John Collins Traded - Fare thee well!

[AHF]

2 hours ago, macdaddy said:

The efficiency is a function of the volume though.  always has been.  He's great at only taking shots he's really good at making.  That doesn't mean he could score more at the same efficiency.  

I don't think it is a pure function of volume.  For example, I'll give you a couple of young power forwards with very similar minutes per game and shots per minute.

JC as a rookie took 11.0 FGA/36 in 24 mpg. 

Siakam in his second year took 10.7 FGA/36 in 20 mpg.  

Josh Smith as a rookie took 10.6 FGA/36 in 27 mpg.

Patrick Williams in his third year took 10.5 FGA/36 in 28 mpg.

 

That is pretty similar volume on a per minute basis and similar overall minutes.  But their TS%s are very different.

JC .620% TS%

Siakam .549% TS%

Josh .506% TS%

PW .576% TS%

Why is JC so much better?  Because JC is a better shooter on those attempts.  Even with very similar volumes, the results are very different.  You can then move on to ask why he shoots so much better on similar volumes but you can't pin it on volume.

 

Now you can make a better case for the volume thing when Siakam becomes the first option in his fourth season and goes up to 19 FGA/36 if you are comparing to JC's when JC's shots dropped after CC arrived but it doesn't really apply while all these guys are taking 10-11 FGA/36.  In that context, it is, imo, a mix of shot selection and shooting accuracy but it isn't volume at all.  JC has traditionally done a good job of not taking bad shots (see Smith, Josh).  He has done a good job shooting accurately.  Those things are not necessarily tied to volume since we see people struggle with both of those at similar volumes to JC's FGA/minute.

The fact that he isn't asked to scale up on volume and push himself into taking more "bad" shots definitely helps his efficiency but I think his efficiency goes beyond that and we saw that in his second year when he pushed his FGA/36 up to 16.4 from his rookie 11.0 and actually improved his scoring efficiency to .627% TS%.  Bear in mind that this 16.4 FGA/36 shot rate is very comparable to Siakam's 2021-22 season where he ended up at 16.9 FGA/36 with a .565% TS%.  The difference is not volume but is a function of role, shot selection, and shot accuracy.  (Example:  John Collins has a better career FT% than Siakam, Josh, and Patrick and obviously that isn't much about anything other than shot accuracy.)

Anyway, I'm just giving my $.02 for why I think JC's TS% would have been significantly better in Atlanta in a higher volume role where CC was replaced by Brook Lopez or someone similar where JC could have done more of a continuation of his back to back 20 PPG seasons and making the case that JC is legit efficient as a scorer even if he is limited in his inability to assume a first scoring option role.

[macdaddy]

23 minutes ago, AHF said:

I don't think it is a pure function of volume.  For example, I'll give you a couple of young power forwards with very similar minutes per game and shots per minute.

JC as a rookie took 11.0 FGA/36 in 24 mpg. 

Siakam in his second year took 10.7 FGA/36 in 20 mpg.  

Josh Smith as a rookie took 10.6 FGA/36 in 27 mpg.

Patrick Williams in his third year took 10.5 FGA/36 in 28 mpg.

 

That is pretty similar volume on a per minute basis and similar overall minutes.  But their TS%s are very different.

JC .620% TS%

Siakam .549% TS%

Josh .506% TS%

PW .576% TS%

Why is JC so much better?  Because JC is a better shooter on those attempts.  Even with very similar volumes, the results are very different.  You can then move on to ask why he shoots so much better on similar volumes but you can't pin it on volume.

 

Now you can make a better case for the volume thing when Siakam becomes the first option in his fourth season and goes up to 19 FGA/36 if you are comparing to JC's when JC's shots dropped after CC arrived but it doesn't really apply while all these guys are taking 10-11 FGA/36.  In that context, it is, imo, a mix of shot selection and shooting accuracy but it isn't volume at all.  JC has traditionally done a good job of not taking bad shots (see Smith, Josh).  He has done a good job shooting accurately.  Those things are not necessarily tied to volume since we see people struggle with both of those at similar volumes to JC's FGA/minute.

