Homecourt Draft Discussion

[kg01]

21 hours ago, thecampster said:

I hit quote but had to take a few seconds to compose myself from lasting before hitting submit reply.

That guy was clearly hacked.

One day away from the site and I come back to this?!

It's ok, I still love all y'all so much.  How much, you ask?  Check it out ...

Spoiler

 

[thecampster]

10 hours ago, marco102 said:

Bro.  JJJ is going to be good.  He's better than what you predicted.  I'd definetely love to have him on the Hawks.  He's super Young and has a lot of room to improve.

I'd trade the Brooklyn 1st for him without blinking. I might even have a drink after to celebrate.

11 hours ago, EazyRoc said:

Right..me too and I was very bullish on Trae. Predicted he had MVP potential and all.

I remember...only a few of us at the get go.

[thecampster]

10 hours ago, marco102 said:

Bro.  JJJ is going to be good.  He's better than what you predicted.  I'd definetely love to have him on the Hawks.  He's super Young and has a lot of room to improve.

This!!!  Its the argument I made with KB21 at the start in favor of Trae. I stated JJJ was going to be a very good pro but that because he was a big, so young and still growing, he was going to a project to help in the rebuild. 2 years + to really start seeing his potential. I was never against JJJ, I was just against him at 3-8 because of the immediate return. I was and still am not now in favor of tanking on a biological and moral level.  KB21 and I screamed at anyone who would hear it that tanking takes time. I was fully in favor of a rebuild (1/2 years of bad max, trade for assets and then use cap space for vets) which is what I begged for before this year when we used our cap space on Parsons, Turner, Crabbe trades.  I wasn't down for a 5 year process. I was willing to go 2-3...KB was like F%@$ this...we had a 60 win season...tweak this.

But now 2 years later, hell ya I'd take him. I really don't think you are going to see JJJs full potential until he's 24-26.  I see him as a 20/8 guy.  He's a Robin but he'd be a helluva Robin. Next to Collins/Young. He will probably add 20 more pounds in the next 3 years and be able to play inside out.

That said, I'd take Bamba off Orlando's hands two but not for a first higher than 16.  Bamba is in a terrible system and will be a good defensive big. Never an all-star but very serviceable on an offensive team that needs a rim protector.  Neither of those were worthy of a top 5 pick at the time.

[thecampster]

10 hours ago, KB21 said:

You can keep being wrong on this if you want to.  JJJ isn’t just a 3 and D guy.  He’s also great with handling the ball for a man his size, and he does a great job of creating off the dribble for himself.  

If I watch Jones bobble one more soft rebound, drop another pass because he closes his hands too fast, I'm going to need a new TV. I'm not sure "Great" is correct right now, but JJJ is now turning the corner and approaching that threshold.

[thecampster]

10 hours ago, NBASupes said:

  

These are still Trae's weaknesses. Running a system and decision making skills. But all of his strengths have came is massive ways. Like I said, Trae is either a superstar or bust. Even his bad games feel like the worst on the team but his best games feel like the greatest offensive player ever. 

 

Sheesh, I was on f***ing fire in this thread. Shit! 

@EazyRoc might have been right on Trae. As long as you can run PnRs, shoot and pass at an elite level, you gonna be a very good PG in this league. You are right but, this still stands. 

 

Spud, I see you. 

 

At least you didn't lie, you knew this is what you was going to do. Sadly you cherry f***ing picked post. 

It's been a plan 20 months in the making and why not..there are a ton of cherries in there.  There was a 2 day stretch where I just watched everyone spouting nonsense and I was like...I am so going back and rubbing this in their faces.  Had to take a second and put on the troll hat, tell the wife I'd be in the basement and any cackling she heard should be ignored...it wasn't pornography.

[JayBirdHawk]

What's the point of rubbing it in though...that's how things can get ugly....this would be more fun if Squawkers actually came voluntarily and ate their own crow if they so choose.

And I've eaten my.share of crow on varying topics.

[thecampster]

22 minutes ago, JayBirdHawk said:

What's the point of rubbing it in though...that's how things can get ugly....this would be more fun if Squawkers actually came voluntarily and ate their own crow if they so choose.

And I've eaten my.share of crow on varying topics.

