2020-21 The Current Ask Supes

[Spud2nique]

4 hours ago, thecampster said:

This is why I typically don't argue with fanatics

Then don’t “argue” with anyone on this site. We all fanatics here.

[Spud2nique]

4 hours ago, thecampster said:

They only hear what they want to hear. 

[thecampster]

14 minutes ago, georgia said:

So basically none of those teams can sign Collins except for the Spurs?

Depends on any moves they make but as currently constructed, no.

[sturt]

The wording that Schlenk and Ressler have chosen lead to the conclusion that they're not prepared to do a max contract on JC, so I respect the possibility that a team that's starting over llike SAS could sense an opportunity and try to seize it... but... us having that 5th year in our back pocket I would like to think is our saving grace.

4yrs  x $28m = $112m (simple math, excluding the 5% raises) = 5 yrs x $22.4m = $112m (simple math excluding the 8% raises)

I think $25m is and always has been the number, so I naturally think $22.4m with 8% raises, which still exceeds what SAS could do, is completely doable.

 

Edit

I evidently need to clarify... it's not that I'm suggesting offering JC $22.4m/yr, and that he would be satisfied with that. My point in showing that math was more simply to demonstrate that even SAS' best offer is fairly easily trumped by an offer from ATL that I think most of us believe is toward the low end of what ATL will offer. (Again, I think $25m/yr is likely, but what do I know. It's certainly in-line (dollar-value adjusted, and as a percentage of that season's salary cap) with the offer PHI made to Tobias Harris at a moment in time when some of the same conversation was being held--ie, "not quite a max player, but the potential is definitely there."

And if the question is "But does JC really value that 5th year if he's getting paid something less for that year than he thinks he would get on the open market?" my reaction is, if he's like most players, yes, guaranteed big money has most typically been regarded by players and their agents as a proverbial bird in the hand, worth more than the "two in the bush." Too much can happen in 4 years, so that 5th isn't taken for granted.

[thecampster]

13 minutes ago, Spud2nique said:

No I still believe Okongwu can handle it.

The most accurate predictor of a person being able to shoot from 15-25 feet is FT%.  

Again, I'm not saying he can't. I'm saying we would take a very serious step back if we let JC walk and declare Kong a starting 4. He needs to break 80% from the free throw line before he's a good enough mechanical shooter to be considered an outside shooter. You put him on the floor with Capela for long stretches and you're playing 4 on 5 on offense.

[kg01]

Rumors on the Nix offer on a Sexton deal ...

Not terrible for CLE assuming folks are still high on Toppin.

I just always expect CLE to do something dumb so this'll probably all blow up in dey faces.

[Spud2nique]

4 minutes ago, thecampster said:

The most accurate predictor of a person being able to shoot from 15-25 feet is FT%.  

Ya Okongwu’s weakness is definitely at the line. I’d give him this summer though and see how much better he can get. I’m guessing 72-75% FT for Okongwu next year. 
 

 

[thecampster]

4 minutes ago, kg01 said:

Rumors on the Nix offer on a Sexton deal ...

Not terrible for CLE assuming folks are still high on Toppin.

I just always expect CLE to do something dumb so this'll probably all blow up in dey faces.

??? Toppin, really. I'd trade this year's first straight up for Toppin. What did that kid do to be considered part of a package?

[thecampster]

Just now, Spud2nique said:

Ya Okongwu’s weakness is definitely at the line. I’d give him this summer though and see how much better he can get. I’m guessing 72-75% FT for Okongwu next year. 
 

 

He's just stiff, just not as stiff as Clint. Just like Reddish worked on core ligament strength while out, I'd have Kong working with a professional on flexibility. As I joked about with Clint, I'm more serious about OO....He should get a serious yoga instructor and commit. It would do him wonders. Taking up Salsa dancing wouldn't hurt either. Just needs flexibility training. Needs to loosen up.

[Spud2nique]

If I’m the Cavs I pull the trigger on this dealZ having Garland team up with Toppin is more hope than Garland and Sexton trying to work some small backcourt they got going on. At least this gives them a Trae/Collins LITE type of a start. 
 

Although Supes said Toppin was better than Collins before the draft last year…

[Spud2nique]

3 minutes ago, thecampster said:

He's just stiff, just not as stiff as Clint. Just like Reddish worked on core ligament strength while out, I'd have Kong working with a professional on flexibility. As I joked about with Clint, I'm more serious about OO....He should get a serious yoga instructor and commit. It would do him wonders. Taking up Salsa dancing wouldn't hurt either. Just needs flexibility training. Needs to loosen up.

You’ve been taking Yoga yourself huh Camp? Don’t you fool me!!!!! You got that laid back free mind hippy high goin on right now don’t you? 

Ya, Clint is stiff for sure. Okongwu though seems like he’s playing possum with the way he walks around the court vs the way he moves when in full action. He does still have room for flexibility, most do and beneficial for most.

[kg01]

7 minutes ago, thecampster said:

??? Toppin, really. I'd trade this year's first straight up for Toppin. What did that kid do to be considered part of a package?

I get the impression Nix fans think Robinson is all they need as a big.  Maybe the org agrees?

I've never been high on Toppin so I'm like, whatevs bro...

Maybe NYK expects to get emoLove in the deal too?  Ya know, since they're in win-now mode.

3 minutes ago, Spud2nique said:

If I’m the Cavs I pull the trigger on this dealZ having Garland team up with Toppin is more hope than Garland and Sexton trying to work some small backcourt they got going on. At least this gives them a Trae/Collins LITE type of a start. 
 

Although Supes said Toppin was better than Collins before the draft last year…

Heh, ol' supes backed off that after a while.  I'm sure he holds a secret candle for Obi though.

