Can Josh and the 3pt shot be a good thing?

[exodus]

I think that's called instilling confidence that we trust you to take and knock down the open jumper if they give it to you. Alot of ya'll acting like he dribbling all around the court and just pulling up with hands in his face (*cough* Mike Bibby *cough*)...these are wide open 3's he are taking and for our sake making as of late. As long as he doesn't keep shooting them when he misses a few we'll be fine.

Smith shot 3-18 from 3 in the playoffs against Boston. He shot 21% from 3 in Dec/Jan/Feb yet he is still shooting them. I think that qualifies as continuing to shoot them even when he is missing. He has been missing them for years.

[HamHawk]

Really think he'll rotate to SF next year? I don't think he'll progress the shot that quick. . .

[HawkNJersey]

If Josh and Joe took 100 3 pointers, Joe would only make about 5 more than Josh. Think about that...

If you don't want Josh shooting 3s, don't count the ones he makes...on your personal scoreboard.

[tonegully]

If Josh and Joe took 100 3 pointers, Joe would only make about 5 more than Josh. Think about that...

If you don't want Josh shooting 3s, don't count the ones he makes...on your personal scoreboard.

You cant be serious.

[HawkNJersey]

You cant be serious.

You guys are using stats...so am I.

[thecampster]

You cant be serious.

He is serious.

Joe Johnson has shot "398" 3-pointers this year making 140 of them for a 35.2 percentage.

Josh Smith has shot 81 3-point attempts this year making 24 of them for a 29.6 percentage.

For every 100 3 pointers each attempts, there has been a 5.6% disparity. If each shot 100, Joe would make 5.6 more...that's it.

However here is the math that makes sense.

Josh is a 48.8% shooter this season. That basically means every 2 pointer is worth about .976 points. at 29.6% his average 3 pointer is worth .888 points.

Joe is a 43.3 % shooter thes season. That basically means every 2 pointer is worth about .866 points. at 35.2% his average 3 pointer is worth 1.062 points per attempt.

The argument everyone is trying to make is that Josh shouldn't shoot 3's because he is .088 points per attempt worse than when he shoots a regular 2 point shot.

Using that same logic, Joe Johnson should only shoot 3's then because he is .196 points per attempt more effective shooting only 3's.

If you guys are buying into Josh not taking any more 3 point attempts a game because his 1.4 attempts per game are by my formula costing the Hawks .12 points per game then you also need to buy into the argument that Joe Johnson should stop shooting 2's as his 18.2 attempts per game are costing the hawks 3.56 points a game.

------------------------------------

And now that I hope that I have your hating attention.

Over the last 31 games, Josh has shot 11 for 28 from 3 point land for a 39.3% clip.

Over the same time frame, Joe has shot 49 for 128 from 3 point land for a 38.3% clip.

For the last 2 months plus Josh has been 1 % better than Joe but has taken 100 less attempts. You should probably get off his nuts.

Edited April 9, 2009 by thecampster

[HamHawk]

Great points and thanks for the breakdown. The only thing is that Joe has shot five times more threes than Josh. That means a few hot games have put Josh in this position, where if they were cold games you would see a huge difference in this statistic. They were not cold games and I take nothing away from a player wanting to extend his range. I just can't trust these statistics until Josh puts a few more up there (after offseason work) For the playoffs, I say if he's hitting then let him shoot. He just has to know when to call it good or call it quits.

[thecampster]

Great points and thanks for the breakdown. The only thing is that Joe has shot five times more threes than Josh. That means a few hot games have put Josh in this position, where if they were cold games you would see a huge difference in this statistic. They were not cold games and I take nothing away from a player wanting to extend his range. I just can't trust these statistics until Josh puts a few more up there (after offseason work) For the playoffs, I say if he's hitting then let him shoot. He just has to know when to call it good or call it quits.

What I'm saying is people blow the negatives here way out of proportion. Let's keep it in context. We keep hearing people say "Josh lurks out at the 3 point line" or "He's always jacking up 3's". He's averaged 1.3 per game for the year. That is hardly "Jacking" or "Lurking". It's not even enough to have a real impact in most games. It's a non issue to me. Especially when you consider he's close to 50% from the field overall for the year.

