Official Playoff Game Thread: Celtics at Hawks -- GAME 3

[NBASupes]

What intrigued me is how bad Dre and JC are having via box score offensively. I think this matches what the @terrell and @Nash of the world are seeing. JC -4.3 and Dre -3.8 is really bad but Trae's 1.7 matches that his production is accounted for. 

Where you see Dre's value and JC negative is on/off RAPTOR. Dre is a team high +14.7 and JC is 2nd lowest to Trae at -7.8. This matches my eye test where I didn't think Dre was making any bad decisions offensively and while some of his offensive turnovers were pathetic, they didn't exactly lead to anything negative. He's been the best decision maker on or off the ball for the Hawks on offense and this matches what I see which is why I harp that Dre haters have low BBIQ. Whereas Trae offensive on or off been a -16.7 which also matches my eye test, his decision making before game 3 was disaster class.

I can say, this matches my eye test @AHF

Edited April 22, 2023 by NBASupes

[NBASupes]

11 minutes ago, AHF said:

So we agree that DefensiveRAPTOR is meaningful (and obviously the larger the data set the more useful)?

I disagree. I think it's more useful in a shorter data points. I actually would prefer if we could use it based on series and time frame. In the regular season, there is a noise. In the playoffs, no noise. Playing key matchups. Offensively, it's better in the RS with a large sample size but even with a small sample size, it's fairly accurate. For this series at least.

[NBASupes]

Dre right now is being used like Royce O'Neale. This is miles better than how he was used under Nate. He was a spot up guy under Nate. He's highly involved in the actions. That's why he's valuable to Quins offense even if the ball watchers thinks he sucks.

Edited April 22, 2023 by NBASupes

[NBASupes]

Horford is another player like Dre with a low box score. -2.4. Only Williams and Brown is lower with a -3.0 and -2.7. 

-2.4 is still much better than Dre's abysmal -3.8 which could be a backbreaker if he doesn't step it up. That said, Horford like Hunter has been a menace for the Celtics as his on/off is a +12.9. This is a massive deal and of course, we are still trying to figure out how to deal with Horford even at 36 years old. 

Al's been the 11th most impactful player in these playoffs VIA WAR.

Murray's been the 6th most impactful and Bogi been 7th. That's pretty damn impressive via the WAR. 

 

[TheNorthCydeRises]

31 minutes ago, NBASupes said:

What intrigued me is how bad Dre and JC are having via box score offensively. I think this matches what the @terrell and @Nash of the world are seeing. JC -4.3 and Dre -3.8 is really bad but Trae's 1.7 matches that his production is accounted for. 

Where you see Dre's value and JC negative is on/off RAPTOR. Dre is a team high +14.7 and JC is 2nd lowest to Trae at -7.8. This matches my eye test where I didn't think Dre was making any bad decisions offensively and while some of his offensive turnovers were pathetic, they didn't exactly lead to anything negative. He's been the best decision maker on or off the ball for the Hawks on offense and this matches what I see which is why I harp that Dre haters have low BBIQ. Whereas Trae offensive on or off been a -16.7 which also matches my eye test, his decision making before game 3 was disaster class.

I can say, this matches my eye test @AHF

 

That's easy to explain.  Probably better by using this:

Game 1

 

Game 2

 

Trae's minutes with the starters have been bad.  Not so bad with the starters.

Dre's stints, for the most part, have been good, even in the losses.  And those stints mainly come with our main starters.

[NBASupes]

4 minutes ago, TheNorthCydeRises said:

 

That's easy to explain.  Probably better by using this:

Game 1

 

Game 2

 

Trae's minutes with the starters have been bad.  Not so bad with the starters.

Dre's stints, for the most part, have been good, even in the losses.  And those stints mainly come with our main starters.

Dre been key in those minutes. Great decision making. I am seeing few mistakes. On ball mistakes are a tad up but off ball, especially in game 3, are far down. Offensively, he's been masterful in the Royce O'Neale role. I keep telling you, we are running Utah's offense. This isn't even what we were doing for most of the regular season. I think Dre is having a hell of a series outside of scoring and shooting where it's been a really really rough. 

