The Bazemore Conundrum

[NBASupes]

Kent Bazemore is a very unique player.  On the surface, he is one of the best players on Atlanta (4th to 5th best), giving you decent rebounding for a SF, very good if he was a SG, scores at a solid clip, runs more than anyone other Hawk at a very good speed, second to only Kyle Korver who's always been world class in that category since he's been a member of the Hawks and he has solid defensive tools. On surface, he seems like a good player for us and he actually replaces Carroll's value surface wise quite well but he's is where the film, stats and impact doesn't equal the surface level as we dig into Kent Bazemore. 

 

NBA.com, shouts out, your stat tracking is top notch. 

 

Bazemore is our best player at rebounding chances. Higher on a consistent basis than Millsap and double that of Horford which is why I keep telling you, Horford isn't around the boards. Saying, well he's not rebounding is bullshit. Anyway, I am going off track, back to Bazemore. While he is getting the most rebounding chances on the team, he is primarily only getting uncontested rebounds at 86%. While DMC has 74% at had a contested rebounder % of slightly over 20%. This makes for a massive difference. This means that Carroll battling for rebounds even if his rebounding percentage which is just solid for a SF is respectable. Bazemore on the other hand is getting obvious rebounds. Which leads to the Horford question. Why is Horford only getting so many rebounding opportunities this year compared to last?  From the numbers, he has the same close range % then he did last year but the drop is in around FT line range and past it. When you look into it more, you start to notice something. It's Carroll. Carroll was a much better offensive rebounder than Bazemore especially in the paint and superior from 19+ ft. This means teams have to account for Carroll's rebounding activity on the perimeter while they don't for Bazemore. This small difference can make a massive difference for coaches gameplan. 

 

Once you start to go into the numbers you quickly realize, this team is not much different than last years. Their better at 2pt fg%, a step worse at 3pt%, rebounding has gotten worse and over fg% is similar. Defensively, it's not much different either. In fact, the bench is even more productive so what is wrong with your 2015-16 Atlanta Hawks:

The Bazemore Effect. 

Yes, the Bazemore effect. In 2014-15 via 82games.com, Kent Bazemore was our worst lineup fit on the roster. Twice as bad as Elton Brand and only better than a player we traded in the middle of the season in Adreian Payne. Our lineups, no matter who was in it was had worse efficiency with Kent Bazemore than anyone else on the roster. Only player close was Austin Daye who simply had too small of a sample size and was a scrub. This is the opposite of a Kyle Korver who was efficient with any roster pairing he was placed with which continues the stamp that Korver is our most important piece. 

As for 2015-16, like in 2014-15, Bazemore has been a part of some of our best lineups +/- but only for a smart period of time. There is no lineup where's he played 60 minutes or more with a higher than 50% chance of winning and it reminds the same this year. This may seem small but while playing over a thousand minutes, we had a 56% chance of winning with Carroll. This may seem small but this number is quite massive. The elites give their teams a 60-65% chance of winning. The HOF elite's give their team a 70-75% chance of winning which is unreal, those are your Curry's and Lebron's. To give your team the same chance of winning as an elite as DMC does in the starting lineup makes this team have a higher margin of error but since I mention that. Why?

If Carroll is giving us nearly the same thing Bazemore is on surface, how is Carroll the problem. On stats, Korver is the problem, look Supes. I am looking, on surface, Kyle has dropped on from his AS level performance but when I dig deeper. He's having the best two man lineup of any member of the team by a mile and there is only 4 players Bazemore is having success with and that's Dennis, Al, Kyle and Tiago and the sample size is too small for Tiago with Baze while Korver is damn near successful with any pairing on our roster. This is an issue and I sure Bud see. It's a problem when you struggle with 2/4 the starters on the court. While Carroll had a great success with all of the starters and bench players as well. With a very small sample size, Bazemore only had success with Mack and Millsap last year.  Big shout out to Dennis, his improvement is all this season. He was ass last year. 

