Trade Deadline 2023: February 9th.

[sturt]

If you make a trade at this point, I'm leaning toward either of two options, depending on how this team performs these next 6 games before the clock runs out on the deadline.

If we see them perform well, you don't mess with the rotation. But if there's a trade that makes some sense for this season that gives you some insurance and an upgrade toward the end of the bench, go for it.

If we don't... it could be indicative that Trae Young is an excellent player, but he's never going to be sufficiently excellent to carry a team, and you really ought to give some thought to making a splash trade for some other player who it is reasonable to believe could carry a team. Unpopular, probably... but tell me why that's wrong.

[macdaddy]

16 hours ago, terrell said:

JC for Big Val(14.7mill for 2 yrs) and Dyson Daniels(5.5 mill for 4 yrs) works on trade machine.. lol

Backup Center with size fixed.....

Another bigger wing who we liked in the draft fixed...

Then Trade Bogi and CC for Ayton/Crowder 

Trae/DJ/Dre/OO/Ayton

DJ/AJ/Daniels/JJ/Val

AH/Crowder

 

 

 

 

So out JC/CC/Bogi, in Crowder, Daniels, Jonas, Ayton

I don't think that's a net positive.  Crowder's days of being an effective starter in this league are numbered or maybe over.  So we have a huge whole at PF.  

Seems like we'd just do the trade with the suns if they'd do it and hang onto JC.  I'll admit i don't know what Daniels ceiling is though. 

[macdaddy]

Can Otto Porter give us anything as a backup 3?  He's got a player option for next year.  I'm sure the Raps would gladly take Justin to save the 6m owed porter next year.    That might be bad for us but he's got size and can still shoot. 

[JayBirdHawk]

2 minutes ago, macdaddy said:

Can Otto Porter give us anything as a backup 3?  He's got a player option for next year.  I'm sure the Raps would gladly take Justin to save the 6m owed porter next year.    That might be bad for us but he's got size and can still shoot. 

No he can't....

Otto Porter Jr. would miss the remainder of the 2022-23 season after undergoing surgery to repair the foot injury that's held him out of action since Nov. 14.

[macdaddy]

3 minutes ago, JayBirdHawk said:

No he can't....

Otto Porter Jr. would miss the remainder of the 2022-23 season after undergoing surgery to repair the foot injury that's held him out of action since Nov. 14.

ah crud. 

 

[JayBirdHawk]

2 weeks to go.................

[JayBirdHawk]

 

Nothing insightful.........

 

Do you think John Collins will stay? 

No. Even though Collins has played well and the team has driven down his trade value, I'm confident this is the year they trade him. The front office wants to get off his contract.

 

Any news on a Bogdan Bogdanovic trade, considering his contractual situation? 

So Bogdanovic is on the books for one more season at $18 million. Atlanta will look to move him or Capela this summer to free up cap space for Onyeka Okongwu's upcoming rookie-scale contract extension.

[sturt]

7 hours ago, macdaddy said:

ah crud. 

 

You get credit, mac, for at least thinking hard.

Then again, Jay gets more credit for doing some research.

 

But honestly, can't see us being able to dislodge JDay from the roster short of the front office becoming willing to part with draft picks to make it happen... my guess is there's a 10% chance of that... or... so much better... some two teams wanting to swing a deal for which a $6.2m salary is necessary, and they come a-knockin on the front office's proverbial door, and wanting to swing it so bad that we don't even have to give up anything... and my guess, for what anyone should care, is there'a a <1% chance of that.

[sturt]

4 hours ago, JayBirdHawk said:

 

Nothing insightful.........

 

Do you think John Collins will stay? 

No. Even though Collins has played well and the team has driven down his trade value, I'm confident this is the year they trade him. The front office wants to get off his contract.

 

Any news on a Bogdan Bogdanovic trade, considering his contractual situation? 

So Bogdanovic is on the books for one more season at $18 million. Atlanta will look to move him or Capela this summer to free up cap space for Onyeka Okongwu's upcoming rookie-scale contract extension.

