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2023-24 Insider Information Thread


AHF

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2 hours ago, KB21 said:

Trading Bogi and OO are both stupid moves unless you are getting a great return.  

Bogi yes, OO, goodbye. 

Bogi is the last player I would trade at this time outside of the rookies and Trae.

Edited by NBASupes
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I’ve said this before, but I really think they went all in for Siakam.  Any meaningful player they could have signed was gone by the time he was off the market.  

If they made a trade using a TPE at that point it would be a bad contract for a phantom second round pick.  

In short there were no good options after missing on Siakam and they didn’t want to give up future cap or draft assets for the trash available.   

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29 minutes ago, bird_dirt said:

Shhhhhiiiiiii. 
Hawks probably should be looking to renegotiate an improved deal to keep Quin from bouncing to LA, with Trae following him. 

Quin isn't bouncing to LA to deal with LeBron and his side show.

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2 hours ago, AHF said:

Man, I love hearing that OKC is *****ed beyond belief over the next 5 years.  Unable to improve.  Incapable of keeping their own players on reasonable contracts.  I feel sorry for those a*****les don't you guys?  Having a bunch of rising talent on rookie contracts is a real curse for a franchise.  The only thing you can do is keep them, then overpay them, then salary dump them, and watch your roster deteriorate.  No possibility that you could sign them to market competitive contracts.  No chance you could trade them for better fitting pieces.  No chance for any of that.  Get used to it, OKC.  You guys are FUBAR'd and your front office has no options.

(Also, I'm confused why people are raising the fact that fans might be attached to players such that they would resist trades that could be good for the team.  Do front offices check with fan websites before making moves?  Does fan opinion constrain front offices?  Not sure how the views of fans are at all relevant to a discussion around whether the front office could have done things differently after it has become clear that the front office put the team on a path to deteriorating results.)

#1. OKC could follow our same path if they pay a majority of their guys on rookie contracts.  Plus Chet Holmgren gets injured.  Then they have to start giving guys away or face cap hell in short order.  
They are in a great position now, but could waste it like we did.  But a difference is they also have 2x the draft capital.  
#2. The fan attachment is irrelevant, although it’s annoying that guys who proclaimed players as future stars are now telling you ownership messed up by paying them.  But I really think ownership and GMs mirrored the same attachment the fans did.  

I get it, the ECF run was awesome.  Where is the humility to admit being wrong about JC, Hunter, Cam?  Instead it’s bold claims like I would have negotiated better deals and traded them at the perfect time to maximize returns. Huh? Sure. 

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37 minutes ago, AHF said:

I thought more of JC than I should have although I did say we screwed the pooch with him by treating him like an UFA when he was a RFA.  I was also higher on Cam’s upside than I should have been. Saw him as potentially being an ideal wing next to Trae and he simply has not matured as a player and made the improvements I would have wanted to see.  Hunter I saw as lower ceiling so I’m not real disappointed with his development although staying healthy would be nice.  I did think we overpaid him at the time so no regrets on that view.  I’ll cop to being more wrong than right on those three on the whole.  But I am not being paid millions to make personnel calls by the Hawks and I expect more from our GM than I would deliver.  I was very unexcited by the Kobe pick and would have taken Cam so that is a perfect example of a pick where I’d love to be wrong and see him become a plus defender and key part of the rotation.  I’m not going to hold my tongue from criticizing management when they make moves that turn out to be wrong regardless of my own view because I know the team would be in trouble if they were relying on me for talent evaluation and our GM and scouts should be much better.

I was very wrong about Justin Holliday, but he had a minor role.  It’s just that I thought he would perform really well.  
Bey vs Hunter I completely misjudged.  Thought Bey could show he was actually better, but that was a total flop of a prediction.
I think the Trae and Dejounte pairing is my biggest miss.  Thought they could be a Harden and CP3 type of fit.  I did say I would give the FO credit and support the move even if it went south.  They tried and actually got us a top player in his prime.  That in itself is an accomplishment.  My big hope is we can still flip him to make the trade worth it.  