Edited April 22, 2023 by NBASupes

[NBASupes]

When it comes to this series, I think my frustration with this board and especially the trolls and Reddit board is my eval on Hunter and Horford in this series is miles apart and it's the BBIQ part that just shows again. This is where when I talk about scheme versatility and complex parts of the game where I lose you guys and you think you are right but you aren't close and I get angry about it. 

I think Horford is f***ing us up this series. You guys think he's just shooting 3s and setting moving screens, otherwise. He's not doing anything. 

You guys think Dre is struggling offensively, I think he's having the most impact offensively this series since he's been in Atlanta. 

[NBASupes]

Dre literally got Tatum and Brown in hell. 

Horford got us using Capela on Smart. 

Idk what else to say 

[NBASupes]

Murray has been key too on Brown. Brown scared to dribble when Murray is on him and asking for screens like he's scared. 

[terrell]

2 hours ago, TheNorthCydeRises said:

 

Fans just get too emotional sometimes.  Quin isn't stupid.  He knows that he has a future Hall of Fame PG right now.  And we can get Dejounte playing at a high level with Trae, all we have to do is upgrade the front court, and we'll be set.

Does "frontcourt" include SF?

[terrell]

1 hour ago, NBASupes said:

I actually felt like JC is having a better series than people think. It's just that, he's been a poor fit offensively all year since Murray's arrival and a team that eats up spacing as well as Boston does was always going to be a nightmare series for JC without Kevin covering up space. He's actually been solid for a big on the screens in space. By far our best big in space defensively this series. That said, the spacing on offense is so bad when he's on the court.

Man... idk... At the end of the day, Capela hasn't been much better but he forces Boston to double Team him on offensive rebounds which at least prevent leakouts in transition which gives Atlanta time to setup their defense. Tough because neither Clint or JC have been effective offensively this series but Hunter has struggled too especially with wide open 3s. It's been a rough go for the starters from an offensive perspective. 

Defensively, both have played well in my opinion.

Dre is 19 for his last 75 (25.3%) from 3 with alot of them being WIDE open....

The really funny thing is that this dates back almost exactly to when JC started making 3s again. Over the exact same time frame, JC is a respectable 31 for 87 (35.6%) from 3

Maybe we should clone Korver enough times that one clone can hang out with each subpar shooter.. lol

Edited April 22, 2023 by terrell

[NBASupes]

How bad and how good are the Hawks this series

Box Score raptor 

Good

1. Ant with 13.4

2. Kawhi with 11.1

3. D. Mitchell with 10.4 

Hawks 

14. Murray 

15. Bogi

43. Trae

The ugly

100. Mobley -8.2

99. Cedi -8.1

98. Randle -8.0

Hawks

89. JC

86. Dre

73. Capela

Defense 

The good

1. M. Robinson +10.4

2. Zubac +10.2

3. NAW +9.0

Hawks

10. Bogi

11. Capela

17. JC

The ugly

100. Portis -9.0

99. Gabe V. -8.8

98. Batum -8.7

hawks

94. OO

82. Trae

71. Bey

Total

1. Booker 14.2

2. Jamal Murray 13.1

3. Bogi 12.2

Hawks 

Bogi been mentioned

14. Murray

35. Capela

The ugly

100. Batum -12.9

99. Damn KAT -8.7

98. E. Gordon -8.2

Hawks

96. OO

91. Damn Dre 

75. Bey

On/Off RAPTOR 

The good

1. Brunson 24.9

2. Ant 24.6

3. Caleb Martin 23.8

Steph and D. Mitch tied for 4th

Hawks

12. Dre

18. Bogi

31. Bey

The ugly

100. O'Neale -23.3

99. Lebron -17.8

98. Sabonis -17.5

Hawks 

96. Damn Trae 

83. JC

73. Clint

Defense

1. Quickley 

2. AD

3. Steph

Hawks

5. JC

21. Dre

26. Murray

The ugly

100. Durant 

99. Butler

98. Harden

Hawks

97. Bey

96. OO

63. Bogi

Total on/off

1. C. Martin

2. Steph 

3. AD

Hawks

7. Dre

24. JC

30. Murray

The ugly

100. LeBron

99. Sabonis

98. Butler

Hawks 

93. Trae

87. OO

86. Bey

I share the overall RAPTOR plus WAR later. 

