The Crystal Ball "What If" thread.

[turnermx]

28 minutes ago, REHawksFan said:

Cannot sign off on this way of thinking at all. Competitive losing? No thanks. I've seen enough losing and I don't want our young guys getting used to it or it becoming a habit for them. Play hard, try to win every game, and let the chips fall where they may. 

Also, I disagree wholeheartedly that there's any reason to try to protect the lottery picks. By all accounts, this will be an historically bad top of the draft with more "value" toward the middle. So I can't agree with losing intentionally to try to get a Top 4 pick. No one worth that to me. 

With the way the draft lottery odds are stacked now its best for the Hawks if they NOT finish in the bottom 4 the way I see it. 

[bleachkit]

For us to win, we have to get hot or they have to get cold. That's a tough way to win night in and night out.

[PSSSHHHRRR87]

1 hour ago, REHawksFan said:

Cannot sign off on this way of thinking at all. Competitive losing? No thanks. I've seen enough losing and I don't want our young guys getting used to it or it becoming a habit for them. Play hard, try to win every game, and let the chips fall where they may. 

Also, I disagree wholeheartedly that there's any reason to try to protect the lottery picks. By all accounts, this will be an historically bad top of the draft with more "value" toward the middle. So I can't agree with losing intentionally to try to get a Top 4 pick. No one worth that to me. 

I don't believe Trae will EVER be comfortable with losing.  The kid wants to win and so does every one of our youngins. This team needs depth and we're playing for the future. Trae, Huerter, Cam, Hunter, and Collins is not enough.  I want us in the top 5 and draft a PF or PG for the bench... then try to sign a veteran starting center. Next season is when we can start gunning for the playoffs.  We need to look competitive next season for the 2021 free agency.

[AHF]

53 minutes ago, turnermx said:

With the way the draft lottery odds are stacked now its best for the Hawks if they NOT finish in the bottom 4 the way I see it. 

How do you figure that?  You have a 10% better chance at landing a pick from #1-#4 if you finish in the bottom 3 compared to your odds if you finish outside of the bottom 4.  10% better is better the way I see it.

Perhaps more importantly, it also determines your default position in a draft where you are now more likely to see team jumping into the top 4.  I.e., finishing with the worst record means your pick can be no lower than 5th.  Finishing with the 5th worst record means your worst case scenario is 9th.

[JayBirdHawk]

6 minutes ago, AHF said:

How do you figure that?  You have a 10% better chance at landing a pick from #1-#4 if you finish in the bottom 3 compared to your odds if you finish outside of the bottom 4.  10% better is better the way I see it.

Perhaps more importantly, it also determines your default position in a draft where you are now more likely to see team jumping into the top 4.  I.e., finishing with the worst record means your pick can be no lower than 5th.  Finishing with the 5th worst record means your worst case scenario is 9th.

Yep. Just like we finished with the 5th worst record last year and ended up at #8. So we had to use assests to move up to #4.

10% increased odds matter in the grand scheme.

 

[txsting]

There will be a great player or two at least in this draft, there almost always is.  We need as many great assets as possible to have a chance to avoid the mediocrity treadmill.  Losing sucks, but we are almost at the end of it.  I think the organization was ready to start winning at a higher clip this year, but we only have 35 games left and it is what it is.  We need to make the best of this unexpected opportunity.

[AHF]

1 minute ago, txsting said:

There will be a great player or two at least in this draft, there almost always is.  We need as many great assets as possible to have a chance to avoid the mediocrity treadmill.  Losing sucks, but we are almost at the end of it.  I think the organization was ready to start winning at a higher clip this year, but we only have 35 games left and it is what it is.  We need to make the best of this unexpected opportunity.

 You also get more value for the #3 pick than the #8 pick.  That applies in every draft.  It is both because of the actual value and because the higher the pick, the easier it is to sell a trade to the fan base.  So if you want to acquire another member of your core by trade, the better the pick the better your chances.

[warcore]

3 hours ago, txsting said:

Still though, if you get Adams for the OKC 1st, do it.  We can still do a subtle tank to maintain position, I'm not worried about that.

In my way of thinking, to win with Trae you need to think about Iverson's best team in 2000-2001, the team that made the Finals run.  It was Iverson doing the heavy lifting scoring the ball, and the entire team defending like crazy, especially Ratliff, Mutombo, and George Lynch.  

We need great defense at all 4 positions that aren't Trae, and we need Trae to get better at D.  Adams is a step in the right direction.  Between Cam and Hunter chances are decent that at least one will develop into a puzzle piece.  At some point we will have to ask ourselves some hard questions about Collins and Huerter.  But not today.

