I hope the Siakam deal fails to go through.

[AHF]

2 hours ago, JeffS17 said:

Capela would be the only player that would not provide spacing in the lineup, and he is the primary roll man anyways, so the floor would be maximally spaced.

What lineup are you envisioning that is maximally spaced?

I don't see this as maximally spaced:

Trae

DM

Hunter

Siakam

CC

I see that as a lineup that is problematic in terms of three point volume and accuracy.

Trae covers volume but is below average 3 years, average 1 year, and above average 1 year for an overall below average 35.1% career 3pt%

DM is below average for both volume and accuracy.  (34.4% last year and worse for career)

Hunter is below average for volume and average for accuracy.  (35.6% career, 35.0% last year)

Siakam is below average for volume and accuracy.  (32.7% career, 32.4% last year)

CC zero threat.

 

If I am an opposing coach, I am leaving Siakam open from 3, focusing the defense on Trae, and living with any 3's that DM and Hunter get.  Neither of them is going to go crazy and kill the opponent from 3 more than a couple of times per season max.

I see that team as spacing impaired.  But maybe you are envisioning something that presents better spacing like:

Trae

Bogi

Bey

Siakam

CC

 

(FYI - I'd consider 2 3ptM and 36% 3pt% to be average for a floor spreader.)

[Diesel]

35 minutes ago, Final_quest said:

It seems the NBA executives don't agree.  Teams are willing to give up significant assets for Siakam where Collins is/was a salary dump. 

I don't know how you have come to that conclusion seeing that the trade waters for Siakam dissipated.   And considering the statement that we balked at a trade for Siakam because of the conclusion of a rookie we got late in the draft's first round. 

That doesn't seem like willing to me. 

 

[kg01]

2 hours ago, Final_quest said:

It seems the NBA executives don't agree.  Teams are willing to give up significant assets for Siakam where Collins is/was a salary dump. 

If this was true, he wouldn't be a raptor rn.  Prove me wrong.... 

[AtLaS]

8 hours ago, Final_quest said:

If Siakam doesn't work because he "can't shoot", how is Jalen supposed to be the answer?

Jalen is making $3m this year and we don't have to give up anything to play him.  He's also 21 years old.  

For Siakam we have to sell the farm and pay him 50m+ next offseason to keep him since he will be a UFA.  

If we trade for Siakam we need to trade for Miles Turner next.

[AHF]

14 minutes ago, kg01 said:

If this was true, he wouldn't be a raptor rn.  Prove me wrong.... 

If he gets traded that will prove you wrong because he will get traded for valuable consideration not dumped in salary dump deal like Huerter and JC.  It was reported that the Hawks offered real value in a trade for him already but I'm assuming you wouldn't buy that as proof.  Assuming that is the case, there won't be proof until he is traded so we'll have to wait.

IMO, the real he is still a Raptor is not because there is no interest for him.  The reason is that Toronto wants a deal as if he wasn't on an expiring contract with no promise to resign with whatever team trades for him and other teams aren't that stupid.  Thus,  it is not whether he has value it is about how much value which leaves Toronto in that very awkward position of not wanting to extend him but also not happy with any of the trade offers they've gotten to date.  At some point, they will have to **** or get off the pot but that doesn't truly come to a head until the trade deadline.

[AtLaS]

2 hours ago, JeffS17 said:

No one is suggesting you don't need good shooters to contend.  Anyone can look at the Raptors from last year and see that.  But, you've misrepresented my argument and then provided a counter-argument to something I never said.  What I said is you don't need 4 above average 3P shooters in the starting lineup to compete.  3 is fine.  It's also not a genuine approach to look at a player and deem them a shooter or not -- Siakam is serviceable from beyond the arc -- as I stated before, to a degree that you cannot leave him wide open or sag off him.  Capela would be the only player that would not provide spacing in the lineup, and he is the primary roll man anyways, so the floor would be maximally spaced.

I think that's where we disagree.  Trae wasn't an above average 3pt shooter last year.  Murray isn't an above average 3pt shooter.  Hunter is maybe average at best.  

If you look at our 3pt% rankings against the league, Hunter is the 113th best by %, Murray is 118th, Bey is 99th, Trae is 130th.  That's horrible.  