Pat Benson is a nice guy, I'm sure, but he also seems to want people to greatly value his opinion... it's good for the occupation he's chosen, of course... but unfortunately for him, I don't see that happening. If you happen to lurk or post here, Pat, sorry.

[sturt]

18 hours ago, sturt said:

If we don't... it could be indicative that Trae Young is an excellent player, but he's never going to be sufficiently excellent to carry a team, and you really ought to give some thought to making a splash trade for some other player who it is reasonable to believe could carry a team. Unpopular, probably... but tell me why that's wrong.

18 hours later, I'm left to think that it's more popular than I'd been inclined to think.

 

 

... your thoughts, Rayford?

[Spud2nique]

1 hour ago, sturt said:

Pat Benson is a nice guy,

Date him.

[JayBirdHawk]

1 hour ago, sturt said:

You get credit, mac, for at least thinking hard.

Then again, Jay gets more credit for doing some research.

 

But honestly, can't see us being able to dislodge JDay from the roster short of the front office becoming willing to part with draft picks to make it happen... my guess is there's a 10% chance of that... or... so much better... some two teams wanting to swing a deal for which a $6.2m salary is necessary, and they come a-knockin on the front office's proverbial door, and wanting to swing it so bad that we don't even have to give up anything... and my guess, for what anyone should care, is there'a a <1% chance of that.

There are options even if we aren't getting a player back.  It just clears his salary. With Hunter and Bogi out he didn't see the floor.

1. JHol and 2nd as a salary dump to a team with capspace (Pacers or Spurs)

2. JHol to a team that has a TPE that is looking for a wing - Teams with large enough TPE's Portland/Denver/LAC (they send us back a fake 2nd and Hawks get a $6.2 mil TPE)

Then the usuals for players:

3. Then we have options to trade for a player with a non-expiring similar contract.

4. Ideally - JHol and a 2nd(s) for a useful player (similar to the Rondo/Lou trade) [Jalen McDaniels seems to be on the outs in Charlotte]

 

 

[sturt]

15 minutes ago, JayBirdHawk said:

1. JHol and 2nd as a salary dump to a team with capspace (Pacers or Spurs).................. Ideally - JHol and a 2nd(s) for a useful player

  Um. Yep. 

1 hour ago, sturt said:

short of the front office becoming willing to part with draft picks to make it happen

And/but I'm not so certain that a single 2nd gets that done, in view of the fact that those teams only have so many roster slots for that kind of thing, and that there's every possibility that a dozen other teams have called to give them at least as equally appealing alternatives.

 

==================================================================

 

16 minutes ago, JayBirdHawk said:

2. JHol to a team that has a TPE that is looking for a wing

Um. Didn't you just say......

19 minutes ago, JayBirdHawk said:

With Hunter and Bogi out he didn't see the floor.

But other teams' decision-makers are too stupid to know better?

Yeah. No. Not buying that. That's not even as realistic as my <1% option I mentioned, imo.

=================================================================

 

22 minutes ago, JayBirdHawk said:

Then we have options to trade for a player with a non-expiring similar contract.

But do we?

Two points.

First and weaker of the two... I had this go-round weeks ago with Diesel... sounds nice, love the notion, but give me a list of players that fit the requirements... (a) can't add salary to this year's ATL payroll, (b) has to be clear reason the other team is highly motivated to move the player (e.g., slicing ~$6m off next year's payroll, or the player is a problem, or the player is taking up a roster slot they desperately want to give to someone else), and (c) the other team has to have reason to feel they're getting an approximately equivalent VORP or WS/48 for what they're giving up.

Diesel's idea was Khem Birch. Wonderful if you could get it, sure. But does he meet "a"? No. Probable deal breaker. Does "b" apply? No. Probable deal breaker. Does "c" apply? Heavens to Betsy, nooooooooooooooo. Probable deal breaker. So, nah.

Who else ya got? Because my non-comprehensive but somewhat-considerable research found zero.

 

Second, and stronger of the two. Didn't we just agree that we're already up against it for 2023-24 payroll? But we're going to add a commitment for a $6m salary anyhow becauuuuuuuuuussse... a 3rd unit player is just so important?

Yeah. No.

=====================================================================

 

How bout we stop kidding ourselves?