Ratliff was traded for Mutombo... and then was injured the majority of his time with us. 

[Buzzard]

10 hours ago, thecampster said:

I'm up very early this morning preparing for another certification exam, reading the news and looking at the standings.  Man the East is bad. Like dog farts after getting into last night's Chinese food bad.  Brooklyn is currently 8th and Orlando 7th. The teams are 7 and 5 games under 500 respectively. Regardless of all the injuries, the 25 game Collins suspension and playing 1/2 a season with only 1 point guard, we are only 8 games behind Brooklyn for the last playoff spot and 9 behind Orlando. We have 35 games to go for the season.

Assuming both continue to win at their same clip. This would leave Brooklyn with about 35 wins and Orlando with 38.  The Hawks have 13 wins right now but are on the verge of trades that could bring them 2 very good players. John is healthy and the rooks are starting to play well. We have 13 wins.  What would you say if it all fell into place and the team finished their final 35 games 23-12 and edged out Brooklyn for the final spot.

 

Crazy, I know but try to stay on topic. What would you say?

I am all for winning but 23 - 12 is not possible in my mind; even with Adams, Poltl, or any other rumored big. I am hoping we finish off on a good note and for me that is .500. I think .400 over the last half is the potential low ball provided we can stay healthy.

Next season provided Huerter, Hunter, Reddish, and Fernando can take things to a better level, .600 is possible. I do want these two picks; but if we somehow pull off a miracle, then so be it. But I think its unrealistic.

Edited January 27, 2020 by Buzzard

[TheNorthCydeRises]

LOL . . we play one great game, now we're talking possible playoffs.

 

 

The East is definitely bad, which is why at the beginning of the season I predicted that the Hawks would win 36 games, and still get the 8th seed.

At 12 - 35 right now, I would be extremely impressed if we got to 30 wins, maybe even 25 wins.   30 wins means that we play a shade over .500 ball the rest of the way ( 18 - 17 ),  I'll gladly take that.

As far as staying near the top of the lottery, by continuing to be terrible, that's a non-starter for me.  At some point, this team has to start trying to sustain some sort of culture of winning, even if it's a modest culture. 

If people want us to be bad, I want them to shut down Trae at the beginning of March, similar to what we did with Joe Johnson in the 2006 - 07 season, where a mysterious injury had him miss the last 1/3 of the season  That way, Trae doesn't have to be a part of the losing . . . and we won't get any accidental wins with him going off.

 

 

 

[AHF]

50 minutes ago, TheNorthCydeRises said:

As far as staying near the top of the lottery, by continuing to be terrible, that's a non-starter for me.  At some point, this team has to start trying to sustain some sort of culture of winning, even if it's a modest culture. 

If people want us to be bad, I want them to shut down Trae at the beginning of March, similar to what we did with Joe Johnson in the 2006 - 07 season, where a mysterious injury had him miss the last 1/3 of the season  That way, Trae doesn't have to be a part of the losing . . . and we won't get any accidental wins with him going off.

 

 

 

I want our success driven by our core.  Winning based on the successful development of our core is great.  Winning via Bobby Sura action is not.  I'm super skeptical that Gallo does but I am pretty certain he will be desperate to put up big numbers for his next contract this summer.  That is a dangerous dynamic from my perspective.  I wouldn't be looking to gain wins through players who are not going to be part of our core going forward.  But organic growth from our players turning the corner is great.  Don't want to sit any of our core or tell them not to go for it every game.  As you say, we can still be near the top of the lottery standings and show improvement from our core to build off of at the same time.  If we aren't going to acquire additions to our core, then organic improvement is ideal.  And it may take little more than having people healthy.

[JayBirdHawk]

2 hours ago, TheNorthCydeRises said:

LOL . . we play one great game, now we're talking possible playoffs.

 

Never gets old.

[Wretch]

Honestly, the only thing I care about is the continued growth of the kids.  If that means playoffs, then so be it.  If it means competing every game and stringing together strong wins here and there...so be it.  As far as our pick goes, I'm not too thrilled about adding more youth and inexperience.  This is in fact the least I've ever cared about the lottery. 

I must say that in the end, I'd be fine with however it turns out.  The playoffs would be great and a high draft pick is a good bargaining piece.

Edited January 29, 2020 by Wretch

[JayBirdHawk]

What I want more than anything is a healthy team to end the season so we can see how it all meshes together.

We just can't seem to get a solid group of rotation guys together for even 5 consecutive games.