Oh pft...don't take that personally....its the fun of it. We all talk so confidently and more often than not...have to eat it. That thread was gold for hot take, super ego'ing.

[AHF]

1 hour ago, JayBirdHawk said:

What's the point of rubbing it in though...that's how things can get ugly....this would be more fun if Squawkers actually came voluntarily and ate their own crow if they so choose.

And I've eaten my.share of crow on varying topics.

The draft is to a high degree a crap shoot unless you have a remarkable scouting eye (and have access to way more tape and workouts than the average fan ever gets to see) so I give kudos to people who come out with their actual takes and know that many will be wrong.  No need to beat anyone over the head with it.  It just comes with the territory.

My shorthand:

• Looking back, I was certainly right about Doncic but no need to hurt myself patting myself on the back becaues
• I was very wrong on the risk of Trae not being a true distributor (i.e., glad he isn't a Sexton type who does little other than try to get himself scores) and none of my worries about his low floor panned out so I couldn't be happier to be wrong about that.  
• JJJ has shown a lot of promise in the league.  Don't know why anyone would be crapping on kb for his take.  It has been more right than wrong so far.  The rebounding is pitiful but everything else is pretty darn good - the defense, the stud scoring efficiency for someone taking so many jumpers, etc.  And he is younger than Cam Reddish (and way younger than Hunter / Bruno) so there is no reason to be crap talking kb for having him in his top 3.  If a redraft was held today, he might be the #3 pick.
• Bagley and Bamba have time to come around.  Bagley has shown some promise while Bamba is all white board potential right now.  Orlando has to be really upset looking back at that draft that they didn't get a top 5 pick.  Things don't look great for Bagley (the comparisons to Trae and Luka are brutal) but his next game will be the 76th in his career.  Plenty of time and enough promise shown to not write him off yet.  Playing in Sacramento doesn't help build confidence for his future but that goes for anyone there.

 

[NBASupes]

2 minutes ago, AHF said:

The draft is to a high degree a crap shoot unless you have a remarkable scouting eye (and have access to way more tape and workouts than the average fan ever gets to see) so I give kudos to people who come out with their actual takes and know that many will be wrong.  No need to beat anyone over the head with it.  It just comes with the territory.

My shorthand:

• Looking back, I was certainly right about Doncic but no need to hurt myself patting myself on the back becaues
• I was very wrong on the risk of Trae not being a true distributor (i.e., glad he isn't a Sexton type who does little other than try to get himself scores) and none of my worries about his low floor panned out so I couldn't be happier to be wrong about that.  
• JJJ has shown a lot of promise in the league.  Don't know why anyone would be crapping on kb for his take.  It has been more right than wrong so far.  The rebounding is pitiful but everything else is pretty darn good - the defense, the stud scoring efficiency for someone taking so many jumpers, etc.  And he is younger than Cam Reddish (and way younger than Hunter / Bruno) so there is no reason to be crap talking kb for having him in his top 3.  If a redraft was held today, he might be the #3 pick.
• Bagley and Bamba have time to come around.  Bagley has shown some promise while Bamba is all white board potential right now.  Orlando has to be really upset looking back at that draft that they didn't get a top 5 pick.  Things don't look great for Bagley (the comparisons to Trae and Luka are brutal) but his next game will be the 76th in his career.  Plenty of time and enough promise shown to not write him off yet.  Playing in Sacramento doesn't help build confidence for his future but that goes for anyone there.

 

KB said his floor was prime Ibaka and his ceiling is KG. Neither is close to true. He also said he is the most athletic big man in this draft, that also isn't true. 

Edited February 3, 2020 by NBASupes

[AHF]

7 minutes ago, NBASupes said:

KB said his floor was prime Ibaka and his ceiling is KG. Neither is close to true. He also said he is the most athletic big man in this draft, that also isn't true. 

I think JJJ could easily reach prime Ibaka in his prime so that doesn't seem like a bad comp to me.  KG is obviously not happening and I agree he isn't the most athletic big man in the draft but when you look at the totality of what he said about JJJ, it seems like a lot more "hit" than "miss" to me. Ibaka's prime/peak was probably his age 24 season so we've got 4 years of JJJ development to see if he surpasses that mark.

[KB21]

5 minutes ago, NBASupes said:

KB said his floor was prime Ibaka and his ceiling is KG. Neither is close to true. He also said he is the most athletic big man in this draft, that also isn't true. 