Let's get into the tape. The biggest issue is between Carroll and Bazemore is size and overall BBIQ, especially defensive. Carroll and Bazemore are both hustle players. They are both longer NBA players and they are both really good NBA runners. They tend to run more than most guards and wings in the NBA. Both have good defensive tools. They have developed into solid shooters. While Carroll is better at scoring off of the move, Bazemore is much better at creating his own offense. Where they differ is size and BBIQ.  

 

Where size plays a role is on defense. Bazemore has a 6'11 wingspan which is longer than Carroll's and it does show in terms of effecting the three point range, giving up 33% at a 36% freq from v. wings who are usually taller is really good while Carroll gave up 35% at a 37.8 freq. Carroll is one of the best 3pt line defenders in the NBA while Bazemore was good at 3pt line defense. Where they completely differ is defending wings outside of that. While Bazemore has better defensive numbers on surface, we used Carroll as a combo forward. We used him in different pairings which really helped our offense just as much as our different. He didn't need help defensively anywhere near as much as Bazemore which really helped Horford. The biggest difference is BBIQ. Carroll's BBIQ was huge for us. One of the most smart defenders in the NBA. Who always was in the right position. While he isn't the iso defender that Bazemore is, he is a much better team defender and plays within the offensive to a supreme degree. These are things that do not show up on the stat sheet for tracking but it does in the film room. 

With that said, this team doesn't need much. Dennis improvement has been very good but he's still not ready to be a championship PG unless he takes a mid-season leap which we have seen before from very talented players. Jeff in the last 10 games has been back and he was dealing with an injury which caused issues to his production. Horford hasn't been much different than last year. Better in some areas and worse in others. He's doing a lot more help on defense this season which shows in the numbers and he is out of position a lot more due to it than last year. Millsap seemed to take an volume leap but his efficiency has dropped. Korver seem to drop in every category but not substantially which is a good thing. Bazemore and Dennis has taken a huge leap. They are miles better this year than last. The bench is better across the board especially with each other but far less efficient with the starters than last year.  This team doesn't need a major chance but they do need a wing. Bazemore conundrum is he's not ready to be a starter on a winning team. He is a starter for a 50% winning team which we are but Bazemore is the reason why. Our numbers are underachieving but overachieving as well. We should have a much better record but the numbers but our lineup fits say we would be a 42 win team. Atlanta is having the Cleveland Cavs issue last year before Mozgov with a bad fit issue. 

Edited February 9, 2016 by NBASupes

[hylndr11]

Great post - hopefully this is true and its something we can find.  Nobody is looking at it like this but it makes sense because of the way things are falling, teams are getting more open looks this year for sure,

[hylndr11]

Carroll fighting through screens and moving around the court as a thicker player would just cause them so many more problems like you said combo forward.  I dont know how we get a wing with keeping the team in tact.  

[NBASupes]

19 minutes ago, hylndr11 said:

Carroll fighting through screens and moving around the court as a thicker player would just cause them so many more problems like you said combo forward.  I dont know how we get a wing with keeping the team in tact.  

It's not possible to keep our two headed monster at PG. The biggest difference for our bench last year to this year and why are bench looks much better this year is because Dennis is a lot more consistent and producing at an average PG clip and for a bench player, that's showing stardom to a degree. But the issue remains, even if Dennis can replace 80% of Jeff and bring somethings better, can Jeff's trade get us a player who can add what we need to get us over the top. We really are close. We should not do something stupid but moving Bazemore to the bench is a safe bet if we can get a nice piece on the wing. Adding Bazemore to the bench would take some of the steam of losing Dennis to the starting lineup to a degree.

Edited February 9, 2016 by NBASupes

[Lurker]

Once again, this team is not winning with a big SF unless said SF is very close to elite if not elite. Parker isn't the answer, maybe Hayward or Middleton is but you are not getting Hayward or Middleton by parting with just Jeff. It'd have to be at least two pieces.

They may be "one piece away", however how are you going to get that piece without parting with significant pieces and creating more holes. That's why I'm saying blow it up completely.

[Lurker]

I mean, you are going to have to trade both Horford and Teague or a pick and Teague to get a sniff from someone. Sorry but teams are going to undervalue Teague and not see him as a good enough player to part a significant player for.