[NBASupes]

13 minutes ago, terrell said:

Dre is 19 for his last 75 (25.3%) from 3 with alot of them being WIDE open....

The really funny thing is that this dates back almost exactly to when JC started making 3s again. Over the exact same time frame, JC is a respectable 31 for 87 (35.6%) from 3

Maybe we should clone Korver enough times that one clone can hang out with each subpar shooter.. lol

Okay... This means exactly what other than he's in a major 3pt shooting slump which is obvious just from watching the game. At the end of the day, you want him to take wide open 3s. It's just that simple. Especially if putting the ball on the deck doesn't have the same effect for Dre as it may have for someone like JJ. This is like the JC discussion, if the other numbers look the same as usual, it's not as big of a deal. Now if his numbers across the board were bad, we would be in trouble. My guess is the actions we have him doing on both ends takes a lot of energy and he needs more work to adjust to the workload change. With Nate, he barely had offensive actions. Shit, at times he barely had defensive actions. 

Edited April 22, 2023 by NBASupes

[Spud2nique]

5 hours ago, Spud2nique said:

He’s not a troll he does a get a lil weird when you put the “caption this” stuff on cuz then he goes into full on ignoring you mode, using your pic and going about his own biz making titles for it.

But he means well. Don’t put the kibosh on Diesel, you’re better than that!

@NBASupes don’t put @Diesel on timeout, that’s like me putting you on ignore. I haven’t done it even though I’ve wanted to so many times. I still seem to find the good in you and you two are good posters. But it’s your call.

[Spud2nique]

3 hours ago, JayBirdHawk said:

You want Smart taking and making those early 3s, cause come the end of a game like you saw, he'll take 3s when he really shouldn't. 

Yup this. Build his confidence then watch him crumble when it counts.  When I talk Celts I just sound pure evil  

[NBASupes]

I've been watching every game for the last two decades or at least most games in that time frame, many multiple times. 

When I say this is the best Dre I've seen offensively, I mean that shit. Under Nate and LP. He never had very good on/off but once against the Knicks which was an assignment win for Dre v. Randle. Randle was shut down by Dre as well as R.J. He also never had a plus +/- offensive RAPTOR but in the same series and he was causing issues for the Knicks just do to the fact that Trae was murdering them and Trae was feeding open middys. He did have one game he had to take over offensively but we lost that game. Even then, his offense role wasn't much different than the Knicks Bullock which was stand in the corner and only make an offensive move if the ball comes to you. We didn't run shit for Dre. 

This playoffs and play in. He's been a nightmare for opponents. His movement and actions are f***ing shit up and taking guys out of natural rebounding positions making it easier for Capela, OO, JJ, and JC. His screens are making it easier for Murray. He's starting to use the Utah play often and it's making defenses scramble. This is why you see Dre's impact on the on/off sheet. Usually offensive on/off is not something Dre on ever. Because he mainly just stands in the corner not doing shit. But we are using him like O'Neale and it's making everyone life around him easier and he's doing it better than Royce ever did it. 

Edited April 22, 2023 by NBASupes

[Spud2nique]

Just now, NBASupes said:

I've been watching every game for the last two decades or at least most games in that time frame, many multiple times. 

I watched last 4. 

[dalamchops]

he might be doing other things well, but every time i see hunter put the ball on the floor i hold my breath and get ptsd of marvin losing his dribble.

[NBASupes]

2 minutes ago, dalamchops said:

he might be doing other things well, but every time i see hunter put the ball on the floor i hold my breath and get ptsd of marvin losing his dribble.

Lmaooo, that's a weakness of his. I really hope he realizing dribbling in traffic is bad for him as he also has tunnel vision which makes matters worse, especially against teams with hands as good as Boston.

[Spud2nique]

11 minutes ago, NBASupes said:

Royce

Royce wasn’t the 4th overall pick in his draft either though so, with that there are different expectations and cheaper ways to fill in gaps and build around Bey being the starter moving forward and into next season.

8 minutes ago, dalamchops said:

get ptsd of marvin losing his dribble.

Have you seen my thread ?