People here keep saying, Josh thinks he's an outside shooter. Every time I see him shoot from the 3 point line I cringe. If that's the case, you cringe 1.3 times a game. That's it. 1.3 - three point attempts a game does not make him the 2nd coming of J.R. Rider. Consider it this way. Joe Johnson turns the ball over 2.5 times a game, Josh Smith 2.4, Mike Bibby 1.7, Flip Murray 1.6 and Al Horford 1.5. I would venture to say these 9.7 turnovers have a much bigger impact on the game than a guy shooting 1.3 three pointers a game that coincidently he makes .4 of them.

[exodus]

If Josh and Joe took 100 3 pointers, Joe would only make about 5 more than Josh. Think about that...

If you don't want Josh shooting 3s, don't count the ones he makes...on your personal scoreboard.

If JJ was left wide open every time he shot a 3 and didn't have to take a lot of contested 3s off the dribble at the end of the clock he would probably shoot well over 40% from 3 like he did in Phoenix.

I would assume you realize that JJ is more closely guarded behind the line than Smith, right?

[exodus]

What I'm saying is people blow the negatives here way out of proportion. Let's keep it in context. We keep hearing people say "Josh lurks out at the 3 point line" or "He's always jacking up 3's". He's averaged 1.3 per game for the year. That is hardly "Jacking" or "Lurking". It's not even enough to have a real impact in most games. It's a non issue to me. Especially when you consider he's close to 50% from the field overall for the year.

It isn't just the 3s Smith takes that are the problem. It is all the time he spends behind the line that is the problem. When he is behind the 3 pt line the defense can ignore him. When he is behind the line he isn't hitting the offensive boards, cutting to the basket, etc.

[thecampster]

If JJ was left wide open every time he shot a 3 and didn't have to take a lot of contested 3s off the dribble at the end of the clock he would probably shoot well over 40% from 3 like he did in Phoenix.

I would assume you realize that JJ is more closely guarded behind the line than Smith, right?

Just as I would also assume you realize a much greater percentage of Josh's 3's are desperation, clock running out from JJ running 15 seconds of ISO off the clock 3's. Just 10 of those from Josh this year would take 12% off his average with only 81 attempts before tonight. Believe me. I've seen 10 this year. It's like freaking hot potato. 3 people get the ball at the end of the 24 and no one wants to create their own shot so baroomp it lands in Josh's hands and he puts up a desperation 3 as time expires. Be real here, Josh has taken only 81 attempts heading into tonight. Joe Johnson 398. Josh taking 3's is not and has never been an offensive problem. Trying to say 1.3 three point attempts a game is an offensive problem is just player hate.

There are 48 minutes in a pro ball game. Typically each team attempts about 80 shots. on average each starter tries about 12. You have got to be kidding me if you're trying to say that 1.3 attempts from 3 out of 80 shots in a game is a problem. It's just ridiculous. Wilt Chamberlin is not a Hawk. You can't just dump the ball in low 80 times a game and succeed. Everyone has to get into the flow of the game and everyone has to have some range. Guards can't just shoot jumpers, they have to drive. Big men just can't only dunk, they have to have some kind of jumper too. 1.3 attempts is not an offensive problem.

[capstone21]

He did it again tonight. Up by two with only a couple minutes left and he jacked up a very inappropriate 3 pointer which had no chance to go in.

It was not even close and then the Bucks went up and scored and tied the game.

Thankfully Joe took over and won the game but that was a terrible shot and the wrong time to shoot it.

Nique and Bob were even saying that it was a terrible shot and he should not have shot it.

[exodus]

Trying to say 1.3 three point attempts a game is an offensive problem is just player hate.

Why don't you point out where someone besides you has said that?

You don't seem to be able to put two and two together.

Just as I would also assume you realize a much greater percentage of Josh's 3's are desperation, clock running out

Why do you think smith gets the ball so frequently behind the line at the end of the clock? it is because he is left wide open while the defenders are covering everyone else.

Next game just watch where Smith's defender is when Smith is behind the line, if you can even tell who his defender is supposed to be.