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3 hours ago, AHF said:

Hey, if you are content with guys who contribute only a little bit more to the team than you and I did then good on you.  You are never going to be disappointed with a 0.0 WS season like Patty Mills delivered if your expectations are that low.  We had the space to sign any free agent who signed a minimum contract for double that amount so I don't really care who wanted to come here as most guys will take the money over how much they happen to love the night life in one city versus another and I'm more focused on how badly we utilized the levers we could pull to give the team meaningful depth in light of the big 5 red flags of injury risk coming into the season:  Bogi, AJ, JJ, OO and Hunter.  Seems like other teams can do much better than what we did.  I'd like to see that from my team more along the lines of the valuable relatively low dollar moves that Danny Ferry made.  (Example:  DMC 2 years, $5M.  Feel free to adjust that to $8M or something.)

I read your whole response and still couldn't find an answer to this question:

4 hours ago, JeffS17 said:

Which bench players could we have signed? Who wanted to play here on our bench and why didn't it work out?

 

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10 hours ago, JeffS17 said:

I read your whole response and still couldn't find an answer to this question:

 

The answer is any low dollar free agent we wanted because you are asking the wrong question when you ask who wanted to play here when they would likely accept more money.  I will grant that since we can’t read minds or look at alternate realities that we can be certain someone who took a $4M/year deal would take an $8M expiring deal in Atlanta but I feel it is unreasonable to believe they couldn’t.  And at the end of the year we suffered by not having a player at the level of Vit on the roster.  I don’t recall us even making an offer to anyone that was reported to be rejected.

Did we offer Ayo Dosunmu a $10M 1 year offer sheet?  How about Trey Lyles we sure as **** needed a second power forward?  Did we offer Miles Bridges more than the qualifying offer he signed?  I’ve sure seen no signs we did these or a dozen more moves that would have left us with a better bench than we had this year.

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17 hours ago, KB21 said:

LA fired Darvin Ham.  Quin should bring him back to Atlanta as an assistant.

If the Hawks start out 7 - 13 next season, Quin might be joining Ham on the NBA unemployment line.

Then Trae will get blamed for that too, having the "coach killer" tag placed on his neck.

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15 hours ago, AHF said:

We had the space to sign any free agent who signed a minimum contract for double that amount so I don't really care who wanted to come here as most guys will take the money over how much they happen to love the night life in one city versus another and I'm more focused on how badly we utilized the levers we could pull to give the team meaningful depth in light of the big 5 red flags of injury risk coming into the season:  Bogi, AJ, JJ, OO and Hunter.

This is an excellent point, and one of the biggest run-on sentences in Hawksquawk history.  But it almost needed to be typed like this so that you wouldn't lose your train of thought.

The big 5 red flags of injury .... man.

How many games did those guys lose this year collectively, due to injury?

15 hours ago, AHF said:

We had the space to sign any free agent who signed a minimum contract for double that amount so I don't really care who wanted to come here as most guys will take the money over how much they happen to love the night life in one city versus another and I'm more focused on how badly we utilized the levers we could pull to give the team meaningful depth in light of the big 5 red flags of injury risk coming into the season:  Bogi, AJ, JJ, OO and Hunter.

This is an excellent point, and one of the biggest run-on sentences in Hawksquawk history.  But it almost needed to be typed like this so that you wouldn't lose your train of thought.

The big 5 red flags of injury .... man.

How many games did those guys lose this year collectively, due to injury?

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32 minutes ago, TheNorthCydeRises said:

If the Hawks start out 7 - 13 next season, Quin might be joining Ham on the NBA unemployment line.

Then Trae will get blamed for that too, having the "coach killer" tag placed on his neck.

It would be a Ressler move to fire an elite coach like Quin.  He did force out an elite coach in Budenholzer after all.  

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I enjoy reading this thread- but I honestly don’t think hawks will change anything.    Gonna run back the same roster and rely on health- which will be dumb!!

 

We should not run it back, but our front office is just clueless.    I’d be happy trading Hunter for Kermit the Frog.  

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1 hour ago, georgia said:

I enjoy reading this thread- but I honestly don’t think hawks will change anything.    Gonna run back the same roster and rely on health- which will be dumb!!

I wish I could disagree...I expected roster upgrades/changes last season too, but here we are, AGAIN.

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1 hour ago, georgia said:

I enjoy reading this thread- but I honestly don’t think hawks will change anything.    Gonna run back the same roster and rely on health- which will be dumb!!

 

We should not run it back, but our front office is just clueless.    I’d be happy trading Hunter for Kermit the Frog.  

