Guessing Game

[MarylandHawk]

Let’s play. What direction do you think Schlenk goes to get his 15 man roster to start the season?  Does he accelerate and go into championship mode? Does he stay the course with the core? Does stay prudent and keep the team in good financial health?

Closest person to get the approach right and the 15 people on the roster day 1 of the season wins. Guess right before the draft you get extra points. 
Remember this is guessing what Schlenk WILL do not what we think he should do  

I will go first. 
I think he stays the course with the core and shore up the edges with good veterans contracts. 

Trae, McConnell, Cooper

Bogi, Reddish, Mays

Dre, Huerter, Tucker 

JBap, Gallo, Knight

Clint, OO17, McGee

[Diesel]

There are too many variables to guess.  We have a lot of capital and at the same time, we are really good.   I think it starts with him having a discussion with his new head coach. 

[sturt]

Schlenk has told us that he's going to get a new #2 PG.

 

Beyond that, of course, we have new reason to suspect a legit vet 5th big is going to be pursued to get Double O's minutes for at least half the season.

 

Beyond that, there has been a rumor that Gallo can be had, with MIN being ID'd as one suitor (... and while I was an early skeptic on that point, I've received new intel that leads me to believe I shouldn't be dismissive.)

 

Beyond that, a study of the 2021-22 and 2022-23 payrolls just knowing what we know, it screams that these next two seasons are our prime window to win a title.

 

Beyond that, the General projects to have something close to $4.5m in cap space to secure some asset... $6.5m if he trades out of the first round (opening up the cap hold)... $11.5 if that, plus Dunn surprises everyone and opts out... $13.5 in trade if in addition to trading out of the first round and separating from Dunn, he ships out Bruno.

Beyond that, the General projects to have $9.5m of MLE and 4.5 of Bi-Annual exceptions.

 

Beyond that, the Hawks seem to have brought in a heckuvalotta players for workouts who are iffy as far as being drafted at all... seemingly hinting that either Mays and/or Knight are added to the 15-man, or won't be in ATL for 21-22.

 

Any guess right now on a 15-man is complicated by the Gallo rumor. Can't have much confidence, as a result, in anything beyond the starting 5, Huerter, Cam and Double O being 8 of the 15.

So, I can't even begin to pretend to offer an intelligent guess at what will be. Only what I'd like to be.

 

My newest...

 

 

[Spud2nique]

2 hours ago, MarylandHawk said:

Tucker

Horton or PJ?

[MarylandHawk]

2 hours ago, Diesel said:

There are too many variables to guess.  We have a lot of capital and at the same time, we are really good.   I think it starts with him having a discussion with his new head coach. 

That is point. This is a fun exercise to see if we can get it right.  Give a shot a we will see who is the closest. 

4 minutes ago, Spud2nique said:

Horton or PJ?

PJ

[Spud2nique]

I’ll give it a shot.

 

15 man rotation:

 

Trae/TJ/Jaden Springer

Bogi/Huerter/Avery Bradley

Hunter/Cam/James Ennis

Collins/Gallo/Dieng

Capela/OO/Bruno

 

[gurpilo]

I think Schlenck mantains the core and tries to fill the gaps

Trae/TJ/Jaden Springer

Bogi/Huerter/Mays

Hunter/Cam/Bullock

Collins/Gallo/Knight/Greg Brown

Capela/OO/Dieng

 

 

[JayBirdHawk]

Trae/Patti Mills/#20

Bogi/Huerter/Mays

Hunter/Reddish/House (traded for Dunn/Bruno and a 2nd) - Hawks save some money and replace Snell

Collins/Gallo/Solo (gotta have a Vet)

Capela/RLopez/OO

2way - Knight, #48

Edited to Robin Lopez the not so good Lopez

 

[ATLHawks3]

1 hour ago, JayBirdHawk said:

Trae/Patti Mills/#20

Bogi/Huerter/Mays

Hunter/Reddish/House (traded for Dunn/Bruno and a 2nd) - Hawks save some money and replace Snell

Collins/Gallo/Solo (gotta have a Vet)

Capela/BLopez/OO

2way - Knight, #48

 

Bucks aren't going to trade Brook Lopez unless they're blown away in a trade.

[NBASupes]

If I had to guess anything, I'll say getting a cheap vet center and addressing the backup PG positions are labeled important. I know JC situation is labeled urgent. As for the draft, it's hard to say. Hawks could go in so many directions. This might be the first time we see the Hawks trade down. I could see a 20/Dunn for 24 to get rid of Dunn salary especially since the quality gap isn't significant moving down 4 spots for what we covet unless someone we think at 20 is there by mistake, then we obviously stay and take that said player. 

Edited July 26, 2021 by NBASupes

[macdaddy]

Seems like folks think a lot of these guys will be gone:

Lou, Snell, Solo, BG, Mays, Knight, Dunn, Bruno

 

[JayBirdHawk]

41 minutes ago, ATLHawks3 said:

Bucks aren't going to trade Brook Lopez unless they're blown away in a trade.

Lol, meant R Lopez.

