2023-24 Insider Information Thread

[JayBirdHawk]

10 minutes ago, NBASupes said:

Murray wanted Atlanta too so it would be two straight seasons.

....and then we trade him after 1 season. Right right right.

[JayBirdHawk]

35 minutes ago, REHawksFan said:

I get that there's risk either way.  I'm just saying that with the new CBA, you HAVE to stay away from that 2nd apron because of all the restrictions they put on teams that go over it. 

First, it was we can't go past the LT....now it's the 2nd Apron. We will forever operate as sisters of the poor, and this is not me saying to do this deal or not, but at some point we have to get past this mental block regarding team salary and always using it as a crutch.

The strictest of the 2nd Apron rules kick in where a team is above the 2nd Apron for 3 consecutive years (if what I read is correct).

[KB21]

Quick figuring here:.  Over the past three years, Trae Young has been worth around 8.8 WAR a season.  Clint Capela has been worth around 7.3 WAR per season.  Jaylen Brown has been worth around 6.3 WAR per season with a peak of 8.9 WAR in '21-'22.  Boggy has been worth around 5.7 WAR per season over the past 3 years.  

[kg01]

22 minutes ago, ShooterSays said:

If they couldn’t make the playoffs with Dame, they’re certainly not going to make the playoffs without him and with a rookie PG and Siakam.

TOR is irrationally high on Barnes.  Their moves seem to prove that out. 

[Final_quest]

13 minutes ago, ShooterSays said:

If they couldn’t make the playoffs with Dame, they’re certainly not going to make the playoffs without him and with a rookie PG and Siakam.

Maybe they plan to flip Siakam at the trade deadline or even look at a sign and trade next offseason.  These teams might not be willing to throw more first round picks into this deal, but they know they can flip Siakam for the assets they really want down the line.

[REHawksFan]

23 minutes ago, JayBirdHawk said:

First, it was we can't go past the LT....now it's the 2nd Apron. We will forever operate as sisters of the poor, and this is not me saying to do this deal or not, but at some point we have to get past this mental block regarding team salary and always using it as a crutch.

The strictest of the 2nd Apron rules kick in where a team is above the 2nd Apron for 3 consecutive years (if what I read is correct).

Firstly, I've never once said we can't or shouldn't go into the LT.  Never. So don't lump me in with anyone that has said that.  Spend all that money, as far as I'm concerned. 

And secondly, I was just basing my opinion / argument on what I've heard on podcasts about the new CBA and the 2nd apron.  I haven't heard any distinction about the restrictions kicking in only after being over it for 3 straight years.  That would make me feel better if that's the case.  I just don't want to end up in a situation where they aren't allowed to make trades or sign FAs or they lose picks because they are over that 2nd apron.  

Regarding this deal (or any deal), my biggest point is that I'd prefer to trade from our already high priced (relatively speaking) players than trade from our stash of cheap priced players.  And that's not to be cheap but rather to take advantage of the longer runway we have with the younger players. 

Edited July 5, 2023 by REHawksFan

[ShooterSays]

If you see rumors start coming out linking Boston to Dame...it probably means a trade is imminent. 

Remember...JB was not happy when he was linked to a KD trade. If he's linked to another trade, I could see him demanding out. Boston has every reason to keep this one quiet.

[KB21]

 

[KB21]

[Packfill]

47 minutes ago, ShooterSays said:

If they couldn’t make the playoffs with Dame, they’re certainly not going to make the playoffs without him and with a rookie PG and Siakam.

If that trade were to go down you have to imagine that Portland's plan would be to flip Siakam and likely Grant at the deadline.  

[KB21]

I do understand why some don't want to let go of the young players on the roster, but I also understand the likelihood that any of them become a Jaylen Brown level player is probably less than 50%.  AJ Griffin would be the one I'd bet on.  

[JeffS17]

26 minutes ago, REHawksFan said:

Firstly, I've never once said we can't or shouldn't go into the LT.  Never. So don't lump me in with anyone that has said that.  Spend all that money, as far as I'm concerned. 

And secondly, I was just basing my opinion / argument on what I've heard on podcasts about the new CBA and the 2nd apron.  I haven't heard any distinction about the restrictions kicking in only after being over it for 3 straight years.  That would make me feel better if that's the case.  I just don't want to end up in a situation where they aren't allowed to make trades or sign FAs or they lose picks because they are over that 2nd apron.  

Regarding this deal (or any deal), my biggest point is that I'd prefer to trade from our already high priced (relatively speaking) players than trade from our stash of cheap priced players.  And that's not to be cheap but rather to take advantage of the longer runway we have with the younger players. 