The fact that he isn't asked to scale up on volume and push himself into taking more "bad" shots definitely helps his efficiency but I think his efficiency goes beyond that and we saw that in his second year when he pushed his FGA/36 up to 16.4 from his rookie 11.0 and actually improved his scoring efficiency to .627% TS%.  Bear in mind that this 16.4 FGA/36 shot rate is very comparable to Siakam's 2021-22 season where he ended up at 16.9 FGA/36 with a .565% TS%.  The difference is not volume but is a function of role, shot selection, and shot accuracy.  (Example:  John Collins has a better career FT% than Siakam, Josh, and Patrick and obviously that isn't much about anything other than shot accuracy.)

Anyway, I'm just giving my $.02 for why I think JC's TS% would have been significantly better in Atlanta in a higher volume role where CC was replaced by Brook Lopez or someone similar where JC could have done more of a continuation of his back to back 20 PPG seasons and making the case that JC is legit efficient as a scorer even if he is limited in his inability to assume a first scoring option role.

That makes sense but there are a lot of unknowns.  His high scoring season was really half a season though and his competition in the front court was slim so he had his career high in minutes and played a lot of small ball center (at least i believe that!)

I'm just thinking another explanation is those highly productive seasons were Trae's first two years where we lost a lot of games but Trae was getting to the lane and lobbing like crazy.   The league started to take that away. (there may be numbers to dispute this i don't know).   So I still don't see a return to the salad days for JC even if Capela was gone.  

[AHF]

17 minutes ago, macdaddy said:

That makes sense but there are a lot of unknowns.  His high scoring season was really half a season though and his competition in the front court was slim so he had his career high in minutes and played a lot of small ball center (at least i believe that!)

I'm just thinking another explanation is those highly productive seasons were Trae's first two years where we lost a lot of games but Trae was getting to the lane and lobbing like crazy.   The league started to take that away. (there may be numbers to dispute this i don't know).   So I still don't see a return to the salad days for JC even if Capela was gone.  

I think it is fair to ask how productive JC would be as a scorer without Capela but one way I look at that is to look at the games JC played without Capela before his role really transformed into largely sitting on the perimeter:  

In the 2020-21 season, JC averaged 19.1 PPG in games without Capela.  (I'm ignoring the 15 points he scored in 16 minutes in the season finale since none of the starters played in the second half but he was clearly on pace to push that to a 20+ PPG average had he played his normal time.)  That is very much on par in my mind with the 19.5 points and 21.6 points he scored the two seasons before.

So maybe he couldn't score in that 19-21 PPG range ever again but I think the big scoring decline was less about how teams defended the lob play and more about how often JC was running the lob play.  I see the huge change in the shots JC took as more about Capela given how many lobs Capela continued to get:

(Obviously, JC was crippled post-injury in the last two seasons so I don't take much from last year's numbers as I'm working off a baseline of a healthy JC.)

 

[thecampster]

1 hour ago, AHF said:

I don't think it is a pure function of volume.  For example, I'll give you a couple of young power forwards with very similar minutes per game and shots per minute.

JC as a rookie took 11.0 FGA/36 in 24 mpg. 

Siakam in his second year took 10.7 FGA/36 in 20 mpg.  

Josh Smith as a rookie took 10.6 FGA/36 in 27 mpg.

Patrick Williams in his third year took 10.5 FGA/36 in 28 mpg.

 

That is pretty similar volume on a per minute basis and similar overall minutes.  But their TS%s are very different.

JC .620% TS%

Siakam .549% TS%

Josh .506% TS%

PW .576% TS%

Why is JC so much better?  Because JC is a better shooter on those attempts.  Even with very similar volumes, the results are very different.  You can then move on to ask why he shoots so much better on similar volumes but you can't pin it on volume.

 

Now you can make a better case for the volume thing when Siakam becomes the first option in his fourth season and goes up to 19 FGA/36 if you are comparing to JC's when JC's shots dropped after CC arrived but it doesn't really apply while all these guys are taking 10-11 FGA/36.  In that context, it is, imo, a mix of shot selection and shooting accuracy but it isn't volume at all.  JC has traditionally done a good job of not taking bad shots (see Smith, Josh).  He has done a good job shooting accurately.  Those things are not necessarily tied to volume since we see people struggle with both of those at similar volumes to JC's FGA/minute.