He is well on his way to surpassing peak Ibaka, as he is a much better shooter at a younger age than Ibaka.  

[NBASupes]

2 minutes ago, AHF said:

I think JJJ could easily reach prime Ibaka in his prime so that doesn't seem like a bad comp to me.  KG is obviously not happening and I agree he isn't the most athletic big man in the draft but when you look at the totality of what he said about JJJ, it seems like a lot more "hit" than "miss" to me. Ibaka's prime/peak was probably his age 24 season so we've got 4 years of JJJ development to see if he surpasses that mark.

NO! He said his floor meaning rookie year, he would be as good as prime Ibaka and when he comes into his prime KG or at worse LMA with volume 3pt shooting. 

 

He got mad at @GameTime who said his likely ceiling is Ibaka with more shooting and said he's that right now. 

Edited February 3, 2020 by NBASupes

[AHF]

1 minute ago, KB21 said:

He is well on his way to surpassing peak Ibaka, as he is a much better shooter at a younger age than Ibaka.  

Age 20 Comparison - Per Game

 

Rk	Player	Season	Age	G	GS	MP	FG	FGA	FG%	3P	3PA	3P%	2P	2PA	2P%	eFG%	FT	FTA	FT%	ORB	DRB	TRB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	PTS
1	Serge Ibaka	2009-10	20	73	0	18.1	2.8	5.1	.543	0.0	0.0	.500	2.7	5.0	.543	.545	0.8	1.3	.630	1.9	3.5	5.4	0.1	0.3	1.3	0.9	2.7	6.3
2	Jaren Jackson	2019-20	20	47	47	28.0	6.4	13.4	.479	2.6	6.5	.405	3.8	6.9	.549	.578	2.2	2.9	.745	1.0	3.7	4.7	1.4	0.7	1.6	1.7	4.1	17.7

[KB21]

1 minute ago, AHF said:

I think JJJ could easily reach prime Ibaka in his prime so that doesn't seem like a bad comp to me.  KG is obviously not happening and I agree he isn't the most athletic big man in the draft but when you look at the totality of what he said about JJJ, it seems like a lot more "hit" than "miss" to me. Ibaka's prime/peak was probably his age 24 season so we've got 4 years of JJJ development to see if he surpasses that mark.

Most players never reach their 95th percentile outcome anyway.  With that said, it’s very easy to see JJJ exploding and becoming another KG.  

[AHF]

Just now, NBASupes said:

NO! He said his floor meaning rookie year, he would be as good as prime Ibaka and when he comes into his prime KG or at worse LMA with volume 3pt shooting. 

I don't read it that way.  I think by "floor" he was talking about the worst case scenario for his prime.  Using "floor" to talk about someone's worse moments of their rookie season isn't a useful term and I've never seen it applied like that.

[NBASupes]

Just now, AHF said:

I don't read it that way.  I think by "floor" he was talking about the worst case scenario for his prime.  Using "floor" to talk about someone's worse moments of their rookie season isn't a useful term and I've never seen it applied like that.

He got mad at Gametime for exactly what you are thinking

[AHF]

1 minute ago, KB21 said:

Most players never reach their 95th percentile outcome anyway.  With that said, it’s very easy to see JJJ exploding and becoming another KG.  

I don't have a very easy time seeing JJJ become another KG.  At all.  Like that is super hard for me to picture.

[NBASupes]

2 minutes ago, KB21 said:

Most players never reach their 95th percentile outcome anyway.  With that said, it’s very easy to see JJJ exploding and becoming another KG.  

How? 

[AHF]

Just now, NBASupes said:

He got mad at Gametime for exactly what you are thinking

He can clarify.  If he meant that age 19 JJJ would be better than the best season of Ibaka's career then I agree with you but think that is a really strained and useless definition of the word "floor."

[KB21]

1 minute ago, AHF said:

I don't read it that way.  I think by "floor" he was talking about the worst case scenario for his prime.  Using "floor" to talk about someone's worse moments of their rookie season isn't a useful term and I've never seen it applied like that.

I know I didn’t use the term that way.  It’s rare that a rookie is actually good in his rookie season.  Luka Doncic this past season was an exception, but I knew he would be very good right away.