Only Bogi is in the top 30 (he's 29th) and you can't start Bogi with Trae/DJM.  

Then you add Capela who is absolutely useless outside of 5 feet.  

The lane will be clogged and teams will force us to make open 3s, which we don't consistently do well.  Better shooting teams will beat us, period.  

Now, if we had Curry/Klay at the 1 and 2, then you can get away with only having 3 of 5 shooters.

If we had Myles Turner or KAT at the 5 instead of Capela, then we could add Siakam to this roster just fine.  But we don't.  The fit is bad unless many other subsequent moves are made, IMO.

[Diesel]

1 hour ago, AtLaS said:

I think that's where we disagree.  Trae wasn't an above average 3pt shooter last year.  Murray isn't an above average 3pt shooter.  Hunter is maybe average at best.  

If you look at our 3pt% rankings against the league, Hunter is the 113th best by %, Murray is 118th, Bey is 99th, Trae is 130th.  That's horrible.  

Only Bogi is in the top 30 (he's 29th) and you can't start Bogi with Trae/DJM.  

Then you add Capela who is absolutely useless outside of 5 feet.  

The lane will be clogged and teams will force us to make open 3s, which we don't consistently do well.  Better shooting teams will beat us, period.  

Now, if we had Curry/Klay at the 1 and 2, then you can get away with only having 3 of 5 shooters.

If we had Myles Turner or KAT at the 5 instead of Capela, then we could add Siakam to this roster just fine.  But we don't.  The fit is bad unless many other subsequent moves are made, IMO.

@JeffS17  I can't say it better than @AtLaS said above. 

Having players that can space the floor is a necessity.   We don't really have that.    That was my point.   We have average at best shooters.   When we had JC, his three point shooting (when he was healthy) was good enough to keep teams honest and open the floor for Trae to work.   Siakam won't give us that.    That's why I favor putting Bey in at Starting PF.   I don't pretend to know how Snyder will run the offense but if it requires shooting from our bigs.. there's no need to go out and get Siakam unless there are other moves as has been said. 

 

[JeffS17]

I think you guys are all conflating historical shooting percentages with have shooting talent.  Getting open shots is what Quin is here for.  And practicing efficient shots (3P shots).  The talent is already there... I assume you guys are not going to all be surprised when Quin puts an actual offense in place and everyones shooting percentages suddenly increase?  Siakams would too if he were traded here.

[Final_quest]

4 hours ago, kg01 said:

If this was true, he wouldn't be a raptor rn.  Prove me wrong.... 

No thanks, don’t really care.  You honestly believe there weren’t good offers for Siakam? It seemed like that was the story this past summer.  

[JeffS17]

6 hours ago, AHF said:

What lineup are you envisioning that is maximally spaced?

I don't see this as maximally spaced:

Trae

DM

Hunter

Siakam

CC

I see that as a lineup that is problematic in terms of three point volume and accuracy.

Trae covers volume but is below average 3 years, average 1 year, and above average 1 year for an overall below average 35.1% career 3pt%

DM is below average for both volume and accuracy.  (34.4% last year and worse for career)

Hunter is below average for volume and average for accuracy.  (35.6% career, 35.0% last year)

Siakam is below average for volume and accuracy.  (32.7% career, 32.4% last year)

CC zero threat.

 

If I am an opposing coach, I am leaving Siakam open from 3, focusing the defense on Trae, and living with any 3's that DM and Hunter get.  Neither of them is going to go crazy and kill the opponent from 3 more than a couple of times per season max.

I see that team as spacing impaired.  But maybe you are envisioning something that presents better spacing like:

Trae

Bogi

Bey

Siakam

CC

 

(FYI - I'd consider 2 3ptM and 36% 3pt% to be average for a floor spreader.)

Hunter would go out in a Siakam deal.  Bey would start at SF.  That's plenty of 3P shooting... volume comes from coaching, not players, anyways.  Siakam can shoot well from beyond the arc and he has in past seasons -- before the Raptors started making him do literally everything.  He shot 37% from three in his season as second option behind Kawhi.  I'd expect something similar playing with Trae and under Snyder -- unless the argument is his shot form has somehow regressed and is functionally worse now (like JCs finger). 

