We've NEVER had a team with an aggregate ceiling this high

[sturt]

  

3 minutes ago, RedDawg#8 said:

Yep, I totally deviated from the OP. My bad everyone, this reminder was for me lol

 

 

Not a problem, Red.... and not trying to discourage that vein of conversation necessarily, either. But @thecampster's post demonstrates it's good to make the distinction.

[REHawksFan]

1 hour ago, RedDawg#8 said:

Will he find ways to be slightly less of a defensive liability than his 755th place ranking (of 755!) in three-year dRAPM suggests he has been?

This is what I'm alluding to.  Venecie claims he's 755 out of 755 in dRAPM over the 3 years he's been in the NBA.  BUT, his 20-21 season ranks 169th out of 534 in dRPM per ESPN.  I'm not sure how to find the dRAPM stat for this year, but it assuredly isn't significantly worse than the others.  Trae is being downgraded because 2 of his 3 years were played on teams with barely any NBA level talent and he was abysmal on defense.  Not the case any longer as we've all seen.  He's nothing great, but he's not worst in the NBA either.  

[marco102]

3 hours ago, REHawksFan said:

I know we've discussed it already in other threads, but it bares repeating that Venecie seems to underrate Trae heavily. Part his own personal bias, but also partly because he's using, in part, metrics that aggregate 3 years worth of data.  For any Hawks player that played on the team the last 2 years (Trae's rookie and sophomore seasons), they are going to skew HEAVILY downward.  So in this regard, I'd also argue most of the Hawk-drafted players are underrated based on how bad the teams were they played on in their early seasons.  

I think the point here is a good one - that the Hawks likely have more depth than any other team in the NBA.  But I also think the overall ratings likely undersell just how good that talent actually is.    

Venecie is very high on Trae and always has been. He couldn't figure out why other media members thought he was a bad player. 

Seth Partnow wrote this article and he's always been super low on Trae. I had a rant about this in another thread, that I posted the incorrect snippet to. 

Lol.

[RedDawg#8]

1 hour ago, REHawksFan said:

This is what I'm alluding to.  Venecie claims he's 755 out of 755 in dRAPM over the 3 years he's been in the NBA.  BUT, his 20-21 season ranks 169th out of 534 in dRPM per ESPN.  I'm not sure how to find the dRAPM stat for this year, but it assuredly isn't significantly worse than the others.  Trae is being downgraded because 2 of his 3 years were played on teams with barely any NBA level talent and he was abysmal on defense.  Not the case any longer as we've all seen.  He's nothing great, but he's not worst in the NBA either.  

Agreed. I hate when they do this too. 

[bleachkit]

4 hours ago, NBASupes said:

This has to be the year we win it all because we are likely to lose Bogi, Wright, and Gallo next year. Maybe even Capela. 

After this year it's going to be harder to afford pricey vets. Probably have to shop in the bargain bin like Lakers and Golden State. 

[REHawksFan]

1 hour ago, marco102 said:

Venecie is very high on Trae and always has been. He couldn't figure out why other media members thought he was a bad player. 

Seth Partnow wrote this article and he's always been super low on Trae. I had a rant about this in another thread, that I posted the incorrect snippet to. 

Lol.

By bad. I thought it was Venecie that wrote it. Point stands though about using 3 ur metrics.  

[AHF]

5 minutes ago, REHawksFan said:

By bad. I thought it was Venecie that wrote it. Point stands though about using 3 ur metrics.  

That jumped way out at me when I read it.  Like why would you talk all about this season and suddenly drop back to 2018-19?  That screamed agenda.

[NBASupes]

1 hour ago, bleachkit said:

After this year it's going to be harder to afford pricey vets. Probably have to shop in the bargain bin like Lakers and Golden State. 

Develop our youth like Toronto and Miami 

[REHawksFan]

4 minutes ago, AHF said:

That jumped way out at me when I read it.  Like why would you talk all about this season and suddenly drop back to 2018-19?  That screamed agenda.

They claim the 3 yr stats are more predictive of future results. Dont know if that's valid or not though. But regardless, it doesn't make sense in certain situations like with the Hawks. 

[NBASupes]

Durham is trash

[ATLHawks3]

Yes.

Edited August 16, 2021 by ATLHawks3

[marco102]

This guy gets giddy over the Hawks depth. 

 

[sillent]

5 hours ago, RedDawg#8 said:

Here is the full list. Keep in mind they are ranked only in tiers and sub-tiers, not individually 1 thru 125. Names are alphabetical within each sub tier.

