make any sense.  I'd be willing to bet a lifetime flair bet that both Capela and OO will not be on the roster at the start of the 2024-2025 season, because I have that much conviction how little sense keeping both of them on the roster (after OO is paid) makes.  And I have faith that our FO will be using the same logic and reasoning I'm putting forward.  So sometime between now and game 1 of the 2024-2025 season, either Capela or OO will be traded.  We can debate whether or not that happens, but to me it is inevitable.  The only scenario where I could see them both on the roster is if OO turns into a PF over the course of this season, but that is extremely low likelihood.

We are talking about a single season with both of them getting paid together, right?  I agree that isn't ideal but then it becomes about what the roster looks like in the less than ideal situation of carrying both CC and OO for that single season versus what the roster looks like in a trade scenario.  The latter is an unknown.  

I'll circle back to you on a potential bet on this as I think the team's appetite to carry both of them will depend on how we perform more than whether OO converts into a full-time PF (which I agree is very unlikely to happen).

[JayBirdHawk]

14 hours ago, JeffS17 said:

But moving forward with Capela and OO on the roster, however, does not make any sense. 

Again, I'm not saying do not trade him, just that the return needs to make sense on the court and it should not be just to have OO start and to avoid the tax like we've done with Huerter and Collins.

These are the kinds of made up trade ideas I'm seeing floated which does nothing for me:

 

[theheroatl]

56 minutes ago, JayBirdHawk said:

Again, I'm not saying do not trade him, just that the return needs to make sense on the court and it should not be just to have OO start and to avoid the tax like we've done with Huerter and Collins.

These are the kinds of made up trade ideas I'm seeing floated which does nothing for me:

 

 

There are a lot of questions that need to be answered to use a package of CC, Hunter or Bey, and something else to upgrade either SF or PF.

I think keeping OO, DJM, and Trae is a solid solid core.

It's these combo of players to decide who rises to the top and stays with big money or who is shipped out:

JJ
CC
Hunter
Bey 

 

I think by trade deadline we better have a plan of who we are surrounding Trae-DJM-OO with.

 

Edited October 20, 2023 by theheroatl

[JayBirdHawk]

25 minutes ago, theheroatl said:

 

There are a 

It's these combo of players to decide who rises to the top and stays with big money or who is shipped out:

JJ
CC
Hunter
Bey 

I think by trade deadline we better have a plan of who we are surrounding Trae-DJM-OO with.

 

If we look back to way earlier in this thread from the insiders, there was always talk about the vets and their salaries and trading them. I think it breaks down like this:

CC @ $20 mil vs OO at Center

Dre @ $20 mil vs Bey and/or AJ at SF

Bogi @ $18 mil vs AJ and Kobe at SG

As long as there is a mandate to stay under the Luxury Tax, it'll be rinse and repeat.

[theheroatl]

1 minute ago, JayBirdHawk said:

If we look back to way earlier in this thread from the insiders, there was always talk about the vets and their salaries and trading them. I think it breaks down like this:

CC @ $20 mil vs OO at Center

Dre @ $20 mil vs Bey and/or AJ at SF

Bogi @ $18 mil vs AJ and Kobe at SG

As long as there is a mandate to stay under the Luxury Tax, it'll be rinse and repeat.

It’s not about the tax, it’s about asset management.

You need Bey, Dre, AJ, JJ, and Kobe to develop further.

CC is an established asset. 

All these players together will mean some don’t like their playing time. For example JJ Dre and Bey… 20 mins per guy is gonna cause friction.

By trade deadline, figure out the best developed guys and package the rest in a consolidation move for an all-star.

[Final_quest]

1 hour ago, JayBirdHawk said:

Again, I'm not saying do not trade him, just that the return needs to make sense on the court and it should not be just to have OO start and to avoid the tax like we've done with Huerter and Collins.

These are the kinds of made up trade ideas I'm seeing floated which does nothing for me:

 

Where is this idea from?

I kind of agree with Jeff.  I don't take issue with stating a concept that Capela and Okongwu are not going to fit together long term which means Capela is more likely to be traded. 

A GM who actually talks to other GMs is responsible to find the trade package.  A fan take stating the obvious, Capela and Okongwu rotation won't work, isn't negated if I can't think of a trade proposal other fans like.  

[Wretch]

On 10/17/2023 at 9:47 AM, macdaddy said:

Seems to me the first half of the season is an extended tryout for Hunter, Jalen, OO, AJ.   Are they the future or are they expendable. 

On 10/17/2023 at 3:53 PM, JeffS17 said:

OO is probably going to be making ~$20-25M next year.  I don't think it makes sense at all to have $50M tied up in your center rotation, despite the lineup versatility people have mentioned.  The intuitive move is to trade Clint, full stop.  Unless we want to hang on to him until his value declines with age and injuries, like we did with JC.  You have to be willing to part with valuable assets when they are still valuable if you want to field a competitive roster year after year, especially at a position we have a starter-ready player eager for the role.

