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Trae’s +/- versus Floor Game-Centric PGs


benhillboy

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15 minutes ago, txsting said:

@benhillboy you are one of the best posters here, but I think you may have simply found some numbers that back up the thoughts and fears you are already having, and might be suffering from a little confirmation bias in this case.

Traes on/off plus-minus is actually through the roof.  Check 82games.com (they are back baby).  Maybe that is due to a poor backup PG situation, and we will find out now that we have a much stronger situation with JT.

However, 30ppg players are rare.  He is doing all the work to get those numbers.  Very rarely does he get a catch and shoot.  

We have no choice but to build around Trae, unless somebody offers a trade we can't refuse.  As far as I'm concerned the whole roster should be available to find the best complementary players for Trae.  That includes Collins.

I agree that everyone but Trae should be available for the right price.  I'm not looking to trade the core, but I wouldn't be opposed to it for the right players. 

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5 minutes ago, REHawksFan said:

Fascinating data. Thanks for posting.

Also interesting to note the following:

  • Trae / Huerter both WON: Hawks go 2-4
  • Trae / JC both WON: Hawks go 1-1
  • Huerter / JC both WON: Hawks go 1-1
  • T/H/C all WIN: Hawks go 0-1 (only happened in Cleveland when JC came back from suspension)

 

So just using the numbers you posted, the Hawks are 4 - 7 when at least 2 out of the 3 of Trae, Collins, or Huerter won their matchup.  That's a 36.4% winning percentage.  So even when our best guys are winning matchups, we're still losing.  That's an indication that others have to still help them.

Most statheads and new analytic people hate the NBA Efficiency stat, because it's skewed toward players that play more minutes or players that produce a lot of raw numbers.  But those numbers DO matter.  If it didn't, the stat ( when looked at from a team standpoint ), wouldn't be so accurate in predicting who wins and loses a game.

 

This is the Hawks profile

  http://www.hoopsstats.com/basketball/fantasy/nba/atlanta-hawks/team/profile/20/1

 

When the Hawks win the NBA Efficiency battle, the Hawks are 9 - 1.  When they lose it, we're 1 - 31.  And that 1 win came at San Antonio the other night, via Huerter's late game 3.  But let's dive all aspects of the team to see how the profile changes.

  • Backcourt:    22 - 21 . . . . . .( Hawks record in wins:  10 - 12 . . . Hawks record in losses:  0 - 21 )
  • Frontcourt:   11 - 32 . . . . .  ( Hawks record in wins:    7 - 4 . . . . Hawks record in losses:  3 - 29  )
  • In The Paint: 16 - 26 - 1  . . ( Hawks record in wins:    4 - 12 . . . Hawks record in losses:  5 - 21 )
  • Out of Paint: 13 - 30 . . . . .  ( Hawks record in wins:    9 - 4 . . . . Hawks record in losses:  1 - 29 )
  • Starters:        13 - 30 . . . . . . ( Hawks record in wins:    8 - 5 . . . . Hawks record in losses:  2 - 28 )
  • Bench:          17 - 26 . . . . . . ( Hawks record in wins:    7 - 10 . . . Hawks record in losses:  3 - 23 )

 

  • PG:     28 - 13 - 2 . . .. . . . . .  ( Hawks record in wins:  10 - 18 . . . Hawks record in losses:  0 - 13 )
  • SG:     16 - 27 . . . . . . . . . . . . ( Hawks record in wins:    4 - 12 . . . Hawks record in losses:  6 - 21 )
  • SF:        7 - 35 . . . . . . . . . . . . ( Hawks record in wins:    5 - 2 . . . . Hawks record in losses:  4 - 31 )
  • PF:      16 - 24 - 3 . . . . . . . .  ( Hawks record in wins:     3 - 13 . . . Hawks record in losses:  6 - 18 )
  • C :      16  - 26 - 1 . . . . . . . .  ( Hawks record in wins:     4 - 12 . . . Hawks record in losses:  6 - 20 )

Looking at these profiles from a team standpoint, it just drives home even more how our fortunes live and die with our backcourt, and why it is so important for Huerter and now Teague, to play well on a nightly basis.  The 0 - 21 record when the backcourt loses the efficiency battle, is directly related to shooting.