 

2021 NBA Player Tiers: The Top 125

TIER 1A: 1-3

Giannis Antetokounmpo
Kevin Durant
LeBron James

TIER 1B: 4-7
James Harden
Kawhi Leonard
Nikola Jokic
Stephen Curry

TIER 2A: 8-10
Anthony Davis
Joel Embiid
Luka Doncic

TIER 2B: 11-14
Damian Lillard
Jimmy Butler
Paul George
Rudy Gobert

TIER 2C: 15-19
Bam Adebayo
Chris Paul
Jayson Tatum
Khris Middleton
Kyrie Irving

TIER 3A: 20-23
Devin Booker
Jrue Holiday 
Trae Young
Zion Williamson

TIER 3B: 24-30
Bradley Beal
Donovan Mitchell
Ja Morant
Jamal Murray
Karl-Anthony Towns
Mike Conley
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander

TIER 3C:31-36
Ben Simmons
Draymond Green
Jaylen Brown
Pascal Siakam
Russell Westbrook
Zach LaVine

TIER 4A: 37-56
Brandon Ingram
CJ McCollum
Clint Capela
De'Aaron Fox
DeMar DeRozan
Domantas Sabonis
Fred VanVleet
Gordon Hayward
Jerami Grant
Joe Harris
Joe Ingles
Julius Randle
Kemba Walker
Kyle Lowry
LaMelo Ball
Malcolm Brogdon
Myles Turner
Nikola Vucevic
Robert Covington
Seth Curry

TIER 4B: 57-79
Aaron Gordon
Al Horford
Bogdan Bogdanovic
Bojan Bogdanovic
Brook Lopez
Caris LeVert
Christian Wood
Deandre Ayton
De'Andre Hunter
Derrick Rose
Dillon Brooks
Jae Crowder
John Collins
Jonas Valanciunas
Jusuf Nurkic
Klay Thompson
Kristaps Porzingis
Marcus Smart
Michael Porter Jr.
Mikal Bridges
OG Anunoby
Spencer Dinwiddie
Tobias Harris

TIER 5: 80-125
Alex Caruso
Andrew Wiggins
Anthony Edwards
Blake Griffin
Bruce Brown
Buddy Hield
Cameron Payne
Collin Sexton
D'Angelo Russell
Danilo Gallinari
Danny Green
Davis Bertans
Dejounte Murray
Dennis Schröder
Derrick White
Devonte' Graham
Duncan Robinson
Evan Fournier
Gary Trent Jr.
Harrison Barnes
Immanuel Quickley
Ivica Zubac
Jaren Jackson Jr.
Jarrett Allen
Jeff Green
Jonathan Isaac
Jordan Clarkson
Kelly Olynyk
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope
Kevin Huerter
Kyle Anderson
Lonzo Ball
Marcus Morris Sr.
Nerlens Noel
Nicolas Batum
Norman Powell
P.J. Washington
Patrick Beverley
Reggie Jackson
Richaun Holmes
Robert Williams III
Steven Adams
T.J. Warren
Terry Rozier
Tim Hardaway Jr.
Tyrese Haliburton

Thanks for showing the list.

It brings me to another question that baffles me every time I hear it brought up.

Who is the "superstar" you would trade any of our young core for?

To me anyone of those "top 19" would be flawed for our team. They are either aging (LeBron, Durant, Curry). Injury prone (AD, Joel Embiid, Kawhi) or still need a little work (Giannis). Redundant (Kyrie, Dame) or really don't have an upside as high as our players.

I could possibly see Zion as a "superstar" guy we have our eye on but I wouldn't trade any group of our current young players for any of the top 19.

I can easily see Trae, Cam and even Dre as superstars. John should be an allstar this up and coming season. Huerter and OO can definitely be high level starters. Sharife and Jalen definitely have the potential to be elite.

Even our "role" players like Skylar Mays could be a good starter or high level bench guy on other teams.

I'm glad many more fans are starting to recognize what we have. Also for those of us that have been long time fans and have been thru many struggles and disappointments I hope you're aware that this is not any of those teams.

It's a new day in the A and get ready to go  from underdogs to top dogs for atleast the next 5 - 10yrs. We are miles ahead of the competition and these next 2 off seasons  should finalize that.

[Hawkmoor]

The only teams that can come anywhere close to this deep are the Golden State teams and some of the Clippers teams. This team is deeper than those.

[REHawksFan]

36 minutes ago, sillent said:

Thanks for showing the list.

It brings me to another question that baffles me every time I hear it brought up.

Who is the "superstar" you would trade any of our young core for?

