The cobbled together, stuff we held on to during the playoffs mega super rumor and team direction thread.

[Spud2nique]

12 minutes ago, marco102 said:

No one goes out 100% of the time. 

True but Gobert goes 88% on D while Ayton maybe 65%…
 

That 23% (for the sake of argument) goes a long way in wins and losses.

[marco102]

5 minutes ago, Spud2nique said:

True but Gobert goes 88% on D while Ayton maybe 65%…
 

That 23% (for the sake of argument) goes a long way in wins and losses.

That sir is an exaggeration. I watched a lot of PHX basketball this year and he takes plays off about 15% of the time.  Gobert could be around 90%, but I didn't watch the Jazz as much.

[terrell]

1 hour ago, JeffS17 said:

smh so many haters in here, are there any other Trae-Gobert truthers out there except me and @NBASupes??????

Our problems on offense are like 85% coaching related imo to answer peoples questions around that.  We spam PnR and if it's not there we go Trae iso.  It's not a winning formula and I don't care who the personnel are.  Nets have two of the best scorers in the entire league and got swept in the first round.  We need elite defensive players to surround with Trae.

We were a top 2 offense and a bottom 5 defense.  We have the talent for offense -- we just need good coaching for the playoffs which is what everyone here is citing as our offensive problems.  Putting all our money into more scoring is not going to change the fact this team cannot defend.  You know how else we win more games in Miami?  By stopping them from getting easy buckets.  Trae and Gobert is such a natural fit on both ends of the court I don't know how everyone doesn't see it.  Gobert IS much much much better on defense than Capela.  The guy is a 3x DPOY and a frontrunner basically every single year and you guys are acting like Capela is a stopper -- he's not.  Capela sits back in drop and collects easy boards and gets blocks by being a help defender.  Rudy can do it all alone.  Rudy allows your defense to be more aggressive on the perimeter, (our opponent 3P% was high this year compared to league average), he allows guys to gamble more, and he is also a WAY better floor general than Capela, which we SEVERELY NEED.  He's also a better offensive player than Capela even if he has gaps in his game.  

We have the talent on offense already to score points, and I really feel like everyone here is conflating coaching issues with offensive personnel issues.  Would another ball handler be nice?  Yes absolutely, but it's far from our biggest need imo which is plus defenders, and there is no one in the past decade that fits that role better than Gobert.

Look at our team defenders in the graphic below -- Capela, AS A CENTER, is not even the largest plus defender:

Now look at the Jazz for comparison, absolutely night and day difference the impact Gobert has on defense, and I'm tired of people acting like he's not a big upgrade on that end.  He's a MASSIVE upgrade on that end and worth the money.  You can also watch Jazz games and see his instincts are elite and much better than Capelas, his footwork is better, his presence is felt more, and the stats all back this up.  He's the the most impactful defender in the league in recent memory.

And people who want Mitchell more than Gobert, pleasel ook at this graph -- two of the worst defenders in the NBA as a back court is a joke

Lavine and Gobert it is then.. lol

[RandomFan]

[JayBirdHawk]

5 hours ago, Wretch said:

I wouldn't.  Gobert is not trash.  He's a fantastic player.  But there is absolutely not a ~$20m difference between him and Capela.   How do people see THAT big of a difference watching these two?

This has been my stance from the jump and remains so today.

[JayBirdHawk]

3 hours ago, MarylandHawk said:

With the mid level exception can the Hawks spend up to $159M?

What the Hawks will do is trade and/or resign players up to the Luxury Tax of $149, then use the$10 mil MLE to get to $159.  If trades and/or signings force us over the LT, then we have only the Tax payer MLE of $6.1 million.

[Final_quest]

Gobert completely dominates on defense.  Can take virtually any squad and make them top 10 in defense.  Capela was the worst finisher at the rim last year.  No one else in the league can do what Gobert does. Ya’ll are getting too caught up in the dollars.  
 

You can play this dollars game all the way down to vet min players.  Is Capela worth $15M more than Bobby Portis?  Next thing you know we’re back to Dion James as our starter.  