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15 minutes ago, TheNorthCydeRises said:

So just using the numbers you posted, the Hawks are 4 - 7 when at least 2 out of the 3 of Trae, Collins, or Huerter won their matchup.  That's a 36.4% winning percentage.  So even when our best guys are winning matchups, we're still losing.  That's an indication that others have to still help them.

Most statheads and new analytic people hate the NBA Efficiency stat, because it's skewed toward players that play more minutes or players that produce a lot of raw numbers.  But those numbers DO matter.  If it didn't, the stat ( when looked at from a team standpoint ), wouldn't be so accurate in predicting who wins and loses a game.

 

This is the Hawks profile

  http://www.hoopsstats.com/basketball/fantasy/nba/atlanta-hawks/team/profile/20/1

 

When the Hawks win the NBA Efficiency battle, the Hawks are 9 - 1.  When they lose it, we're 1 - 31.  And that 1 win came at San Antonio the other night, via Huerter's late game 3.  But let's dive all aspects of the team to see how the profile changes.

  • Backcourt:    22 - 21 . . . . . .( Hawks record in wins:  10 - 12 . . . Hawks record in losses:  0 - 21 )
  • Frontcourt:   11 - 32 . . . . .  ( Hawks record in wins:    7 - 4 . . . . Hawks record in losses:  3 - 29  )
  • In The Paint: 16 - 26 - 1  . . ( Hawks record in wins:    4 - 12 . . . Hawks record in losses:  5 - 21 )
  • Out of Paint: 13 - 30 . . . . .  ( Hawks record in wins:    9 - 4 . . . . Hawks record in losses:  1 - 29 )
  • Starters:        13 - 30 . . . . . . ( Hawks record in wins:    8 - 5 . . . . Hawks record in losses:  2 - 28 )
  • Bench:          17 - 26 . . . . . . ( Hawks record in wins:    7 - 10 . . . Hawks record in losses:  3 - 23 )

 

  • PG:     28 - 13 - 2 . . .. . . . . .  ( Hawks record in wins:  10 - 18 . . . Hawks record in losses:  0 - 13 )
  • SG:     16 - 27 . . . . . . . . . . . . ( Hawks record in wins:    4 - 12 . . . Hawks record in losses:  6 - 21 )
  • SF:        7 - 35 . . . . . . . . . . . . ( Hawks record in wins:    5 - 2 . . . . Hawks record in losses:  4 - 31 )
  • PF:      16 - 24 - 3 . . . . . . . .  ( Hawks record in wins:     3 - 13 . . . Hawks record in losses:  6 - 18 )
  • C :      16  - 26 - 1 . . . . . . . .  ( Hawks record in wins:     4 - 12 . . . Hawks record in losses:  6 - 20 )

Looking at these profiles from a team standpoint, it just drives home even more how our fortunes live and die with our backcourt, and why it is so important for Huerter and now Teague, to play well on a nightly basis.  The 0 - 21 record when the backcourt loses the efficiency battle, is directly related to shooting.

I wonder how those sensitivity numbers wrt the backcourt will change once we have a legit starting C on the roster. Would have to think that's part of the issue. That along with JC being out 25 games and the rookies being rookies. Give me a stronger starting C, more seasoned Cam and Hunter, and a full-time JC and I'm guessing A LOT of pressure will be taken off of Trae and Kev. 

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19 minutes ago, AHF said:

Plus / minus is a highly contextual number.  A single game also means nothing.  It seems obvious to me that we are largely comparing +/- of a rebuilding lottery team against playoff rosters with much deeper talent pools.  That doesn't translate well as a proxy for a direct comparison of Trae's style versus "traditional" point guards without accounting for that context.

Exactly.  

It's kinda ridiculous to judge Trae on plus minus when the context of the surrounding parts is so different. 