To me anyone of those "top 19" would be flawed for our team. They are either aging (LeBron, Durant, Curry). Injury prone (AD, Joel Embiid, Kawhi) or still need a little work (Giannis). Redundant (Kyrie, Dame) or really don't have an upside as high as our players.

I could possibly see Zion as a "superstar" guy we have our eye on but I wouldn't trade any group of our current young players for any of the top 19.

I can easily see Trae, Cam and even Dre as superstars. John should be an allstar this up and coming season. Huerter and OO can definitely be high level starters. Sharife and Jalen definitely have the potential to be elite.

Even our "role" players like Skylar Mays could be a good starter or high level bench guy on other teams.

I'm glad many more fans are starting to recognize what we have. Also for those of us that have been long time fans and have been thru many struggles and disappointments I hope you're aware that this is not any of those teams.

It's a new day in the A and get ready to go  from underdogs to top dogs for atleast the next 5 - 10yrs. We are miles ahead of the competition and these next 2 off seasons  should finalize that.

I tend to think you are overrating some of our guys a bit. Depending on the outgoing assets, I'd certainly trade a package of players for KD or Giannis. 

[sillent]

1 hour ago, REHawksFan said:

I tend to think you are overrating some of our guys a bit. Depending on the outgoing assets, I'd certainly trade a package of players for KD or Giannis. 

I tend to think too many fall for the over rating of the media.

Also we are building a dynasty here. I wouldn't trade for Durant just to get 1 to possibly 3 championships before we'd have reset/restart.

Giannis is elite as well but until he gets a 3 pointer and his free throws up to par would he really be worth changing the chemistry of our team or worth trading JC, Hunter/Cam/Huerter (atleast 3 of the 4) and some picks because that would be his asking price. 

I'm not over rating just looking at the team as currently constructed and realizing we will be looking at a few of our players 3 to 5yrs down the road that we're looking at the top of that list.

For once we have young players that can actually reach and exceed projections and it wouldn't be worth giving up on them before their prime.

Too many struggle to see what's right in front of them until hindsight. I pride myself in not being one of those people. That usually keeps me ahead of the crowd.

Edited August 17, 2021 by sillent

[RandomFan]

3 hours ago, sillent said:

Thanks for showing the list.

It brings me to another question that baffles me every time I hear it brought up.

Who is the "superstar" you would trade any of our young core for?

Erm, easily I'd trade a package of players for Giannis, KD, Jokic, or Bam Adebayo, probably Tatum too. 

Edited August 17, 2021 by RandomFan

[sillent]

27 minutes ago, RandomFan said:

Erm, easily I'd trade a package of players for Giannis, KD, Jokic, or Bam Adebayo, probably Tatum too. 

Name the players... What package would you put together?

Be honest with yourself as well and make sure we are a better not worse team from your trade. Also make sure the trade is realistic.

[niremetal]

What some of y'all gotta remember is that few players actually reach their ceiling. And most don't get close to it--plenty of players peak during their rookie contracts, including guys who are super-hyped or who show tons of promise early.

I'm remembering especially the history of my second love (Blazers)...that team looked LOADED going into 2010. But nearly everyone fell short of their ceilings. Brandon Roy, Greg Oden, and Martell Webster never hit their peaks thanks to injuries (and Oden due to a host of other reasons too), Batum due to lack of drive, etc. The only guy who did hit his peak was Aldridge--but he and Damian Lillard (who the Blazers were able to get later because their earlier generation of young talent imploded) weren't able to make it work, and Aldridge left for SA in his prime. They've experienced a second version of that with Lillard/McCollum/Nurkic. Result is that a team that had a #1 pick and drafted 3 All-NBA players in a span of 6 years* have never won a single game in the Conference Finals.

(* Here it's worth remembering that for all the flashes of talent our players have shown and despite my grumbling that Trae should have been on the All-NBA Third Team last year...our roster currently has a total of 0 All-NBA appearances among them)

Even looking back at the Hawks teams from the late aughts...Josh had the makings of an elite two-way power forward, then plateaued because he never figured out how to play on-ball D, shot too many jumpers, and never put enough work into his post game, where I still think he could have dominated. He never figured out his strengths and put in the time needed to hone those to elite levels, so he never reached his ceiling.

Marvin had a smooth jumper, great athleticism, and was a solid on-ball defender 1 through 4. He had all the tools necessary to be an All-Star combo forward. But he peaked in '08-'09 instead of continuing to improve. Like Josh, he never developed handles, but his failure to become better than "above average" stemmed more from playing too much within himself rather than pushing his limits (kind of the opposite of Josh).