We just watched DJ shoot more 3s and at better accuracy playing with Trae (and mostly before Quin arrived as well), so I see now reason a guy who has proven he can shoot efficiently from beyond the arc would not do so under a coaching staff asking that of him.  You cannot compare first option shooting percentages and try to apply that to a lineup where a player will be second option.  Siakam's focus the past few seasons has been rebounding, trying to play center, playmaking, and defense.  We know what Quin will have him prioritizing.

[Diesel]

2 hours ago, JeffS17 said:

I think you guys are all conflating historical shooting percentages with have shooting talent.  Getting open shots is what Quin is here for.  And practicing efficient shots (3P shots).  The talent is already there... I assume you guys are not going to all be surprised when Quin puts an actual offense in place and everyones shooting percentages suddenly increase?  Siakams would too if he were traded here.

I believe you can say the same thing about Nurse in Toronto.   And Nurse had done something that Snyder has yet to do, win a chip.   So a championship coach was there to create an offense that created open shots.   With Siakim as his PF.. what happened?

 

[Diesel]

1 minute ago, Diesel said:

what happened?

What happened is somebody confused conflation with shooting talent.  Or maybe they ignored Historical shooting percentage and said it's all on the coaches scheme anyway. 

It's a GM's argument.   The GM Mucks up a team by putting together a bunch of non-shooters and pins it all on the coach to make it work by having an offense that creates open shots.   Yes... The shooting percentage matter @JeffS17.  That's why true 3&D guys go for a premium.  

Think about your best shooters...

 

IF we took this list and consider those who shot more than 300 attempts... a little less that 4 3pters per game for a 82 game season.  Which of these players are on losing teams?  Maybe Kispert is the only one.   Maybe McDermott is the other. 

 

 

 

[kg01]

2 hours ago, Final_quest said:

No thanks, don’t really care.  You honestly believe there weren’t good offers for Siakam? It seemed like that was the story this past summer.  

Nope.  If there were, he wouldn't be a Raptor.  Period. 

Yall vastly underestimate the impact his contract situation has on his value.  He's a good player in a vacuum.  When you factor in what he wants to be paid, he's an EZPass. 

[Spud2nique]

7 hours ago, kg01 said:

He's a good player in a vacuum.

He’s pretty great… say it..  

[AHF]

11 hours ago, JeffS17 said:

I think you guys are all conflating historical shooting percentages with have shooting talent.  Getting open shots is what Quin is here for.  And practicing efficient shots (3P shots).  The talent is already there... I assume you guys are not going to all be surprised when Quin puts an actual offense in place and everyones shooting percentages suddenly increase?  Siakams would too if he were traded here.

I'll cop to that.  I'm using historical shooting percentages as the best predictor of future shooting percentages.  I do have optimism for better efficiency under Snyder but a coach can only do so much.

10 hours ago, JeffS17 said:

Hunter would go out in a Siakam deal.  Bey would start at SF.  That's plenty of 3P shooting... volume comes from coaching, not players, anyways.  Siakam can shoot well from beyond the arc and he has in past seasons -- before the Raptors started making him do literally everything.  He shot 37% from three in his season as second option behind Kawhi.  I'd expect something similar playing with Trae and under Snyder -- unless the argument is his shot form has somehow regressed and is functionally worse now (like JCs finger). 

We just watched DJ shoot more 3s and at better accuracy playing with Trae (and mostly before Quin arrived as well), so I see now reason a guy who has proven he can shoot efficiently from beyond the arc would not do so under a coaching staff asking that of him.  You cannot compare first option shooting percentages and try to apply that to a lineup where a player will be second option.  Siakam's focus the past few seasons has been rebounding, trying to play center, playmaking, and defense.  We know what Quin will have him prioritizing.

This is where I really diverge from you.  It isn't that I think we can't see some improvement as a team or that individual players can't have a spike in 3pt% but it is that I don't think we can count on everyone having a massive increase in their accuracy.

You say Siakam can shoot well from beyond the arc but past performance tells me he isn't very good.  3pt shooting is one of the more volatile stats season to season but the last 3 years have been terrible.  29.7%, 34.4%, and 32.4%.  Ugly.  You should just let him have that shot unless he is going to get dramatically more efficient.  Even in his very best seasons he is only solid from 3 (for me 36% is not great but is average) and I'm skeptical that he suddenly becomes an effective 3pt shooter because he is the second option.  

