Coronavirus!

[AHF]

2 minutes ago, bleachkit said:

I never said the numbers would be the same. I said they wouldn't be 10x, 20 or 30x like you claim. What do you think the fatality rate of Covid-19 will be when all the data is compiled? 

10 times 0.1% is 1%.  That said, I can't get behind a bet on this topic.  Too morbid for me.

[JayBirdHawk]

31 minutes ago, bleachkit said:

Well that's one model. Current data suggests those theoretical nembers are grossly inflated. Here's the fly in the ointment. Why aren't nations not practicing social distancing seeing enormous increases in mortality if that model is correct? By and large they are not.

Most Nations are practicing social distancing though, they may not have full stay at home/shelter in place orders. You mentioned (I think it was Sweden) a few posts back and I showed you that even though there is no mandated shelter in place, public transit use has more than halved, vehicular everyday commutes as well, more people telecommuting.

[MaceCase]

17 hours ago, JayBirdHawk said:

Coronavirus has 'reactivated' in more than 100 South Koreans who recovered.

https://www.foxnews.com/health/coronavirus-reactivated-more-than-100-south-koreans-who-recovered

 

So can you get this again if you've had it??

Basically my concern as I'm being hassled back to work.

[kg01]

4 minutes ago, MaceCase said:

Basically my concern as I'm being hassled back to work.

It will be devastating if we rush back to "normal" and have a resurgence.

[AHF]

8 minutes ago, JayBirdHawk said:

Most Nations are practicing social distancing though, they may not have full stay at home/shelter in place orders. You mentioned (I think it was Sweden) a few posts back and I showed you that even though there is no mandated shelter in place, public transit use has more than halved, vehicular everyday commutes as well, more people telecommuting.

They certainly claim to be doing those things.  Here is a report from yesterday:

Quote

[T]he Swedish authorities claim that they are doing exactly the same thing as all that - most other countries are. But it's all about flattening the curve. It's all about getting - well-protect the risk groups and wash your hands. And stay home if you're sick, and work at home if you can, et cetera. It's just the way they do it, it's a bit different. And they also stress very often that you have to make - put restrictions in place that can keep for an extended period of time.

Sweden will be an interesting one to watch at the end of things.  8.4% of people testing positive in Sweden have died and 16% have died or are in intensive care.  While accurate for %s of people testing positive, the limited testing means those are inflated as a % of the total infected population.  You don't test much, you get higher %s for severe cases among those testing positive. Right now the %s of the total population are similar to those of neighboring countries.

[JayBirdHawk]

This doesn't look good for the NBA restarting, Sigh.

Quote

There was already pessimism about the NBA finishing its season.

This should only add to it.

The Chinese Basketball Association is facing another setback in its efforts to resume play in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic.

Sources told ESPN that league officials met overnight to discuss the fate of its season, which has been on hold since Jan. 24, and elected to postpone its calendar again, this time until at least July.

Unlike the Chinese Basketball Association, at least the NBA is sparing everyone a series of false starts. NBA commissioner Adam Silver said he’d make no decisions until at least May.

The coronavirus pandemic began in China. Though there are numerous other factors, that at least indicated China would be ahead of the United States on a standard recovery timeline (if one exists). If that’s the case, forget talk of the NBA returning in June. The CBA isn’t even returning that soon.

 

 

https://www.google.com/amp/s/nba.nbcsports.com/2020/04/14/report-chinese-basketball-association-delays-season-until-at-least-july/amp/

 

Quote

China's northeast Heilongjiang province which borders Russia has become the new battleground against the coronavirus as authorities reported the highest number of new daily cases in nearly six weeks, driven by infected travellers from overseas.

China fears a rise in imported cases could spark a second wave of COVID-19 and push the country back into a state of near paralysis.

A total of 108 new coronavirus cases were reported in mainland China on Sunday, up from 99 a day earlier and marking the highest number of cases since 143 infections were reported on March 5.