Yup and I've said over and over again...  

• To get something you have to give something
• Potential has an expiration date
• Timing is EVERYTHING

At some point, you need to have some things figured out or you need to sell high.  There's no evaluation.  Not really.  It's just rolling the dice on depreciation because if we see them as expendable after a full evaluation then so does everybody else. 

This isn't such a big deal in year 1 or 2.  We typically see these guys as just needing time and room to grow.  Where players like OO and Hunter are, that's a different story....and a questionable oversight in the case of JJ.

[AHF]

1 hour ago, Final_quest said:

Where is this idea from?

I kind of agree with Jeff.  I don't take issue with stating a concept that Capela and Okongwu are not going to fit together long term which means Capela is more likely to be traded. 

A GM who actually talks to other GMs is responsible to find the trade package.  A fan take stating the obvious, Capela and Okongwu rotation won't work, isn't negated if I can't think of a trade proposal other fans like.  

The Capela / OO rotation is fine for this year so you have time to find the trade.  There is nothing other than salary that makes that rotation a problem and that is a future not a present problem.  This year, they cost a combined $29M.  That is nice value for the two of them. 

It is stupid to take a bad trade just to deal with the cap implications of next year's roster when there is so much time and so many permutations that can fix that problem (including our owner deciding to pay the tax; a trade for a big name player where a salary like CC's is needed along with other assets; a good return on one or the other, etc.).  My point is that there is no hurry on this.  Have conversations with other teams and make deals that return good value.  

Even if you can't move CC it doesn't mean you are in a death knell next season.  You might have to eat his $22M as a premium second center but that isn't that outrageous.  Plenty of playoff teams are eating comparable salaries for less productive players.

[JayBirdHawk]

14 minutes ago, AHF said:

The Capela / OO rotation is fine for this year so you have time to find the trade.  There is nothing other than salary that makes that rotation a problem and that is a future not a present problem.  This year, they cost a combined $29M.  That is nice value for the two of them. 

It is stupid to take a bad trade just to deal with the cap implications of next year's roster when there is so much time and so many permutations that can fix that problem (including our owner deciding to pay the tax; a trade for a big name player where a salary like CC's is needed along with other assets; a good return on one or the other, etc.).  My point is that there is no hurry on this.  Have conversations with other teams and make deals that return good value.  

Even if you can't move CC it doesn't mean you are in a death knell next season.  You might have to eat his $22M as a premium second center but that isn't that outrageous.  Plenty of playoff teams are eating comparable salaries for less productive players.

It's like we didn't see this play out with moving Huerter too soon and having to play Justin Holiday and the effect it had on the product on the floor.

[AHF]

17 minutes ago, JayBirdHawk said:

It's like we didn't see this play out with moving Huerter too soon and having to play Justin Holiday and the effect it had on the product on the floor.

I would also assume that Landry is working closely with Snyder on things.  If the Coach doesn't want CC moved right now, I'd let that play out some too.  We just aren't really under any pressure right now.  No reason not to explore potential trades but this isn't a "move it or lose it" situation especially if all the currently available trades are already "lose it" offers.

[ABH]

Remember clint is working on his jumpshot..

[Diesel]

2 hours ago, Final_quest said:

I don't take issue with stating a concept that Capela and Okongwu are not going to fit together long term

Why not?

This concept is one devised to suggest trading CC to make room for OO.  However, what's the evidence that it won't work?

[Diesel]

2 hours ago, Wretch said:

You have to be willing to part with valuable assets when they are still valuable if you want to field a competitive roster year after year

This is the same BS that Babcock used to preach. 

It was his reasoning for trading Nique.

Nah... No thank you. 

 

[Wretch]

5 hours ago, Diesel said:

This is the same BS that Babcock used to preach. 

It was his reasoning for trading Nique.

Nah... No thank you. 

 

You know that I have zero love for Babcock, so we're probably talking past each other here.  We're talking about two different kind of players dude.  I'm not talking about established franchise players.  I'm talking exclusively about young players with "potential."  At what point do you consider making a deal? 

Specifically, I'm calling out the sacred cow mentality.

[Diesel]

10 minutes ago, Wretch said:

You know that I have zero love for Babcock, so we're probably talking past each other here.  We're talking about two different kind of players dude.  I'm not talking about established franchise players.  I'm talking exclusively about young players with "potential."  At what point do you consider making a deal? 

Specifically, I'm calling out the sacred cow mentality.