DJ is also not a good 3pt shooter.  You say you see that he can shoot efficiently but he shot a mere 34.4% last season which is bad.  That is a 51.6% TS% which is super ugly (you rarely draw free throws on 3's).  That is Russell Westbrook in a bad season terrible.  The rest of his scoring was much more productive with his 3pt shooting dragging his overall efficiency down.

For that matter, there is risk with Bey as well.  He needs to maintain the increased corner 3's if he wants to sustain  his great shooting in Atlanta.  He was a great 40% in Atlanta last season but a terrible 34.5% in Detroit.  I expect him to be closer to the Atlanta side of that going forward (which means other won't be able to camp in the corner like he will often do) but there is significant risk that 40% isn't sustainable for a guy who is a career 36.1% shooter.

 

I just think you are counting on a lot of dominos to fall to make the spacing work in a Trae, DM, Bey, Siakam, CC lineup.  CC is the big challenge for me.  For example, CC has ripple effects on Siakam as well by clogging up the lane where Siakam wants to drive or by freeing up a defender when CC exits the lane to open it up.  The problem is that usually a lethal big man opens the floor for others but CC just isn't that threatening so it isn't like he draws a double and the team ends up with an open 3 or something. 

When you don't have plus 3pt shooting around the lineup I think there is a cap on how good your offense can be and we need a bunch of things to hit for that lineup to turn from "sub par to average 3pt threats" to "maximal spacing."

(I'll note that if Hunter is traded it also opens up a hole guarding big wings on defense but that is a different topic.)

[Final_quest]

10 hours ago, kg01 said:

Nope.  If there were, he wouldn't be a Raptor.  Period. 

Yall vastly underestimate the impact his contract situation has on his value.  He's a good player in a vacuum.  When you factor in what he wants to be paid, he's an EZPass. 

I actually believe the reports that Toronto mishandled assessing his trade market vs the idea that no one made a good offer.  From what @Sothron said it sounded like if the fans think he's the best player in Canada that could mean they think he's one of the greatest players alive. 

That being said the Siakam discussion is a dead horse that has been discussed from every angle.  Some of us like the idea and some don't.  

[macdaddy]

23 minutes ago, Final_quest said:

I actually believe the reports that Toronto mishandled assessing his trade market vs the idea that no one made a good offer.  From what @Sothron said it sounded like if the fans think he's the best player in Canada that could mean they think he's one of the greatest players alive. 

That being said the Siakam discussion is a dead horse that has been discussed from every angle.  Some of us like the idea and some don't.  

being an expiring, him wanting a huge deal, and also saying he doesn't want to be anywhere but Toronto made it a tough sell and a risky move for other teams. 

[kg01]

32 minutes ago, Final_quest said:

I actually believe the reports that Toronto mishandled assessing his trade market vs the idea that no one made a good offer.  From what @Sothron said it sounded like if the fans think he's the best player in Canada that could mean they think he's one of the greatest players alive. 

That being said the Siakam discussion is a dead horse that has been discussed from every angle.  Some of us like the idea and some don't.  

Agree on the last bit.  Let's stop fighting among ourselves and turn this aggression toward conquering Canadia like we should've years ago.  Who's with me?! 

[JeffS17]

3 hours ago, AHF said:

When you don't have plus 3pt shooting around the lineup I think there is a cap on how good your offense can be and we need a bunch of things to hit for that lineup to turn from "sub par to average 3pt threats" to "maximal spacing."

Do you think we had good 3P shooting last year?  We had DM last year at your "Russell Westbrook in a bad terrible season" percentages, Trae shooting pitifully from 3, JC shooting 29%, Hunter shooting 35%, and we only had Bey for 25 games.  Oh, and Bogi only played 54 games.

...yet we had the 7th highest rated offense in the league.  So to your comment that there is a cap on how good your offense can be without plus 3P shooting, that cap is at a minimum, 7th best offense for us going into next season.  And I think we both agree JC being gone is an improvement to 3P shooting, and we both agree that Bey is a plus shooter, and Bogi, who, fingers crossed, can play more games this year.  We both also agree that Quin will implement an actual scheme that should improve our 3P shooting percentages (even if marginally) and offensive metrics.  We also agree, that while not specifically measurable, the world class development staff should eek out improvements to existing players.  