What I said above is accurate.

Is it possible, yes, but it's not that likely that our FO is going to be interested to give up more draft picks to move a player short of some incredibly fortunate circumstances... again, I have this dream where Eric Gordon gets bought out and then wants to play with Trae if only Ressler will allow a multi-year contract.

The ideal? That's ideal but hardly realistic. Slightly more realistic, but yes, somewhat less ideal is the other option I mentioned... that two teams need a 3rd trading partner to get a deal done, and a $6m contract is precisely what they want... and it costs us nothing.

[JayBirdHawk]

50 minutes ago, sturt said:

But other teams' decision-makers are too stupid to know better?

Yeah. No. Not buying that. That's not even as realistic as my <1% option I mentioned, imo.

It's the NBA, GMs do strange stuff.
Besides, how often are vet players out of rotations traded to new teams and get playing time. quite often.
Here's a thought: Bucks want Crowder, so they are looking for a wing, but cost might be too high.
Serge is out of rotation and Bucks are looking to move him. Bucks call up Hawks for JHol to join his brother. If you compare Crowder/JHol stats from last season - very close. Crowder has not played in any games this year, JHol 27 games.

[sturt]

9 minutes ago, JayBirdHawk said:

Here's a thought: Bucks want Crowder, so they are looking for a wing, but cost might be too high.
Serge is out of rotation and Bucks are looking to move him. Bucks call up Hawks for JHol to join his brother. If you compare Crowder/JHol stats from last season - very close. Crowder has not played in any games this year, JHol 27 games.

I call your and raise you a ...

 

3 hours ago, sturt said:

or... so much better... some two teams wanting to swing a deal for which a $6.2m salary is necessary, and they come a-knockin on the front office's proverbial door, and wanting to swing it so bad that we don't even have to give up anything

 

It's sometimes amazing to me that you think you're disagreeing with me, but it turns out, it's just muscle memory on your part...

 

But to be clear, what you've suggested in this trade concept wouldn't even be a case where the Suns would be dealing for JDay because they would have a role for him they want him to fill... and that doesn't match up with your suggestion that he'd be going to a team "looking for a wing"... ie, using your original assertion to which I was responding when I said "But other teams' decision-makers are too stupid to know better?"

[JayBirdHawk]

32 minutes ago, sturt said:

the Suns would be dealing for JDay because they would have a role for him they want him to fill... and that doesn't match up with your suggestion that he'd be going to a team "looking for a wing"... ie, using your original assertion to which I was responding when I said "But other teams' decision-makers are too stupid to know better?"

It's a JHol trade to the Bucks for Ibaka. Bucks pass on Crowder.

[sturt]

11 minutes ago, JayBirdHawk said:

It's a JHol trade to the Bucks for Ibaka. Bucks pass on Crowder.

Oh. Okay.

Really? Yikes.

So, maybe you got this already, but just to be clear, I thought you were envisioning a three-team where Bucks use JDay to get Crowder, sending us Ibaka. That could conceivably make some sense.

 

But you think there's some persuasive argument for the two getting swapped straight-up?

Oh c'mon.

No you don't.

MIL wants a player whose WS/48 is almost .000?

MIL wants that player so badly, they're going to pay more tax to get him?

 

Jay. You're more reasonable than this. Again, my refrain is, I don't predict what will happen, I only argue what is reasonable to happen, given what we know and when we know it.

Perhaps we don't yet know, nor Fields/Threezus that Ibaka is about to have it revealed to have some embarrassing news.

That's about the only way I, from where I sit at the moment I'm sitting here, see that dream of yours as reasonable.

[sturt]

[Spud2nique]

1 hour ago, JayBirdHawk said:

JHol to join his brother. I

At this point he’s prolly like can I go somewhere without a brother…  

[sturt]

I'm left to think this has probably already been cited somewhere around here, but just in case... yeah... the general sentiment might have some legs... eventually...

But I'm just saying... (repeating myself, I know...) if one is really that persuaded that Trae isn't going to achieve a level of performance capable of carrying a team, then you listen to offers, and maybe even invite some, if there are teams with guys you are persuaded are capable of carrying a team.