The ramifications of going over the second apron are real and instant:

• Cannot use mid-level exception
• Cannot aggregate salaries in a trade (takes effect next year)
• Cannot SnT a player (takes effect next year)
• Cannot send cash out in a deal
• First round pick seven years out is frozen and cannot be traded (this one doesn't take effect until next year)
  • This is the one where you can "unfreeze" the pick to be traded if you are under the apron in 3 of the next 4 years (which means the pick will be frozen for a minimum of three years)
  • If the pick is not unfrozen as described as above, it will move to the back of the first round (30th)

I bolded the relevant pieces for teams that want to go into the tax temporarily as they are very real obstacles.  You are very limited in roster moves you can make and you don't get your MLE.  The new CBA makes it virtually impossible to just live above the second apron without selling your future entirely.

[bleachkit]

20 minutes ago, KB21 said:

I do understand why some don't want to let go of the young players on the roster, but I also understand the likelihood that any of them become a Jaylen Brown level player is probably less than 50%.  AJ Griffin would be the one I'd bet on.  

Less than 50%? Try less than 10%. 

[marco102]

2 minutes ago, bleachkit said:

Less than 50%? Try less than 10%. 

So you are for trading young assets away just to get a big name that may not move the needle either way.

[bleachkit]

Just now, marco102 said:

So you are for trading young assets away just to get a big name that may not move the needle either way.

Generally speaking, I am not. At least not for Siakam. I want to see the young guys develop. But I am just saying based purely on odds, few drafted players go on to reach Jaylen Brown's level. Of course that's not the end all be all of these decisions. You have to consider contract, fit, depth, etc. 

[NBASupes]

1 hour ago, JayBirdHawk said:

....and then we trade him after 1 season. Right right right.

If you want the truth, he hasn't been offered without any guarantees and last I've heard which was recent, they want Murray to resign. 

[NBASupes]

1 hour ago, kg01 said:

TOR is irrationally high on Barnes.  Their moves seem to prove that out. 

Not just that but Barnes didn't get along with FVV or Siakam and OG likes Pascal but he's told Toronto, he wants to be a #1 scoring option and feels he can handle it and based on what I've heard, Toronto isn't that far behind in that belief. The issue of course is this is still Pascal team.

[JayBirdHawk]

2 minutes ago, NBASupes said:

Not just that but Barnes didn't get along with FVV or Siakam and OG likes Pascal but he's told Toronto, he wants to be a #1 scoring option and feels he can handle it and based on what I've heard, Toronto isn't that far behind in that belief. The issue of course is this is still Pascal team.

Saw this bit yesterday on the Raps turmoil:

Sources have described a team where the veterans — VanVleet and Siakam especially — were deeply frustrated with the younger players on the roster and VanVleet let them know about it, something the younger set didn’t appreciate at all. Nurse wasn’t able to bridge the divide as key players kept getting hurt and open three after open three drew only iron.

The losing made everything worse.

Subsequently, the 2022-23 tale of woe began to play out in ways that most remember but would prefer to forget: consecutive beatdowns at the hands of the New Orleans Pelicans and Brooklyn Nets on the road signalled a malaise that was urgent enough that Ujiri had to address the team personally and second-year star Scottie Barnes specifically. It was the first of a number of times that Ujiri felt the need to make his feelings known about the way the team was playing and individuals were performing.

He did it again in the weeks before the February trade deadline, laying into the team for selfish play and poor body language. The message: straighten up or be shipped out.

Things were tense enough that Nurse was planning his exit even then, believing he would be fired. He may well have welcomed it.

[RedDawg#8]

The whole point of the rebuild was to find a franchise player and collect assets needed to go big game hunting. I love our young guys as much as anyone, and their potential is immense, but if we have learned nothing from the JC trade, we have to be willing to “sell high” on some of these guys. If we wait 2 years just to find out they aren’t who we hoped they would be we end up right back where we are trying to make moves with teams that don’t want what we have.

I’m not saying get robbed blind, but Trae’s window is now. No team wins a championship with the amount of youth we have. It’ll be at least 4 years before most of these kids are ready to contribute to a championship team. And typically, you can only have one or two young guys in your rotation if you want to win big.

We don’t just need “stars”, we need veteran leadership. We need experience. And not just the Vince Carter, Solomon Hill kind that does it from the bench. We need these “aging” guys who aren’t even 30 that can do it on the court today.

And news flash, we are already over the cap with a bunch of young guys who haven’t been extended. If OO, JJ, and AJ all become who people hope they can be, they are going to be worth 25-30+ million a year too. We are going to have to pay people regardless. That part is unavoidable. 

If we want to watch a young team develop and be fun/exciting, without any hope to win big, then let’s trade Trae and start everything over now. Otherwise, it’s time to play for keeps and make tough, risky, champions building decisions.

[JayBirdHawk]

12 hours ago, theheroatl said:

I still believe there is a standing offer of Capela Hunter and a FRP. It just have to be accepted or Capela sent somewhere else for a FRP.

I still think this is the deal for Siakam with Capela to Houston or OKC.