 

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Huh yeah I dunno...trae off ball skills can improve and this team will likely still lose. Traes offense will only get better at this point ...he won’t regress but on the flip side of that Trae was never going to be incredibly impactful on the defensive end just like Curry isn’t . I get curry got better but honestly of it weren’t for klay improving as a defender in the backcourt where they could consistently hide curry they probably wouldn’t have made a championship run before kd showed up.

what I’ve noticed about the nba is that a team can cover one starter who isn’t good at defense (warriors for curry is an obvious example and another one is iverson on the 76ers early 2000s team)....I think Schlenk knows this and it’s obvious he knows it with the draft picks he made on getting two wing players with high upside in defensive potential and long wingspans (Reddish/ Hunter).

Trae can add muscle and still is unlikely to have any defensive impact whatsoever. But it’s a obvious thing you know when drafting a player like trae. I honestly thought Ja morant on the Grizzlies was going to have the same problem but as far as I know he’s a lot better than trae when I thought he’d be similar based on his small frame and weight size. As far as defense for Trae all we can really do is ask that he hustles hard as hell like curry learned to do. Hustling will make up for some of his deficiencies on that end and as long as he has defense around him ...best believe we are going to be problem once that happens .

23 minutes ago, hawkman said:

There's nothing normal or routine about what Trae is doing this season.  Some might not be sold on him yet, but it's obvious opposing teams respect/fear him enough to primarily be focused on containing him. That says a lot. He's like a more efficient Iverson with Nash's court vision. Field a decent team around him and he's a legit MVP candidate as soon as next season.

Yes sir ! Say it again!

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12 hours ago, TheNorthCydeRises said:

So just using the numbers you posted, the Hawks are 4 - 7 when at least 2 out of the 3 of Trae, Collins, or Huerter won their matchup.  That's a 36.4% winning percentage.  So even when our best guys are winning matchups, we're still losing.  That's an indication that others have to still help them.

Most statheads and new analytic people hate the NBA Efficiency stat, because it's skewed toward players that play more minutes or players that produce a lot of raw numbers.  But those numbers DO matter.  If it didn't, the stat ( when looked at from a team standpoint ), wouldn't be so accurate in predicting who wins and loses a game.

 

This is the Hawks profile

  http://www.hoopsstats.com/basketball/fantasy/nba/atlanta-hawks/team/profile/20/1

 

When the Hawks win the NBA Efficiency battle, the Hawks are 9 - 1.  When they lose it, we're 1 - 31.  And that 1 win came at San Antonio the other night, via Huerter's late game 3.  But let's dive all aspects of the team to see how the profile changes.

  • Backcourt:    22 - 21 . . . . . .( Hawks record in wins:  10 - 12 . . . Hawks record in losses:  0 - 21 )
  • Frontcourt:   11 - 32 . . . . .  ( Hawks record in wins:    7 - 4 . . . . Hawks record in losses:  3 - 29  )
  • In The Paint: 16 - 26 - 1  . . ( Hawks record in wins:    4 - 12 . . . Hawks record in losses:  5 - 21 )
  • Out of Paint: 13 - 30 . . . . .  ( Hawks record in wins:    9 - 4 . . . . Hawks record in losses:  1 - 29 )
  • Starters:        13 - 30 . . . . . . ( Hawks record in wins:    8 - 5 . . . . Hawks record in losses:  2 - 28 )
  • Bench:          17 - 26 . . . . . . ( Hawks record in wins:    7 - 10 . . . Hawks record in losses:  3 - 23 )

 

  • PG:     28 - 13 - 2 . . .. . . . . .  ( Hawks record in wins:  10 - 18 . . . Hawks record in losses:  0 - 13 )
  • SG:     16 - 27 . . . . . . . . . . . . ( Hawks record in wins:    4 - 12 . . . Hawks record in losses:  6 - 21 )
  • SF:        7 - 35 . . . . . . . . . . . . ( Hawks record in wins:    5 - 2 . . . . Hawks record in losses:  4 - 31 )
  • PF:      16 - 24 - 3 . . . . . . . .  ( Hawks record in wins:     3 - 13 . . . Hawks record in losses:  6 - 18 )
  • C :      16  - 26 - 1 . . . . . . . .  ( Hawks record in wins:     4 - 12 . . . Hawks record in losses:  6 - 20 )

Looking at these profiles from a team standpoint, it just drives home even more how our fortunes live and die with our backcourt, and why it is so important for Huerter and now Teague, to play well on a nightly basis.  The 0 - 21 record when the backcourt loses the efficiency battle, is directly related to shooting.

