Early Season thoughts

[NBASupes]

6 minutes ago, JayBirdHawk said:

I think it's too soon to make sweeping judgements.  This is the feeling out period.  Teams will start compiling tape on players and teams, then we'll see who still remains.

Sweeping is one thing, I am just talking about this year to start. As I stated on the Heat, this is a marathon, not a sprint. 

[macdaddy]

Pacers, Magic, Cavs were all 4-2 at this point last season.  

[Spud2nique]

41 minutes ago, NBASupes said:

LaMelo as a less versatile Magic Johnson

Would you trade Trae for Lamelo?

[NBASupes]

4 minutes ago, Spud2nique said:

Would you trade Trae for Lamelo?

No. Because Trae is superior in the playoffs which is the only one that matters. We already seen how Ben Simmons who was superior to Trae last year looked in the playoffs to Trae. He wasn't even in the same conversation. The regular season is a open court game, the playoffs is a half court game. The best like MJ and Bron can do it all. Bird and Magic are good at them all even if they specialize (Magic-Open, Bird-Half). Melo is too much of a true PG for me in the playoffs where that can become a bad thing. In the RS, being a true PG is a massive deal as this is a marathon. 

Summer League - Sprint

GLeague - Short and easier marathon

NBA regular season - Marathon, tough. 

Playoffs - Obstacle course 

 

SL is fast and action packed. You have to adjust extremely fast.

GLeague - Short and easier marathon, it's not easy and there are elements but it's less taxing on the body. 

NBA regular season - Very taxing on the body, you must be measured. It's not easy. 

Playoffs - A lot of change, people changing things in the middle and early, extremely hard, mental challenging, you must adapt and be the hunter, not the hunted. 

Edited November 2, 2021 by NBASupes

[AHF]

4 hours ago, NBASupes said:

 We already seen how Ben Simmons who was superior to Trae last year

 

5 hours ago, NBASupes said:

Which leads me into the next thought. Barnes has been having a Randlesque year so far in SAC. His projected per36 was 15.9 PPG, 6 and 2.9 RPG and APG with splits of 47/38/81. Instead his per36 is 22.5/10/2.6 with splits of 48/45/84. He's playing 37MPG averaging 23.3/10.3/2.7 a game. Barnes biggest shift was with shooting threes, he's averaging 7.3 attempts a game. His career mark is 3.4 per. We are seeing the evolution of Barnes as a 3 and D PF who's elite on offense with a 24 PER. DAMN! 

That is really interesting.  I have had Barnes in that category of overpaid guys who eat up your cap and hurt your chances at competing given their limited impact but he has been crazy this year.  Not only maintaining but improving his 3pt efficiency while upping the volume dramatically at the same time as increasing his rebounding by more than 50%...I'm very skeptical whether it is sustainable but I didn't think Randle could keep it up the way he has either.  At 29 this would be a pretty late blooming especially after averaging ~14 points and 6 rebounds per game as a 26 and 27 year old.  Interesting story to track for sure.

[NBASupes]

4 hours ago, AHF said:

 

That is really interesting.  I have had Barnes in that category of overpaid guys who eat up your cap and hurt your chances at competing given their limited impact but he has been crazy this year.  Not only maintaining but improving his 3pt efficiency while upping the volume dramatically at the same time as increasing his rebounding by more than 50%...I'm very skeptical whether it is sustainable but I didn't think Randle could keep it up the way he has either.  At 29 this would be a pretty late blooming especially after averaging ~14 points and 6 rebounds per game as a 26 and 27 year old.  Interesting story to track for sure.

Its makes me think that these elite work ethic guys can make a later career push when it seems like they are limited

 

[FL_BRYANT]

Hawks better bring  their A games all season because the East is no joke this year. Miami, NYK,Chicago, and to a lesser extent Charlotte , Philadelphia, and the Wizards have all improved. Not a lot of difference between the top them and the  Nets Bucks, and Hawks. An injury can really change things around.  Good depth like the HAWKS have maybe be the difference between making or not making the playoffs. Hopefully all the players will be professional and ready when called on.

[Peoriabird]

Trae and Lou have been horrible!  Did not understand the Lou resign then but now it looks even worse because the guy is finished!

[Sothron]

We need to sit Lou. Wright is a thousand times better on defense than Lou. There's no way Lou makes up for that on offense. 