[KB21]

On 1/27/2020 at 6:03 PM, AHF said:

I want our success driven by our core.  Winning based on the successful development of our core is great.  Winning via Bobby Sura action is not.  I'm super skeptical that Gallo does but I am pretty certain he will be desperate to put up big numbers for his next contract this summer.  That is a dangerous dynamic from my perspective.  I wouldn't be looking to gain wins through players who are not going to be part of our core going forward.  But organic growth from our players turning the corner is great.  Don't want to sit any of our core or tell them not to go for it every game.  As you say, we can still be near the top of the lottery standings and show improvement from our core to build off of at the same time.  If we aren't going to acquire additions to our core, then organic improvement is ideal.  And it may take little more than having people healthy.

Making a trade like that allows these young players to taste winning though, and that’s what they need more than anything.  They need to taste winning and see what that is like.  As long as we artificially keep a cap on these young kids, they may never get that taste of winning.  

So yeah, Atlanta should go out and make a couple of deals with the idea of those players helping this team finish strong this season.

[NBASupes]

If they trade for someone like Gallo, they must resign him. That could be difficult as teams who are better might not have the same money but he's older now, money isn't everything as it was when he was in his late 20s.

[JayBirdHawk]

47 minutes ago, KB21 said:

Making a trade like that allows these young players to taste winning though, and that’s what they need more than anything.  They need to taste winning and see what that is like.  As long as we artificially keep a cap on these young kids, they may never get that taste of winning.  

So yeah, Atlanta should go out and make a couple of deals with the idea of those players helping this team finish strong this season.

It has to be more than this though.

You want players that will do more than help you finish the season strong. They have to be players you are willing AND able to keep moving forward or it's just kicking the can down the road.  

Adams is signed thru next season so I'm Ok with that. Gallo is a FA and I don't know if he'll stick around to play with the Hawks.

[AHF]

17 minutes ago, KB21 said:

Making a trade like that allows these young players to taste winning though, and that’s what they need more than anything.  They need to taste winning and see what that is like.  As long as we artificially keep a cap on these young kids, they may never get that taste of winning.  

So yeah, Atlanta should go out and make a couple of deals with the idea of those players helping this team finish strong this season.

I'm 100% in favor of us plucking from the waiver wires or making a cheap deal to add one or more vets that will help the team become much more consistent and functional.  My expectation is that will not propel us into the playoffs this year and we will still finish with one of the worst records but we will be more competitive and the team will have much better structure. Not forced to play people out of position, vets doing what they should be doing on defense so your variables are reduced to the rookies and sophmores who are learning, etc.

But I have zero interest in Gallo busting out for 22 ppg and then leaving in the offseason just so our guys "get the taste of winning."  Bobby Sura did nothing to help that next year's Hawks team.  The taste of winning did nothing.  Helping develop our young guys will do something but I think that is more about helping them play in more stable systems with predictable rotations and less about whether some UFA makes their play for a big contract on our roster.

[KB21]

11 minutes ago, AHF said:

I'm 100% in favor of us plucking from the waiver wires or making a cheap deal to add one or more vets that will help the team become much more consistent and functional.  My expectation is that will not propel us into the playoffs this year and we will still finish with one of the worst records but we will be more competitive and the team will have much better structure. Not forced to play people out of position, vets doing what they should be doing on defense so your variables are reduced to the rookies and sophmores who are learning, etc.

But I have zero interest in Gallo busting out for 22 ppg and then leaving in the offseason just so our guys "get the taste of winning."  Bobby Sura did nothing to help that next year's Hawks team.  The taste of winning did nothing.  Helping develop our young guys will do something but I think that is more about helping them play in more stable systems with predictable rotations and less about whether some UFA makes their play for a big contract on our roster.

There were also no young building blocks on the team Bob Sura was a part of, so you are comparing apples and oranges there.  This Hawks team has enough young talent.  It needs wins.

This is why teams that do what the Hawks did end up staying in this cycle.  If the Hawks do what you want to do, then they will lose next season with another top 5 pick.

[AHF]

1 minute ago, KB21 said:

There were also no young building blocks on the team Bob Sura was a part of, so you are comparing apples and oranges there.  This Hawks team has enough young talent.  It needs wins.

This is why teams that do what the Hawks did end up staying in this cycle.  If the Hawks do what you want to do, then they will lose next season with another top 5 pick.

No they won't.  They will add the vets they need to win for next season.  Not this one. You may have blocked this out, but Philly went from 18, 10 and 28 wins to 52 wins when they added vets and the young guys blossomed.  The young guys developed even on those bad teams.