@TheNorthCydeRises this is absolutely awesome and while I tend to think advance stats isnt completely needed to show this I know some need proof and this just good ol new school proof!

but In my opinion this is just small ball stats speaking to us and  any starting 5 small ball team that want to thrive must be efficient offensively! I mean that’s the whole damn reason you’re going small! To add more shooters and to be faster and quicker ...in result of more possessions than the the opponent.
 

If Curry’s warriors are not efficient that small ball 5 with draymond at center doesn’t work...if Nash’s suns aren’t efficient that small ball 5 with Amare at the 5 doesn’t work...and so on with other small ball units that actually made it work.

when you decide to go small ball as your main group of guys you’re planning to carry you to the promise land you deciding to give up size and power to the opponent in order to have an great advantage in speed and shooting.

Defense is the hardest thing for a small ball 5 to pick up in my opinion but from what I’ve seen from our young core is that they are capable of playing some good defense when they give full effort as a unit it just need to be more consistent  . But anyways its no different with our young core aka small ball 5 and the past small ball 5s that were good .....we have to be efficient offensively on majority games, it’s honestly by design of playing small (and that’s not to say a traditional unit isn’t supposed to be efficient)....I guess a better way to say it is that by design small ball should get you more possessions in the game vs a traditional starting 5 and with more possessions you need to be efficient and you’re getting more possessions as a small unit because you’re  able to push the ball and be faster to get up court, move around quickly, space the floor, move the ball effectively inside and outside , and get off shots that you desire purely based on speed and quickness...you should be a step ahead of traditional lineup at all times ... this is exactly what Schlenk wanted.

 

Edited by JTB
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9 hours ago, hawkman said:

There's nothing normal or routine about what Trae is doing this season.  Some might not be sold on him yet, but it's obvious opposing teams respect/fear him enough to primarily be focused on containing him. That says a lot. He's like a more efficient Iverson with Nash's court vision. Field a decent team around him and he's a legit MVP candidate as soon as next season.

Would think by now folks gotta be sold on Trae (yesterday was a good example of why they should be) but do get there are folks who just don't like him. Mav fans for one but also some supposedly don't appreciate the way he shows his confidence (think they use a different term there) on the floor. Their problem not ours. Trae will be involved in the All Star weekend from here on out.

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10 hours ago, JTB said:

Huh yeah I dunno...trae off ball skills can improve and this team will likely still lose. Traes offense will only get better at this point ..

As an aside here's LP's thoughts on Trae developing off ball:

Quote

Plus, while the Hawks have said they’d like for Young to develop his off-ball skills, he hasn’t shown he’s someone who can constantly run off screens and come off of pin-downs just yet.

“Just because Jeff is here, you don’t just run Trae around,” Pierce said. “I think from a decoy standpoint or second-side action, John (Collins) can run it and come off of pick-and-rolls and kick it to Trae, who is a wide-open shooter or he’s attacking a guy who is running out on him. It’s just a different feel, so you move him off the ball because you have that advantage and not just move him off the ball and run him around and try to find ways to get him in pin-downs like Steph (Curry) or Dame (Lillard).

That requires skill and still takes a lot of time. Once you buy in to playing and moving that way — JJ Redick and Joe Harris — that’s a skill. Trae has a skill with the ball. Those guys have a skill without the basketball, and it’s not get him off the ball, and he’s all of a sudden that. That’s a lot of commitment to movement and understanding you’re going to get the reward on the back end.”

 

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Sorry but I gotta hammer it home guys.  Add on another -33 for Trae versus Lowry and Paul, not even factoring in Van Fleet, SGA (both have bested Trae as starting PGs) and Dennis making sure the PG matchups are heavily one-sided.  What makes it more frustrating is Goodwin helping lead us to a win in Trae’s absence, albeit there wasn’t a floor game PG available for the Clippers.  
 