Not much difference between Trae and Immanuel Quickley, right?  Quickley is cheaper and almost as good.  Let’s field a whole team of guys who are $20M cheaper than the real thing.  

[JayBirdHawk]

1 hour ago, JeffS17 said:

my gut tells me not to go all-in on a center that isn't much of a plus defender. 

Like my gut is telling me not to go all-in on a one-way defensive center that so far has not had any the impact in the playoffs as one would expect.

[Diesel]

Instead of spending 40 Million on Gobert,   Let's make Whitesides a MLE offer!

 

[JayBirdHawk]

18 minutes ago, Diesel said:

Instead of spending 40 Million on Gobert,   Let's make Whitesides a MLE offer!

 

[gurpilo]

Ayton fits Trae timeline, he is a true star and can still improve a lot, he is cheaper than Gobert, he will also have bigger trade value if he does not fit. If we add Ayton we have 2 stars with similar age for years to come, we can build around them.

Gobert is 29, in 2-3 years he will start declining, if not sooner, he is more expensive and does nota fit Trae timeline.

Younger, cheaper, more upside, bigger Trae value, less trade cost... 

For me the choice is easy, too easy. If we can trade Ayton for Capela, Bogi and a pick, let's do It. No need to trade Hunter for a C with 2-3 good years left.

 

 

[JayBirdHawk]

On 5/23/2022 at 10:39 AM, JayBirdHawk said:

2 guys coming off knee surgeries in Lavine and Sexton and the other played 36 games this past season in Brogdon. Then we have our own walking injury concern in Hunter.

I'm not OK with this!!!....and I don't think we've adequately addressed our wing defense.

Speaking of @kg01 boy Sexton:

Cavaliers want to retain Collin Sexton

Michael Scotto: The Cavaliers want to retain Collin Sexton. He’s going to demand starting guard money, I’m told. There are some teams who will be in the market for a point guard this summer, including the New York Knicks and Washington Wizards, who would have to acquire Sexton in a sign-and-trade if they want to get him. Last season, no restricted free agent signed an offer sheet, and players such as Cavaliers forward Lauri Markkanen switched teams via sign-and-trade.

Michael Scotto: One executive told me, “I think Cleveland will extend a qualifying offer to Sexton and look to match an offer. I don’t see him receiving an offer, but I think Cleveland will use Sexton as a trade asset. I expect them to try and sign him to a deal in the $18-20 million annual range so they can eventually trade him.”

 

Chris Fedor: My sources tell me at the end of the Sexton negotiations, the two sides were kicking around Bogdan Bogdanovic money, so around $18 million annually. I get the sense that the Cavs are more comfortable in the range of $15-18 million (annually). I think Collin is looking more in the range of $18-22 million (annually). I do think there’s a gap they need to close this offseason.

 

– via Michael Scotto @ HoopsHype

[JayBirdHawk]

2 hours ago, marco102 said:

Just if between Ayton and Gobert.

Sorry, I couldn't resist. 

[Peoriabird]

1 hour ago, JayBirdHawk said:

Like my gut is telling me not to go all-in on a one-way defensive center that so far has not had any the impact in the playoffs as one would expect.

Why are we even talking about the center position? It's one of our positional strengths.

[Wretch]

3 hours ago, JeffS17 said:

smh so many haters in here, are there any other Trae-Gobert truthers out there except me and @NBASupes??????

Our problems on offense are like 85% coaching related imo to answer peoples questions around that.  We spam PnR and if it's not there we go Trae iso.  It's not a winning formula and I don't care who the personnel are.  Nets have two of the best scorers in the entire league and got swept in the first round.  We need elite defensive players to surround with Trae.

We were a top 2 offense and a bottom 5 defense.  We have the talent for offense -- we just need good coaching for the playoffs which is what everyone here is citing as our offensive problems.  Putting all our money into more scoring is not going to change the fact this team cannot defend.  You know how else we win more games in Miami?  By stopping them from getting easy buckets.  Trae and Gobert is such a natural fit on both ends of the court I don't know how everyone doesn't see it.  Gobert IS much much much better on defense than Capela.  The guy is a 3x DPOY and a frontrunner basically every single year and you guys are acting like Capela is a stopper -- he's not.  Capela sits back in drop and collects easy boards and gets blocks by being a help defender.  Rudy can do it all alone.  Rudy allows your defense to be more aggressive on the perimeter, (our opponent 3P% was high this year compared to league average), he allows guys to gamble more, and he is also a WAY better floor general than Capela, which we SEVERELY NEED.  He's also a better offensive player than Capela even if he has gaps in his game.  

