Official Playoff Game Thread: Celtics at Hawks -- GAME 3

[JayBirdHawk]

4 minutes ago, NBASupes said:

Fans are way too emotional.

...really, tell me more 

[NBASupes]

Just now, JayBirdHawk said:

...really, tell me more 

Go to Hawks Reddit or even here, you will see a lot of emotional rubbish.

[JayBirdHawk]

1 minute ago, NBASupes said:

Go to Hawks Reddit or even here, you will see a lot of emotional rubbish.

Nah...I see enough of it here sometimes. Don't need that sesspool.

[AHF]

9 minutes ago, kg01 said:

Eh, I'll live with Smart taking 3s. 

Me too.  I'll definitely live with that.  He has shot under 34% for 3 years running.  That is much better than having other Celtics taking that shot and Smart has never been shy about shooting so the more we can encourage that the better.  (He averages almost 6 3PTA per 36 and shoots 32% on them for his career.)  If he gets hot then so be it.

[NBASupes]

Not enough credit is going to Hunter for his overall defense on Brown and Tatum. They are damn near asking for a screen every single time against him. If you read this board and some others, you will hear that he sucked on both ends from posters who have no clue what they are talking about. 

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/nba-player-ratings/

Also, not enough credit goes to Murray and Bogi. Via the RAPTOR, they are having the two best series of both Celtics and Hawks. Murray in particular has been an issue for Boston. Trae has a massive improvement game on game 3 and seen hid RAPTOR jump as did OO to a degree. This has been a tough series for both players on both ends. Especially OO who has struggled with Boston screen heavy attack in space. It's tough and takes time to adjust, OO might be having the most issues with it of all of our bigs. 

I wanted Boston for a reason. I felt that we could really beat them especially if Brown was hurt, well he's not but he hasn't been too effective this series. 

Edited April 22, 2023 by NBASupes

[NBASupes]

RAPTOR reports

Horford leads all Celtics with a 0.5 WAR

Brogdon leads all Celtics 5.5 offensive RAPTOR. Smart is 2nd at 4.2

Brown and Williams are struggling offensively via the RAPTOR, -3.9 and -3.6 for Williams

Brown defense has been highly valued by the RAPTOR at 6.0 and Horford is 5.5

Hawks 

Murray and Bogi leads all players with a 0.7 WAR. Bogi has a 0.6 WAR

Bogi leads all players with a 8.5 offensive RAPTOR. Murray has a 6.7

Offensively, our bigs are struggling on offense against Boston. JC has a -5.3 and has a -2.5. 

Defensively, our bigs have been lethal. JC with a 7.5 and Clint with a 4.4

Defensively, OO has had a disaster class with a -9.8 and Bey with a typical -6.2. OO has really struggled with the screens actions in space. He needs a lot of work

For a team that lost two games by 11 and won one by 8. These aren't exactly bad numbers and actually give hope for game 4 and the rest of the series. 

[NBASupes]

Murray has been amazing this series. 

[NBASupes]

Trae and OO has had a rough series but game 3 was a step in the right direction, especially for Trae. OO still has some work to do especially in terms of defensive responses and communication in space. 

[NBASupes]

Hunter has been probably the most crushed guy on social media and after watching the games multi times, I can say those people have low BBIQ. He's been critical for us and without him, this series would be 10x worse for us and Boston would clearly sweep us. Offense isn't everything. Defense is more important for certain positions.

[NBASupes]

I actually felt like JC is having a better series than people think. It's just that, he's been a poor fit offensively all year since Murray's arrival and a team that eats up spacing as well as Boston does was always going to be a nightmare series for JC without Kevin covering up space. He's actually been solid for a big on the screens in space. By far our best big in space defensively this series. That said, the spacing on offense is so bad when he's on the court.

Man... idk... At the end of the day, Capela hasn't been much better but he forces Boston to double Team him on offensive rebounds which at least prevent leakouts in transition which gives Atlanta time to setup their defense. Tough because neither Clint or JC have been effective offensively this series but Hunter has struggled too especially with wide open 3s. It's been a rough go for the starters from an offensive perspective. 

Defensively, both have played well in my opinion.

Edited April 22, 2023 by NBASupes

[TheNorthCydeRises]

9 hours ago, hawkman said:

They get run out of the arena. If the Hawks execute their offense (hit open shots and limit turnovers) while Boston is bricking threes, Boston will basically shoot themselves out of the game because shooting the three is a staple of their offense. 

 

People didn't notice because it's normally 1 person with 40% of the turnovers, but the Hawks had 18 of them tonight.  Trae had 4, but none after the 9 minute mark in the 3rd quarter.

[TheNorthCydeRises]

8 hours ago, Plainview1981 said:

The backcourt deserves credit for finally having an impact full performance. They will have to play like this to win because this Collins/Cap front court has peaked. It can't last into next season.

At this point, I don't think Collins heart is in it. Maybe he will somewhat climb back up the ladder Abit once he is traded.

Perhaps the Hawks can get one more game.... I can't see them taking it to 7, but we will see.

 

 

 

We'll take what we can get from you, as a positive post.

 

[NBASupes]

Bogi been special this series. He's been a game changer for us and his defense hasn't been that bad. Almost defending like it's 2021 playoffs. 