So the likely thing that needs to happen is make a hard decision of time to rebuild.

[JTB]

Ok good break down....I was sick of hearing that Bazemore isn't starter material with no good reason behind it since his stats show that he is starter material but this actually makes sense on why he may be a liability based on how we are using him since he has to play SF......HOWEVER being that this is Bazemores first year starting other than the games he started for the Lakers after being traded by Golden State mid season a couple of years back, one would have to agree that he can improve into a full time starter at SG and be effective in the future when looking at the major steps he has taken this season. But as of now I wouldn't mind putting Bazmore back on the bench with Dennis, Thabo, and Mike Scott! Hell it would make us deeper and Bazemore will still be used as a heavily used rotational player but this time off the bench for Korver at SG....

but please keep in mind that though this all may be true, this is not all of Bazemores fault! He is playing out of position and Korver isn't a strong defender either and he regularly need help as well. I wonder if you play Baze at SG where he should be, if he could lock down his opponent without any help and perhaps Horford can then be in the right position more on defense instead of trying to help everybody.

Going a little further what happens if we put korver on the bench and start Bazemore and Thabo? How much will the defense increase and how much will the offense decrease? Bazemore on SGs may still need help but no where near as much as when he guards bigger Sfs and Thabo should be able to hold his own like he always has been against Sfs....If this is what Bud is facing and knowing you can't really make a lot of moves to get a SF who can help immediately without getting rid of one of our main players why hasn't Bud tried a lineup of Bazemore and Thabo? 

 

And if we need a SF who can really hold their own Im sure Jeff Teague can net you back a SF like Jae Crowder but what happens to the offense then with the starters and the bench since Dennis won't be running the show?

 

[hylndr11]

Right -

17 minutes ago, Lurker said:

Once again, this team is not winning with a big SF unless said SF is very close to elite if not elite. Parker isn't the answer, maybe Hayward or Middleton is but you are not getting Hayward or Middleton by parting with just Jeff. It'd have to be at least two pieces.

They may be "one piece away", however how are you going to get that piece without parting with significant pieces and creating more holes. That's why I'm saying blow it up completely.

Why cant they win  with a bigger SF or a la the article above something that gives us back the benefits of Carroll

[JTB]

18 minutes ago, Lurker said:

I mean, you are going to have to trade both Horford and Teague or a pick and Teague to get a sniff from someone. Sorry but teams are going to undervalue Teague and not see him as a good enough player to part a significant player for.

So the likely thing that needs to happen is make a hard decision of time to rebuild.

While I agree I also know that Bud isn't going to make a decision to actually rebuild unless he's doing it around a substantial piece and by substantial piece I mean a star player.

Teague alone won't net you back anything significant as far a star player goes (only a role player a best) but Teague with Horford will net you something BIG in return and you may have to throw in Korver to sweeten the pot which why I have been suggesting that we trade Teague and Horford for Blake Griffin...lose out this season and go into the off season building around Dennis, Sap, & Blake. 

Blake gives us things we don't have and things we have all been bitching about for years:

-Star player / Franchise piece

-Player that the refs respect

-Player with a household name in this league

-Player that can take over a game offensively

-Player that can put asses in seats

-Player that other STAR players will actually consider playing with in ATL

Theres too many hawk fans that over value our players. No star in the league are saying "hey I want to go play with teague or korver or Horford or Sap" hell even Joe Johnson couldn't pull a star to come play with him and to be honest its not just star players its even good role players! Blake changes all of that. I don't care that he isn't better in a hawk fans mindset than horford or maybe even Millsap...the league including the players in this league would rather play with Blake than any of our players. Until the hawks organization realizes a star is needed to actual be contender to win we will NOT be legit contenders.

So again I would give up the house to get one star player back under Bud that way when we enter Free agency players will actually consider atlanta for once and the rebuilding process wouldn't be a long one.