The National Health Commission said 98 of the new cases were imported, a new record. A total of 49 Chinese nationals who entered Heilongjiang province from Russia tested positive.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.france24.com/en/20200413-china-s-new-covid-19-cases-rise-to-near-6-week-high

[bleachkit]

1 minute ago, AHF said:

They certainly claim to be doing those things.  Here is a report from yesterday:

Sweden will be an interesting one to watch at the end of things.  8.4% of people testing positive in Sweden have died and 16% have died or are in intensive care.  While accurate for %s of people testing positive, the limited testing means those are inflated as a % of the total infected population.  You don't test much, you get higher %s for severe cases among those testing positive. Right now the %s of the total population are similar to those of neighboring countries.

In countless non-western countries there has been no measures taken of any kind, or very limited ones. Viral type flu like illnesses spread everywhere and quickly. On average there are 1,000,000,000 people who get the flu globally. If those models, which I find highly questionable, are correct, a huge swath of third world nations, especially with their limited resources, would be having tremendous increases in hospitalizations and deaths. That flat out is not happening. The models were using an inaccurate/inflated fatality rate. That's why the numbers are wrong. I am going to keep beating that drum, because it's true.

[bleachkit]

2 minutes ago, JayBirdHawk said:

This doesn't look good for the NBA restarting, Sigh.

 

 

https://www.google.com/amp/s/nba.nbcsports.com/2020/04/14/report-chinese-basketball-association-delays-season-until-at-least-july/amp/

 

https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.france24.com/en/20200413-china-s-new-covid-19-cases-rise-to-near-6-week-high

But they want crowds if I'm not mistaken. NBA is planning on no fans, which is a big difference.

[JayBirdHawk]

4 minutes ago, bleachkit said:

But they want crowds if I'm not mistaken. NBA is planning on no fans, which is a big difference.

No, the initial restart was without fans. 3 players had fevers the day they tried to restart. It was put on hold for April 15th, now delayed until at least July 1.

[JayBirdHawk]

14 minutes ago, bleachkit said:

In countless non-western countries there has been no measures taken of any kind, or very limited ones. Viral type flu like illnesses spread everywhere and quickly. On average there are 1,000,000,000 people who get the flu globally. If those models, which I find highly questionable, are correct, a huge swath of third world nations, especially with their limited resources, would be having tremendous increases in hospitalizations and deaths. That flat out is not happening. The models were using an inaccurate/inflated fatality rate. That's why the numbers are wrong. I am going to keep beating that drum, because it's true.

I'll post this link again that shows worldwide what measures each country has in place.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-52103747

 

 

Even in my neck of the woods where I grew up. They are enforcing curfews and are currently under a 24 hour lockdown until Thursday.

They'll reopen for essential business, grocery shopping, etc Friday and Saturday....all done by Zones (half the island Fri, the next Sat.) with social distance measures, masks in place. to limit contact.

They currently have 12 cases, first case was March 25th. 2 persons travelled to NYK for a funeral and got it. The next 6 traveled from neighboring islands and 1 from London. Other positive testees were in some kind of contact with one of the infected. There are some test results pending from persons who were in contact with the original 2.

8 have recovered.

[bleachkit]

40 minutes ago, AHF said:

10 times 0.1% is 1%.  That said, I can't get behind a bet on this topic.  Too morbid for me.

Yes precisely why 1% is way too high to support the data. I think Covid is 2x as deadly as the flu, so 0.2% fatality rate. A few weeks ago, there was an outbreak of Covid-19 on the USS Theodore Rosevelt. Sailors in close quarters, nearly all were exposed to Covid-19. It's actually a good test case to look at what happened. 4,800 crew members were tested. Around 600 positive results. So 12.5 percent were positive with Covid-19. 1 Sailor died (RIP). Fatality rate=0.17%. So those numbers are similar to the ones I have been projecting for some time, give or take a few percentage points.

[bleachkit]

6 minutes ago, JayBirdHawk said:

I'll post this link again that shows worldwide what measures each country has in place.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-52103747

 

 

Even in my neck of the woods where I grew up. They are enforcing curfews and are currently under a 24 hour lockdown until Thursday.