Let's say you do have a valuable asset... and you have a young player with great potential behind him.   You consider making the trade when you can get equal or better value for the valuable asset.    This will end trades of Kevin Huerter and John Collins for nothing.  If a player is detrimental to the team.. then yes, trade him for what you can get.  But if the player is productive and have value, it doesn't make sense to trade him to make room for another player that is not there yet.  Even if the second player is there, you don't just trade the valuable player for BS. 

For instance... Back in the Day, the Lakers had Kobe Bryant.  They also had Eddie Jones.  They co-existed until it was clear that Kobe was ready and then after that until they could get a good trade for Jones.   They traded Jones and Elden Campbell for Glen Rice, J.R. Reid, and B.J. Armstrong.   This trade speaks to the legend of Jerry West as a GM.   He could have traded Jones for Hair grease and lint and draft picks but instead, he traded him for a player that he felt would help them get closer to a chip.  That should be GMing 101 for all armchair GMs who believe that you have to "Make room" for a star.   If a player is a star, his game will make the room. 

 

 

 

 

[Wretch]

27 minutes ago, Diesel said:

Let's say you do have a valuable asset... and you have a young player with great potential behind him.   You consider making the trade when you can get equal or better value for the valuable asset.

[JayBirdHawk]

Every NBA Team's Top 3 Trade Assets

Atlanta Hawks

Top Assets

• AJ Griffin
• De'Andre Hunter
• 2029 first-round pick

Rookie-scale wings are always coveted, and Griffin has real scoring chops, both as a complementary shooter and on-ball creator. His defense needs to tick up, but with three years of cost-controlled money left on his deal, he's critical to any blockbuster trade the Atlanta Hawks might pursue.

Hunter isn't necessarily in the same camp. His shot has proved come-and-go, he's solid-yet-unspectacular on defense, and the four-year, $90 million extension he signed last year kicks in this season. Even so, he fills the three-and-D archetype. The money might be a tad steep, but it also may never take up 15 percent of the salary cap.

Rounding out the asset trio is a distant first-rounder. Short-circuiting the long-term future of an aggressively unexceptional team is never a bad idea. This pick, which stretches to 2029 because of Atlanta's 2027 obligation to San Antonio, holds more appeal than Kobe Bufkin, the soon-to-be-more-expensive Onyeka Okongwu, Jalen Johnson, Saddiq Bey (extension-eligible), Bogdan Bogdanović or Clint Capela.

Include Dejounte Murray (trade-eligible after Jan. 8th or Trae Young if you're so inclined. Barring disaster, the Hawks profile as buyers. Improving your title chances while moving either of them is unlikely.

-Dan Favale

https://bleacherreport.com/articles/10092925-every-nba-teams-top-3-trade-assets

[Final_quest]

13 hours ago, Diesel said:

Why not?

This concept is one devised to suggest trading CC to make room for OO.  However, what's the evidence that it won't work?

It does work on the court, until you have to pay both guys a starter salary.  Then you have as much money tied up in Capela and OO as the Nuggets do with Jokic.  But I agree that we don't need to rush into making a move.  

For those saying it would be Huerter and Justin Holiday all over again.  At least we got an asset for Huerter.  We waited too long for Collins and got nothing.  Capela is a diminishing asset.  As time goes on the return goes down.  

That being said I still think Capela is better than Okongwu today.  Okongwu just has more to offer over the long term.  

[Final_quest]

18 hours ago, AHF said:

The Capela / OO rotation is fine for this year so you have time to find the trade.  There is nothing other than salary that makes that rotation a problem and that is a future not a present problem.  This year, they cost a combined $29M.  That is nice value for the two of them. 

It is stupid to take a bad trade just to deal with the cap implications of next year's roster when there is so much time and so many permutations that can fix that problem (including our owner deciding to pay the tax; a trade for a big name player where a salary like CC's is needed along with other assets; a good return on one or the other, etc.).  My point is that there is no hurry on this.  Have conversations with other teams and make deals that return good value.  

Even if you can't move CC it doesn't mean you are in a death knell next season.  You might have to eat his $22M as a premium second center but that isn't that outrageous.  Plenty of playoff teams are eating comparable salaries for less productive players.

Where do we get the idea that the perfect trade will be available for us at the exact time we want to make a trade?  We can fantasize about the perfect Capela trade coming to our door step after this season, but they probably started those conversations last summer.  You make the trade whenever we get an offer we like.  

We tried to move Collins for like 3 years and never got an offer that moved us and ended up with zero.  My view is you stay active in talks along the way and jump when the return is good.  

[JayBirdHawk]

From my recollection, the closet rumored Clint trade was prior to the draft with Dallas:

CC($20 mil, $22 mil) and #15 for Bertans ($17 mil, guaranteed $5 mil next year) and #10...that's using CC to move up 5 spots AND take on Bertans 'bad' contract plus take on McGee's contract for this and next season. Hawks passed and rightly so and asked for additional compensation in either Hardy or Green. Dallas declined, talks stalled.