Bey struggled in Boston on both ends but yesterday, he was back to Beywatch and key for all spacing for us. His defense has been terrible. Worse than Trae this series. He makes way too many mistakes. That said, he has had some good defensive possessions at key moments which is telling. I want to see Beywatch in game 4. 

[JayBirdHawk]

 

 

[TheNorthCydeRises]

1 hour ago, NBASupes said:

That takes a lot of time when you can just watch the game again, stop and rewind to make sure you know what was the ask from that assignment. Even that takes scheme understanding. 

I really like your growth more than anything. We may differ in our answers but I always have respect for where you are coming from and the time you put in 

 

LOL @ my growth.  I've been doing this.

But as I just posted with Plainview.  I'll take this as a compliment.

 

[NBASupes]

13 minutes ago, TheNorthCydeRises said:

 

People didn't notice because it's normally 1 person with 40% of the turnovers, but the Hawks had 18 of them tonight.  Trae had 4, but none after the 9 minute mark in the 3rd quarter.

Boston offense is build on screens, flairs, ball movement and easy isolations against weak defenders. If you force them to iso against Murray, Hunter, JC, Capela, and OO. It won't end well for them as they aren't great self creators. They are really good at actions and that's what makes them so tough plus they can shoot it 1/5 outside of Williams. Their size and athleticism makes their screens so effective. They aren't the most laterally quick team. Miami is extremely quick laterally. They are on the slower end.

Edited April 22, 2023 by NBASupes

[AHF]

26 minutes ago, NBASupes said:

RAPTOR reports

Horford leads all Celtics with a 0.5 WAR

Brogdon leads all Celtics 5.5 offensive RAPTOR. Smart is 2nd at 4.2

Brown and Williams are struggling offensively via the RAPTOR, -3.9 and -3.6 for Williams

Brown defense has been highly valued by the RAPTOR at 6.0 and Horford is 5.5

Hawks 

Murray and Bogi leads all players with a 0.7 WAR. Bogi has a 0.6 WAR

Bogi leads all players with a 8.5 offensive RAPTOR. Murray has a 6.7

Offensively, our bigs are struggling on offense against Boston. JC has a -5.3 and has a -2.5. 

Defensively, our bigs have been lethal. JC with a 7.5 and Clint with a 4.4

Defensively, OO has had a disaster class with a -9.8 and Bey with a typical -6.2. OO has really struggled with the screens actions in space. He needs a lot of work

For a team that lost two games by 11 and won one by 8. These aren't exactly bad numbers and actually give hope for game 4 and the rest of the series. 

Good stuff.  I will qualify the metrics by saying a 3 game set for any metric is going to absolutely be a small sample size. 

I was a bit surprised to see you quoting defensive metrics.  Do you think DefensiveRAPTOR is a useful stat?  I thought we had a whole discussion about this where you couldn't find any metrics that were useful in assessing someone's impact on defense.  (Useful = helps you understand not that it is a be-all, end-all number that tells the story without more context.)

[TheNorthCydeRises]

24 minutes ago, NBASupes said:

RAPTOR reports

Horford leads all Celtics with a 0.5 WAR

Brogdon leads all Celtics 5.5 offensive RAPTOR. Smart is 2nd at 4.2

Brown and Williams are struggling offensively via the RAPTOR, -3.9 and -3.6 for Williams

Brown defense has been highly valued by the RAPTOR at 6.0 and Horford is 5.5

Hawks 

Murray and Bogi leads all players with a 0.7 WAR. Bogi has a 0.6 WAR

Bogi leads all players with a 8.5 offensive RAPTOR. Murray has a 6.7

Offensively, our bigs are struggling on offense against Boston. JC has a -5.3 and has a -2.5. 

Defensively, our bigs have been lethal. JC with a 7.5 and Clint with a 4.4

Defensively, OO has had a disaster class with a -9.8 and Bey with a typical -6.2. OO has really struggled with the screens actions in space. He needs a lot of work

For a team that lost two games by 11 and won one by 8. These aren't exactly bad numbers and actually give hope for game 4 and the rest of the series. 

 

Glad you have embraced RAPTOR for player evaluation in the postseason.  I think they reflect what is happening on the court. 

[NBASupes]

Just now, AHF said:

I have a hard time using a 3 game set for any metric to draw meaningful results as to a player's overall value.  Do you think DefensiveRAPTOR is a useful stat?  I thought we had a whole discussion about this where you couldn't find any metrics that were useful.

As I've prevjously stated.  There is no good defensive metric. As there is too much to account for on a defensive possession. But this one is one of the better ones that are available. I actually find it to be more useful in smaller samples for defense than for offense. Do we really think Trae is the 3rd worse offensive player this series? 

[AHF]

2 minutes ago, NBASupes said:

As I've prevjously stated.  There is no good defensive metric. As there is too much to account for on a defensive possession. But this one is one of the better ones that are available. I actually find it to be more useful in smaller samples for defense than for offense. Do we really think Trae is the 3rd worse offensive player this series? 

So we agree that DefensiveRAPTOR is meaningful (and obviously the larger the data set the more useful)?