The fact that he isn't asked to scale up on volume and push himself into taking more "bad" shots definitely helps his efficiency but I think his efficiency goes beyond that and we saw that in his second year when he pushed his FGA/36 up to 16.4 from his rookie 11.0 and actually improved his scoring efficiency to .627% TS%.  Bear in mind that this 16.4 FGA/36 shot rate is very comparable to Siakam's 2021-22 season where he ended up at 16.9 FGA/36 with a .565% TS%.  The difference is not volume but is a function of role, shot selection, and shot accuracy.  (Example:  John Collins has a better career FT% than Siakam, Josh, and Patrick and obviously that isn't much about anything other than shot accuracy.)

Anyway, I'm just giving my $.02 for why I think JC's TS% would have been significantly better in Atlanta in a higher volume role where CC was replaced by Brook Lopez or someone similar where JC could have done more of a continuation of his back to back 20 PPG seasons and making the case that JC is legit efficient as a scorer even if he is limited in his inability to assume a first scoring option role.

As a rookie a large portion of his shot attempts were dunks.  He was a primary in the pick n roll game.  Clint took that role limiting his shot availability.  But JC's TS% was a direct result of many dunk/layup opportunities.

[thecampster]

JC shot chart his rookie year

 

Shot chart last season -  notice all the 3's.

 

 

[thecampster]

Comparison's

JJ's shot chart last 3 years.

 

Clint's shot chart last 3 years

 

Bey shot chart last 3 years

 

DH shot chart last 3 years

[JeffS17]

I think Collins is a championship piece IF his next contract is more suited to his ability.  He has the mindset and puts in the work.  If he gets on a team where his primary focus is defense, rebounding, and the occasional PnR man (and maybe spot up 3s if he fixes his shot), I think he has the intangibles you want in a role player starter.  I wish him the best of luck -- he was one of my favorite players to cheer for.

[AHF]

16 hours ago, thecampster said:

As a rookie a large portion of his shot attempts were dunks.  He was a primary in the pick n roll game.  Clint took that role limiting his shot availability.  But JC's TS% was a direct result of many dunk/layup opportunities.

Shot selection and volume are two different things.  If you can ramp up the number of dunks and layups, taking all dunks is not only not bad but is probably the absolute ideal outcome on offense.  It is why Shaq was so effective on offense despite being limited in what he could do other than dunk.

My point was that JC did ramp up effectively in volume and maintain his scoring efficiency including as he added more jumpers into his game in years two and three and then what limited his offense more than defenses adjusting was CC taking that role as the roll man.  As I stated above, I think JC could have been much more productive on offense the last couple years if he had been paired with Brook Lopez rather than CC.  (Granting that the finger injury would have hurt him regardless.)

[JeffS17]

44 minutes ago, AHF said:

Shot selection and volume are two different things.  If you can ramp up the number of dunks and layups, taking all dunks is not only not bad but is probably the absolute ideal outcome on offense.  It is why Shaq was so effective on offense despite being limited in what he could do other than dunk.

My point was that JC did ramp up effectively in volume and maintain his scoring efficiency including as he added more jumpers into his game in years two and three and then what limited his offense more than defenses adjusting was CC taking that role as the roll man.  As I stated above, I think JC could have been much more productive on offense the last couple years if he had been paired with Brook Lopez rather than CC.  (Granting that the finger injury would have hurt him regardless.)

All the discussion around CC overlapping with JC doesn't change the fact it's really Trae generating a majority of these points.  Sure, he needs someone that is tall and can jump and dunk, but those guys are not rare in the NBA.  Look at a guy like Gobert, who has played pretty much exclusively with PGs who struggle throwing lobs and managing the PnR.  He's much worse because of it.  He doesn't have the best hands but he hasn't had good PGs that can finesse lobs either.  He would feast playing with Trae, as did JC, as does CC, as will anyone that is tall and can jump and dunk.  

And a lot of JCs efficiency was Trae getting him open looks from three as well when his 3 ball was falling.  I think there's a really good reason no GMs wanted to spend anything to acquire JC and it's because they watched film and see who he is as a player-- a PF that has been very reliant on PGs (mostly Trae but it was Schröder in his rookie year) to get him lobs and easy looks around the basket.  And to utilize his skillset, he pretty much has to play with a stretch big, or he needs to be playing as a center, both of which severely cripple the teams defense.