That would help with ticket sales for sure. 

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3 hours ago, AHF said:

The answer is any low dollar free agent we wanted because you are asking the wrong question when you ask who wanted to play here when they would likely accept more money.  I will grant that since we can’t read minds or look at alternate realities that we can be certain someone who took a $4M/year deal would take an $8M expiring deal in Atlanta but I feel it is unreasonable to believe they couldn’t.  And at the end of the year we suffered by not having a player at the level of Vit on the roster.  I don’t recall us even making an offer to anyone that was reported to be rejected.

Did we offer Ayo Dosunmu a $10M 1 year offer sheet?  How about Trey Lyles we sure as **** needed a second power forward?  Did we offer Miles Bridges more than the qualifying offer he signed?  I’ve sure seen no signs we did these or a dozen more moves that would have left us with a better bench than we had this year.

They have been willing to spend up to at least the luxury line multiple years in a row.  Ressler's spending is huge trigger for the fan base, so I get the reaction to spending below the luxury line as him simply being cheap. 

But I think they were being more strategic last year.  I'm guessing almost all of our options like Dosunmo, Thybulle, Niang, Gabe Vincent, were gone by the time we gave up on Siakam.  No one of quality would have been available for even a one year deal.  They had a plan B that was essentially to stay flexible for a Siakam type of play that actually makes a long term impact. 

Additionally if they sign ANYONE else to a long term deal when you already had $160M in committed salary for 2024-2025, you tank your future flexibility.  $160M committed is hard enough to work with, and the idea that you sign guys like Niang or Lyles to long term deals while you pursue Siakam makes zero sense anyways. 

The audible or hail mary would have been trading our only first round picks for someone to make an impact after losing on Siakam, and that means giving up part of our limited future draft capital and eliminating future cap flexibility.  Probably no one available worth making a move like that.  Again no good options after losing on Siakam.  They got the wrong vet min guy, Wes Mathews, as well.  

 

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1 hour ago, Final_quest said:

They have been willing to spend up to at least the luxury line multiple years in a row.  Ressler's spending is huge trigger for the fan base, so I get the reaction to spending below the luxury line as him simply being cheap. 

But I think they were being more strategic last year.  I'm guessing almost all of our options like Dosunmo, Thybulle, Niang, Gabe Vincent, were gone by the time we gave up on Siakam.  No one of quality would have been available for even a one year deal.  They had a plan B that was essentially to stay flexible for a Siakam type of play that actually makes a long term impact. 

Additionally if they sign ANYONE else to a long term deal when you already had $160M in committed salary for 2024-2025, you tank your future flexibility.  $160M committed is hard enough to work with, and the idea that you sign guys like Niang or Lyles to long term deals while you pursue Siakam makes zero sense anyways. 

The audible or hail mary would have been trading our only first round picks for someone to make an impact after losing on Siakam, and that means giving up part of our limited future draft capital and eliminating future cap flexibility.  Probably no one available worth making a move like that.  Again no good options after losing on Siakam.  They got the wrong vet min guy, Wes Mathews, as well.  

 

Timeline:

June 26th - traded John Collins for TPE

July 1st - new league year starts, FAcy opens

July 6th - agreed to DJ extension 

(Reminder there was lots of rumors of including DJ in a Pascal trade prior to him resigning, but once he resigned he couldn't be traded for 6 months)

Pascal talks were ongoing all thru Sunmer League and into August when the final report came out the Hawks were prepared to go into the season as is.

So are you saying the Hawks had a singular focus on Pascal from the start of the new league year without regards for the rest of the roster? Because even if you made the Pascal trade....what else was the plan for the rest of the roster? We'd be trading close to similar salaries in any Pascal trade so it should not have precluded them from making additional signings/trades to balance and improve the rest of the roster.

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3 hours ago, KB21 said:

It would be a Ressler move to fire an elite coach like Quin.  He did force out an elite coach in Budenholzer after all.  

Budcox the GM “forced out” Bud the coach.  Budcox forced us into a rebuild by leaving us with an underperforming roster that was lucky to make the playoffs (expected losing record) and had no path to add significant talent and a guaranteed massive increase in payroll coming (with Sap and others about to get overpaid).  Bud didn’t want to rebuild which is why he left at the end of the day.  Budcox put the team in a position where rebuilding was the obvious next step as a result of not managing the roster as it spiraled into submediocrity.