We have the talent on offense already to score points, and I really feel like everyone here is conflating coaching issues with offensive personnel issues.  Would another ball handler be nice?  Yes absolutely, but it's far from our biggest need imo which is plus defenders, and there is no one in the past decade that fits that role better than Gobert.

Look at our team defenders in the graphic below -- Capela, AS A CENTER, is not even the largest plus defender:

Now look at the Jazz for comparison, absolutely night and day difference the impact Gobert has on defense, and I'm tired of people acting like he's not a big upgrade on that end.  He's a MASSIVE upgrade on that end and worth the money.  You can also watch Jazz games and see his instincts are elite and much better than Capelas, his footwork is better, his presence is felt more, and the stats all back this up.  He's the the most impactful defender in the league in recent memory.

And people who want Mitchell more than Gobert, pleasel ook at this graph -- two of the worst defenders in the NBA as a back court is a joke

Hate (and consequently hater) is a strong word.  I'm not a hater.  I have probably said this 1000 times, and it'll have to be 1001, but my favorite types of players ARE guys who defend and rebound.  Players like Ben Wallace, Mutombo (my all-time fav center), Charles Oakley, Rodman...  These players speak to my heart.  Rudy Gobert is my kind of player.  Clint Capela is my kind of player.  I say all this to establish the fact that I do not discount anything that Gobert brings to the table.  I understand it well.

A few things though...

I put no faith into advanced defensive metrics as it pertains to individual players.  There are 10 guys on the court that are affecting how defenses are executed and ultimately the efficacy of that defense itself.  It's not to say that you can't have a decent conversation about individual defensive metrics, but for me it's much less important than team defense (and chemistry).  I get it that we're tracking the effect that a player has over streams and streams of data/events and we can maybe even produce some decent individually quantifiable predictors.  There's too many factors that have a qualitative effect on these numbers that isn't taken into account.  To put it in the words of that authors of RAPTOR:

Quote

Plus-minus statistics have certain inherent limitations, and RAPTOR is subject to those, too. Namely, these statistics assume that player performance is largely linear and additive, that is, that you can roughly add up the ratings from individual players to project team performance. In other words, RAPTOR does not account for coaching, systems or synergies between teammates.

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/introducing-raptor-our-new-metric-for-the-modern-nba/

It doesn't make the numbers useless (far from it).  However these advanced numbers do not turn humans into mechanical upgradeable parts whereby you can say for certain that swapping X⁷ player for X^-2 will yield X⁹.  These types of numbers will tell you that Gobert is a good defender, no doubt.  They do not tell you that Gobert and Trae will work well together or any better than Trae and Capela.  The only way to get a good read on that is to 1-1 swap these guys and observe the results.

Again, not dismissing the value of these statistics, I'm simply saying that I a) they're not a holy measuring stick for individual performance and b) team defense and chemistry are things that I put much more faith in and have more respect for metrics of.

Second note, Trae is a lightning quick PG with great range, a good floater, has the ability to finish in traffic, and has outstanding court vision.  So obviously the best way to utilize him is put him in a corner and spot him up.

...

Of course not.  The guy excels in the pick and roll and we have the game samples to back that up.  We literally rode that offense to the Eastern Conference Finals.  Please understand that I am NOT advocating for a 1-dimensional offense.  I'm only speaking to what this player does well.  LeBron is great at penetrating and passing.  You run that and put shooters around him.  Giannis is nearly impossible to stop once he gets a foot in the lane, but he can't shoot.  Put shooters around him.  Curry and Klay are snipers at the 1/2.  Move these guys without the ball and get a guy who can facilitate the offense at the 3, 4, or 5 (Dray/Curry and Wiggins/Curry have been at the top of the league in assist duos the past 2 seasons). 