I expect his volume and efficiency to go down in Utah

[AHF]

1 hour ago, JeffS17 said:

All the discussion around CC overlapping with JC doesn't change the fact it's really Trae generating a majority of these points.  Sure, he needs someone that is tall and can jump and dunk, but those guys are not rare in the NBA.  Look at a guy like Gobert, who has played pretty much exclusively with PGs who struggle throwing lobs and managing the PnR.  He's much worse because of it.  He doesn't have the best hands but he hasn't had good PGs that can finesse lobs either.  He would feast playing with Trae, as did JC, as does CC, as will anyone that is tall and can jump and dunk.  

And a lot of JCs efficiency was Trae getting him open looks from three as well when his 3 ball was falling.  I think there's a really good reason no GMs wanted to spend anything to acquire JC and it's because they watched film and see who he is as a player-- a PF that has been very reliant on PGs (mostly Trae but it was Schröder in his rookie year) to get him lobs and easy looks around the basket.  And to utilize his skillset, he pretty much has to play with a stretch big, or he needs to be playing as a center, both of which severely cripple the teams defense.

I expect his volume and efficiency to go down in Utah

I'm looking forward to seeing how he does in Utah for a variety of reasons.  As noted above, JC was strong when Trae wasn't there during JC's rookie season.  I think Trae absolutely enhanced JC's rim running opportunities but JC was also quite good at that regardless.  During JC's best scoring season, he had some of his biggest games when Trae wasn't there like:

34 point outing against Chicago

https://www.basketball-reference.com/boxscores/201912280CHI.html

33 point outing against LAC

https://www.basketball-reference.com/boxscores/202001220ATL.html

30 point outing against BOS

https://www.basketball-reference.com/boxscores/202002070BOS.html

26 point outing against the Wizards

https://www.basketball-reference.com/boxscores/202003060WAS.html

Now we don't have a huge sample size of games without Trae because Trae has been fantastically durable.  And that is a great thing about Trae.  But I've seen enough that I'm not convinced that JC couldn't be efficient without Trae if he was the primary rim runner on another team.  (Especially given that dropoff that season between Trae and his backup was much bigger than it would be between Trae and another team's starting PG.  That season broken down Teague played 25 games; Evan Fing Turner played 19 games; and Brandon Goodwin played 34 games as the primary backups for Trae.  Puke.)

I have big questions about what JC's role and shot selection will look like for Utah as well as his minutes in that frontcourt so I am also not expecting him to blow up or anything but I'm very interested to see.

[thecampster]

37 minutes ago, AHF said:

I'm looking forward to seeing how he does in Utah for a variety of reasons.  As noted above, JC was strong when Trae wasn't there during JC's rookie season.  I think Trae absolutely enhanced JC's rim running opportunities but JC was also quite good at that regardless.  During JC's best scoring season, he had some of his biggest games when Trae wasn't there like:

34 point outing against Chicago

https://www.basketball-reference.com/boxscores/201912280CHI.html

33 point outing against LAC

https://www.basketball-reference.com/boxscores/202001220ATL.html

30 point outing against BOS

https://www.basketball-reference.com/boxscores/202002070BOS.html

26 point outing against the Wizards

https://www.basketball-reference.com/boxscores/202003060WAS.html

Now we don't have a huge sample size of games without Trae because Trae has been fantastically durable.  And that is a great thing about Trae.  But I've seen enough that I'm not convinced that JC couldn't be efficient without Trae if he was the primary rim runner on another team.  (Especially given that dropoff that season between Trae and his backup was much bigger than it would be between Trae and another team's starting PG.  That season broken down Teague played 25 games; Evan Fing Turner played 19 games; and Brandon Goodwin played 34 games as the primary backups for Trae.  Puke.)

I have big questions about what JC's role and shot selection will look like for Utah as well as his minutes in that frontcourt so I am also not expecting him to blow up or anything but I'm very interested to see.

JC is neither Batman, nor Robin. He's Alfred. He's gentlemanly and at his best when all the attention is on those 2.