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34 minutes ago, JayBirdHawk said:

Timeline:

June 26th - traded John Collins for TPE

July 1st - new league year starts, FAcy opens

July 6th - agreed to DJ extension 

(Reminder there was lots of rumors of including DJ in a Pascal trade prior to him resigning, but once he resigned he couldn't be traded for 6 months)

Pascal talks were ongoing all thru Sunmer League and into August when the final report came out the Hawks were prepared to go into the season as is.

So are you saying the Hawks had a singular focus on Pascal from the start of the new league year without regards for the rest of the roster? Because even you made the Pascal trade....what else was the plan for the rest of the roster? We'd be trading close to similar salaries in any Pascal trade so it should not have precluded them from making additional signings/trades to balance and improve the rest of the roster.

Yes, it was Siakam or nothing.  Maybe make a small move after landing Siakam.

You guys are only looking at this year’s cap as having extra room.  With Siakam you would have a huge raise for him plus Murray and Okongwu raises for 2024-2025.  If you added another multi-year deal on top of that it would put us as a top five spending team for 2024-2025.  

No one sees the wisdom in managing a long term cap so you don’t cut guys like Collins or become like Phoenix.  

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46 minutes ago, AHF said:

Budcox the GM “forced out” Bud the coach.  Budcox forced us into a rebuild by leaving us with an underperforming roster that was lucky to make the playoffs (expected losing record) and had no path to add significant talent and a guaranteed massive increase in payroll coming (with Sap and others about to get overpaid).  Bud didn’t want to rebuild which is why he left at the end of the day.  Budcox put the team in a position where rebuilding was the obvious next step as a result of not managing the roster as it spiraled into submediocrity.

Thanks.  Not sure why we have to keep re-explaining this.

Absolving Budenshoulders is like watching a guy set a building on fire, then blaming the fire for why he had to leave.  Like, uh there's a reason there was a fire. 

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My thoughts on how we got here and what went wrong...

Sacred Cows
This is another good time to repeat myself.  "Potential" has an expiration date.  You can't hold onto guys until they lose their potential value.  If we "get a good look" at them, then the whole world also gets a good look.  Same thing we did in the WLOC era. I have my favorites like everyone else, but at the end of the day...it's all negotiable.

2020 draft
I was hoping we'd move up or out of this draft.  I didn't like Ant Man's attitude, still don't.  However, if the opportunity was there to move up (which there were a lot of rumors about their interest in dealing the pick), I would have made the deal to move up and select LaMelo Ball in a heartbeat.  He was the player that I really wanted and was hoping we'd make that move.

Leaving the tank too soon (edit)
I don't know how this got deleted, but this is another big one and is self explanatory.  I was worried about appeasing Trae to build a "competitive" team...concerned that we might get stuck on a treadmill. The priority should have been asset acquisition.

Running it back
This is the one I'll go down with.  I thought bringing back the core was a no-brainer.  I thought we were really close.  I'll own that I was in alignment with that.  What I didn't anticipate was how well and how quickly the league adapted to Trae.  I mean, they straight up figured him out. Which is the next misstep...and probably the biggest to date.

Failure to adapt
It was really clear, and still very much is, that teams are not just going to allow Trae to PNR/dribble penetrate them to death.  Timely and efficient shooting/spacing/movement/stretching the floor was and will always be the key to unlocking what he does.  We took a step back giving Nate the team and took our time figuring that out.  I mean, we literally walked into that trap night in and night out.

We have taken WAY too long in constructing the supporting cast and system that a player like Trae needs - despite having laid it out for the front office year after year.

Murray
I will partially own alignment with this. He checked all the boxes except for one - 3pt shooting.  I was excited at the possibility of Trae and Murray playing off each other, but at the same time, I firmly believed the priority should have been getting a sniper opposite Trae at the 2 or 3 (or a big that would allow Trae to be that shooter).  I don't like that this hasn't worked as well as we all hoped, but I don't think any of us would be adverse to swapping Murray for equal talent at a different position.

I don't think all of the picks are a problem.  DJ is worth any lottery pick you could get in next year's draft...and probably the potential of two (with protection).  Beyond that is sketchy to be throwing out unprotected picks.

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