So take all of those factors, and the cited "cap on how good our offense can be" should go from at least 7th best offense to something even better than that.  I would argue we could easily be top 5 with the above improvements.  And two of the conference finalists had ~bottom 10 offenses last year.  So the question quickly becomes, how much are you willing to sacrifice on the defensive end for the beloved spacing everyone is obsessed with these days.  I'd argue (and have quite diligently in any KAT discussions) we're already nearing a reasonable ceiling for offensive efficiency, and Capela going out for someone that is not replacement level on defense is going to leave us in a net worse position.  Going back to the KAT thread, people love to cite how defense is improved when your opponents are taking the ball out of the net.  Well, I think that's true but the framing is off -- our offense isn't going to be as effective if we're constantly inbounding.  We have so much room for improvement on defense yet the only thing anyone seems to want to solve for is "spacing".  It was so obvious watching that Celtics series that we need strong defenders that I cannot fathom why the only thing we are talking about all offseason is spacing spacing spacing.  About 5% of Siakam discussion has been centered around what an excellent, switchable, defender he is.  And he has an insane motor and conditioning.  "But spacing...."

[AHF]

7 minutes ago, JeffS17 said:

Do you think we had good 3P shooting last year?  We had DM last year at your "Russell Westbrook in a bad terrible season" percentages, Trae shooting pitifully from 3, JC shooting 29%, Hunter shooting 35%, and we only had Bey for 25 games.  Oh, and Bogi only played 54 games.

No.  Our 3pt shooting stunk last season until Bogi was back.

Quote

...yet we had the 7th highest rated offense in the league.  So to your comment that there is a cap on how good your offense can be without plus 3P shooting, that cap is at a minimum, 7th best offense for us going into next season.  And I think we both agree JC being gone is an improvement to 3P shooting, and we both agree that Bey is a plus shooter, and Bogi, who, fingers crossed, can play more games this year.  We both also agree that Quin will implement an actual scheme that should improve our 3P shooting percentages (even if marginally) and offensive metrics.  We also agree, that while not specifically measurable, the world class development staff should eek out improvements to existing players.  

So take all of those factors, and the cited "cap on how good our offense can be" should go from at least 7th best offense to something even better than that.  I would argue we could easily be top 5 with the above improvements.  And two of the conference finalists had ~bottom 10 offenses last year.  So the question quickly becomes, how much are you willing to sacrifice on the defensive end for the beloved spacing everyone is obsessed with these days.  I'd argue (and have quite diligently in any KAT discussions) we're already nearing a reasonable ceiling for offensive efficiency, and Capela going out for someone that is not replacement level on defense is going to leave us in a net worse position.  Going back to the KAT thread, people love to cite how defense is improved when your opponents are taking the ball out of the net.  Well, I think that's true but the framing is off -- our offense isn't going to be as effective if we're constantly inbounding.  We have so much room for improvement on defense yet the only thing anyone seems to want to solve for is "spacing".  It was so obvious watching that Celtics series that we need strong defenders that I cannot fathom why the only thing we are talking about all offseason is spacing spacing spacing.  About 5% of Siakam discussion has been centered around what an excellent, switchable, defender he is.  And he has an insane motor and conditioning.  "But spacing...."

We did have the 7th highest rated offense last year thanks almost entirely to Trae.  But I don't think we were an offense that scared anyone and the ability to match up with an offense in the post-season is the true measure for a team's cap.  We did not have the versatility that we needed when it came to the playoffs and spacing was a big factor there which gets worse with Siakam.  Now I think our team is better with something like a Siakam for AJ/Hunter type of deal but I have big questions how Siakam and CC fit together without very strong 3pt shooting around them and Trae / DM / Bey doesn't give me a sense of security on that front.  

I find your comments on defense particularly interesting given the big hole on defense we will have if we deal Hunter and don't get back someone who can effectively defend big wings.  Siakam is a good defender but he can't fit that niche.

Anyway, I suppose this is all a bit hypothetical but I do have spacing questions about a Siakam / CC / DM lineup.