However if Bud can't net that one star player we mind as well get use to what we have cause Bud isn't going to blow up a team to get a high unproven draft pick.  Oh and let me say that the clippers would definitely entertain the idea of being a deeper roster so that they can take on deeper teams like Golden state and the Spurs. We would actually be helping them and ourselves but for us we will likely not win too many games until we get Blake back but thats fine cause we weren't going to the championship anyways.

 

Edited February 9, 2016 by JTB

[hylndr11]

I think the reason he hastn tried thabo baz lineup because of the way teams are playing Kyle and how that benefits us still. 

[JTB]

2 minutes ago, hylndr11 said:

I think the reason he hastn tried thabo baz lineup because of the way teams are playing Kyle and how that benefits us still. 

Good point but if offense only slightly decreases and defense along with rebounding opportunities increase by large amount Bud need to take that risk to see what happens. Trust that Teague, Sap, Horford will provide for us on offense and anything from Baze and Thabo will be just a bonus offensively.

Huh this is another reason we need a star...everybody has to do their part on offense nobody can have a specific role on this team...we need all 5 starters dropping there points and if we don't get it someone has to try to be this take over guy they aren't meant to be.

[NBASupes]

21 minutes ago, Lurker said:

Once again, this team is not winning with a big SF unless said SF is very close to elite if not elite. Parker isn't the answer, maybe Hayward or Middleton is but you are not getting Hayward or Middleton by parting with just Jeff. It'd have to be at least two pieces.

They may be "one piece away", however how are you going to get that piece without parting with significant pieces and creating more holes. That's why I'm saying blow it up completely.

I would say he is. His defensive numbers may not reflect it but he does three things this team needs. 

 

1.  His production at SF in the right setting, was much better than anything we have ever gotten out of Bazemore or Thabo in Atlanta. His rookie 70% win in his 3rd PT lineup with Giannis showed that he has the ability to really shine when the right fit is in place. That lineup featured Dudley, Ersan, Knight and Sanders. It was a large enough sample size for it to have potential. 

 

2. He is a #1 option type on offense. That is critical for us. We do not have one on this roster. Not to mention, he is at his best when limited to two dribbles are less which is bad for Milwaukee due to their personnel but good for us due to our personnel. 

 

3. He has very high BBIQ. This is something you must have to play within our system. This is the reason why we simply aren't doing well on offense with Bazemore even if he brings as much on offense as Carroll. 

 

This season has been a tough one. Their personnel is wacky for him and their lack of true centers and competent PG's is a sign of disaster for his development. 

[NBASupes]

14 minutes ago, JTB said:

While I agree I also know that Bud isn't going to make a decision to actually rebuild unless he's doing it around a substantial piece and by substantial piece I mean a star player.

Teague alone won't net you back anything significant as far a star player goes (only a role player a best) but Teague with Horford will net you something BIG in return and you may have to throw in Korver to sweeten the pot which why I have been suggesting that we trade Teague and Horford for Blake Griffin...lose out this season and go into the off season building around Dennis, Sap, & Blake. 

Blake gives us things we don't have and things we have all been bitching about for years:

-Star player / Franchise piece

-Player that the refs respect

-Player with a household name in this league

-Player that can take over a game offensively

-Player that can put asses in seats

-Player that other STAR players will actually consider playing with in ATL

Theres too many hawk fans that over value our players. No star in the league are saying "hey I want to go play with teague or korver or Horford or Sap" hell even Joe Johnson couldn't pull a star to come play with him and to be honest its not just star players its even good role players! Blake changes all of that. I don't care that he isn't better in a hawk fans mindset than horford or maybe even Millsap...the league including the players in this league would rather play with Blake than any of our players. Until the hawks organization realizes a star is needed to actual be contender to win we will NOT be legit contenders.

So again I would give up the house to get one star player back under Bud that way when we enter Free agency players will actually consider atlanta for once and the rebuilding process wouldn't be a long one.

However if Bud can't net that one star player we mind as well get use to what we have cause Bud isn't going to blow up a team to get a high unproven draft pick.  Oh and let me say that the clippers would definitely entertain the idea of being a deeper roster so that they can take on deeper teams like Golden state and the Spurs. We would actually be helping them and ourselves but for us we will likely not win too many games until we get Blake back but thats fine cause we weren't going to the championship anyways.