They'll reopen for essential business, grocery shopping, etc Friday and Saturday....all done by Zones (half the island Fri, the next Sat.) with social distance measures, masks in place. to limit contact.

They currently have 12 cases, first case was March 25th. 8 have recovered.

That's Europe, what about Africa, South America and Asia? If we have a truly terrible pandemic on our hands like the models suggest those third world countries will get obliterated.

[macdaddy]

3 minutes ago, bleachkit said:

Yes precisely why 1% is way too high to support the data. I think Covid is 2x as deadly as the flu, so 0.2% fatality rate. A few weeks ago, there was an outbreak of Covid-19 on the USS Theodore Rosevelt. Sailors in close quarters, nearly all were exposed to Covid-19. It's actually a good test case to look at what happened. 4,800 crew members were tested. Around 600 positive results. So 12.5 percent were positive with Covid-19. 1 Sailor died (RIP). Fatality rate=0.17%. So those numbers are similar to the ones I have been projecting for some time, give or take a few percentage points.

.17% in a population of almost entirely under 40, very fit individuals.  

[macdaddy]

South Korea has tested over 500,000 people.  Only 10,000 were postive and of those 222 died.  So that's over 2% in a place that is testing a lot of people.  

[bleachkit]

1 minute ago, macdaddy said:

.17% in a population of almost entirely under 40, very fit individuals.  

Yes, the old are vulnerable, those young are at much less risk generally. My guess is fatality rate is anywhere from 0.15 to 0.3.% I was just using this as an example, it's not enough to draw definitive conclusions. 

[JayBirdHawk]

12 minutes ago, bleachkit said:

That's Europe, what about Africa, South America and Asia? If we have a truly terrible pandemic on our hands like the models suggest those third world countries will get obliterated.

Check the link...they are ALL in there. I didn't want to post them all. MOST have measures in place to LIMIT the spread.

[bleachkit]

10 minutes ago, macdaddy said:

South Korea has tested over 500,000 people.  Only 10,000 were postive and of those 222 died.  So that's over 2% in a place that is testing a lot of people.  

Still their number of deaths is low. There is no way on god's green earth Covid-19 has a 2% fatality rate. We would have so, so many more deaths by now throughout the world. Spanish flu had a 2% fatality rate. This is not the Spanish flu.

Edited April 14, 2020 by bleachkit

[bleachkit]

2 minutes ago, JayBirdHawk said:

Check the link...they are ALL in there. I didn't want to post them all. MOST have measures in place.

Well Gambia, Somaia, Nicaragua, Cambodia are doing nothing. Many of those countries are listed are not strictly enforcing policies. I would love to see a world wide study on this in a few months. 

[TheNorthCydeRises]

First day back at work.  Here are some of the changes COVID-19 has caused:

• Orange "X's" painted all over the floor every 6 feet, where hourly employees line up at the time clock to clock out.
• Plastic like partitions everywhere in which people may be within 6 feet of each other.  This includes
  • Office cubicles
  • Floor work areas in which people may be working beside each other
  • Between bathroom sinks with more than 1 sink
  • Between each urinal with the partition going up to 7 feet
  • 2-person Powered Industrial Vehicles ( PIV's ) must have a glass partition between driver and passenger 
• Disposable surgical type masks given to you as you walk in the building by nurses
• Forehead temperature readings whenever you walk in the door by the nurses
• Staff meetings occurring outside, in a large open room, or via Skype ( audio only ) . . hopefully we can upgrade to Zoom soon.

Most of our financial, sales and material planner staff are working from home.  Engineering, safety, and production are at the facility.

[JayBirdHawk]

Some Good News for Italy? Hopefully.

Quote

The number of new coronavirus cases in Italy fell Tuesday to its lowest level in a month.

Italy’s civil protection agency is reporting 2,972 new cases of COVID-19 in the last 24 hours, which is the fewest since March 13, when 2,547 cases were reported, according to the Associated Press.

The statistic comes two days after Italy posted its lowest daily total of deaths in three weeks.