Hawks starting PF? It can’t be JJ

[Spud2nique]

24 minutes ago, Peoriabird said:

Small sample size maybe?

Not today I’m all drained but perhaps @kg01 could deposit his specimen into the cup.. 

Go Hawks!

[Peoriabird]

2 minutes ago, AHF said:

Hunter has definitely benefited from more attention given to his teammates in the playoffs like that Miami series.  He made good on those attempts.  Hopefully that will continue in both the regular and post-season to some degree for him.  Like with Bey, I'd expect that the 40% was a combination of better shot quality and periods of good shooting.

Shouldn't you only shoot open 3's? Or quality 3's. If you aren't that just poor BBIQ on the player not his teammates.

[AHF]

1 minute ago, Peoriabird said:

Against the Hawks

So when you said "playoffs" you meant "a single playoff series that I didn't mention."  OK.  He was definitely crazy hot against us which I would definitely attribute to small sample size and likely things that made him more successful in that single matchup so I guess I'm agreeing with you on that but I don't see that as comparable to 25 games against a lot of different teams.  

Either way, I'd love to see the quality of shot attempts for Bey in Atlanta versus in Detroit.  I think it would go a long way to suggestion whether his shooting was all about SSS hot streak or whether differences in his attempts could be a significant factor in the picture.

[AHF]

2 minutes ago, Peoriabird said:

Shouldn't you only shoot open 3's? Or quality 3's. If you aren't that just poor BBIQ on the player not his teammates.

No.  Good 3pt shooters don't need to only shoot open 3's.  Quality 3's is closer to what you would want but "quality" is a much less concrete term.  What is an open shot is the same for every player.  What is a quality shot for Steph Curry is different than what is a quality shot for Clint Capela.  

If you read my post as a criticism of Hunter, it wasn't.  He was not the focus of opposing D and did pretty well given that circumstance which is what you would want from someone like him.  My point was more that quality of shot can be a significant influence on shooting %s and that I think there was a real difference in quality of shot for Hunter in the playoffs versus the regular season which was one reason for the disparity in his 40% career playoff 3pt% and his career 35.6% regular season 3pt%.  (I.e., I would not attribute it all to Hunter just being hot in the playoffs and would say that we should expect higher than average shooting on his 3's as long as he continues to get those openings.)

[Peoriabird]

15 minutes ago, AHF said:

  Either way, I'd love to see the quality of shot attempts for Bey in Atlanta versus in Detroit.

A Quality shot is player dependent so it shouldn't matter what city the player is in

[Peoriabird]

3 minutes ago, AHF said:

No.  Good 3pt shooters don't need to only shoot open 3's.  Quality 3's is closer to what you would want but "quality" is a much less concrete term.  What is an open shot is the same for every player.  What is a quality shot for Steph Curry is different than what is a quality shot for Clint Capela.  

If you read my post as a criticism of Hunter, it wasn't.  He was not the focus of opposing D and did pretty well given that circumstance which is what you would want from someone like him.  My point was more that quality of shot can be a significant influence on shooting %s and that I think there was a real difference in quality of shot for Hunter in the playoffs versus the regular season which was one reason for the disparity in his 40% career playoff 3pt% and his career 35.6% regular season 3pt%.  (I.e., I would not attribute it all to Hunter just being hot in the playoffs and would say that we should expect higher than average shooting on his 3's as long as he continues to get those openings.)

Again...quality shots are decided by the shooter.  For example, Trae has taken a lot of poor quality 3 point shot throughout his career because he decided to take them.  The system doesn't dictate that he takes them, He does.

[AHF]

9 minutes ago, Peoriabird said:

Quality shots is player dependent so it shouldn't matter what city the player is in

When I am talking quality of shot, I am talking objective things like how open the player is, how many corner 3's, etc.  I would love to see if that changed from Detroit to Atlanta.  For example, in Detroit Bey was tied for 3rd in number of shots per minute last season behind Bojan and Ivey.  In Atlanta, Bey was 6th in shots per minute.  So he had a lower profile role in the offense and took a smaller number of shots per minute on an absolute basis.  I think Trae, Bogi, and others drew a lot more attention and opened the floor for him more than his teammates in Detroit.  So I would expect that he took more shots with a defender 3 or more feet away from him, 5 or more feet away from him, etc. in Atlanta and so you would expect a higher % on those attempts.  

You can see this extreme difference in at least one number:  Corner 3's.  Corner 3's are the shortest and highest % 3's in the game and you want to take as many as possible from there.  In Detroit last season, Bey took 29% of his 3pt attempts from the corner.  In Atlanta, Bey took 51.2% of his attempts from the corner.  That is a HUGE difference.  Bey shoots 40.4% from the corner for his career.  So there is no way anyone can tell me with a straight face that they believe he would continue to shoot the same % in Atlanta that he shot in Detroit when the % of his 3pt attempts from the corner almost doubled.  Given that change in his shot distribution, you absolutely have to predict a significant increase in 3pt% in Atlanta.