 

Trading Horford is beyond stupid. You lose him you lose most of your defense, offense and leadership. No matter how you frame it, it will never make sense. 

Edited February 9, 2016 by NBASupes

[NBASupes]

10 minutes ago, hylndr11 said:

I think the reason he hastn tried thabo baz lineup because of the way teams are playing Kyle and how that benefits us still. 

You can't try for too long because it is the same issue like Dennis and Jeff combined lineups. It's not effective. 

[JTB]

1 minute ago, NBASupes said:

Trading Horford is beyond stupid. You lose him you lose most of your defense, offense and leadership. No matter how you frame it, it will never makes sense. 

I get you think Horford is as good as Karl Malone but it is beyond stupid to give Horford a max deal knowing players out there aint dying to play with this dude. I like BIG AL but I would trade him and anyone else on this roster to have a household name in a heart beat.

You really think players around the league wouldn't want to come play with Blake Griffin under Mike Budenholzer? LOL...players would love that opportunity. We can get a defensive BIG man if thats your concern.

[pimp]

2 minutes ago, NBASupes said:

Trading Horford is beyond stupid. You lose him you lose most of your defense, offense and leadership. No matter how you frame it, it will never makes sense. 

Depends on who you are getting back in a trade. It's not like he's a superstar. 
No one on this team should be untouchable...

[NBASupes]

Just now, pimp said:

Depends on who you are getting back in a trade. It's not like he's a superstar. 
No one on this team should be untouchable...

He's a superstar for us. We lose him and it's like losing the foundation of a house, it just fall apart. Him and Korver are our two most untouchable players in terms of impact. 

 

You guys really have to quit looking at surface stats, they don't tell the story what so ever. There isn't a single center that you can replace with Horford right now and improve. Not one. Go head, name the ones you think are better. We will not improve. Because none of them solve our biggest issues and the issues they do solve just creates other issues we didn't have before. 

[JTB]

1 minute ago, pimp said:

Depends on who you are getting back in a trade. It's not like he's a superstar. 
No one on this team should be untouchable...

Exactly! I know that Horford is better defensively but he has no pull like Griffin or any other star player. I will give up horfords defense for a star player even if they aren't good at defense including Melo, Harden, Durant and as I said before Blake Griffin. Im giving up the whole house for one of those guys.....Hell I would even consider trading Horford plus others for Brook Lopez.

Point is, is that we need a legit star player with a house hold name to reel in other quality players. ITs been an issue for years.

[JTB]

3 minutes ago, NBASupes said:

He's a superstar for us. We lose him and it's like losing the foundation of a house, it just fall apart. Him and Korver are our two most untouchable players in terms of impact. 

 

You guys really have to quit looking at surface stats, they don't tell the story what so ever. There isn't a single center that you can replace with Horford right now and improve. Not one. Go head, name the ones you think are better. We will not improve. Because none of them solve our biggest issues and the issues they do solve just creates other issues we didn't have before. 

Ok Supe that is just silly and you know it....SMH

Horford is a good player but lets be real he's not a superstar or we would have went to the ECF back when Joe Johnson was on this team. Stop over valuing our players man. WE NEED A LEGIT STAR PLAYER....the legit star player will reel in good talent to play around him. NO player out there is foaming at the mouth to play with horford.

Horford is good but he's not the kind of player that others seek to go play with to win a championship

Edited February 9, 2016 by JTB

[NBASupes]

2 minutes ago, JTB said:

Ok Supe that is just silly and you know it....SMH

Name one? 

I can name them all. The issues will be clear as night.

 

Name Cousins, I can tell you why not. 

Name Drummond, I can tell you why not. 

Name any damn center. Anyone. Name them all. 

Paul George said it best, Horford has the most complete skill-set of any big man. You might want 20 points per a game and more rebounds but what he does for this offense and defense isn't just going to show up on a stat sheet. That's why I am adamant v. trading Horford. Him and Bud represent everything that embodies Atlanta.