[Guest]

Package Dunn, Bruno, and OKC's #1 in 2022 (lottery protected, so almost assuredly converts to two second rounders in 2024 and 2025) to OKC for their second round pick (#34) in 2021.  Throw in our second rounder this year if necessary (#48 via Miami).  This frees up approximately $7.5 million and gives us approximately $10 million to spend on free agents after allocating approximately $3 million for our two draft choices.

Use our #20 on Jaden Springer (future back-up point guard) and OKC's #34 on JT Thor (back-up power forward) Both players will likely spend most of next year in the GLeague.  

Wave or trade Goodwin.  Renounce rights to Snell.  

Resign Knight and Mays to two-way contracts.  Assign to GLeague for most of the year.

Sign TJ McConnell as vet back-up PG (three years/$25 million).

Resign Solomon Hill as vet back-up 3/4 (one year at $2 million).

We have now used all available cap space ($112 million).

Resign JC at (hopefully) $22 million per year (four-year contract, meaning we likely matched an offer).  We're now $10 million over the cap.  (We can actually sign him for up to $29 million per year without going into the luxury tax this year.  See below for final calculations).

Sign Lou Will as vet back-up #3 guard (two years at $8 million) using bi-annual exception.  (Now $14 million over the cap).

Sign Gorgui Dieng as vet back-up #3 center using portion of mid-level exception (how much of $10 million? $6 million per year for 3 years?).  We're now $20 million over the cap.

We now have 15 players under contract, plus two two-way contracts.  

We are under the luxury cap by $7 million.

Just my thoughts ... fire away! 

[MarylandHawk]

2 hours ago, JayBirdHawk said:

Trae/Patti Mills/#20

Bogi/Huerter/Mays

Hunter/Reddish/House (traded for Dunn/Bruno and a 2nd) - Hawks save some money and replace Snell

Collins/Gallo/Solo (gotta have a Vet)

Capela/RLopez/OO

2way - Knight, #48

Edited to Robin Lopez the not so good Lopez

 

Nice, you even have a trade in there. 

[ATLHawks3]

31 minutes ago, LongTimeFan said:

Package Dunn, Bruno, and OKC's #1 in 2022 (lottery protected, so almost assuredly converts to two second rounders in 2024 and 2025) to OKC for their second round pick (#34) in 2021.  Throw in our second rounder this year if necessary (#48 via Miami).  This frees up approximately $7.5 million and gives us approximately $10 million to spend on free agents after allocating approximately $3 million for our two draft choices.

Use our #20 on Jaden Springer (future back-up point guard) and OKC's #34 on JT Thor (back-up power forward) Both players will likely spend most of next year in the GLeague.  

Wave or trade Goodwin.  Renounce rights to Snell.  

Resign Knight and Mays to two-way contracts.  Assign to GLeague for most of the year.

Sign TJ McConnell as vet back-up PG (three years/$25 million).

Resign Solomon Hill as vet back-up 3/4 (one year at $2 million).

We have now used all available cap space ($112 million).

Resign JC at (hopefully) $22 million per year (four-year contract, meaning we likely matched an offer).  We're now $10 million over the cap.  (We can actually sign him for up to $29 million per year without going into the luxury tax this year.  See below for final calculations).

Sign Lou Will as vet back-up #3 guard (two years at $8 million) using bi-annual exception.  (Now $14 million over the cap).

Sign Gorgui Dieng as vet back-up #3 center using portion of mid-level exception (how much of $10 million? $6 million per year for 3 years?).  We're now $20 million over the cap.

We now have 15 players under contract, plus two two-way contracts.  

We are under the luxury cap by $7 million.

Just my thoughts ... fire away! 

Not a bad off-season, but I doubt you get JC at $22 million per. More likely to be in the 25-28 range. Also, Goodwin is a free agent so there's no need to waive him. Other than that, you did pretty well.

[Guest]

2 minutes ago, ATLHawks3 said:

Not a bad off-season, but I doubt you get JC at $22 million per. More likely to be in the 25-28 range. Also, Goodwin is a free agent so there's no need to waive him. Other than that, you did pretty well.

I agree on your likely price for JC.  And I should have said "renounce" not "waive" Goodwin.

Thanks for your thoughts.  

[Spud2nique]

3 hours ago, JayBirdHawk said:

RLopez

My guy 

3 hours ago, JayBirdHawk said:

Edited to Robin Lopez the not so good Lopez

He’s the better Lopez now! 

[Spud2nique]

1 hour ago, NBASupes said:

This might be the first time we see the Hawks trade down

Agreed. 

[ATLHawks3]

1 hour ago, NBASupes said:

If I had to guess anything, I'll say getting a cheap vet center and addressing the backup PG positions are labeled important. I know JC situation is labeled urgent. As for the draft, it's hard to say. Hawks could go in so many directions. This might be the first time we see the Hawks trade down. I could see a 20/Dunn for 24 to get rid of Dunn salary especially since the quality gap isn't significant moving down 4 spots for what we covet unless someone we think at 20 is there by mistake, then we obviously stay and take that said player. 

Makes sense, especially if Dunn opts in before the draft. If he opts out, you might as well stay at 20.

[Spud2nique]

1 hour ago, LongTimeFan said:

Just my thoughts ... fire away!