This isn't really complicated stuff.  I'm only pointing it out because we're using Trae to his strengths.  It would be great if we had a different offense, but who exactly is going to set Trae up for offense?  That one stretch against Miami where we couldn't handle a simple press without Trae should be enough to tell people.  It was a ~10 point swing in less than like 30 seconds...all because we couldn't inbound the ball and bring it up the court.  It's not enough to simply upgrade our offensive sets (which I do agree with), we have to add another scorer.  Otherwise, teams will continue to lock us up.  The NBA is not going to do us any favors by calling legit fouls in the playoffs.  We have to make shots.

It is true that we are a top team in terms of overall offensive efficiency, but we are decidedly pedestrian, borderline one of the worst scoring teams, in the 4th quarter.  This is when teams turn on the gas and focus-fire Trae.  We have a great offensive player in him and a bunch of guys who are very average at best.  In the clutch it's simply too easy to throw a box and 1 at him and wait for his teammates to miss.  Switching up the offense will help as will finding more reliable scorers.  However, if we want to beat the elite teams, teams who have great offense and defense, we will need to alleviate the pressure from Trae with a legitimate 2nd option.  Gobert is not that.

[JTB]

3 hours ago, JeffS17 said:

smh so many haters in here, are there any other Trae-Gobert truthers out there except me and @NBASupes??????

Our problems on offense are like 85% coaching related imo to answer peoples questions around that.  We spam PnR and if it's not there we go Trae iso.  It's not a winning formula and I don't care who the personnel are.  Nets have two of the best scorers in the entire league and got swept in the first round.  We need elite defensive players to surround with Trae.

We were a top 2 offense and a bottom 5 defense.  We have the talent for offense -- we just need good coaching for the playoffs which is what everyone here is citing as our offensive problems.  Putting all our money into more scoring is not going to change the fact this team cannot defend.  You know how else we win more games in Miami?  By stopping them from getting easy buckets.  Trae and Gobert is such a natural fit on both ends of the court I don't know how everyone doesn't see it.  Gobert IS much much much better on defense than Capela.  The guy is a 3x DPOY and a frontrunner basically every single year and you guys are acting like Capela is a stopper -- he's not.  Capela sits back in drop and collects easy boards and gets blocks by being a help defender.  Rudy can do it all alone.  Rudy allows your defense to be more aggressive on the perimeter, (our opponent 3P% was high this year compared to league average), he allows guys to gamble more, and he is also a WAY better floor general than Capela, which we SEVERELY NEED.  He's also a better offensive player than Capela even if he has gaps in his game.  

We have the talent on offense already to score points, and I really feel like everyone here is conflating coaching issues with offensive personnel issues.  Would another ball handler be nice?  Yes absolutely, but it's far from our biggest need imo which is plus defenders, and there is no one in the past decade that fits that role better than Gobert.

Look at our team defenders in the graphic below -- Capela, AS A CENTER, is not even the largest plus defender:

Now look at the Jazz for comparison, absolutely night and day difference the impact Gobert has on defense, and I'm tired of people acting like he's not a big upgrade on that end.  He's a MASSIVE upgrade on that end and worth the money.  You can also watch Jazz games and see his instincts are elite and much better than Capelas, his footwork is better, his presence is felt more, and the stats all back this up.  He's the the most impactful defender in the league in recent memory.

And people who want Mitchell more than Gobert, pleasel ook at this graph -- two of the worst defenders in the NBA as a back court is a joke

I agree with all of this but what I don’t want to do is bring Gobert over to the same situation he’s in at Utah! That would just be idiotic in my opinion so any trade that includes Hunter to the Jazz for Gobert I am completely against! AND I actually do think Gobert is a way better defender than Cap and I’m not worried about the money but yeah surround Trae with defense should be the plan however you also need to surround Gobert with better perimeter defenders for playoff reasoning.