[Spud2nique]

6 minutes ago, Sothron said:

We need to sit Lou. Wright is a thousand times better on defense than Lou. There's no way Lou makes up for that on offense. 

As much as I love lemon pepper Father Time seems to be sprinting after him now..downhill style.

I feel like Travis wanted to always have a vet backup Trae like Lin, Rondo and Lou. But we don’t really need a vet at backup point anymore. Don’t get me wrong I’d love a Derrick Rose type vet but a Lou vet that’s becoming kind of unproductive is holding us back a bit.

Reminiscent of VC couple years back. We needed VC more at that stage than we do Lou now. 
 

Possibly attach him to a trade at the deadline.

[JTB]

Once the offense starts clicking everything is going to be fine .that’s just facts but until then it’s going to be a bumpy road.

[benhillboy]

Doesn’t seem like Nate is paying attention to the lineups and on/ off.  He’s paying lip service to playing Trae fewer minutes in the media but I’ll believe it when I see it.  Every outlet projected Trae with a lesser impact than last season yet Nate increases his minutes by 1 after depth was added?!  Huh?

His on/ off illustrates a significant drag on team rebounding (up 7% when he’s off court) and assisting (up 9% when he’s off).  No surprise teams shoot 4% worse when he’s off.  I always knew team passing suffered when he’s on due to his abysmal off ball game (only 5% of his 2s are assisted) and assist-hunting style as opposed to ball movement facilitation but this shows how much his lack of boxing out hurts despite his decent raw counting numbers. 
 

Our all-BU lineup of Wright/ Cam/ Kevin/ Solo/ Dieng has been most efficient (20 minutes together, +22.5 points per 100 possessions).  The starting lineup has played quite well as well for 160 minutes (+5 points per 100).   It’s the lineup mixes that’s giving Nate (and his green staff) problems.
 

One needs to look no further than the 4 man group of Cam, Kevin, Gallo, and John.  They’ve played 7 minutes with Wright, +69 per 100.  With Trae?  8 minutes, -39 per 100.  
 

Capping Trae at 30 minutes always seemed obvious to me for so many reasons.  You get the max benefit of his workload while minimizing the team-hurting aspects of his defense, off ball, and stat hunting.  Now that he’s strrrruuuuggggliiinnggg from 3 I don’t know what else coach needs to see. Tighten up Nate.  Anyone who follows advanced stats (the film is obvious to me but hey) knows John provides the best impact on this team by a pretty comfortable margin. Nate doesn’t have to be beholden to the media and Young’s upcoming contract.

Edited November 6, 2021 by benhillboy

[Spud2nique]

26 minutes ago, JTB said:

Once the offense starts clicking everything is going to be fine .that’s just facts but until then it’s going to be a bumpy road.

Yup same as last year. Get the misses out of the way now.

[bleachkit]

What if the unthinkable happens. We are back counting lottery balls in 2022. 

[ATLHawks3]

38 minutes ago, bleachkit said:

What if the unthinkable happens. We are back counting lottery balls in 2022. 

I don't think it'll happen, as I eventually think guys will settle into their role, and buy in. But if it does, heads will roll.

[terrell]

49 minutes ago, bleachkit said:

What if the unthinkable happens. We are back counting lottery balls in 2022. 

As of right now, we're picking 9th..........

[NBASupes]

9 hours ago, bleachkit said:

What if the unthinkable happens. We are back counting lottery balls in 2022. 

We are too talented. Nate will get it together at some point.

[Final_quest]

16 hours ago, bleachkit said:

What if the unthinkable happens. We are back counting lottery balls in 2022. 

I don’t think this happens either, but if it does we are still in a good position as a franchise.  Why?

We have a big core with lots of salary mixed with young players.  You have a lot of assets to consolidate to bring in some real talent.  Even if we play better and get into the playoffs as a 3-6 seed that is still the move to make.  

[benhillboy]

13 hours ago, NBASupes said:

We are too talented. Nate will get it together at some point.

“Some point” needs to be yesterday.  I’m not trying to be on par with the Pacers 

https://twitter.com/NBA_Math/status/1457358754668707847?s=20

Edited November 7, 2021 by benhillboy

[benhillboy]

@NBASupes look like your boy Al having a renaissance year.  Hoping Ja will become a decent defender looks like a stretch lol.

 

And yet another example of Nate’s poor rotations and minute decisions.  Let that kid rock:

Edited November 7, 2021 by benhillboy