[thecampster]

2 minutes ago, kg01 said:

I get the impression Nix fans think Robinson is all they need as a big.  Maybe the org agrees?

I've never been high on Toppin so I'm like, whatevs bro...

Maybe NYK expects to get emoLove in the deal too?  Ya know, since they're in win-now mode.

Heh, ol' supes backed off that after a while.  I'm sure he holds a secret candle for Obi though.

Toppin = Bobby Portis like play. He's a fire guy, with incredible hops. He can play outside of skill but he has skill too, can shoot from the outside. He gets lost on defense but that's part coaching. I'd take him in a flash. No questions asked. I'm not starting him today but he's getting 15 minutes a game to develop.

[Spud2nique]

2 minutes ago, thecampster said:

Toppin = Bobby Portis like play.

@NBASupes GETTEM!!!!! 

I’m even a bit perturbed at the comparison. 

[smoove31210]

I would probably compare Toppin to more of a Shawn Marion....just my .02 cents

Edited July 13, 2021 by smoove31210

[thecampster]

1 minute ago, smoove31210 said:

I would probably compare Toppin to more of a Shawn Marion....just my .02 cents

I'm comparing more the energizer bunny, fire type. Not necessarily similar games.

[kg01]

12 minutes ago, thecampster said:

Toppin = Bobby Portis like play. He's a fire guy, with incredible hops. He can play outside of skill but he has skill too, can shoot from the outside. He gets lost on defense but that's part coaching. I'd take him in a flash. No questions asked. I'm not starting him today but he's getting 15 minutes a game to develop.

Yeah and that's probably where I differed with supes before that draft.  He's a guy that belongs in the 20's, not a lotto pick, imho.  Useful but needing development.  Not a franchise guy, which is how many billed him.

I'd take him for our pick, for sure.  Give the Nix that rare 3IAR picks 19-21.

[AHF]

1 hour ago, Carmine said:

Let them put there money where their mouth is. Hawks aren't matching any max offers, otherwise he'd have been extended a long time ago.

While that could be true, it isn't necessarily true.  If JC was like Trae and an automatic max guy, then you could conclude see red flags in the failure to have already locked him up.  But JC isn't an automatic max guy.  I'd say his most likely outcome is a sub-max contract.  In that context, it makes all the sense in the world for the Hawks to offer him something less than the max and let him test the market if he won't take it even if they intend to match a max offer.  If you sign him to a max offer before letting him test the market, you ensure the worst case outcome and if you did it last summer then you would be doing without seeing how he performed with a more talented team and without seeing if he suffered some major injury, regressed, etc.  If you let him test the market, you open the possibility that he won't get any more from other teams or that he will get something less than the max which would allow you to match and keep him for less than you would have had to spend if they simply matched.

So there is a logic to why they might intend to match any offer, including a max offer, but still didn't already go ahead and max him out.  

Whether they in fact will match a max offer, I can't say.  But I do think that it would make sense even there because of the needs of this team for the next few years and the likelihood that you can trade him later on if you need to clear the salary down the line.

[AHF]

1 hour ago, sturt said:

The wording that Schlenk and Ressler have chosen lead to the conclusion that they're not prepared to do a max contract on JC, so I respect the possibility that a team that's starting over llike SAS could sense an opportunity and try to seize it... but... us having that 5th year in our back pocket I would like to think is our saving grace.

4yrs  x $28m = $112m (simple math, excluding the 5% raises) = 5 yrs x $22.4m = $112m (simple math excluding the 8% raises)

I think $25m is and always has been the number, so I naturally think $22.4m with 8% raises, which still exceeds what SAS could do, is completely doable.

 

I'm a bit confused by this.  You think which of these is better?

SA Offer

Year 1 - $28M

Year 2 - $29.4M

Year 3 - $30.9M

Year 4 - $32.4M

Year 5 - Whatever the market bears

 

Atlanta Offer

Year 1 - $22.4M

Year 2 - $24.2M

Year 3 - $26.1M

Year 4 - $28.2M

Year 5 - $30.5M

 

SA Total:  $120.7M + Year 5

Atl Total:  $131M

 

(For the sake of simplicity I'll ignore the present value of the dollars here but I do have to note that more money sooner is worth more in real value.)

If you think Atlanta's offer is better, you are saying that John Collins values the money he will be able to get on a new contract at age 28 at less than $10.3M.  That seems utterly implausible to me to believe that he thinks he is currently worth the max but values the security of $10M more than what he could get a team to pay him when he is 28 years old.

 

[thecampster]

14 minutes ago, AHF said:

While that could be true, it isn't necessarily true.  If JC was like Trae and an automatic max guy, then you could conclude see red flags in the failure to have already locked him up.  But JC isn't an automatic max guy.  I'd say his most likely outcome is a sub-max contract.  In that context, it makes all the sense in the world for the Hawks to offer him something less than the max and let him test the market if he won't take it even if they intend to match a max offer.  If you sign him to a max offer before letting him test the market, you ensure the worst case outcome and if you did it last summer then you would be doing without seeing how he performed with a more talented team and without seeing if he suffered some major injury, regressed, etc.  If you let him test the market, you open the possibility that he won't get any more from other teams or that he will get something less than the max which would allow you to match and keep him for less than you would have had to spend if they simply matched.

So there is a logic to why they might intend to match any offer, including a max offer, but still didn't already go ahead and max him out.  

Whether they in fact will match a max offer, I can't say.  But I do think that it would make sense even there because of the needs of this team for the next few years and the likelihood that you can trade him later on if you need to clear the salary down the line.

I have him at give or take 10% around 20 mil to start.