2 hours ago, JeffS17 said:

Also, not trying to discount anyone's opinion, obviously just as valid as mine as we're all fans and watch the games, but I can't answer the question of what roster changes we need to fix our offense when I believe the root issue is Nate has no idea how to coach an NBA offense and maximize his personnel's potential on the court

Can’t disagree here but my thoughts are this…. Even though the opponents may know our offense is PnR it’s not easy to stop if both ends are dominating players (Stockton Malone)….Ayton is an elite talent waiting to be unleashed! He’s the perfect mesh with Trae offensively. Traes bread and butter is the pick play whether it’s roll or pop no matter what coach walk through that door that’s an priority offensive focus no matter what. TO ME Ayton should be our primary target as he resolves the need for a 2nd go to scorer who happens to fit Trae like a Glove!… and his defense is actually good not great like Gobert but Ayton is a two way player.

2 hours ago, marco102 said:

He's a really good defender now.  He's improved every year he's been in the league on defense. 

Start at 4:30

Again, Gobert is probably the better player right now, but long term and to expand the Hawks window, I believe Ayton is the way to go. 

But Ayton isn't a bad defender...lol  I can't stress that enough. 

Thanks. Ayton should be heavily prioritized!….it would be a dream to pair Ayton and Trae!

[Wretch]

5 minutes ago, JTB said:

Even though the opponents may know our offense is PnR it’s not easy to stop if both ends are dominating players (Stockton Malone)….Ayton is an elite talent waiting to be unleashed! He’s the perfect mesh with Trae offensively. Traes bread and butter is the pick play whether it’s roll or pop no matter what coach walk through that door that’s an priority offensive focus no matter what. TO ME Ayton should be our primary target as he resolves the need for a 2nd go to scorer who happens to fit Trae like a Glove!… and his defense is actually good not great like Gobert but Ayton is a two way player.

Thanks. Ayton should be heavily prioritized!….it would be a dream to pair Ayton and Trae!

The part in bold ++

*edit, I also have to add the player that people forget about on those Utah teams - Jeff Hornacek.  If you could manage to slow down the PnR, Jeff would be right there waiting to throw a dagger from the perimeter.

[Spud2nique]

2 hours ago, marco102 said:

That sir is an exaggeration. I watched a lot of PHX basketball this year and he takes plays off about 15% of the time.  Gobert could be around 90%, but I didn't watch the Jazz as much.

So you’re saying Ayton play hard 85% of the time and Gobert 90%? 
 

Only 5% diff? Nah, you say 5.. I say 23%, split the difference and we prolly closer to the truth. 

Gobert 90%
 

Ayton 76%
 

? 

14% = 7 more wins. You just divide the percentage into 2… 
 

(I’m quickly heading downhill into what’s called Supes math …  HELP!!! HELP MEEEE!!!!!)

 

Gobert gives up 54 wins, Ayton 47.

Don’t try and figure out just enjoy it.

[Spud2nique]

2 hours ago, Spud2nique said:

Y’all got me crazy back n forth on this thing. Ayton has the ceiling and the limitless intrigue as far as potential…

Having said that.. that P word potential.. I get scared of it.

Gobert is a 3 time DPOY player. As well as a 3 time all NBA 3rd team. 
 

For those saying Capela is comparable to Gobert, I don’t buy that. Rebounding could be similar in stats, still Gobert being higher but the defensive impact is 5X more imo.. ok twice more.

I’m usually never on the fence about something. I pick one or the other.

Im stumped.. both present good arguments @marco102 teamed up with Soth bullying folks down low with Ayton and @JeffS17 swiping balls  And swattin shots with @NBASupes and Gobert.

Sideline participants: @kg01 @JayBirdHawk @Spud2nique 

Add @Wretch and @JTB to team Ayton. This would be easier in a poll.

[marco102]

7 minutes ago, Spud2nique said:

So you’re saying Ayton play hard 85% of the time and Gobert 90%? 
 

Only 5% diff? Nah, you say 5.. I say 23%, split the difference and we prolly closer to the truth. 

Gobert 90%
 

Ayton 76%
 

? 

14% = 7 more wins. You just divide the percentage into 2… 
 

(I’m quickly heading downhill into what’s called Supes math …  HELP!!! HELP MEEEE!!!!!)

 

Gobert gives up 54 wins, Ayton 47.

Don’t try and figure out just enjoy it.

You sir are a savage.