 

My problem with JC is how much standing around he did. Some of it was by design but in the last couple of years he would check out early if it was becoming the Trae Young show in a game.  He was rarely engaged defensively like he was season 2/3. He was very bad at giving help when help is what our guards needed. I think with JC, you can lessen the expectations for him in Utah. What he gave the Hawks last year was still top 20 for a PF (barely). If Utah gets that, and he's splitting time at center, they become very good and have a very big lineup.  If he ends up coming off the bench, that's going to be a bad look.

[AHF]

1 hour ago, thecampster said:

JC is neither Batman, nor Robin. He's Alfred. He's gentlemanly and at his best when all the attention is on those 2.

 

My problem with JC is how much standing around he did. Some of it was by design but in the last couple of years he would check out early if it was becoming the Trae Young show in a game.  He was rarely engaged defensively like he was season 2/3. He was very bad at giving help when help is what our guards needed. I think with JC, you can lessen the expectations for him in Utah. What he gave the Hawks last year was still top 20 for a PF (barely). If Utah gets that, and he's splitting time at center, they become very good and have a very big lineup.  If he ends up coming off the bench, that's going to be a bad look.

I feel like he went from a 20/10 guy excited about where things were going to someone who was basically told on offense to stand outside and function as an outlet shooter while Trae and Clint ran the pick and roll.  I didn't see the same degree of degradation on defense you did (actually think he improved in some respects there after CC's arrival) but I am sure he felt marginalized and that it led to him disengaging and disappearing at times the last year or two.  It will be interesting because I've got lots of questions for how he fits in Utah.  (Like, a lineup with him at center and with Lauri at PF is not real big and strong. That could struggle on the boards and with rim protection, etc.)

[Plainview1981]

John Collins was a good player. I don't see him being a 20/10 player on a really good team. We will find out soon if he was held back or if he simply peaked early.

[AHF]

On 9/23/2023 at 7:52 AM, Plainview1981 said:

I don't see him being a 20/10 player on a really good team. 

Me either but I do think his scoring (at least per minute) should be way better if he is a team's primary roll man versus with him basically in a clean up / outlet role.

[Gray Mule]

Get ready for it.  JC's star will shine bightly when this upcoming season opens.  

[JayBirdHawk]

Anybody catch JC's debut with the Jazz? Checking the boxscore, saw they won.

JC had 5 points [2-3 (1-1 from 3)], 4 rebs in 18 minutes.

How are they using him?

[TheNorthCydeRises]

7 minutes ago, JayBirdHawk said:

Anybody catch JC's debut with the  Jazz? Checking the boxscore, saw they won.

JC had 5 points [2-3 (1-1 from 3)], 4 rebs in 18 minutes.

How are they using him?

At the 3.

LOL ... not really, but with Lauri and Kessler on the floor with him, he looked Hella small next to them.

Maybe Utah will try to be Cleveand West. 

[JayBirdHawk]

29 minutes ago, TheNorthCydeRises said:

At the 3.

LOL ... not really, but with Lauri and Kessler on the floor with him, he looked Hella small next to them.

Maybe Utah will try to be Cleveand West. 

Oh, he started at the 3? Interesting.

[Atlantaholic]

JC was a great player for the Hawks up until last year. Not sure what happened but he was really a shell of the player he had been even post-Capella. At his best, he was just as valuable as other recent Hawks semi-star PFs like Milsap and J-Smoove. I hope a change of scenery can spark him to regain his game because at the level he was playing last season, he is gonna end up being one of the guys that just bounces around a bunch to end his career. He obviously isn't happy about how management handled him in Atlanta and that is his right to feel that way. I don't find it offensive or wrong personally. 

[AHF]

38 minutes ago, Atlantaholic said:

JC was a great player for the Hawks up until last year. Not sure what happened but he was really a shell of the player he had been even post-Capella. At his best, he was just as valuable as other recent Hawks semi-star PFs like Milsap and J-Smoove. I hope a change of scenery can spark him to regain his game because at the level he was playing last season, he is gonna end up being one of the guys that just bounces around a bunch to end his career. He obviously isn't happy about how management handled him in Atlanta and that is his right to feel that way. I don't find it offensive or wrong personally. 

This happened.