Hell, I'd argue that JJ (who never felt the need to become anything other than a great ISO player after he left the Suns) never hit his ceiling either. Only guys from that team who hit the ceilings I saw for them were Horford (and it took him awhile...imagine if he'd developed the deep ball sooner) and Teague (who became a better shooter than I thought he would be, but a lesser passer).

----------------------------------------------------------

I totally agree that this squad has a higher collective ceiling than any of those squads. But we'd have to be the luckiest team in history for even a majority of our guys to hit their ceilings. In all likelihood, several will crash well before then, whether due to reasons within or beyond their (and the team's) control.

That's why a consolidation trade makes sense if it appears highly likely to give the team a short-to-medium-term boost. A bird in hand is worth two in the bush and all that.

Edited August 17, 2021 by niremetal

[REHawksFan]

42 minutes ago, niremetal said:

What some of y'all gotta remember is that few players actually reach their ceiling. And most don't get close to it--plenty of players peak during their rookie contracts, including guys who are super-hyped or who show tons of promise early.

I'm remembering especially the history of my second love (Blazers)...that team looked LOADED going into 2010. But nearly everyone fell short of their ceilings. Brandon Roy, Greg Oden, and Martell Webster never hit their peaks thanks to injuries (and Oden due to a host of other reasons too), Batum due to lack of drive, etc. The only guy who did hit his peak was Aldridge--but he and Damian Lillard (who the Blazers were able to get later because their earlier generation of young talent imploded) weren't able to make it work, and Aldridge left for SA in his prime. They've experienced a second version of that with Lillard/McCollum/Nurkic. Result is that a team that had a #1 pick and drafted 3 All-NBA players in a span of 6 years* have never won a single game in the Conference Finals.

(* Here it's worth remembering that for all the flashes of talent our players have shown and despite my grumbling that Trae should have been on the All-NBA Third Team last year...our roster currently has a total of 0 All-NBA appearances among them)

Even looking back at the Hawks teams from the late aughts...Josh had the makings of an elite two-way power forward, then plateaued because he never figured out how to play on-ball D, shot too many jumpers, and never put enough work into his post game, where I still think he could have dominated. He never figured out his strengths and put in the time needed to hone those to elite levels, so he never reached his ceiling.

Marvin had a smooth jumper, great athleticism, and was a solid on-ball defender 1 through 4. He had all the tools necessary to be an All-Star combo forward. But he peaked in '08-'09 instead of continuing to improve. Like Josh, he never developed handles, but his failure to become better than "above average" stemmed more from playing too much within himself rather than pushing his limits (kind of the opposite of Josh).

Hell, I'd argue that JJ (who never felt the need to become anything other than a great ISO player after he left the Suns) never hit his ceiling either. Only guys from that team who hit the ceilings I saw for them were Horford (and it took him awhile...imagine if he'd developed the deep ball sooner) and Teague (who became a better shooter than I thought he would be, but a lesser passer).

----------------------------------------------------------

I totally agree that this squad has a higher collective ceiling than any of those squads. But we'd have to be the luckiest team in history for even a majority of our guys to hit their ceilings. In all likelihood, several will crash well before then, whether due to reasons within or beyond their (and the team's) control.

That's why a consolidation trade makes sense if it appears highly likely to give the team a short-to-medium-term boost. A bird in hand is worth two in the bush and all that.

This is a good post. 

Trading potential stardom for actual stardom is a good strategy.  It's pretty naive to just assume all of our players will reach their currently perceived ceilings. The likelihood of that happening is nominal. 

6 hours ago, sillent said:

I tend to think too many fall for the over rating of the media.

Also we are building a dynasty here. I wouldn't trade for Durant just to get 1 to possibly 3 championships before we'd have reset/restart.

Giannis is elite as well but until he gets a 3 pointer and his free throws up to par would he really be worth changing the chemistry of our team or worth trading JC, Hunter/Cam/Huerter (atleast 3 of the 4) and some picks because that would be his asking price. 

I'm not over rating just looking at the team as currently constructed and realizing we will be looking at a few of our players 3 to 5yrs down the road that we're looking at the top of that list.

For once we have young players that can actually reach and exceed projections and it wouldn't be worth giving up on them before their prime.

Too many struggle to see what's right in front of them until hindsight. I pride myself in not being one of those people. That usually keeps me ahead of the crowd.

It's nice that you think you are a visionary or whatever but you are being extremely naive by assume all our players reach their peak. That doesn't happen. Trading potential for actual elite players is a wise move. 

Also, I'd trade every player on our team for 3 guaranteed titles.  Dynasties are so so rare. I'm not tryin to be greedy. Hold out for the dynasty and you are more likely to win none than multiple.