[NineOhTheRino]

He did it again tonight. Up by two with only a couple minutes left and he jacked up a very inappropriate 3 pointer which had no chance to go in.

It was not even close and then the Bucks went up and scored and tied the game.

Thankfully Joe took over and won the game but that was a terrible shot and the wrong time to shoot it.

Nique and Bob were even saying that it was a terrible shot and he should not have shot it.

yeah but had he made the shot Nique would have been all over his junk. But I agree, that was a bad shot.

Edited April 9, 2009 by NineOhTheRino

[hawkman]

1 out of 2 from 3pt land. Sometimes things get waaaaaaaay blown out of proportion here.

[HawkNJersey]

If JJ was left wide open every time he shot a 3 and didn't have to take a lot of contested 3s off the dribble at the end of the clock he would probably shoot well over 40% from 3 like he did in Phoenix.

I would assume you realize that JJ is more closely guarded behind the line than Smith, right?

I personally don't assume anything..because it's physically impossible to assume on every stat. I can't say for certain that Smoove wouldn't shoot better with someone in his face.

[HawkNJersey]

He did it again tonight. Up by two with only a couple minutes left and he jacked up a very inappropriate 3 pointer which had no chance to go in.

It was not even close and then the Bucks went up and scored and tied the game.

Thankfully Joe took over and won the game but that was a terrible shot and the wrong time to shoot it.

Nique and Bob were even saying that it was a terrible shot and he should not have shot it.

You mean, he miss the only three that mattered all night?

[DJlaysitup]

It's somewhat silly...obviously ex and cap are off the mark. They don't seem to understand things and they want everything (reality-wise) to back up their pre-conceived notions.

[thecampster]

Why don't you point out where someone besides you has said that?

You don't seem to be able to put two and two together.

Why do you think smith gets the ball so frequently behind the line at the end of the clock? it is because he is left wide open while the defenders are covering everyone else.

Next game just watch where Smith's defender is when Smith is behind the line, if you can even tell who his defender is supposed to be.

No you aren't putting 2 and 2 together. Let me try to explain this logically. Josh made 10 of 14 free throw attempts tonight. Do you know how to get 14 free throw attempts in a game? Yeah that's right. Standing at the 3 point line. You always draw 7-10 fouls in 39 minutes standing at the 3 point line. You can rant and hate all you want about a player "always" standing at the 3 point line but the numbers don't suggest that. Josh is averaging 5 free throws a night. Jump shooters don't shoot 5 FT's a night. He shot 14 tonight. You don't shoot that many free throws being a jump shooter. he wasn't at the line...he was around the basket enough in 39 minutes to earn 14 free throws.

I've labeled facts here. I quoted stats all through this thread. You're screaming that I must be wrong because you don't hear other people agree'ing with me. There are 4 other people in the thread stating they are either for it or like me do not care. Josh has the 3rd highest shooting percentage on the team, and 2nd among starters. You don't get that being a jump shooter who hangs at the 3 point line all the time. Josh is 2nd on the team in rebounds. You don't do that standing at the 3 point line. Josh is first in blocks, you don't do that standing at the 3 point line. Josh is 1st in steals, you don't do that standing at the 3 point line. Just because he has been at the 3 point line doesn't mean he standing around there looking for ho's.

Before tonight the team shot 1560 - 3 pointers this year, of which Josh shot 81. He shot 1 out of every 19.5 three point shots. That's right....5% of the hawks 3 pointers were Josh Smith. 5 other players on the hawks have shot more 3 pointers.

Josh shooting or being at the 3 point line is such an insignificant occurance statistically it is ridiculous to bring it up. Come on. Show me some facts. Or let this unfounded hatred die. Be honest. You are whining about a starting player in the NBA averaging 35 minutes a game shooting 83 long range shots in a season...of which he's made 25. So in reality you're only whining about the 58 he's missed in 65 games played. You are the one not putting 2 and 2 together. Your argument is ridiculous.

[TheTruth]

Just because he has been at the 3 point line doesn't mean he standing around there looking for ho's.

I dont care what anyone says: this, and this alone, is the post of the night. Well done. :thumbsupsmileyanim: