Collins ain't fixing this

[Thomas]

Don't believe it is wearing rose colored glasses not expecting a 25 game suspension of JC. The injury stuff is the usual yearly roll of the dice thing though that seems to hit almost every team at some point during the season so did have thoughts about that. Will be interesting to see the fit/adjustments when JC comes back and then of course the affect on wins/losses. Comfortable saying my 42 win prediction is way out the window now but hope we are competitively entertaining when our core can all hit the floor.

[Spud2nique]

2 hours ago, PSSSHHHRRR87 said:

Do you see the title of this thread?

Yes I do. I don’t understand the mixup.

You have however mentioned in the past that it’ll take us about 7 years or so to rebuild. That’s actually a mistake. No team has ever taken 7 years to build.

Having Collins for the season would have make a big impact imo. This is however a no excuse league.

I won’t hit my 46 Hawks win prediction but again the low ballers got lucky with their lowball prediction and I do believe it’s mainly due to the absence of our second best player.

Were we going to win in all? Definitely not, did he hinder our chances at building wins through chemistry? Most definitely.

You have said in the past that you expect this rebuild to take 7 years? Just want to let you know that no team in NBA history that was successfully assembled took 7 years to come about. Player contracts just don’t allow for that luxury. 
 

[JayBirdHawk]

10 minutes ago, Spud2nique said:

 I won’t hit my 46 Hawks win prediction but again the low ballers got lucky with their lowball prediction and I do believe it’s mainly due to the absence of our second best player.

Were we going to win in all? Definitely not, did he hinder our chances at building wins through chemistry? Most definitely.

I predicted 37 wins, here's why:

1. We went into the season with Evan Turner as backup.

2. Len as a starter, who promptly disappointed, backed up by only Jones and Bruno.

3. I expected Parker to be good on offense, horrible on defense, which he is.

4. I assumed Parson nor Crabbe would not see the floor except closer to the trade deadline.

5. We would be relying on our 2 lottery picks to shore up our wing defense

6. I assumed the continued growth of Trae, Kevin and John would be enough to get us an additional 8 wins this season over last season's 29 wins.

7. We had 6 returning players, it takes time to gel.

Then Collins happened. 

 

[PSSSHHHRRR87]

52 minutes ago, Spud2nique said:

Yes I do. I don’t understand the mixup.

You have however mentioned in the past that it’ll take us about 7 years or so to rebuild. That’s actually a mistake. No team has ever taken 7 years to build.

Having Collins for the season would have make a big impact imo. This is however a no excuse league.

I won’t hit my 46 Hawks win prediction but again the low ballers got lucky with their lowball prediction and I do believe it’s mainly due to the absence of our second best player.

Were we going to win in all? Definitely not, did he hinder our chances at building wins through chemistry? Most definitely.

You have said in the past that you expect this rebuild to take 7 years? Just want to let you know that no team in NBA history that was successfully assembled took 7 years to come about. Player contracts just don’t allow for that luxury. 
 

Rebuilds take time and most of the time, it takes longer than expected. The Sixers have been rebuilding their roster since 2012 and in 2018 became contenders. They will become better as Embiid progresses. Giannis was drafted in 2014 and Bucks are contenders in 2019. It took Curry four years to make his first playoff and another three before he won a championship. Most players don't hit their prime until 24-25 and in a league full of one-and-done's, that's 5-6 years for them to mature. Before the season, when I looked at this team, I saw how young and raw this team was and I based my expectations on the lack of experience from our starters and the has-beens that fill our bench. Our rooks will take time to mature and to gain experience. Expecting this team to make the playoffs and be effective right out of the gate is putting the expectations too high. Yes, the Eastern conference is a dud and the Hawks had a good chance of being an 8th seed, but is that what posters really want? A first-round exit vs. the Bucks and the 15th pick? I hate watching us lose by 30 and our pitiful defense just as much as everyone else, but we aren't Los Angeles, Texas, or Florida where we have a reason outside of basketball that attracts All-Star players to the Hawks. Our best bet is to build through the draft/trades and then hope we can attract an All Star for basketball reasons to put us over the top.

[Spud2nique]

2 minutes ago, PSSSHHHRRR87 said:

A first-round exit vs. the Bucks and the 15th pick?

Sometimes if you don’t take the route of having your young guys experience at least a bit of playoff experience/exposure then they turn into a 10 year rebuild like the Wolves and Suns have going on. 
 

I agree it could take a couple years but Trae is an elite player right now. We shouldn’t base a player’s prime years based on his age but rather his dominance in the league. Trae is a top 5 scorer and assist man in the league. 
 

He’s not going to be patient for 7 years. I thought we were gonna be a low seed and get some exposure to playoff ball and it’s still possible this year but makes it more difficult with the Collins suspension. 
 

I love our rebuild and think it’s going well. I’m not trying to rush this in any way as I’m well aware that a rushed rebuild is a complete botch and sets us back 3-5 years. Then again, with Trae, I’m kinda ready to go to the playoffs soon and so is he imo.

[High5]

There have been some unfair "I told you so" type of posts.  Collins isn't a player you can just give the ball to and let him go to work (not consistently anyway), but there are many more ways to affect the game. We could very easily have 5 more wins right now with a few more rebounds, a few more open 3's made, a few more athletic plays in the paint, etc. 11-16 with our brutal schedule and two rookies getting significant minutes would feel like a success. 

[PSSSHHHRRR87]

1 hour ago, Spud2nique said:

Sometimes if you don’t take the route of having your young guys experience at least a bit of playoff experience/exposure then they turn into a 10 year rebuild like the Wolves and Suns have going on. 
 

I agree it could take a couple years but Trae is an elite player right now. We shouldn’t base a player’s prime years based on his age but rather his dominance in the league. Trae is a top 5 scorer and assist man in the league. 
 

He’s not going to be patient for 7 years. I thought we were gonna be a low seed and get some exposure to playoff ball and it’s still possible this year but makes it more difficult with the Collins suspension. 
 

I love our rebuild and think it’s going well. I’m not trying to rush this in any way as I’m well aware that a rushed rebuild is a complete botch and sets us back 3-5 years. Then again, with Trae, I’m kinda ready to go to the playoffs soon and so is he imo.

I do agree that it's fine line we walk between being patient and losing Trae. Trae has ZERO ties to Atlanta and probably would have rather been a Maverick on draft day than being traded to the Hawks.

[AHF]

3 hours ago, TheNorthCydeRises said:

 

With all of the bricks that these guys shoot from the perimeter, I bet they could build Rome in 18 hours.

That was a good one.  

[Spud2nique]

24 minutes ago, PSSSHHHRRR87 said:

I do agree that it's fine line we walk between being patient and losing Trae. Trae has ZERO ties to Atlanta and probably would have rather been a Maverick on draft day than being traded to the Hawks.

Well fortunately for us, he’s a Hawk and I think he likes his new home as he’s screamed out several times on the court...

 

THIS IS MY CITY !!!!!!

 

[AHF]

3 hours ago, Spud2nique said:

I won’t hit my 46 Hawks win prediction but again the low ballers got lucky with their lowball prediction and I do believe it’s mainly due to the absence of our second best player.

Were we going to win in all? Definitely not, did he hinder our chances at building wins through chemistry? Most definitely.

 

We'll be able to see where we normalize after his return.  Are we a 56% win team with him?  If so, even if our total record is lower then I'd say your prediction was really good.  If we are only a 45% win team with him, then your prediction was too high regardless of his injury.

2 hours ago, PSSSHHHRRR87 said:

Rebuilds take time and most of the time, it takes longer than expected. The Sixers have been rebuilding their roster since 2012 and in 2018 became contenders. 

Just since I've argued this point with the now absent doctor, the Sixers were not rebuilding in 2012-13.  They tried for the playoffs and just missed it.

They tore down and started rebuilding for the 2013-14 season which means they were in the 2nd round of the playoffs in year 5 of their rebuild.  At least, that is the way I look at it.

[Spud2nique]

8 minutes ago, AHF said:

We'll be able to see where we normalize after his return.  Are we a 56% win team with him?  If so, even if our total record is lower then I'd say your prediction was really good.  If we are only a 45% win team with him, then your prediction was too high regardless of his injury.

I agree with this minus the time that we would have built momentum and reps to where we are now. We only played a few games with Collins. I’m not saying it’ll be like coming from summer league but we lost some chemistry not having him with us that may show in the first couple weeks of his return.

Having said that, I firmly believe we are a 56% win team with him here. We have 55 game remaining. 31-24 the rest of the way would hit the 56% threshold and I’m pretty sure we can hit that mark. I wouldn’t be totally surprised if we didn’t given the momentum thing but it’s definitely still possible.

For the people that had us at 30 wins, that’s a 36% win clip so for the remaining 55, in order for them to be correct the Hawks would have to go 20-35. Unless we are tanking on purpose at this point, there is no way we go 20-35 the rest of the way. I am willing to put my avatar on the line against would be bettors!!!

 

[Thomas]

16 minutes ago, Spud2nique said:

For the people that had us at 30 wins, that’s a 36% win clip so for the remaining 55, in order for them to be correct the Hawks would have to go 20-35. Unless we are tanking on purpose at this point, there is no way we go 20-35 the rest of the way. I am willing to put my avatar on the line against would be bettors!!!

Could go very South on this you know but indeed you are honorable and an adult who actually will honor those avatar bets. Hoping we are in some kinda conversation about wins near the end of the season when it matters much more than now. 

[terrell]

7 hours ago, PSSSHHHRRR87 said:

Do you see the title of this thread? Collins ain't fixing this nor was he making us a winning franchise. Healthy or not, suspension or no suspension, this is not a winning roster.

We are Trae Young, a couple promising rookies, and a band of misfits currently without JC. Even if we add in Collins win shares from last season up to this point to the current record, we're still have a sub .500 record. We still don't have a starting center or a backup PG which is the two biggest glaring weaknesses... and neither issues can Collins give us help for. Jabari has stepped up in Collins' absence and has basically matched JC's production from last season. Jabari will not be putting up these numbers from the bench. All Collins coming back means is that we'll see less of VC at PF and the small-ball offense and we won't be losing games by 30. I'm not trying to discount what John Collins means for this team and he is my favorite Hawk and I see him as a key player, but he and Trae are not enough to make this a winning team. We need so much more than what we have and those two are able to give...

Our defense is atrocious and it starts from the back court. How many layups did Indiana have against us last time we played them? We give up nearly 52 ppg in the paint (27th in the league)... in an era of the NBA where teams shoot primarily threes. I'm tired of seeing Damian Jones too. A center that can't rebound and plays defense likes his feet are stuck in cement. We need production from that position.

Teams have been doubling Trae every game because he is the primary and only ball handler that the Hawks have. Huerter coming back has lessen this burden somewhat, but he plays from the bench and does not give us what Trae does. No one else has the explosiveness or dribbling ability that Trae provides for the Hawks. Collins primarily gets his scoring from second chance opportunities, running the floor, and dunks. He's not a guy that beats you one-on-one nor is he a spot-up shooter. He plays cleanup.

I will start believing in this roster when we draft our backup PG and if Cam or Hunter develops into a consistent secondary scoring option and we fill the holes on this roster. I am willing to give the rooks time to become our Thompson... which allow Collins to be our Draymond.

Nah, we're more like the old Suns. lol

Trae/Nash

Cam/JJ

Hunter/Marion

Collins/Amare

[Spud2nique]

30 minutes ago, terrell said:

Nah, we're more like the old Suns. lol

Trae/Nash

Cam/JJ

Hunter/Marion

Collins/Amare

I wanna be the Pistons of the 80’s...later 80’s. 
 

pg- Trae/Zeke

sg- Cam/Dumars

sf- Hunter/Rodman

pf- Bruno/Mahorn

c- ?/ Laimbeer (Steven Adams?,  Tristan Thompson?) All I know is Len/Jones aren’t the ones.

[terrell]

2 hours ago, PSSSHHHRRR87 said:

I do agree that it's fine line we walk between being patient and losing Trae. Trae has ZERO ties to Atlanta and probably would have rather been a Maverick on draft day than being traded to the Hawks.

Mavs werent taking TRae according to Cuban. Hed probably be a Knick..lol

Edited December 17, 2019 by terrell

[terrell]

8 minutes ago, Spud2nique said:

I wanna be the Pistons of the 80’s...later 80’s. 
 

pg- Trae/Zeke

sg- Cam/Dumars

sf- Hunter/Rodman

pf- Bruno/Mahorn

c- ?/ Laimbeer (Steven Adams?,  Tristan Thompson?) All I know is Len/Jones aren’t the ones.

Hawks are too soft to be the Pistons...Hunter better take some serious rebounding classes. And Bruno at PF? Where's John? lol

Edited December 17, 2019 by terrell

[Spud2nique]

3 minutes ago, terrell said:

Hawks are too soft to be the Pistons...Hunter better take some serious rebounding classes. And Bruno at PF? Where's John? lol

Salley? He can be both. Like a morphed Mahorn/Salley. Or Collins can be Salley. Ya there ya go.  

[TheNorthCydeRises]

10 hours ago, PSSSHHHRRR87 said:

I am willing to give the rooks time to become our Thompson... which allow Collins to be our Draymond.

 

Like Terrell said, we're more 2000s Phoenix than 2010s Golden State.  And Collins is definitely more Amare than Draymond.

There's only 1 big on this roster that even comes close to having the all around skill set that Draymond possesses.

Edited December 17, 2019 by TheNorthCydeRises

[AHF]

4 hours ago, Spud2nique said:

I agree with this minus the time that we would have built momentum and reps to where we are now. We only played a few games with Collins. I’m not saying it’ll be like coming from summer league but we lost some chemistry not having him with us that may show in the first couple weeks of his return.

Having said that, I firmly believe we are a 56% win team with him here. We have 55 game remaining. 31-24 the rest of the way would hit the 56% threshold and I’m pretty sure we can hit that mark. I wouldn’t be totally surprised if we didn’t given the momentum thing but it’s definitely still possible.

For the people that had us at 30 wins, that’s a 36% win clip so for the remaining 55, in order for them to be correct the Hawks would have to go 20-35. Unless we are tanking on purpose at this point, there is no way we go 20-35 the rest of the way. I am willing to put my avatar on the line against would be bettors!!!

 

I hope my season prediction is wrong because our young guys come around more quickly than expected and we blow it out of the water.  I figured on us being worse the first part of the season and better for the second half even if we were healthy. 

As for a bet, how about a 1 month avatar bet on whether we are a winning team the rest of the season - you win if we have a winning record the rest of the way, we push if it is 27-28 (gives a grace spot for the near .500 losing record), and  I win if we get 26 or fewer wins.  Then I can happily wear a Spud avatar for a month while feeling good about my Hawks' performance over the last 55 games.

@Spud2nique

 

[Spud2nique]

6 minutes ago, AHF said:

I hope my season prediction is wrong because our young guys come around more quickly than expected and we blow it out of the water.  I figured on us being worse the first part of the season and better for the second half even if we were healthy. 

As for a bet, how about a 1 month avatar bet on whether we are a winning team the rest of the season - you win if we have a winning record the rest of the way, we push if it is 27-28 (gives a grace spot for the near .500 losing record), and  I win if we get 26 or fewer wins.  Then I can happily wear a Spud avatar for a month while feeling good about my Hawks' performance over the last 55 games.

@Spud2nique

 

You are seriously tickling my gambling bone here but I honestly think the odds stack against me heavily if we drop the next few games and get into non recovery mode. Then we become sellers (which we already are most likely) and go into tank mode. We definitely have the talent to do it. Tough one, the Hawk homer in me wants to do it badly.  

Hold on let me count!