Marcus Smart now has a higher offensive rating (113 to Trae’s 112) Marcus Smart people.  To eliminate arguments of “his team is awful, he’s still young, etc,” Marcus Morris is at 114.  Eric Paschal is at 110.  Jordan Clarkson at 116.  Not exactly guys you think of as offensive powerhouses like Trae’s numbers should undoubtedly confirm.  Two of these three teams have an even worse defensive rating than the Hawks.  

You have to ask why do teams as awful as the Hawks as a whole, with worse defense, and nothing remotely close to Trae as an individual offensive force (and far lower usages) have higher offensive ratings?  
 

Trae can score and pass.  At historic levels.  That’s it.  His offensive shortcomings due to his size and lack of grit are numerous.  Combine that with his defensive MO we can all agree on and you get far too many predictable nights like last night.

Again, I don’t blame Trae.  I didn’t watch him in college and I trusted that Schlenk predicted his floor game would develop into at least meh.  That’s nearly an impossibility from what I’ve seen.  

Doncic can be a sh@t defender for the most part (still a decent positional player like Trae) because his size is so respected on both ends.  Trae’s size has the opposite effect.  His total lack of screen ability, getting the defense to honor him off the ball (1 corner three attempt every 3 games), and penchant for getting his shot blocked by Bigs instead of getting them in foul trouble sucks so much air out of what should be an insane team offensive impact based on his raw production.  Luka basically does the same thing Trae does with a rag-tag, oft-injured bunch.  The Mavs are #1 in offensive team rating to the Hawks’ dead last?  A perceived disadvantage in roster and coaching doesn’t begin to account for a 29 spot difference when both focal players are putting up All-NBA first team offensive stats.

We got waxed by the Wiz (dead last in defense) and their best floor game player is Gary Payton II at 20 minutes a game.  If that happens again I promise y’all won’t hear from me again on the subject.  I’m just wired to highlight weaknesses of star players that get glossed over time and time by the media is all, home team or not.  Sorry for being a d$@k like those realGM guys lol.  I’ve never gotten a warning here, mods gonna get me.

Edited by benhillboy
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I told everyone who would listen for years it wasn’t possible to build around Joe and he was built like a freakin Adonis putting up 25-5-5. I’d love to be wrong but I’d trust me on this one guys.

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I'll just repost what I said...

Quote

All those PGs have size and length over Trae, he'll always be at a disadvantage defensively.

Most of those PGs (except CP3)  aren't first option offense for their teams - they are roll players.  Teams aren't game planning to stop any of them. Trae is still learning the PG position as the team itself grows and develoops

When you factor in their years of experience, the team surrounding them, playoff quality teams.....

Let me repeat....HAWKS are rebuilding!

This would make for a more appropriate discussion when we don't have guys like the Len's and Jones' of the world playing C.

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I love stuff like this! That being said, guess who is the #1 ranked point guard vs. teams with a winning record?

and it isn’t really close...

And to add to it, the man on top of all the pg in the NBA vs. winning teams also has faced those team 21 times this season.
 

You guessed it... Luka the man!

wait, stop that....I meant Trae the Man!

http://www.hoopsstats.com/basketball/fantasy/nba/playerstats/20/2/eff/13-1
 

just another way of saying Trae should be given some love about this time...

 

 

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6 minutes ago, enrique said:

I love stuff like this! That being said, guess who is the #1 ranked point guard vs. teams with a winning record?

and it isn’t really close...

And to add to it, the man on top of all the pg in the NBA vs. winning teams also has faced those team 21 times this season.
 

You guessed it... Luka the man!

wait, stop that....I meant Trae the Man!

http://www.hoopsstats.com/basketball/fantasy/nba/playerstats/20/2/eff/13-1
 

just another way of saying Trae should be given some love about this time...

 

 

Surprised Kyrie has played enough games to even be on that stat sheet and he is listed in the top ten.

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