Just trying to make sure we aren't confusing "quality shot" with "quality of shot."

[theheroatl]

Since Masai is trying to lose his job and take over Ainge as the worst FO to work with in the league, I'll take a stab at our starters  with no further trades. Done.. this was easy

STARTER	2ND	3RD	4TH	5TH
Trae Young	Kobe Bufkin	Patty Mills	Dejounte Murray	Vit Krejci DD
Dejounte Murray	Bogdan Bogdanovic	Patty Mills	AJ Griffin	Wesley Matthews
De'Andre Hunter	AJ Griffin	Bogdan Bogdanovic	Saddiq Bey	Wesley Matthews
Saddiq Bey	Jalen Johnson	De'Andre Hunter	Mouhamed Gueye	Bruno Fernando
Clint Capela	Onyeka Okongwu	Bruno Fernando	Mouhamed Gueye	-

 

 

Edited July 21, 2023 by theheroatl

[Peoriabird]

11 minutes ago, AHF said:

When I am talking quality of shot, I am talking objective things like how open the player is, how many corner 3's, etc.  I would love to see if that changed from Detroit to Atlanta.  For example, in Detroit Bey was tied for 3rd in number of shots per minute last season behind Bojan and Ivey.  In Atlanta, Bey was 6th in shots per minute.  So he had a lower profile role in the offense and took a smaller number of shots per minute on an absolute basis.  I think Trae, Bogi, and others drew a lot more attention and opened the floor for him more than his teammates in Detroit.  So I would expect that he took more shots with a defender 3 or more feet away from him, 5 or more feet away from him, etc. in Atlanta and so you would expect a higher % on those attempts.  

You can see this extreme difference in at least one number:  Corner 3's.  Corner 3's are the shortest and highest % 3's in the game and you want to take as many as possible from there.  In Detroit last season, Bey took 29% of his 3pt attempts from the corner.  In Atlanta, Bey took 51.2% of his attempts from the corner.  That is a HUGE difference.  Bey shoots 40.4% from the corner for his career.  So there is no way anyone can tell me with a straight face that they believe he would continue to shoot the same % in Atlanta that he shot in Detroit when the % of his 3pt attempts from the corner almost doubled.  Given that change in his shot distribution, you absolutely have to predict a significant increase in 3pt% in Atlanta.

Just trying to make sure we aren't confusing "quality shot" with "quality of shot."

Its still up to the player to decide when and where to take his shots which isn't team dependent.  Shot selection is specific to the player and he decides where he likes to take his shots and where he moves to receive the ball.  If the player doesn't feel he can make a shot efficiently from a certain spot on the floor or he feel like the defense can influence his shot, he doesn't have to take that shot.  So it he took more corner threes in Atlanta, it was him choosing to do so simple plain and simple.  I'm pretty sure Detroit was not discouraging him from taking corner 3's.

[akay]

2 minutes ago, Peoriabird said:

Its still up to the player to decide when and where to take his shots which isn't team dependent.  Shot selection is specific to the player and he decides where he likes to take his shots and where he moves to receive the ball.  If the player doesn't feel he can make a shot efficiently from a certain spot on the floor or he feel like the defense can influence his shot, he doesn't have to take the shot.  So it he took more corner threes in Atlanta, it was him choosing to do so simple plain and simple.  I'm pretty sure Detroit was not discouraging him from taking corner 3's.

These players aren't on the court doing whatever they want, they listen to the coaches gameplan on how to play. Saddiq isn't taking more corner threes out of nowhere, it's a shot our team wants to take, so Quin puts the team in positions to take higher quality shots.

Saddiq didn't just wake up and decide he would start shooting more corner threes lol 

[Peoriabird]

3 minutes ago, akay said:

These players aren't on the court doing whatever they want, they listen to the coaches gameplan on how to play. Saddiq isn't taking more corner threes out of nowhere, it's a shot our team wants to take, so Quin puts the team in positions to take higher quality shots.

Saddiq didn't just wake up and decide he would start shooting more corner threes lol 

Sure coaches encourage players to run certain plays but we have witnessed Trae young for 5 years now so we should not be confused by what I established with players.  There should be no doubt in anybody's minds that Trae young does not follow some script especially in the 4 quarter of games.

[akay]

2 minutes ago, Peoriabird said:

Sure coaches encourage players to run certain plays but we have witnessed Trae young for 5 years now so we should not be confused by what I established with players.  There should be no doubt in anybody's minds that Trae young does not follow some script especially in the 4 quarter of games.

Can't compare how a superstar plays vs a role player. Trae makes plays and sets things up using his IQ and shot selection, the rest of the team needs to take advantage by using their skills on offense like shooting/cutting/rolling whatever.

Saddiq most definitely is being told where to run and take shots by the coach so that Trae can set him up for easier shots than he was getting in Detroit.

Also, pretty reductive to say coaches just encourage players to run certain plays - we saw almost immediately Quin put an emphasis on shooting more 3's and so our # of 3's per game went up by a lot.

That wasn't players deciding they wanted to start shooting more 3's out of nowhere

[Peoriabird]

7 minutes ago, akay said:

Can't compare how a superstar plays vs a role player. Trae makes plays and sets things up using his IQ and shot selection, the rest of the team needs to take advantage by using their skills on offense like shooting/cutting/rolling whatever.

Saddiq most definitely is being told where to run and take shots by the coach so that Trae can set him up for easier shots than he was getting in Detroit.

Also, pretty reductive to say coaches just encourage players to run certain plays - we saw almost immediately Quin put an emphasis on shooting more 3's and so our # of 3's per game went up by a lot.

That wasn't players deciding they wanted to start shooting more 3's out of nowhere

Quinn stated that he didn't change anything except encourage more 3 point shooting

[akay]

2 minutes ago, Peoriabird said:

Quinn stated that he didn't change anything except encourage more 3 point shooting

Changing shot selection sounds like something

[Spud2nique]

@kg01 @JayBirdHawk

 

JJ’s first 30 games playing significant minutes..

[akay]

 

Jalen MIP szn incoming

[AHF]

57 minutes ago, Peoriabird said:

Its still up to the player to decide when and where to take his shots which isn't team dependent.  Shot selection is specific to the player and he decides where he likes to take his shots and where he moves to receive the ball.  If the player doesn't feel he can make a shot efficiently from a certain spot on the floor or he feel like the defense can influence his shot, he doesn't have to take that shot.  So it he took more corner threes in Atlanta, it was him choosing to do so simple plain and simple.  I'm pretty sure Detroit was not discouraging him from taking corner 3's.

I don't even know what to say to this except I can't disagree more strongly.  If you think players have the option to take more corner 3's but just choose not to for ****s and giggles then you must think so lowly of the BBIQ of NBA players that I can't even process it.  Everyone takes every decent corner 3 they possible can if they are any kind of 3pt shooter. 

Guys get asked to do different things on different teams and in different offenses.  Bey shooting 29% corner 3's versus 51.2% is a massive change and was absolutely a product of what was being run on the floor and not just a choice by Bey.  He was put in that position much more and that shot was open much more when he was there because of his teammates and what Quin was running versus what he had in Detroit.  It was not a mere choice.

[macdaddy]

1 hour ago, theheroatl said:

Since Masai is trying to lose his job and take over Ainge as the worst FO to work with in the league, I'll take a stab at our starters  with no further trades. Done.. this was easy

STARTER	2ND	3RD	4TH	5TH
Trae Young	Kobe Bufkin	Patty Mills	Dejounte Murray	Vit Krejci DD
Dejounte Murray	Bogdan Bogdanovic	Patty Mills	AJ Griffin	Wesley Matthews
De'Andre Hunter	AJ Griffin	Bogdan Bogdanovic	Saddiq Bey	Wesley Matthews
Saddiq Bey	Jalen Johnson	De'Andre Hunter	Mouhamed Gueye	Bruno Fernando
Clint Capela	Onyeka Okongwu	Bruno Fernando	Mouhamed Gueye	-

 

 

I don't think Bufkin plays anything but CP/garbage time for a while

I have it as

Trae / Dj

DJ / Bogi / AJ

Hunter / Bey

JJ/ Hunter / Bey

Capela / OO

That's the 9 man rotation that Quin likes

[AHF]

3 minutes ago, macdaddy said:

I don't think Bufkin plays anything but CP/garbage time for a while

I have it as

Trae / Dj

DJ / Bogi / AJ

Hunter / Bey

JJ/ Hunter / Bey

Capela / OO

That's the 9 man rotation that Quin likes

If that is the rotation, I think Bogi/AJ will get some time at SF as well.  Using last  year's minutes would mean DM could play 13 mpg at PG in addition to the 12 or so minutes he is on the bench.  25 minutes to split between Bogi and AJ isn't enough for the two of them.  (And that assumes no PT for Mills who played 14 mpg last season and 29 mpg the prior season).

[macdaddy]

8 minutes ago, AHF said:

If that is the rotation, I think Bogi/AJ will get some time at SF as well.  Using last  year's minutes would mean DM could play 13 mpg at PG in addition to the 12 or so minutes he is on the bench.  25 minutes to split between Bogi and AJ isn't enough for the two of them.  (And that assumes no PT for Mills who played 14 mpg last season and 29 mpg the prior season).

There will be injuries and back to backs etc.  I'm definitely cool with trying AJ at SF.  Depending on matchups i can't see Bogi effectively guarding a lot of 3s.